P | Cincinnati Reds
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 210 lbs | Age: 23
Draft: 2024 | Rd. 1, No. 2, Cincinnati Reds | Wake Forest
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2025 0 3 4.57 13 8 0 43.1 67 1.32
2026 7 1 2.05 12 12 0 70.1 81 0.95
2 Seasons 7 4 3.01 25 20 0 113.2 148 1.09
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2025 13 0-3 4.57 43.1 67 1.32
2026 12 7-1 2.05 70.1 81 0.95
2 Seasons 25 7-4 3.01 113.2 148 1.09
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2025 22 765 105 10 9.5 5.3 90.2 110.7 15.3 36.2 .218 .377 .311 .291 .416 45.7 35.6 8.5 4.57 3.48
2026 23 1088 170 15 9.2 5.5 89.3 113.1 18.1 28.8 .200 .349 .257 .270 .349 39.4 29.7 7.7 2.05 2.89
Player 1853 275 25 9.3 5.4 89.7 113.1 17.0 31.6 .207 .360 .279 .279 .375 41.8 32.1 8.0
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .408 .315 .316 .369 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Burns relies on 4 pitches.
Four Seamer
(56.7%) ,
Slider
(36.6%) ,
Changeup
(6.6%) ,
Curveball
(0.1%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2025 37.1 62.9 29.5 24.8 8.6 33.3 35.2 31.4 17.1 15.2 4.8 16.2 20.0 26.7
2026 41.8 58.2 29.4 19.4 9.4 40.0 32.4 27.6 22.4 14.7 4.7 17.6 17.6 22.9
Player 40.0 60.0 29.5 21.5 9.1 37.5 33.5 29.1 20.4 14.9 4.7 17.1 18.5 24.4
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.9 16.8 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2025 6.7 23.8 23.8 25.7 10.5 9.5 5.3
2026 4.1 27.1 30.0 18.2 7.6 9.2 5.5
Player 5.1 25.8 27.6 21.1 8.7 9.3 5.4
MLB 4.0 32.3 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Slider CIN R 398 90.9 32.3 1.9 2.7GLV 0.2 0.8 0.6 2.7GLV -1.3
2026 4-Seam Fastball CIN R 617 98.0 9.9 1.8 3.9ARM -2.2 18.7 2.7 3.9ARM -3.9
2026 Changeup CIN R 72 90.0 24.1 -5.5 15.3ARM 0.8 9.9 -5.9 15.3ARM 0.7
2026 Curveball CIN R 1 81.9 46.2 -5.8 0.8GLV -6.3 -5.5 -4.8 0.8GLV -8.5
2025 Curveball CIN R 13 85.0 42.1 -5.7 3.6GLV -2.1 -4.3 -5.9 3.6GLV -5.4
2025 4-Seam Fastball CIN R 442 98.7 10.0 1.5 3.5ARM -2.8 18.1 2.3 3.5ARM -4.1
2025 Changeup CIN R 43 91.2 26.3 -2.3 14.0ARM -1.0 6.6 -2.5 14.0ARM -0.5
2025 Sinker CIN R 8 100.1 12.5 -5.4 12.2ARM -2.5 14.8 -7.4 12.2ARM -2.9
2025 Slider CIN R 258 90.9 31.8 2.4 5.1GLV 2.0 1.3 0.5 5.1GLV 0.8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 1.2 7 617 56.7 146 .205 .346 .300 20.7 16.4 15.1 .238 .393 .326 37.9
2026 Slider 2.2 9 398 36.6 113 .126 .252 .185 54.5 48.7 36.9 .140 .270 .183 44.6
2026 Changeup -6.3 -5 72 6.6 14 .462 .769 .539 36.7 14.3 14.3 .320 .558 .399 27.3
2026 Curveball -4.4 0 1 0.1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.9 4 442 57.9 102 .250 .341 .314 25.2 29.4 21.7 .241 .380 .321 50.8
2025 Slider 0.1 0 258 33.8 67 .197 .439 .281 43.9 47.8 34.4 .175 .334 .234 35.3
2025 Changeup -0.4 0 43 5.6 13 .182 .273 .342 33.3 30.8 25.0 .203 .317 .296 28.6
2025 Curveball -9.8 -1 13 1.7 4 .500 1.250 .725 25.0 25.0 50.0 .371 1.045 .581 66.7
2025 Sinker -17.9 -1 8 1.0 2 1.000 1.500 1.075 0.0 0.0 0.0 .335 .687 .431 100.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 72 90.0 97 18.3 1:30 2:00 -30
2026 4-Seam Fastball 616 98.0 91 18.7 12:30 12:30 0
2026 Slider 397 90.9 19 3.8 10:15 8:45 90
2025 Changeup 41 91.1 93 15.8 1:30 2:15 -45
2025 Curveball 13 85.0 33 7.4 8:15 7:00 75
2025 4-Seam Fastball 430 98.7 91 18.2 12:30 12:30 0
2025 Slider 252 90.8 24 6.2 9:45 9:00 45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2025 188 765 2 5 -4 -2 1
2026 273 1,088 10 11 -5 -5 12
Player 461 1,853 12 17 -9 12 13
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2025 765 52.2 71.4 79.6 31.7 39.7 44.3 66.5 52.4 31.9 7.8 81.7
2026 1,088 44.1 68.8 76.1 33.2 48.5 40.0 60.1 48.9 34.4 6.8 78.4
Player 1,853 47.4 70.0 77.7 32.6 45.3 41.8 62.7 50.4 33.3 7.2 79.9
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.5 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2025 97 98 47
2026 94 94 99 3 87 93 99 41 76 95 91 63 31 46 45 39
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2025 23.94 5 4.9 0 3 2 3 60.0
2026 26.21 9 7.8 1 4 7 2 22.2
Player 25.40 14 12.6 1 7 9 5 35.7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2025 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 6 4 4 5 5 4 8 4 6 7 5 5 5 3 5 5 4 5
2026 9 8 6 9 8 10 9 7 10 6 6 8 6 9 9 12 9 8 7 11 3 7 10 11 6 6 7 8 7 5 5
Player 14 13 10 14 13 15 14 12 13 10 11 13 11 15 13 16 14 13 11 19 7 13 17 16 11 11 10 13 12 9 10
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025
Results
BA .183 -.057 .240
xBA .200 -.018 .218
OBP .246 -.059 .305
xOBP .263 -.021 .284
SLG .327 -.082 .409
xSLG .349 -.028 .377
ISO .143 -.027 .170
xISO .149 -.011 .160
BABIP .230 -.134 .364
wOBA .257 -.054 .311
xwOBA .270 -.021 .291
wOBAcon .325 -.128 .453
xwOBAcon .349 -.067 .416
BACON .271 -.123 .394
xBACON .299 -.059 .358
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 39.4 -6.3 45.7
Avg Exit Velocity 89.3 -0.9 90.2
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 28.8 -7.4 36.2
Barrel % 9.2 -0.3 9.5
Avg Launch Angle 18.1 +2.8 15.3
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.3 +0.7 71.6
Attack Angle 11° +1°
Ideal Attack Angle % 52.4 +3.0 49.4
Attack Direction -3° -3°
Swing Path - Tilt 32° 32°
Swing Length 7.4 0.0 7.4
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 98.0 -0.7 98.7
Breaking Velocity 90.9 +0.3 90.6
Offspeed Velocity 90.0 -1.2 91.2
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 15 +5 10
Popup % 9.4 +0.8 8.6
Flyball % 29.4 -0.1 29.5
Line Drive % 19.4 -5.4 24.8
Groundball % 41.8 +4.7 37.1
Pull % 40.0 +6.7 33.3
Straight Away % 32.4 -2.8 35.2
Opposite Field % 27.6 -3.8 31.4
Weak Contact % 4.1 -2.6 6.7
Pull Airball % 17.6 +1.4 16.2
Topped Contact % 27.1 +3.3 23.8
Under Contact % 30.0 +6.2 23.8
Flare/Burner Contact % 18.2 -7.5 25.7
Solid Contact % 7.6 -2.9 10.5
HR/FB % 18.0 +1.9 16.1
Popups 16 +7 9
Flyballs 50 +19 31
Line Drives 33 +7 26
Groundballs 71 +32 39
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 44.1 -8.1 52.2
Out of Zone % 55.9 +8.1 47.8
Edge % 40.0 -4.3 44.3
Zone Swing % 68.8 -2.6 71.4
Out of Zone Swing % 33.2 +1.5 31.7
In Zone Contact % 76.1 -3.5 79.6
Out of Zone Contact % 48.5 +8.8 39.7
Whiff % 34.4 +2.5 31.9
First Strike % 60.1 -6.4 66.5
First Pitch Swing % 34.4 -7.1 41.5
Swing % 48.9 -3.5 52.4
Meatball Swing % 78.4 -3.3 81.7
Meatball % 6.8 -1.0 7.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 23.9 +3.5 20.4
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 51.5 -8.8 60.3
In Zone 480 +81 399
Out of Zone 608 +242 366
Edge 435 +96 339
In Zone Swings 330 +45 285
Out of Zone Swings 202 +86 116
In Zone Swing & Misses 79 +21 58
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 104 +34 70
Basic
Pitches 1,088 +323 765
PA 273 +85 188
AB 251 +80 171
Hits 46 +5 41
Singles 28 +5 23
Doubles 9 -3 12
Triples 0 -1 1
Home Runs 9 +4 5
Walks 21 +5 16
Strikeouts 81 +14 67
K% 29.7 -5.9 35.6
BB% 7.7 -0.8 8.5
HBP 0 0 0
Batted Balls 170 +65 105
Number of Fastballs 617 +167 450
Number of Offspeed 72 +29 43
Number of Breaking 399 +128 271
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2025 Shades 188 .311 90 32 35.6 98 34 34.7
2026 Shades 273 .257 115 11 9.6 158 74 46.8
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2025 199 14.7 55.3% 0.0% 97 18.5 8.2% 0.0%
2026 342 15.7 36.3% 1.5% 117 18.5 3.4% 4.3%

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Pitch Distribution