P | Cincinnati Reds
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 210 lbs | Age: 23
Draft: 2024 | Rd. 1, No. 2, Cincinnati Reds | Wake Forest
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2025 0 3 4.57 13 8 0 43.1 67 1.32
2026 15 3 2.80 28 28 0 151.1 181 1.15
2 Seasons 15 6 3.19 41 36 0 194.2 248 1.19
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2025 13 0-3 4.57 43.1 67 1.32
2026 28 15-3 2.80 151.1 181 1.15
2 Seasons 41 15-6 3.19 194.2 248 1.19
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Team Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2025 22 765 105 10 9.5 5.3 90.2 110.7 15.3 36.2 .217 .377 .311 .290 .416 45.7 35.6 8.5 4.57 3.46
2026 23 2502 378 30 8.1 4.9 89.4 113.1 18.6 34.4 .206 .346 .285 .277 .350 38.1 29.4 8.8 2.79 3.18
Player 3267 483 40 8.4 5.0 89.6 113.1 17.9 34.8 .208 .353 .291 .280 .365 39.8 30.9 8.7
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.6 33.3 .244 .407 .316 .316 .368 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Burns relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(55.6%) ,
Slider
(38.7%) ,
Changeup
(5.2%) ,
Sinker
(0.4%) ,
Curveball
(0.0%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2025 37.1 62.9 29.5 24.8 8.6 33.3 35.2 31.4 17.1 15.2 4.8 16.2 20.0 26.7
2026 38.4 61.6 29.1 23.3 9.3 39.4 35.7 24.9 20.4 13.5 4.5 19.0 22.2 20.4
Player 38.1 61.9 29.2 23.6 9.1 38.1 35.6 26.3 19.7 13.9 4.6 18.4 21.7 21.7
MLB 44.1 55.9 24.3 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.0 20.7 17.5 5.8 16.9 19.8 19.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2025 6.7 23.8 23.8 25.7 10.5 9.5 5.3
2026 2.4 26.2 30.7 23.3 7.1 8.1 4.9
Player 3.3 25.7 29.2 23.8 7.9 8.4 5.0
MLB 4.1 32.2 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
SeasonPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 4-Seam Fastball R 1391 97.6 10.2 1.7 3.3ARM -2.7 18.6 3.0 3.3ARM -4.5
2026 Sinker R 11 97.0 15.6 -3.8 11.2ARM -3.0 13.6 -6.1 11.2ARM -3.8
2026 Changeup R 131 90.1 23.5 -5.4 14.8ARM 0.6 10.3 -6.5 14.8ARM 0.6
2026 Slider R 968 90.2 33.2 2.1 3.2GLV 0.4 0.4 1.0 3.2GLV -0.4
2026 Curveball R 1 81.9 46.2 -5.3 0.8GLV -6.0 -5.5 -4.7 0.8GLV -8.2
2025 Curveball R 13 85.0 42.1 -5.7 3.6GLV -2.1 -4.3 -5.9 3.6GLV -5.4
2025 4-Seam Fastball R 442 98.7 10.0 1.5 3.5ARM -2.8 18.1 2.3 3.5ARM -4.1
2025 Slider R 258 90.9 31.8 2.4 5.1GLV 2.0 1.3 0.5 5.1GLV 0.9
2025 Sinker R 8 100.1 12.5 -5.4 12.2ARM -2.5 14.8 -7.4 12.2ARM -2.9
2025 Changeup R 43 91.2 26.3 -2.3 14.0ARM -1.0 6.6 -2.5 14.0ARM -0.5
! Note: Seasons are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Season Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 0.4 5 1,391 55.6 334 .251 .416 .345 17.3 16.2 14.6 .241 .415 .331 39.1
2026 Slider 1.7 16 968 38.7 259 .155 .249 .207 52.2 47.5 31.5 .154 .241 .198 37.4
2026 Changeup -5.0 -7 131 5.2 21 .450 .800 .540 39.6 19.0 21.1 .316 .608 .407 25.0
2026 Sinker -5.5 -1 11 0.4 1 .000 .000 .900 0.0 0.0 0.0 .139 .155 .136 100.0
2026 Curveball -4.3 0 1 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.9 4 442 57.9 102 .250 .341 .314 25.2 29.4 21.7 .242 .380 .322 50.8
2025 Slider 0.1 0 258 33.8 67 .197 .439 .281 43.9 47.8 34.4 .175 .333 .233 35.3
2025 Changeup -0.4 0 43 5.6 13 .182 .273 .342 33.3 30.8 25.0 .203 .317 .296 28.6
2025 Curveball -9.8 -1 13 1.7 4 .500 1.250 .725 25.0 25.0 50.0 .371 1.045 .581 66.7
2025 Sinker -17.9 -1 8 1.0 2 1.000 1.500 1.075 0.0 0.0 0.0 .335 .687 .431 100.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Season Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 131 90.1 96 18.1 1:30 2:00 -30
2026 4-Seam Fastball 1,390 97.6 90 18.5 12:30 12:15 15
2026 Sinker 11 97.0 93 17.5 12:45 1:30 -45
2026 Slider 967 90.2 22 4.2 10:00 8:30 90
2025 Changeup 41 91.1 93 15.8 1:30 2:15 -45
2025 Curveball 13 85.0 33 7.4 8:15 7:00 75
2025 4-Seam Fastball 430 98.7 91 18.2 12:30 12:30 0
2025 Slider 252 90.8 24 6.2 9:45 9:00 45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Season Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2025 188 765 2 5 -4 -2 1
2026 615 2,502 14 23 -10 -13 14
Player 803 3,267 16 29 -14 16 15
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2025 765 52.2 71.4 79.6 31.7 39.7 44.3 66.5 52.4 31.9 7.8 81.7
2026 2,502 43.6 67.5 81.5 34.6 47.4 39.1 60.2 49.0 32.1 6.6 73.5
Player 3,267 45.6 68.6 81.0 34.0 46.0 40.3 61.6 49.8 32.0 6.9 75.7
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.7 28.6 57.9 42.6 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Season Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2025 97 98 47
2026 86 65 99 4 84 92 99 29 86 92 90 45 38 52 29 38
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Season Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2025 23.94 5 4.9 0 3 2 3 60.0
2026 25.13 16 17.4 -1 7 14 7 43.8
Player 24.85 21 22.3 -1 10 16 10 47.6
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Season HR
2025 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 6 4 4 5 5 4 8 4 6 7 5 5 5 3 5 5 4 5
2026 16 18 12 22 18 19 18 19 20 18 15 17 14 24 21 20 19 19 16 22 13 16 21 21 14 13 13 18 17 13 13
Player 21 23 16 27 23 24 23 24 23 22 20 22 19 30 25 24 24 24 20 30 17 22 28 26 19 18 16 23 22 17 18
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025
Results
BA .215 -.025 .240
xBA .206 -.011 .217
OBP .285 -.020 .305
xOBP .278 -.006 .284
SLG .355 -.054 .409
xSLG .346 -.031 .377
ISO .140 -.030 .170
xISO .140 -.020 .160
BABIP .287 -.077 .364
wOBA .285 -.026 .311
xwOBA .277 -.013 .290
wOBAcon .361 -.092 .453
xwOBAcon .350 -.066 .416
BACON .317 -.077 .394
xBACON .306 -.052 .358
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 38.1 -7.6 45.7
Avg Exit Velocity 89.4 -0.8 90.2
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 34.4 -1.8 36.2
Barrel % 8.1 -1.4 9.5
Avg Launch Angle 18.6 +3.3 15.3
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.2 +0.7 71.5
Attack Angle 12° +2°
Ideal Attack Angle % 53.2 +4.0 49.2
Attack Direction -4° -4°
Swing Path - Tilt 32° 32°
Swing Length 7.4 0.0 7.4
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 97.6 -1.1 98.7
Breaking Velocity 90.2 -0.4 90.6
Offspeed Velocity 90.1 -1.1 91.2
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 30 +20 10
Popup % 9.3 +0.7 8.6
Flyball % 29.1 -0.4 29.5
Line Drive % 23.3 -1.5 24.8
Groundball % 38.4 +1.3 37.1
Pull % 39.4 +6.1 33.3
Straight Away % 35.7 +0.5 35.2
Opposite Field % 24.9 -6.5 31.4
Weak Contact % 2.4 -4.3 6.7
Pull Airball % 19.0 +2.8 16.2
Topped Contact % 26.2 +2.4 23.8
Under Contact % 30.7 +6.9 23.8
Flare/Burner Contact % 23.3 -2.4 25.7
Solid Contact % 7.1 -3.4 10.5
HR/FB % 14.5 -1.6 16.1
Popups 35 +26 9
Flyballs 110 +79 31
Line Drives 88 +62 26
Groundballs 145 +106 39
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 43.6 -8.6 52.2
Out of Zone % 56.4 +8.6 47.8
Edge % 39.1 -5.2 44.3
Zone Swing % 67.5 -3.9 71.4
Out of Zone Swing % 34.6 +2.9 31.7
In Zone Contact % 81.5 +1.9 79.6
Out of Zone Contact % 47.4 +7.7 39.7
Whiff % 32.1 +0.2 31.9
First Strike % 60.2 -6.3 66.5
First Pitch Swing % 35.8 -5.7 41.5
Swing % 49.0 -3.4 52.4
Meatball Swing % 73.5 -8.2 81.7
Meatball % 6.6 -1.2 7.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 18.5 -1.9 20.4
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 52.6 -7.7 60.3
In Zone 1,090 +691 399
Out of Zone 1,412 +1,046 366
Edge 979 +640 339
In Zone Swings 736 +451 285
Out of Zone Swings 489 +373 116
In Zone Swing & Misses 136 +78 58
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 257 +187 70
Basic
Pitches 2,502 +1,737 765
PA 615 +427 188
AB 557 +386 171
Hits 120 +79 41
Singles 77 +54 23
Doubles 24 +12 12
Triples 3 +2 1
Home Runs 16 +11 5
Walks 54 +38 16
Strikeouts 181 +114 67
K% 29.4 -6.2 35.6
BB% 8.8 +0.3 8.5
HBP 1 +1 0
Batted Balls 378 +273 105
Fastball Percent 56.0 -2.8 58.8
Offspeed Percent 5.2 -0.4 5.6
Breaking Percent 38.7 +3.3 35.4
Number of Fastballs 1,402 +952 450
Number of Offspeed 131 +88 43
Number of Breaking 969 +698 271
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
SeasonAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2025 Shades 188 .311 90 32 35.6 98 34 34.7
2026 Shades 615 .285 222 12 5.4 393 157 39.9
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2025 199 14.7 55.3% 0.0% 97 18.5 8.2% 0.0%
2026 703 15.9 31.4% 1.4% 286 18.5 3.5% 3.5%

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Pitch Distribution