P | Arizona Diamondbacks
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 184 lbs | Age: 28
Draft: 2019 | Rd. 2, No. 56, Arizona Diamondbacks | Oregon
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 10 6 4.24 28 25 1 150.2 126 1.25
2025 7 3 3.39 33 23 1 154 132 1.07
2026 3 5 4.97 15 15 0 83.1 62 1.24
5 Seasons 29 23 4.30 108 93 2 550.1 432 1.23
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 28 10-6 4.24 150.2 126 1.25
2025 33 7-3 3.39 154 132 1.07
2026 15 3-5 4.97 83.1 62 1.24
5 Seasons 108 29-23 4.30 550.1 432 1.23
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2022 24 253 47 3 6.4 4.3 89.6 109.4 25.8 27.7 .177 .314 .224 .241 .276 36.2 23.2 8.7 1.47 2.32
2023 25 2355 475 55 11.6 8.9 90.8 113.2 16.2 37.1 .263 .493 .357 .349 .385 42.7 15.5 7.4 5.31 5.27
2024 26 2406 464 35 7.5 5.6 90.1 112.1 12.0 34.5 .262 .419 .322 .316 .372 41.6 20.0 5.4 4.24 4.08
2025 27 2466 442 33 7.5 5.3 91.4 115.0 14.3 36.2 .245 .411 .284 .308 .361 45.5 21.3 6.6 3.39 3.93
2026 28 1292 265 27 10.2 7.6 90.5 112.4 19.3 34.7 .261 .500 .337 .349 .396 43.4 17.5 6.2 4.97 5.11
Player 8772 1693 153 9.0 6.7 90.7 115.0 15.3 35.5 .255 .446 .321 .326 .374 43.1 18.8 6.5
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .408 .316 .316 .369 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Nelson relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(56.8%) ,
Slider
(20.0%) ,
Cutter
(9.9%) ,
Curveball
(9.5%) ,
Sinker
(3.7%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2022 25.5 74.5 44.7 17.0 12.8 31.9 36.2 31.9 14.9 6.4 4.3 17.0 29.8 27.7
2023 37.5 62.5 31.2 22.9 8.4 37.7 38.3 24.0 18.9 13.7 4.8 18.7 24.6 19.2
2024 42.5 57.5 24.1 27.6 5.8 36.9 34.7 28.4 19.0 17.5 6.0 17.9 17.2 22.4
2025 40.0 60.0 28.1 26.2 5.7 34.6 41.9 23.5 18.3 17.0 4.8 16.3 24.9 18.8
2026 32.5 67.5 37.4 22.3 7.9 34.0 37.4 28.7 18.1 11.7 2.6 15.8 25.7 26.0
Player 38.4 61.6 29.8 24.8 7.0 35.9 38.0 26.0 18.5 15.1 4.8 17.4 23.0 21.3
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.8 16.8 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2022 2.1 19.1 46.8 14.9 10.6 6.4 4.3
2023 3.4 26.3 30.9 22.1 5.5 11.6 8.9
2024 2.6 32.5 25.2 26.3 5.8 7.5 5.6
2025 2.5 29.4 27.8 24.2 8.4 7.5 5.3
2026 1.9 23.4 32.8 23.4 7.9 10.2 7.6
Player 2.7 28.2 29.3 23.8 6.9 9.0 6.7
MLB 4.0 32.3 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Curveball AZ R 123 81.0 49.1 -3.8 8.0GLV 0.3 -7.3 -2.9 8.0GLV -1.2
2026 Cutter AZ R 128 93.0 18.1 4.0 2.4GLV -0.2 13.5 5.4 2.4GLV 0.1
2026 Sinker AZ R 48 95.3 12.3 -7.9 8.6ARM -6.1 17.8 -10.2 8.6ARM -6.6
2026 Slider AZ R 259 88.7 30.9 -1.8 3.9GLV 0.1 3.8 -2.4 3.9GLV 0.1
2026 4-Seam Fastball AZ R 734 96.3 10.5 2.3 2.8ARM -3.7 19.1 3.2 2.8ARM -5.0
2025 Slider AZ R 353 86.6 35.0 0.7 4.9GLV 0.9 1.3 0.5 4.9GLV 0.7
2025 Cutter AZ R 248 91.0 25.7 -1.4 2.3GLV 0.0 7.3 -1.1 2.3GLV 0.1
2025 Changeup AZ R 70 87.0 23.5 -8.3 13.1ARM -1.3 12.7 -8.6 13.1ARM -1.3
2025 4-Seam Fastball AZ R 1526 95.7 10.8 2.5 3.2ARM -3.4 19.2 3.4 3.2ARM -4.4
2025 Curveball AZ R 269 80.0 51.2 -2.6 7.8GLV 0.1 -8.4 -1.8 7.8GLV -1.2
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 0.3 2 734 56.8 214 .230 .434 .322 19.8 17.8 15.4 .263 .506 .357 46.2
2026 Slider -2.3 -6 259 20.0 80 .293 .533 .386 26.8 23.8 21.1 .260 .459 .322 43.9
2026 Cutter -0.2 0 128 9.9 24 .286 .476 .373 15.5 0.0 0.0 .291 .508 .383 23.8
2026 Curveball -2.1 -3 123 9.5 25 .182 .409 .272 21.4 20.0 12.8 .223 .460 .317 38.9
2026 Sinker -3.4 -2 48 3.7 11 .364 1.000 .559 21.4 0.0 0.0 .268 .745 .418 45.5
2025 4-Seam Fastball 1.5 23 1,526 61.9 405 .207 .360 .281 19.1 22.7 17.4 .244 .411 .313 45.4
2025 Slider 0.0 0 353 14.3 81 .228 .380 .264 32.4 25.9 17.9 .230 .347 .251 44.1
2025 Curveball -1.2 -3 269 10.9 68 .222 .397 .307 25.8 23.5 15.8 .238 .389 .299 53.2
2025 Cutter 0.5 1 248 10.1 53 .250 .479 .348 21.2 5.7 11.5 .264 .500 .343 41.3
2025 Changeup -2.6 -2 70 2.8 12 .300 .600 .433 20.0 0.0 0.0 .357 .598 .453 40.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Curveball 118 81.0 58 13.1 7:15 7:30 -15
2026 Cutter 122 93.0 79 13.5 12:00 11:30 30
2026 4-Seam Fastball 671 96.3 99 19.2 12:15 12:15 0
2026 Sinker 48 95.3 97 19.5 12:30 1:00 -30
2026 Slider 240 88.6 33 6.0 10:15 10:00 15
2025 Changeup 70 87.0 99 18.1 1:45 1:45 0
2025 Curveball 269 80.0 63 13.6 7:15 7:15 0
2025 Cutter 248 91.0 62 7.4 11:45 11:15 30
2025 4-Seam Fastball 1,518 95.7 99 19.1 12:30 12:15 15
2025 Slider 350 86.6 34 6.3 9:30 9:00 30
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2022 68 253 3 3 -1 -1 4
2023 618 2,355 -3 4 -14 -9 -22
2024 628 2,406 5 15 -16 -8 -4
2025 619 2,466 20 25 -20 -6 19
2026 354 1,292 -5 8 -7 -4 -8
Player 2,287 8,772 19 56 -57 19 -10
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2022 253 53.8 62.5 82.4 21.4 56.0 46.6 53.6 43.5 23.6 9.1 69.6
2023 2,355 54.3 70.5 84.9 25.2 62.4 43.4 62.2 49.8 20.3 8.0 83.1
2024 2,406 53.9 71.1 85.6 29.3 71.1 44.8 67.3 51.8 18.2 8.2 83.8
2025 2,466 52.5 70.8 84.5 27.8 61.3 43.3 62.2 50.4 21.6 9.3 82.1
2026 1,292 50.5 73.9 85.3 34.1 65.1 43.2 63.7 54.2 21.0 7.4 77.9
Player 8,772 53.1 71.0 85.0 28.3 64.9 43.8 63.6 51.0 20.3 8.4 81.9
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.5 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2022 66 42 78
2023 4 2 19 50 15 56 43 51 8 11 9 6 65 4 22 22 70
2024 29 49 56 5 43 69 41 38 18 55 4 26 89 54 25 51 81
2025 93 99 24 34 52 72 45 50 4 41 20 40 74 63 12 40 87
2026 10 44 1 17 78 50 61 15 84 17 18 83 21 19 9 72
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 26.79 2 1.8 0 3 2 0 0.0
2023 23.78 25 26.1 -1 9 24 7 28.0
2024 22.78 17 16.1 1 9 14 5 29.4
2025 23.75 17 19.9 -3 9 14 10 58.8
2026 23.27 18 14.7 3 5 11 6 33.3
Player 23.53 79 78.5 1 35 65 28 35.4
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2022 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 3 4 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 2
2023 25 23 20 27 25 25 28 26 22 22 22 24 28 26 31 30 32 27 31 28 27 23 36 33 25 22 26 24 30 23 18
2024 17 14 12 23 16 17 18 17 16 11 15 19 15 10 17 16 14 15 17 19 17 14 24 19 14 15 16 17 16 16 14
2025 17 20 18 18 22 19 16 22 17 17 18 21 20 26 22 14 24 20 19 25 22 18 24 23 18 16 17 21 23 17 19
2026 18 17 11 15 15 15 15 14 16 15 13 14 11 16 16 18 18 15 16 17 12 11 16 19 13 11 14 14 16 12 13
Player 79 75 62 85 80 77 79 80 73 66 69 80 76 79 88 81 89 78 85 91 79 69 104 96 71 65 75 78 88 70 66
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022
Results
BA .249 +.032 .217 -.049 .266 -.018 .284 +.139 .145
xBA .261 +.016 .245 -.017 .262 -.001 .263 +.086 .177
OBP .305 +.032 .273 -.035 .308 -.026 .334 +.117 .217
xOBP .317 +.018 .299 -.008 .307 -.012 .319 +.073 .246
SLG .477 +.096 .381 -.065 .446 -.069 .515 +.209 .306
xSLG .500 +.089 .411 -.008 .419 -.074 .493 +.179 .314
ISO .228 +.064 .164 -.016 .180 -.051 .231 +.070 .161
xISO .239 +.073 .166 +.009 .157 -.073 .230 +.093 .137
BABIP .255 +.003 .252 -.057 .309 +.008 .301 +.145 .156
wOBA .337 +.053 .284 -.038 .322 -.035 .357 +.133 .224
xwOBA .349 +.041 .308 -.008 .316 -.033 .349 +.108 .241
wOBAcon .379 +.052 .327 -.053 .380 -.016 .396 +.145 .251
xwOBAcon .396 +.035 .361 -.011 .372 -.013 .385 +.109 .276
BACON .306 +.025 .281 -.053 .334 -.002 .336 +.145 .191
xBACON .322 +.005 .317 -.016 .333 +.016 .317 +.083 .234
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 43.4 -2.1 45.5 +3.9 41.6 -1.1 42.7 +6.5 36.2
Avg Exit Velocity 90.5 -0.9 91.4 +1.3 90.1 -0.7 90.8 +1.2 89.6
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 34.7 -1.5 36.2 +1.7 34.5 -2.6 37.1 +9.4 27.7
Barrel % 10.2 +2.7 7.5 0.0 7.5 -4.1 11.6 +5.2 6.4
Avg Launch Angle 19.3 +5.0 14.3 +2.3 12.0 -4.2 16.2 -9.6 25.8
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 71.8 +0.4 71.4 +0.3 71.1 -1.1 72.2 -- --
Attack Angle +2° -3° -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 49.8 -1.0 50.8 +6.0 44.8 -8.6 53.4 -- --
Attack Direction -1° +5° -1° -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 32° +1° 31° -1° 32° 32° -- --
Swing Length 7.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 7.0 -0.2 7.2 -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 95.8 +0.8 95.0 +0.8 94.2 +1.5 92.7 -2.0 94.7
Breaking Velocity 86.2 +2.4 83.8 +2.1 81.7 +1.3 80.4 +1.1 79.3
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 -- 87.0 +4.0 83.0 -0.3 83.3 +1.5 81.8
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 27 -6 33 -2 35 -20 55 +52 3
Popup % 7.9 +2.2 5.7 -0.1 5.8 -2.6 8.4 -4.4 12.8
Flyball % 37.4 +9.3 28.1 +4.0 24.1 -7.1 31.2 -13.5 44.7
Line Drive % 22.3 -3.9 26.2 -1.4 27.6 +4.7 22.9 +5.9 17.0
Groundball % 32.5 -7.5 40.0 -2.5 42.5 +5.0 37.5 +12.0 25.5
Pull % 34.0 -0.6 34.6 -2.3 36.9 -0.8 37.7 +5.8 31.9
Straight Away % 37.4 -4.5 41.9 +7.2 34.7 -3.6 38.3 +2.1 36.2
Opposite Field % 28.7 +5.2 23.5 -4.9 28.4 +4.4 24.0 -7.9 31.9
Weak Contact % 1.9 -0.6 2.5 -0.1 2.6 -0.8 3.4 +1.3 2.1
Pull Airball % 15.8 -0.5 16.3 -1.6 17.9 -0.8 18.7 +1.7 17.0
Topped Contact % 23.4 -6.0 29.4 -3.1 32.5 +6.2 26.3 +7.2 19.1
Under Contact % 32.8 +5.0 27.8 +2.6 25.2 -5.7 30.9 -15.9 46.8
Flare/Burner Contact % 23.4 -0.8 24.2 -2.1 26.3 +4.2 22.1 +7.2 14.9
Solid Contact % 7.9 -0.5 8.4 +2.6 5.8 +0.3 5.5 -5.1 10.6
HR/FB % 18.2 +4.5 13.7 -1.5 15.2 -1.0 16.2 +6.7 9.5
Popups 21 -4 25 -2 27 -13 40 +34 6
Flyballs 99 -25 124 +12 112 -36 148 +127 21
Line Drives 59 -57 116 -12 128 +19 109 +101 8
Groundballs 86 -91 177 -20 197 +19 178 +166 12
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 50.5 -2.0 52.5 -1.4 53.9 -0.4 54.3 +0.5 53.8
Out of Zone % 49.5 +2.0 47.5 +1.4 46.1 +0.4 45.7 -0.5 46.2
Edge % 43.2 -0.1 43.3 -1.5 44.8 +1.4 43.4 -3.2 46.6
Zone Swing % 73.9 +3.1 70.8 -0.3 71.1 +0.6 70.5 +8.0 62.5
Out of Zone Swing % 34.1 +6.3 27.8 -1.5 29.3 +4.1 25.2 +3.8 21.4
In Zone Contact % 85.3 +0.8 84.5 -1.1 85.6 +0.7 84.9 +2.5 82.4
Out of Zone Contact % 65.1 +3.8 61.3 -9.8 71.1 +8.7 62.4 +6.4 56.0
Whiff % 21.0 -0.6 21.6 +3.4 18.2 -2.1 20.3 -3.3 23.6
First Strike % 63.7 +1.5 62.2 -5.1 67.3 +5.1 62.2 +8.6 53.6
First Pitch Swing % 39.2 +4.1 35.1 -0.5 35.6 +2.5 33.1 +9.9 23.2
Swing % 54.2 +3.8 50.4 -1.4 51.8 +2.0 49.8 +6.3 43.5
Meatball Swing % 77.9 -4.2 82.1 -1.7 83.8 +0.7 83.1 +13.5 69.6
Meatball % 7.4 -1.9 9.3 +1.1 8.2 +0.2 8.0 -1.1 9.1
Zone Swing & Miss % 14.7 -0.8 15.5 +1.1 14.4 -0.7 15.1 -2.5 17.6
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 34.9 -3.8 38.7 +9.8 28.9 -8.7 37.6 -6.4 44.0
In Zone 652 -642 1,294 -2 1,296 +18 1,278 +1,142 136
Out of Zone 640 -532 1,172 +62 1,110 +33 1,077 +960 117
Edge 558 -509 1,067 -11 1,078 +55 1,023 +905 118
In Zone Swings 482 -434 916 -6 922 +21 901 +816 85
Out of Zone Swings 218 -108 326 +1 325 +54 271 +246 25
In Zone Swing & Misses 71 -71 142 +9 133 -3 136 +121 15
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 76 -50 126 +32 94 -8 102 +91 11
Basic
Pitches 1,292 -1,174 2,466 +60 2,406 +51 2,355 +2,102 253
PA 355 -264 619 -11 630 +11 619 +550 69
AB 325 -247 572 -11 583 +24 559 +497 62
Hits 81 -43 124 -31 155 -4 159 +150 9
Singles 45 -28 73 -20 93 +5 88 +84 4
Doubles 16 -9 25 -11 36 -1 37 +35 2
Triples 2 -7 9 0 9 -1 10 +9 1
Home Runs 18 +1 17 0 17 -7 24 +22 2
Walks 22 -19 41 +7 34 -12 46 +40 6
Strikeouts 62 -70 132 +6 126 +30 96 +80 16
K% 17.5 -3.8 21.3 +1.3 20.0 +4.5 15.5 -7.7 23.2
BB% 6.2 -0.4 6.6 +1.2 5.4 -2.0 7.4 -1.3 8.7
HBP 5 +1 4 -1 5 +4 1 +1 0
Batted Balls 265 -177 442 -22 464 -11 475 +428 47
Fastball Percent 70.4 -1.5 71.9 -2.2 74.1 +6.6 67.5 -2.9 70.4
Offspeed Percent 0.0 -2.8 2.8 -7.1 9.9 -3.4 13.3 +7.0 6.3
Breaking Percent 29.6 +4.4 25.2 +9.2 16.0 -3.2 19.2 -4.1 23.3
Number of Fastballs 910 -864 1,774 -9 1,783 +194 1,589 +1,411 178
Number of Offspeed 0 -70 70 -168 238 -75 313 +297 16
Number of Breaking 382 -240 622 +237 385 -68 453 +394 59
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2022 Shifts 68 .224 35 4 11.4 33 19 57.6
2023 Shades 617 .356 314 1 0.3 303 172 56.8
2024 Shades 628 .322 316 2 0.6 312 132 42.3
2025 Shades 619 .284 334 33 9.9 285 161 56.5
2026 Shades 330 .329 153 0 0.0 177 66 37.3
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2022 92 17.3 14.1% 1.1% 31 21.6 0.0% 3.2%
2023 632 15.0 50.6% 0.3% 388 19.0 1.0% 0.5%
2024 643 15.6 40.4% 0.3% 367 18.3 3.8% 0.5%
2025 701 17.9 1.4% 0.3% 361 19.6 0.0% 0.3%
2026 353 18.2 1.4% 3.1% 159 19.4 0.0% 3.8%

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Pitch Distribution