Challenge Opportunity

Any pitch where a player is allowed, by the rulebook, to make a challenge. This ignores whether it’s a good idea, whether the umpire missed the call, if he’s permitted by his team to challenge, or any other strategic considerations. It’s simply just “would the challenge be initiated if you tried it?”

• A called pitch (i.e., ball or strike, no swings)
• Where at least one challenge is remaining
• Where the call went against you (a ball for pitcher/catcher, or a strike for batter)
• Exclusion: When a position player is pitching
• Exclusion: When a technical issue prevents ABS from functioning

Reasonable Pitch

Similar to a challenge opportunity, but takes into account pitch location, run value and challenge probability to get to add some strategic consideration to the choice. If a “challenge opportunity” is “literally any pitch you could challenge,” then a “reasonable pitch” attempts to get closer to one you should challenge.”

Is a Challenge Opportunity (see above), where one of the following three things also happened:

• 1) The umpire’s call was mistaken (i.e., would be overturned by ABS)
• OR 2) was a correct call, yet within 3 inches (i.e., close) and had a run value of at least +0.30, via the RE288 system.
  Why? This captures pitches that were both close and valuable, i.e., worth the challenge.
• OR 3) was a correct call, yet had a challenge probability of at least 20%.
  Why? To capture pitches that other players reasonably challenge.

Confidence level

A scoring system that takes into account the situation (count, outs, and runners on, i.e., the RE288 system), to express how confident a player should be in their evaluation before deciding to issue a challenge. Consider this the next step beyond a challenge opportunity (could you challenge?), and a reasonable pitch (should you challenge?), into: how strongly do you need to feel about this? This is explained in greater detail here.

Is a Challenge Opportunity (see above)

Each pitch gets a run value using the RE288 chart. The breakeven point of a challenge is [0.2 / 0.2 + run value of situation]. The breakeven point is the confidence level needed. A run value of 0.3 runs means the breakeven point is 40%, meaning you only need to be 40% certain of an overturn in order to issue a challenge. When the run value is very low, the breakeven point (and confidence level) is going to need to be very high.

How challenges affect catcher framing

An explanation of if and how an overturned call should affect catcher framing, i.e. the skill of presenting a ball so that the umpire is more likely to call it a strike

• First, the umpire’s initial call is used to establish the run value of catcher framing. (Exactly like the pre-ABS world.)
• The difference between the original and final call is considered a separate “challenge skill” run value.

An example of how it works:

A 1-2 pitch from Enmanuel De Jesus was called a ball to Fernando Tatis Jr. despite clipping the edge of the zone.

The probability of this pitch being called a strike was 46%, based on pitch location and player handedness. Since the catcher did not get the call, he receives -0.46 towards his framing value.

The catcher challenged the call, and won; the pitch became strike 3. Flipping from a called ball to a final strike earns +1.00 towards his challenging skill.

Results:

• Therefore the catcher gets +0.54 strikes.
• -0.46 for framing
• +1.00 for challenge
• +0.54 strikes total

Had the umpire called it a strike in the first place, the catcher still would have received +0.54, it just would have been all in framing value. Since the end result is a strike either way, the total value is the same, the difference is just in how they get there.