P | Arizona Diamondbacks
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 184 lbs | Age: 27
Draft: 2019 | Rd. 2, No. 56, Arizona Diamondbacks | Oregon
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 8 8 5.31 29 27 0 144 96 1.42
2024 10 6 4.24 28 25 1 150.2 126 1.25
2025 7 3 3.39 33 23 1 154 132 1.07
4 Seasons 26 18 4.18 93 78 2 467 370 1.23
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 29 8-8 5.31 144 96 1.42
2024 28 10-6 4.24 150.2 126 1.25
2025 33 7-3 3.39 154 132 1.07
4 Seasons 93 26-18 4.18 467 370 1.23
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2022 24 253 47 3 6.4 4.3 89.6 109.4 25.8 27.7 .173 .294 .224 .233 .264 36.2 23.2 8.7 1.47 2.22
2023 25 2355 475 55 11.6 8.9 90.8 113.2 16.2 37.1 .268 .487 .357 .349 .385 42.7 15.5 7.4 5.31 5.27
2024 26 2406 464 35 7.5 5.6 90.1 112.1 12.0 34.5 .266 .412 .322 .314 .370 41.6 20.0 5.4 4.24 4.14
2025 27 2466 442 33 7.5 5.3 91.4 115.0 14.3 36.2 .247 .402 .284 .306 .359 45.5 21.3 6.6 3.39 3.91
Player 7480 1428 126 8.8 6.5 90.7 115.0 14.6 35.6 .257 .428 .318 .320 .368 43.0 19.1 6.6
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .245 .404 .315 .315 .368 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Nelson relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(61.9%) ,
Cutter
(12.2%) ,
Slider
(12.1%) ,
Curveball
(10.9%) ,
Changeup
(2.8%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2022 25.5 74.5 44.7 17.0 12.8 31.9 36.2 31.9 14.9 6.4 4.3 17.0 29.8 27.7
2023 37.5 62.5 31.2 22.9 8.4 37.7 38.3 24.0 18.9 13.7 4.8 18.7 24.6 19.2
2024 42.5 57.5 24.1 27.6 5.8 36.9 34.7 28.4 19.0 17.5 6.0 17.9 17.2 22.4
2025 40.0 60.0 28.1 26.2 5.7 34.6 41.9 23.5 18.3 17.0 4.8 16.3 24.9 18.8
Player 39.5 60.5 28.4 25.3 6.9 36.3 38.2 25.6 18.6 15.7 5.2 17.6 22.5 20.4
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.0 24.7 7.1 37.4 37.4 25.1 20.6 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2022 2.1 19.1 46.8 14.9 10.6 6.4 4.3
2023 3.4 26.3 30.9 22.1 5.5 11.6 8.9
2024 2.6 32.5 25.2 26.3 5.8 7.5 5.6
2025 2.5 29.4 27.8 24.2 8.4 7.5 5.3
Player 2.8 29.1 28.6 23.9 6.7 8.8 6.5
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 4-Seam Fastball AZ R 1526 95.7 10.8 2.5 3.2ARM -3.4 19.2 3.4 3.2ARM -4.4
2025 Changeup AZ R 70 87.0 23.5 -8.2 13.1ARM -1.3 12.7 -8.6 13.1ARM -1.3
2025 Slider AZ R 299 86.3 36.0 1.3 5.2GLV 1.2 0.5 1.2 5.2GLV 0.6
2025 Cutter AZ R 302 90.5 26.3 -1.4 2.4GLV 0.0 6.9 -1.4 2.4GLV 0.2
2025 Curveball AZ R 269 80.0 51.2 -2.6 7.8GLV 0.0 -8.4 -1.5 7.8GLV -1.3
2024 Curveball AZ R 137 77.8 53.2 -2.5 9.2GLV 0.2 -7.8 -2.2 9.2GLV -0.2
2024 Sweeper AZ R 44 82.3 40.3 1.0 11.5GLV -2.3 0.1 1.4 11.5GLV -2.6
2024 Cutter AZ R 442 91.2 24.4 -0.3 1.2GLV -1.4 8.4 0.1 1.2GLV -1.5
2024 Slider AZ R 204 84.2 40.3 3.0 5.5GLV 0.4 -1.8 3.5 5.5GLV 0.7
2024 Changeup AZ R 238 83.0 29.8 -3.1 15.2ARM 1.2 10.1 -5.2 15.2ARM 1.0
2024 4-Seam Fastball AZ R 1341 95.2 11.9 2.0 5.7ARM -1.2 18.3 2.6 5.7ARM -1.9
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 4-Seam Fastball 1.5 23 1,526 61.9 405 .207 .360 .281 19.1 22.7 17.4 .245 .403 .311 45.4
2025 Cutter 0.1 0 302 12.2 63 .268 .500 .358 21.7 4.8 7.3 .287 .496 .354 43.6
2025 Slider 0.3 1 299 12.1 71 .211 .352 .244 33.6 29.6 20.6 .216 .323 .231 42.0
2025 Curveball -1.2 -3 269 10.9 68 .222 .397 .307 25.8 23.5 15.8 .235 .364 .289 53.2
2025 Changeup -2.6 -2 70 2.8 12 .300 .600 .433 20.0 0.0 0.0 .364 .612 .463 40.0
2024 4-Seam Fastball 0.4 6 1,341 55.7 328 .249 .418 .320 19.5 28.0 19.8 .249 .387 .307 51.9
2024 Cutter -1.1 -5 442 18.4 131 .317 .508 .363 15.4 10.7 13.6 .307 .438 .336 35.1
2024 Changeup -2.5 -6 238 9.9 66 .302 .587 .389 20.3 10.6 9.2 .287 .495 .352 35.7
2024 Slider 0.5 1 204 8.5 56 .226 .340 .256 15.6 12.5 8.5 .245 .352 .270 25.5
2024 Curveball 1.8 3 137 5.7 32 .138 .207 .178 14.8 9.4 10.0 .232 .416 .292 22.2
2024 Sweeper -5.6 -2 44 1.8 15 .400 .733 .477 16.7 20.0 13.0 .332 .546 .372 58.3
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 Changeup 70 87.0 99 18.1 1:45 1:45 0
2025 Curveball 269 80.0 63 13.6 7:15 7:15 0
2025 Cutter 302 90.5 58 7.2 11:30 11:15 15
2025 4-Seam Fastball 1,518 95.7 99 19.1 12:30 12:15 15
2025 Slider 296 86.3 34 6.3 9:30 8:45 45
2024 Changeup 238 83.0 99 18.3 2:00 2:00 0
2024 Curveball 137 77.8 67 14.4 7:15 7:30 -15
2024 Cutter 442 91.2 63 8.1 12:00 11:45 15
2024 4-Seam Fastball 1,340 95.2 98 18.8 12:45 12:30 15
2024 Slider 204 84.2 38 7.3 8:45 8:00 45
2024 Sweeper 44 82.3 51 12.4 8:00 8:45 -45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2022 68 253 3 3 -1 -1 4
2023 618 2,355 -3 4 -14 -9 -22
2024 628 2,406 5 15 -16 -8 -4
2025 619 2,466 20 25 -20 -6 19
Player 1,933 7,480 24 48 -50 24 -2
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2022 253 54.2 62.0 82.4 21.6 56.0 46.6 53.6 43.5 23.6 9.1 69.6
2023 2,355 54.4 70.4 84.8 25.1 62.6 43.3 62.2 49.8 20.3 8.0 83.1
2024 2,406 54.0 71.1 85.6 29.3 71.0 44.8 67.3 51.8 18.2 8.2 83.8
2025 2,466 52.5 70.8 84.4 27.8 61.5 43.2 62.2 50.4 21.6 9.3 82.1
Player 7,480 53.6 70.5 84.9 27.2 64.9 43.9 63.6 50.4 20.1 8.5 82.5
MLB 48.9 67.0 82.5 28.4 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2022 66 42 77
2023 15 20 8 5 42 2 4 8 22 6 65 9 11 56 43 52 70
2024 42 14 30 54 48 18 54 18 25 26 89 4 56 69 41 38 81
2025 52 41 41 46 66 26 62 4 12 40 74 20 41 72 45 49 87
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 26.79 2 1.8 0 3 2 0 0.0
2023 23.78 25 26.1 -1 9 24 7 28.0
2024 22.78 17 16.1 1 9 14 5 29.4
2025 23.75 17 19.9 -3 9 14 10 58.8
Player 23.59 61 63.9 -3 30 54 22 36.1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2022 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 3 4 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 2
2023 25 23 20 27 25 25 28 26 22 22 22 24 28 26 31 30 32 27 31 28 27 23 36 33 25 22 26 24 30 23 18
2024 17 14 12 23 16 17 18 17 16 11 15 19 15 10 17 16 14 15 17 19 17 14 24 19 14 15 16 17 16 16 14
2025 17 20 18 18 22 19 16 22 17 17 18 21 20 26 22 14 24 20 19 25 22 18 24 23 18 16 17 21 23 17 19
Player 61 58 51 70 65 62 64 66 57 51 56 66 65 63 72 63 71 63 69 74 67 58 88 77 58 54 61 64 72 58 53
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022
Results
BA .217 -.049 .266 -.018 .284 +.139 .145
xBA .247 -.019 .266 -.002 .268 +.095 .173
OBP .273 -.035 .308 -.026 .334 +.117 .217
xOBP .301 -.010 .311 -.013 .324 +.081 .243
SLG .381 -.065 .446 -.069 .515 +.209 .306
xSLG .402 -.010 .412 -.075 .487 +.193 .294
ISO .164 -.016 .180 -.051 .231 +.070 .161
xISO .155 +.009 .146 -.073 .219 +.098 .121
BABIP .252 -.057 .309 +.008 .301 +.145 .156
wOBA .284 -.038 .322 -.035 .357 +.133 .224
xwOBA .306 -.008 .314 -.035 .349 +.116 .233
wOBACON .327 -.053 .380 -.016 .396 +.145 .251
xwOBACON .359 -.011 .370 -.015 .385 +.121 .264
BACON .281 -.053 .334 -.002 .336 +.145 .191
xBACON .320 -.018 .338 +.015 .323 +.094 .229
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 45.5 +3.9 41.6 -1.1 42.7 +6.5 36.2
Avg Exit Velocity 91.4 +1.3 90.1 -0.7 90.8 +1.2 89.6
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 36.2 +1.7 34.5 -2.6 37.1 +9.4 27.7
Barrel % 7.5 0.0 7.5 -4.1 11.6 +5.2 6.4
Avg Launch Angle 14.3 +2.3 12.0 -4.2 16.2 -9.6 25.8
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 71.4 +0.3 71.1 -1.1 72.2 -- --
Attack Angle +2° -3° -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 50.8 +6.0 44.8 -8.0 52.8 -- --
Attack Direction -1° +5° -1° -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 31° -1° 32° 32° -- --
Swing Length 7.0 0.0 7.0 -0.2 7.2 -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 94.8 +0.6 94.2 +1.5 92.7 -2.0 94.7
Breaking Velocity 83.3 +1.6 81.7 +1.3 80.4 +1.1 79.3
Offspeed Velocity 87.0 +4.0 83.0 -0.3 83.3 +1.5 81.8
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 33 -2 35 -20 55 +52 3
Popup % 5.7 -0.1 5.8 -2.6 8.4 -4.4 12.8
Flyball % 28.1 +4.0 24.1 -7.1 31.2 -13.5 44.7
Line Drive % 26.2 -1.4 27.6 +4.7 22.9 +5.9 17.0
Groundball % 40.0 -2.5 42.5 +5.0 37.5 +12.0 25.5
Pull % 34.6 -2.3 36.9 -0.8 37.7 +5.8 31.9
Straight Away % 41.9 +7.2 34.7 -3.6 38.3 +2.1 36.2
Opposite Field % 23.5 -4.9 28.4 +4.4 24.0 -7.9 31.9
Weak Contact % 2.5 -0.1 2.6 -0.8 3.4 +1.3 2.1
Pull Airball % 16.3 -1.6 17.9 -0.8 18.7 +1.7 17.0
Topped Contact % 29.4 -3.1 32.5 +6.2 26.3 +7.2 19.1
Under Contact % 27.8 +2.6 25.2 -5.7 30.9 -15.9 46.8
Flare/Burner Contact % 24.2 -2.1 26.3 +4.2 22.1 +7.2 14.9
Solid Contact % 8.4 +2.6 5.8 +0.3 5.5 -5.1 10.6
HR/FB % 13.7 -1.5 15.2 -1.0 16.2 +6.7 9.5
Popups 25 -2 27 -13 40 +34 6
Flyballs 124 +12 112 -36 148 +127 21
Line Drives 116 -12 128 +19 109 +101 8
Groundballs 177 -20 197 +19 178 +166 12
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 52.5 -1.5 54.0 -0.4 54.4 +0.2 54.2
Out of Zone % 47.5 +1.5 46.0 +0.4 45.6 -0.2 45.8
Edge % 43.2 -1.6 44.8 +1.5 43.3 -3.3 46.6
Zone Swing % 70.8 -0.3 71.1 +0.7 70.4 +8.4 62.0
Out of Zone Swing % 27.8 -1.5 29.3 +4.2 25.1 +3.5 21.6
In Zone Contact % 84.4 -1.2 85.6 +0.8 84.8 +2.4 82.4
Out of Zone Contact % 61.5 -9.5 71.0 +8.4 62.6 +6.6 56.0
Whiff % 21.6 +3.4 18.2 -2.1 20.3 -3.3 23.6
First Strike % 62.2 -5.1 67.3 +5.1 62.2 +8.6 53.6
First Pitch Swing % 35.1 -0.5 35.6 +2.5 33.1 +9.9 23.2
Swing % 50.4 -1.4 51.8 +2.0 49.8 +6.3 43.5
Meatball Swing % 82.1 -1.7 83.8 +0.7 83.1 +13.5 69.6
Meatball % 9.3 +1.1 8.2 +0.2 8.0 -1.1 9.1
Zone Swing & Miss % 15.6 +1.2 14.4 -0.8 15.2 -2.4 17.6
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 38.5 +9.5 29.0 -8.4 37.4 -6.6 44.0
In Zone 1,295 -4 1,299 +18 1,281 +1,144 137
Out of Zone 1,171 +64 1,107 +32 1,075 +959 116
Edge 1,066 -12 1,078 +57 1,021 +903 118
In Zone Swings 917 -6 923 +21 902 +817 85
Out of Zone Swings 325 +1 324 +54 270 +245 25
In Zone Swing & Misses 143 +10 133 -4 137 +122 15
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 125 +31 94 -7 101 +90 11
Basic
Pitches 2,466 +60 2,406 +51 2,355 +2,102 253
PA 619 -11 630 +11 619 +550 69
AB 572 -11 583 +24 559 +497 62
Hits 124 -31 155 -4 159 +150 9
Singles 73 -20 93 +5 88 +84 4
Doubles 25 -11 36 -1 37 +35 2
Triples 9 0 9 -1 10 +9 1
Home Runs 17 0 17 -7 24 +22 2
Walks 41 +7 34 -12 46 +40 6
Strikeouts 132 +6 126 +30 96 +80 16
K% 21.3 +1.3 20.0 +4.5 15.5 -7.7 23.2
BB% 6.6 +1.2 5.4 -2.0 7.4 -1.3 8.7
HBP 4 -1 5 +4 1 +1 0
Batted Balls 442 -22 464 -11 475 +428 47
Number of Fastballs 1,828 +45 1,783 +194 1,589 +1,411 178
Number of Offspeed 70 -168 238 -75 313 +297 16
Number of Breaking 568 +227 341 -41 382 +323 59
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2022 Shifts 68 .224 35 4 11.4 33 19 57.6
2023 Shades 617 .356 314 1 0.3 303 172 56.8
2024 Shades 628 .322 316 2 0.6 312 132 42.3
2025 Shades 619 .284 334 33 9.9 285 161 56.5
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2022 92 17.3 14.1% 1.1% 31 21.6 0.0% 3.2%
2023 632 15.0 50.6% 0.3% 388 19.0 1.0% 0.5%
2024 643 15.6 40.4% 0.3% 367 18.3 3.8% 0.5%
2025 701 17.9 1.4% 0.3% 361 19.6 0.0% 0.3%

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Pitch Distribution