Beeter has had as many elbow operations as quality starts (two) in college, yet he pitched so well this spring that some scouts think he belongs in the first round. He blew out his elbow during fall practice before what would have been his first season at Texas Tech, having Tommy John surgery in December 2017 and an arthroscopic procedure seven months later. He led the Red Raiders' 2019 College World Series semifinalists with eight saves as a redshirt freshman, then really opened eyes with nearly twice as many strikeouts (33) as baserunners (18) in 21 innings in 2020.
Beeter added rather than lost velocity as he worked longer stints this year, sitting at 93-96 mph and peaking at 98 with his fastball. He has a pair of power breaking balls, a wipeout curveball in the low 80s and a slider in the mid-80s that some evaluators believe is even better. He even flashes at least a solid changeup, though he doesn't turn to his fourth option very often.
Employing an overhand delivery that creates deception and steep downhill plane, Beeter tunnels his pitches extremely well. Scouts can't figure out how he went from averaging 8.7 walks per nine innings as a reliever to 1.7 as a starter without any significant mechanical changes. His lack of track record is worrisome but it's hard to argue with the quality stuff and strikes he unleashed this spring.
Beeter was so dominant at Texas Tech during the shortened 2020 season that some scouts believed he had the best stuff of any college starter in the Draft. He also came with a long medical history (Tommy John surgery in December 2017 before his first college season, a follow-up arthroscopic procedure seven months later) and limited track record, so he lasted until the Dodgers took him in the supplemental second round and signed him for an over-slot $1,196,500. Traded to the Yankees for Joey Gallo in August 2022, he earned Double-A Eastern League all-star honors, pitched a career-high 131 2/3 innings and claimed spots in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game and on New York's 40-man roster in his first full year in his new organization.
While Beeter's stuff cooled off a bit in 2023, he still can show flashes of three plus pitches. His best offering is an 82-86 mph slider with two-plane depth that hitters can't barrel or lay off, and he now favors it heavily over a 78-82 mph curveball with similar shape that he can't land for strikes. His fastball sits at 92-94 mph and peaks at 97 with more carry up in the zone than true life, and it can get tagged when he doesn't command it.
Beeter's mid-80s changeup is too firm and he barely uses it, making him primarily a two-pitch guy. He worked deeper into games last year and made some mild progress throwing strikes, increasing his chances of remaining a starter. He still has below-average control and command, however, so he might have more success focusing on his fastball and slider in a relief role.
Beeter dominated in four outings for Texas Tech during the shortened 2020 season and some scouts thought he had the best stuff of any college starter in the Draft, but he dropped to the Dodgers in supplemental second round because his medical history was longer than his track record. He had Tommy John surgery in December 2017 before his first college season and a follow-up arthroscopic elbow procedure seven months later. Los Angeles signed him for an over-slot $1,196,500 and handled him with extreme care, letting him work as many as four innings just four times in 43 starts before dealing him to the Yankees for Joey Gallo last August.
The Dodgers initially had Beeter shelve his slider to focus on his curveball, but his mid-80s slide piece was his best pitch in 2022, a well above-average offering generating a 53 percent swing-and-miss rate thanks to its combination of velocity and two-plane depth. His fastball also can be dominant, sitting at 93-96 mph and reaching 98 mph with nice carry up in the zone, as well as some armside run. His low-80s downer curveball can be a plus pitch at times but isn't as reliable as his slider, and his low-80s changeup has regressed because he barely uses it.
His high arm slot creates downhill plane and deception, and his ability to tunnel his pitches makes him even harder to hit. No Minor League pitcher who worked as many innings (77) as Beeter had as high a strikeout rate (15.1 per nine innings) in 2022, but he has yet to prove he can handle a starter's workload or provide consistent strikes. He looks like more of a reliever and has the stuff to become a high-leverage option if he improves his control.
Beeter showcased stuff arguably as good as any college starter in the 2020 Draft, but the Dodgers were able to grab him in the supplemental second round because his medical record was more extensive than his track record. He had Tommy John surgery in December 2017 before his first season at Texas Tech and a follow-up arthroscopic elbow procedure seven months later before leading the Red Raiders' 2019 College World Series semifinalists with eight saves and dominating in four starts as a redshirt sophomore. Los Angeles signed him for an over-slot $1,196,500 and handled him with great care before trading him to the Yankees for Joey Gallo this August.
Beeter has a pair of pitches that grade as well above-average when at their best. He sits at 93-96 mph and touches 98 mph with a fastball that has good carry, and a high-spin low-80s curveball that plays off his heater well by dropping through the bottom of the zone. He also had a plus mid-80s slider that the Dodgers had him shelve in order to focus on his curve, and he can flash a solid low-80s changeup with some sink and fade but doesn't use it very often.
Using an overhand slot that creates deception and downhill plane, Beeter tunnels all of his pitches well. With the exception of the shortened 2020 college season, he has exhibited fringy control at best, and his delivery may not be conducive to throwing more strikes. If he can't make it as a starter, he has the stuff to become a high-leverage reliever.
Some scouts who saw Beeter during the brief 2020 college season thought his stuff was as good as any in the Draft, but he lasted until the supplemental second round because of his medical history and lack of track record. He had Tommy John surgery in December 2017 before his first season at Texas Tech and a follow-up arthroscopic elbow procedure seven months later. After leading the Red Raiders' 2019 College World Series semifinalists with eight saves, he exploded as a starter last spring by recording nearly twice as many strikeouts (33) as baserunners allowed (18) in 21 innings.
Beeter's pitches and control actually got better when he worked longer outings last year, though he was inconsistent at Los Angeles' alternate site and during instructional league after signing for an over-slot $1,196,500. Dodgers big league hitters said he was as good as any pitcher at their alt site when he was on. His fastball can park at 93-96 mph and reach 98 with good carry though the top of the strike zone, his high-spin low-80s curveball can be an absolute hammer and the organization has had him shelve his mid-80s slider for now to focus on his other pitches.
Beeter also shows flashes of a solid changeup with some sink and fade, and he tunnels all his pitches well with an overhand delivery that creates deception and downhill plane. Without making any significant mechanical changes, he reduced his walk rate from 8.7 per nine innings as a reliever in 2019 to 1.7 as a starter last year. If he proves he can maintain his wipeout stuff and his improved control over a long season, he could be the steal of the 2020 Draft.
Some scouts thought Beeter's stuff compared favorably to anyone's in the 2020 Draft, but the Dodgers were able to grab him in the supplemental second round because of his medical history and lack of track record. He blew out his elbow during fall practice before what would have been his first season at Texas Tech, requiring Tommy John surgery in December 2017 and an arthroscopic procedure seven months later. He topped the Red Raiders' 2019 College World Series semifinalists with eight saves as a redshirt freshman, then really opened eyes by posting nearly twice as many strikeouts (33) as baserunners allowed (18) in 21 innings this spring.
Beeter's pitches actually became more overpowering as he worked longer stints in 2020, with his fastball operating at 93-96 mph and peaking at 98. Some evaluators thought his high-spin curveball was the best curve in the Draft, while others though his mid-80s slider was even better. He also flashes at least a solid changeup, though he doesn't need his fourth option very often.
Signed for an over-slot $1,196,500 as the 66th overall choice, Beeter tunnels his offerings extremely well with an overhand delivery that creates deception and steep downhill plane. Without any significant mechanical changes, he cut his walk rate from 8.7 walks per nine innings as a reliever to 1.7 as a starter. If he keeps pitching like he did during the brief 2020 college season, he could be the steal of the Draft.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
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