P | Cincinnati Reds
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 210 lbs | Age: 23
Draft: 2024 | Rd. 1, No. 2, Cincinnati Reds | Wake Forest
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2025 0 3 4.57 13 8 0 43.1 67 1.32
2026 2 1 2.57 5 5 0 28 30 1.07
2 Seasons 2 4 3.79 18 13 0 71.1 97 1.22
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2025 13 0-3 4.57 43.1 67 1.32
2026 5 2-1 2.57 28 30 1.07
2 Seasons 18 2-4 3.79 71.1 97 1.22
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2025 22 765 105 10 9.5 5.3 90.2 110.7 15.3 36.2 .218 .377 .311 .291 .416 45.7 35.6 8.5 4.57 3.48
2026 23 441 70 7 10.0 6.3 89.3 113.1 17.4 21.4 .219 .372 .270 .298 .365 42.0 27.0 9.9 2.57 3.50
Player 1206 175 17 9.7 5.7 89.8 113.1 16.1 30.3 .218 .375 .296 .293 .396 44.3 32.4 9.0
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .243 .408 .316 .316 .369 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Burns relies on 3 pitches.
Four Seamer
(56.7%) ,
Slider
(36.5%) ,
Changeup
(6.7%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2025 37.1 62.9 29.5 24.8 8.6 33.3 35.2 31.4 17.1 15.2 4.8 16.2 20.0 26.7
2026 48.6 51.4 25.7 12.9 12.9 44.3 30.0 25.7 27.1 18.6 2.9 17.1 11.4 22.9
Player 41.7 58.3 28.0 20.0 10.3 37.7 33.1 29.1 21.1 16.6 4.0 16.6 16.6 25.1
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2025 6.7 23.8 23.8 25.7 10.5 9.5 5.3
2026 2.9 32.9 27.1 18.6 4.3 10.0 6.3
Player 5.1 27.4 25.1 22.9 8.0 9.7 5.7
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Slider CIN R 161 90.5 32.9 1.9 2.7GLV -0.2 0.5 0.9 2.7GLV -1.5
2026 4-Seam Fastball CIN R 250 98.1 10.1 1.5 3.7ARM -2.3 18.6 2.5 3.7ARM -4.0
2026 Changeup CIN R 30 89.8 24.0 -5.7 15.7ARM 1.2 10.2 -6.3 15.7ARM 1.0
2025 Slider CIN R 258 90.9 31.8 2.4 5.1GLV 2.0 1.3 0.5 5.1GLV 0.8
2025 Sinker CIN R 8 100.1 12.5 -6.3 12.2ARM -2.5 14.8 -7.4 12.2ARM -2.9
2025 Curveball CIN R 13 85.0 42.1 -5.7 3.6GLV -2.1 -4.3 -5.9 3.6GLV -5.4
2025 Changeup CIN R 43 91.2 26.3 -2.3 14.0ARM -1.0 6.6 -2.5 14.0ARM -0.5
2025 4-Seam Fastball CIN R 442 98.7 10.0 1.5 3.5ARM -2.8 18.1 2.3 3.5ARM -4.1
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 0.3 1 250 56.7 60 .204 .388 .339 21.2 15.0 14.3 .261 .479 .386 48.7
2026 Slider 3.3 5 161 36.5 45 .133 .222 .159 47.6 44.4 36.4 .152 .251 .172 40.0
2026 Changeup -3.4 -1 30 6.8 6 .500 .500 .450 33.3 16.7 14.3 .357 .386 .329 0.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.9 4 442 57.9 102 .250 .341 .314 25.2 29.4 21.7 .242 .380 .322 50.8
2025 Slider 0.1 0 258 33.8 67 .197 .439 .281 43.9 47.8 34.4 .175 .333 .234 35.3
2025 Changeup -0.4 0 43 5.6 13 .182 .273 .342 33.3 30.8 25.0 .203 .317 .296 28.6
2025 Curveball -9.8 -1 13 1.7 4 .500 1.250 .725 25.0 25.0 50.0 .371 1.045 .581 66.7
2025 Sinker -17.9 -1 8 1.0 2 1.000 1.500 1.075 0.0 0.0 0.0 .335 .687 .431 100.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 29 89.8 98 18.8 1:30 2:00 -30
2026 4-Seam Fastball 243 98.1 92 18.6 12:30 12:30 0
2026 Slider 157 90.5 20 3.8 10:15 8:45 90
2025 Changeup 41 91.1 93 15.8 1:30 2:15 -45
2025 Curveball 13 85.0 33 7.4 8:15 7:00 75
2025 4-Seam Fastball 430 98.7 91 18.2 12:30 12:30 0
2025 Slider 252 90.8 24 6.2 9:45 9:00 45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2025 188 765 2 5 -4 -2 1
2026 111 441 3 5 -2 -2 5
Player 299 1,206 5 11 -5 5 6
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2025 765 52.3 71.5 79.7 31.5 39.1 44.3 66.5 52.4 31.9 7.8 81.7
2026 441 46.9 67.1 76.3 31.2 50.7 40.8 60.4 48.1 32.5 7.7 64.7
Player 1,206 50.3 70.0 78.6 31.4 43.6 43.0 64.2 50.8 32.1 7.8 75.5
MLB 48.8 67.0 82.6 28.5 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.4 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2025 97 98 47
2026 90 64 99 19 68 94 98 47 63 88 76 42 31 38 71 41
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2025 23.94 5 4.9 0 3 2 3 60.0
2026 26.95 4 2.3 2 1 3 0 0.0
Player 25.28 9 7.2 2 4 5 3 33.3
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2025 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 6 4 4 5 5 4 8 4 6 7 5 5 5 3 5 5 4 5
2026 4 3 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 0 1 4 4 2 1 3 2 1 1 2
Player 9 8 5 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 6 9 7 7 7 8 6 12 4 7 11 9 7 6 6 7 6 5 7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025
Results
BA .190 -.050 .240
xBA .219 +.001 .218
OBP .270 -.035 .305
xOBP .298 +.014 .284
SLG .320 -.089 .409
xSLG .372 -.005 .377
ISO .130 -.040 .170
xISO .153 -.007 .160
BABIP .227 -.137 .364
wOBA .270 -.041 .311
xwOBA .298 +.007 .291
wOBAcon .317 -.136 .453
xwOBAcon .365 -.051 .416
BACON .271 -.123 .394
xBACON .317 -.041 .358
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 42.0 -3.7 45.7
Avg Exit Velocity 89.3 -0.9 90.2
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 21.4 -14.8 36.2
Barrel % 10.0 +0.5 9.5
Avg Launch Angle 17.4 +2.1 15.3
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 71.8 +0.2 71.6
Attack Angle 11° +1°
Ideal Attack Angle % 50.8 +1.4 49.4
Attack Direction -4° -4°
Swing Path - Tilt 32° -1° 32°
Swing Length 7.4 0.0 7.4
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 98.1 -0.6 98.7
Breaking Velocity 90.5 -0.1 90.6
Offspeed Velocity 89.8 -1.4 91.2
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 7 -3 10
Popup % 12.9 +4.3 8.6
Flyball % 25.7 -3.8 29.5
Line Drive % 12.9 -11.9 24.8
Groundball % 48.6 +11.5 37.1
Pull % 44.3 +11.0 33.3
Straight Away % 30.0 -5.2 35.2
Opposite Field % 25.7 -5.7 31.4
Weak Contact % 2.9 -3.8 6.7
Pull Airball % 17.1 +0.9 16.2
Topped Contact % 32.9 +9.1 23.8
Under Contact % 27.1 +3.3 23.8
Flare/Burner Contact % 18.6 -7.1 25.7
Solid Contact % 4.3 -6.2 10.5
HR/FB % 22.2 +6.1 16.1
Popups 9 0 9
Flyballs 18 -13 31
Line Drives 9 -17 26
Groundballs 34 -5 39
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 46.9 -5.4 52.3
Out of Zone % 53.1 +5.4 47.7
Edge % 40.8 -3.5 44.3
Zone Swing % 67.1 -4.4 71.5
Out of Zone Swing % 31.2 -0.3 31.5
In Zone Contact % 76.3 -3.4 79.7
Out of Zone Contact % 50.7 +11.6 39.1
Whiff % 32.5 +0.6 31.9
First Strike % 60.4 -6.1 66.5
First Pitch Swing % 34.2 -7.3 41.5
Swing % 48.1 -4.3 52.4
Meatball Swing % 64.7 -17.0 81.7
Meatball % 7.7 -0.1 7.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 23.7 +3.4 20.3
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 49.3 -11.6 60.9
In Zone 207 -193 400
Out of Zone 234 -131 365
Edge 180 -159 339
In Zone Swings 139 -147 286
Out of Zone Swings 73 -42 115
In Zone Swing & Misses 33 -25 58
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 36 -34 70
Basic
Pitches 441 -324 765
PA 111 -77 188
AB 100 -71 171
Hits 19 -22 41
Singles 14 -9 23
Doubles 1 -11 12
Triples 0 -1 1
Home Runs 4 -1 5
Walks 11 -5 16
Strikeouts 30 -37 67
K% 27.0 -8.6 35.6
BB% 9.9 +1.4 8.5
HBP 0 0 0
Batted Balls 70 -35 105
Number of Fastballs 250 -200 450
Number of Offspeed 30 -13 43
Number of Breaking 161 -110 271
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2025 Shades 188 .311 90 32 35.6 98 34 34.7
2026 Shades 110 .273 46 3 6.5 64 27 42.2
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2025 199 14.7 55.3% 0.0% 97 18.5 8.2% 0.0%
2026 145 15.9 34.5% 0.0% 45 18.7 2.2% 2.2%

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Pitch Distribution