What is this? A Statcast metric designed to express the skill of catchers at throwing out runners on steal attempts, given the specifics of the opportunities they are presented with.
How this works: Each steal attempt (currently at 2B only) is assigned a probability of being successful or not based on several inputs at the time the pitch crosses the plate, most notably: runner distance from second, runner speed, pitch location, pitcher/batter handedness, and awareness of pitchouts or delayed steals. It’s the Statcast translation of the long-time saying “you steal off the pitcher, not the catcher.”
How to read it: Caught Stealing Above Average is the difference between actual caught stealing and estimate caught stealing based on the attempts seen. Catcher Stealing Runs is a translation of Caught Stealing Above Average to a run value on a .65 runs/CS basis, the difference between a SB (+.2 runs) and a CS (-.45 runs).
This chart compares the outcome of stolen base attempts based on runner distance from second and pop time. Each hexagon represents a set of attempts with similar runner distance and pop time. The color of the hexagon represents the percentage of attempts that were caught stealing, red being more frequently caught. The size of the hexagon represents the number of attempts in that group.
Runner distance from second is calculated when the pitch crosses the plate. A lower number (further to the left on the x axis) represents a runner who is closer to second base. Pop time is the time it takes from the moment the catcher receives the ball until the moment the ball is received at second base.
The chart is interactive. Hover over a hexagon to see the exact percentage of attempts caught stealing and the number of attempts in that group.
