P | St. Louis Cardinals
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 4" 180 lbs | Age: 31
Draft: 2017 | Rd. 8, No. 229, Tampa Bay Rays | College of Idaho
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 0 0 11.25 8 0 0 8 11 2.63
2025 3 1 2.06 42 0 6 48 45 1.15
2026 3 1 3.13 23 0 13 23 25 1.00
5 Seasons 6 3 3.43 75 1 19 81.1 84 1.30
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 8 0-0 11.25 8 11 2.63
2025 42 3-1 2.06 48 45 1.15
2026 23 3-1 3.13 23 25 1.00
5 Seasons 75 6-3 3.43 81.1 84 1.30
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
?

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 26 42 4 2 50.0 22.2 88.8 111.5 -9.5 50.0 .333 1.100 .676 .624 .885 50.0 22.2 33.3 13.50 28.84
2022 27 23 3 0 0.0 0.0 98.5 105.1 -23.0 0.0 .136 .136 .315 .240 .170 66.7 20.0 20.0 0.00 2.31
2024 29 194 26 2 7.7 4.3 89.0 112.3 17.7 42.3 .282 .428 .467 .383 .437 42.3 23.9 17.4 11.25 6.35
2025 30 758 125 4 3.2 2.0 85.8 108.8 4.8 27.2 .233 .306 .270 .297 .318 34.4 22.6 11.1 2.06 3.64
2026 31 359 59 2 3.4 2.2 87.5 107.7 0.2 27.1 .230 .326 .276 .282 .342 40.7 27.2 3.3 3.13 3.12
Player 1376 217 10 4.6 2.8 86.9 112.3 4.5 29.0 .239 .340 .309 .312 .348 37.8 23.9 10.5
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .408 .315 .316 .369 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

O'Brien relies on 4 pitches.
Sinker
(57.9%) ,
Sweeper
(29.2%) ,
Slider
(12.3%) ,
Changeup
(0.6%) ,


  •   
  •   
  •   

+ If Available Pitches Click to Video.


  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   

Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2021 50.0 50.0 25.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 75.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 0.0
2022 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2024 38.5 61.5 30.8 23.1 7.7 61.5 26.9 11.5 30.8 7.7 0.0 30.8 19.2 11.5
2025 55.2 44.8 15.2 24.0 5.6 37.6 36.0 26.4 23.2 26.4 5.6 14.4 9.6 20.8
2026 59.3 40.7 16.9 23.7 0.0 44.1 37.3 18.6 30.5 22.0 6.8 13.6 15.3 11.9
Player 54.8 45.2 17.5 23.5 4.1 41.5 36.9 21.7 25.3 24.4 5.1 16.1 12.4 16.6
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.9 16.8 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 22.2
2022 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2024 0.0 26.9 26.9 34.6 3.8 7.7 4.3
2025 11.2 36.0 16.8 27.2 4.0 3.2 2.0
2026 8.5 47.5 11.9 20.3 8.5 3.4 2.2
Player 8.8 39.2 16.1 25.3 5.1 4.6 2.8
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Sinker STL R 208 98.4 23.6 3.2 17.0ARM 1.3 4.9 2.8 17.0ARM 1.6
2026 Slider STL R 44 91.5 27.7 -1.6 2.1GLV -1.3 4.9 -3.4 2.1GLV -2.0
2026 Changeup STL R 2 90.5 28.3 -2.0 17.9ARM 3.2 5.6 -1.6 17.9ARM 3.2
2026 Sweeper STL R 105 83.8 42.8 5.3 16.3GLV 2.4 -3.5 4.7 16.3GLV 2.4
2025 Changeup STL R 1 90.4 28.9 -1.0 16.5ARM 1.8 4.4 -0.3 16.5ARM 2.0
2025 Sinker STL R 366 98.0 22.3 1.6 15.9ARM 0.7 6.1 1.3 15.9ARM 0.8
2025 Slider STL R 230 90.1 30.2 -0.6 3.7GLV 0.1 3.2 -1.4 3.7GLV -0.6
2025 Sweeper STL R 161 83.4 41.8 3.7 16.7GLV 3.1 -2.3 3.2 16.7GLV 2.8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 Sinker 1.6 3 208 57.9 62 .305 .356 .313 20.7 17.7 21.2 .277 .383 .306 37.5
2026 Sweeper 1.1 1 105 29.2 19 .000 .000 .111 48.8 63.2 21.4 .071 .080 .166 25.0
2026 Slider -0.1 0 44 12.3 11 .222 .333 .323 23.8 18.2 15.4 .202 .390 .332 71.4
2026 Changeup -4.4 0 2 0.6 -- -- -- -- -- 0.0 -- -- -- --
2025 Sinker 1.6 6 366 48.3 108 .228 .272 .289 10.8 12.0 16.7 .287 .362 .346 34.2
2025 Slider 0.6 1 230 30.3 48 .238 .357 .288 29.6 27.1 28.9 .242 .321 .276 35.5
2025 Sweeper 1.0 2 161 21.2 40 .059 .176 .186 50.7 47.5 23.2 .081 .139 .184 33.3
2025 Changeup -4.1 0 1 0.1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Sinker 202 98.4 81 18.3 1:30 2:30 -60
2026 Slider 44 91.5 24 4.9 12:15 10:45 90
2026 Sweeper 104 83.8 67 18.1 8:00 8:30 -30
2025 Sinker 366 98.0 85 17.5 1:30 2:30 -60
2025 Slider 230 90.1 24 5.0 11:15 10:00 75
2025 Sweeper 161 83.4 67 18.2 8:00 8:30 -30
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
+ Show More Seasons
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
+ View Complete Spin Direction Leaderboard

Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
+ View Complete Arm Angle Leaderboard

Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 9 42 -2 0 0 0 -3
2022 5 23 0 0 0 0 0
2024 46 194 -2 -1 -2 -2 -7
2025 196 758 11 6 -4 -5 9
2026 92 359 7 2 -1 -3 4
Player 348 1,376 13 8 -7 13 4
+ View Complete Pitching Run Value Leaderboard
+ Show Leverage-Based Run Value

Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 42 33.3 71.4 90.0 28.6 25.0 33.3 66.7 42.9 38.9 4.8 50.0
2022 23 56.5 76.9 80.0 10.0 100.0 43.5 60.0 47.8 18.2 8.7 100.0
2024 194 43.8 62.4 79.2 22.0 58.3 36.1 45.7 39.7 27.3 8.8 82.4
2025 758 47.1 63.3 88.5 28.9 50.0 46.0 61.9 45.1 24.6 6.5 81.6
2026 359 46.5 68.3 82.5 31.8 52.5 37.6 70.7 48.7 28.0 7.2 80.8
Player 1,376 46.2 64.9 85.5 28.4 51.0 42.0 62.2 45.3 26.2 7.0 81.3
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.5 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2021
2022
2024 89 17 93
2025 95 24 90
2026 75 78 64 43 80 96 36 76 61 69 82 99 90 43 98 82
+ View Complete Percentile Rankings Leaderboard

Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2021 22.48 2 1.7 0 0 1 1 50.0
2024 25.68 2 2.0 0 0 1 1 50.0
2025 24.63 2 1.4 1 0 1 1 50.0
2026 22.85 1 2.7 -2 1 2 1 100.0
Player 24.06 7 7.8 -1 1 5 4 57.1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
+ View Standard Expected Home Runs

Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2021 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2
2024 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
2025 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
2026 1 3 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 4 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 2 3 3 1 2 3 4 2 2 2
Player 7 9 7 7 7 9 8 7 7 7 6 8 6 9 8 8 9 9 8 9 7 7 8 9 7 8 7 10 8 7 7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
+ View Standard Expected Home Runs By Park
+ View Complete Expected Home Runs Leaderboard

Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022 +/-   2021
Results
BA .238 +.042 .196 -.165 .361 -- -- -- -- -.083 .333
xBA .230 -.003 .233 -.049 .282 -- -- -- -- -.197 .333
OBP .304 -.009 .313 -.165 .478 -- -- -- -- -.156 .556
xOBP .297 -.049 .346 -.075 .421 -- -- -- -- -.247 .555
SLG .286 +.012 .274 -.365 .639 -- -- -- -- -1.083 1.333
xSLG .326 +.020 .306 -.122 .428 -- -- -- -- -.964 1.100
ISO .048 -.029 .077 -.201 .278 -- -- -- -- -1.000 1.000
xISO .096 +.023 .073 -.073 .146 -- -- -- -- -.766 .767
BABIP .328 +.074 .254 -.204 .458 -- -- -- -- +.333 .000
wOBA .276 +.006 .270 -.197 .467 -- -- -- -- -.361 .676
xwOBA .282 -.015 .297 -.086 .383 -- -- -- -- -.384 .624
wOBAcon .332 +.058 .274 -.313 .587 -- -- -- -- -.708 1.003
xwOBAcon .342 +.024 .318 -.119 .437 -- -- -- -- -.715 .885
BACON .339 +.073 .266 -.234 .500 -- -- -- -- -.167 .500
xBACON .327 +.009 .318 -.081 .399 -- -- -- -- -.319 .500
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 40.7 +6.3 34.4 -7.9 42.3 -- -- -- -- +16.7 50.0
Avg Exit Velocity 87.5 +1.7 85.8 -3.2 89.0 -- -- -- -- +9.7 88.8
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 27.1 -0.1 27.2 -15.1 42.3 -- -- -- -- -50.0 50.0
Barrel % 3.4 +0.2 3.2 -4.5 7.7 -- -- -- -- -50.0 50.0
Avg Launch Angle 0.2 -4.6 4.8 -12.9 17.7 -- -- -- -- -13.5 -9.5
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.1 +1.6 70.5 +1.1 69.4 -- -- -- -- -- --
Attack Angle 10° +1° +2° -- -- -- -- -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 50.0 +0.9 49.1 +15.2 33.9 -- -- -- -- -- --
Attack Direction -1° -- -- -- -- -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 33° +1° 33° -1° 33° -- -- -- -- -- --
Swing Length 7.3 +0.1 7.2 +0.2 7.0 -- -- -- -- -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 98.4 +0.4 98.0 +1.2 96.8 -- -- -- -- +0.5 91.9
Breaking Velocity 86.1 -1.2 87.3 +1.1 86.2 -- -- -- -- -1.0 79.1
Offspeed Velocity 90.5 +0.1 90.4 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 88.1
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 2 -2 4 +2 2 -- -- -- -- -2 2
Popup % 0.0 -5.6 5.6 -2.1 7.7 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Flyball % 16.9 +1.7 15.2 -15.6 30.8 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Line Drive % 23.7 -0.3 24.0 +0.9 23.1 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Groundball % 59.3 +4.1 55.2 +16.7 38.5 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Pull % 44.1 +6.5 37.6 -23.9 61.5 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Straight Away % 37.3 +1.3 36.0 +9.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- +25.0 75.0
Opposite Field % 18.6 -7.8 26.4 +14.9 11.5 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Weak Contact % 8.5 -2.7 11.2 +11.2 0.0 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Pull Airball % 13.6 -0.8 14.4 -16.4 30.8 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Topped Contact % 47.5 +11.5 36.0 +9.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Under Contact % 11.9 -4.9 16.8 -10.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Flare/Burner Contact % 20.3 -6.9 27.2 -7.4 34.6 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Solid Contact % 8.5 +4.5 4.0 +0.2 3.8 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
HR/FB % 10.0 -0.5 10.5 -14.5 25.0 -- -- -- -- -- 200.0
Popups 0 -7 7 +5 2 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Flyballs 10 -9 19 +11 8 -- -- -- -- -1 1
Line Drives 14 -16 30 +24 6 -- -- -- -- -1 1
Groundballs 35 -34 69 +59 10 -- -- -- -- +1 2
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 46.5 -0.6 47.1 +3.3 43.8 -- -- -- -- +23.2 33.3
Out of Zone % 53.5 +0.6 52.9 -3.3 56.2 -- -- -- -- -23.2 66.7
Edge % 37.6 -8.4 46.0 +9.9 36.1 -- -- -- -- +10.2 33.3
Zone Swing % 68.3 +5.0 63.3 +0.9 62.4 -- -- -- -- +5.5 71.4
Out of Zone Swing % 31.8 +2.9 28.9 +6.9 22.0 -- -- -- -- -18.6 28.6
In Zone Contact % 82.5 -6.0 88.5 +9.3 79.2 -- -- -- -- -10.0 90.0
Out of Zone Contact % 52.5 +2.5 50.0 -8.3 58.3 -- -- -- -- +75.0 25.0
Whiff % 28.0 +3.4 24.6 -2.7 27.3 -- -- -- -- -20.7 38.9
First Strike % 70.7 +8.8 61.9 +16.2 45.7 -- -- -- -- -6.7 66.7
First Pitch Swing % 38.0 +7.0 31.0 +4.9 26.1 -- -- -- -- +37.8 22.2
Swing % 48.7 +3.6 45.1 +5.4 39.7 -- -- -- -- +4.9 42.9
Meatball Swing % 80.8 -0.8 81.6 -0.8 82.4 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Meatball % 7.2 +0.7 6.5 -2.3 8.8 -- -- -- -- +3.9 4.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 17.5 +6.0 11.5 -9.3 20.8 -- -- -- -- +10.0 10.0
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 47.5 -2.5 50.0 +8.3 41.7 -- -- -- -- -75.0 75.0
In Zone 167 -190 357 +272 85 -- -- -- -- -1 14
Out of Zone 192 -209 401 +292 109 -- -- -- -- -18 28
Edge 135 -214 349 +279 70 -- -- -- -- -4 14
In Zone Swings 114 -112 226 +173 53 -- -- -- -- 0 10
Out of Zone Swings 61 -55 116 +92 24 -- -- -- -- -7 8
In Zone Swing & Misses 20 -6 26 +15 11 -- -- -- -- +1 1
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 29 -29 58 +48 10 -- -- -- -- -6 6
Basic
Pitches 359 -399 758 +564 194 -- -- -- -- -19 42
PA 92 -107 199 +153 46 -- -- -- -- -4 9
AB 84 -84 168 +132 36 -- -- -- -- -2 6
Hits 20 -13 33 +20 13 -- -- -- -- -1 2
Singles 18 -7 25 +17 8 -- -- -- -- +1 0
Doubles 1 -4 5 +3 2 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Triples 0 -1 1 0 1 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Home Runs 1 -1 2 0 2 -- -- -- -- -2 2
Walks 3 -19 22 +14 8 -- -- -- -- -2 3
Strikeouts 25 -20 45 +34 11 -- -- -- -- -1 2
K% 27.2 +4.6 22.6 -1.3 23.9 -- -- -- -- -2.2 22.2
BB% 3.3 -7.8 11.1 -6.3 17.4 -- -- -- -- -13.3 33.3
HBP 5 -2 7 +6 1 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Batted Balls 59 -66 125 +99 26 -- -- -- -- -1 4
Number of Fastballs 208 -158 366 +273 93 -- -- -- -- -12 23
Number of Offspeed 2 +1 1 +1 0 -- -- -- -- -9 9
Number of Breaking 149 -242 391 +290 101 -- -- -- -- +2 10
+ Toggle Viewing All Player's Year to Year Stats

Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 9 .676 4 0 0.0 5 3 60.0
2022 Shifts 5 .315 2 1 50.0 3 3 100.0
2024 Shades 46 .467 26 0 0.0 20 15 75.0
2025 Shades 197 .270 114 0 0.0 83 42 50.6
2026 Shades 92 .276 39 0 0.0 53 12 22.6
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 14 16.5 28.6% 0.0% 7 21.4 0.0% 0.0%
2022 9 16.1 22.2% 0.0% 2 16.9 0.0% 0.0%
2024 35 15.5 28.6% 0.0% 54 17.7 3.7% 1.9%
2025 219 15.8 29.7% 0.9% 118 18.0 1.7% 0.0%
2026 79 17.3 20.3% 3.8% 60 18.5 0.0% 5.0%

+ View Complete Pitch Tempo Leaderboard

Pitch Distribution