P | Chicago Cubs
Bats/Throws: R/R | 5' 11" 160 lbs | Age: 26
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 0 1 6.14 10 0 1 14.2 16 1.77
2025 1 6 2.91 54 0 22 52.2 61 1.14
2026 2 2 5.14 24 0 3 21 24 1.48
4 Seasons 8 12 4.09 115 0 26 116.2 134 1.31
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 10 0-1 6.14 14.2 16 1.77
2025 54 1-6 2.91 52.2 61 1.14
2026 24 2-2 5.14 21 24 1.48
4 Seasons 115 8-12 4.09 116.2 134 1.31
Player Apps
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Pitch Usage
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 LA Sweet-
Spot %		 xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2023 23 494 70 5 7.2 4.2 91.4 112.0 15.2 34.3 .217 .354 .303 .306 .363 47.1 27.7 11.8 4.45 3.93
2024 24 263 40 2 5.0 2.9 92.5 109.0 7.1 30.0 .230 .344 .336 .335 .353 45.0 23.2 17.4 6.14 4.64
2025 25 841 136 6 4.4 2.8 90.1 113.0 14.4 38.2 .225 .354 .284 .282 .357 48.5 28.4 7.4 2.90 3.26
2026 26 361 60 4 6.7 4.3 88.8 108.1 15.8 50.0 .243 .401 .360 .308 .385 30.0 26.1 7.6 5.14 3.98
Player 1959 306 17 5.6 3.4 90.5 113.0 13.9 38.6 .227 .362 .310 .300 .363 44.1 27.1 9.9
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .244 .407 .316 .316 .368 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Palencia relies on 4 pitches.
Four Seamer
(67.0%) ,
Slider
(25.2%) ,
Split Finger
(5.5%) ,
Sinker
(2.2%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2023 37.1 62.9 18.6 30.0 14.3 37.1 28.6 34.3 17.1 12.9 7.1 20.0 15.7 27.1
2024 52.5 47.5 15.0 27.5 5.0 30.0 52.5 17.5 22.5 22.5 7.5 7.5 30.0 10.0
2025 39.7 60.3 25.7 27.2 7.4 33.1 39.7 27.2 16.9 18.4 4.4 16.2 21.3 22.8
2026 31.7 68.3 25.0 38.3 5.0 41.7 35.0 23.3 16.7 11.7 3.3 25.0 23.3 20.0
Player 39.2 60.8 22.5 30.1 8.2 35.3 37.9 26.8 17.6 16.3 5.2 17.6 21.6 21.6
MLB 44.1 55.9 24.2 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.5 5.8 16.8 19.8 19.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2023 4.3 25.7 27.1 22.9 11.4 7.2 4.2
2024 0.0 42.5 20.0 22.5 10.0 5.0 2.9
2025 5.1 29.4 25.0 25.7 10.3 4.4 2.8
2026 1.7 28.3 26.7 31.7 5.0 6.7 4.3
Player 3.6 30.1 25.2 25.8 9.5 5.6 3.4
MLB 4.0 32.2 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop		vs.
Comparable		Horizontal
Break		vs.
Comparable		Vertical
Break		vs. AvgHorizontal
Break		vs. Avg
2026 Split-Finger CHC R 20 89.6 30.5 -0.7 9.7ARM -2.4 3.5 -0.5 9.7ARM -1.5
2026 Sinker CHC R 8 99.7 15.9 -4.0 14.4ARM -0.5 11.6 -4.0 14.4ARM -0.6
2026 4-Seam Fastball CHC R 242 99.3 11.5 1.1 8.9ARM 0.8 16.2 0.6 8.9ARM 1.1
2026 Slider CHC R 91 90.4 29.9 -0.8 1.6GLV -1.9 3.4 -2.0 1.6GLV -2.0
2025 Split-Finger CHC R 39 88.3 31.1 -0.7 10.4ARM -1.4 3.9 -0.8 10.4ARM -0.9
2025 Slider CHC R 194 88.5 33.7 1.0 2.4GLV -1.7 1.1 0.7 2.4GLV -1.8
2025 4-Seam Fastball CHC R 602 99.6 12.3 0.4 11.9ARM 3.3 15.4 -0.4 11.9ARM 4.3
2025 Sinker CHC R 3 97.9 18.2 -3.3 14.9ARM -0.7 10.0 -2.6 14.9ARM -0.2
2025 Curveball CHC R 3 82.2 38.4 -12.0 2.1GLV -7.0 1.7 -11.9 2.1GLV -6.9
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 0.1 0 242 67.0 61 .255 .382 .305 21.9 26.2 21.6 .258 .442 .331 27.5
2026 Slider -3.8 -3 91 25.2 22 .350 .700 .466 46.3 31.8 28.0 .204 .292 .257 30.8
2026 Split-Finger -9.2 -2 20 5.5 3 .667 1.667 .967 44.4 0.0 0.0 .331 .651 .419 33.3
2026 Sinker 5.9 0 8 2.2 5 .200 .200 .180 16.7 20.0 50.0 .171 .241 .178 50.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.9 5 602 71.6 148 .216 .366 .293 23.3 25.7 21.6 .233 .392 .302 55.7
2025 Slider 0.3 1 194 23.1 58 .259 .389 .323 39.4 36.2 30.9 .204 .275 .242 33.3
2025 Split-Finger 1.6 1 39 4.6 7 .143 .143 .129 37.5 28.6 11.1 .251 .278 .231 20.0
2025 Sinker 5.0 0 3 0.4 -- -- -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- --
2025 Curveball 9.1 0 3 0.4 1 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 -- .067 .091 .065 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 4-Seam Fastball 242 99.3 95 18.3 1:15 1:00 15
2026 Split-Finger 14 89.4 78 10.5 1:30 2:15 -45
2026 Slider 91 90.4 26 3.3 11:00 10:45 15
2025 4-Seam Fastball 601 99.6 99 19.4 1:30 1:15 15
2025 Split-Finger 35 88.2 90 12.0 1:45 2:30 -45
2025 Slider 194 88.5 24 3.5 10:15 9:00 75
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2023 119 494 2 5 -2 -3 2
2024 69 263 1 2 -2 -2 -1
2025 214 841 4 12 -5 -3 7
2026 91 361 0 0 -2 -2 -4
Player 493 1,959 7 19 -12 7 3
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2023 494 47.6 70.6 77.1 27.4 50.7 41.3 56.3 48.0 30.8 7.7 76.3
2024 263 53.6 66.7 78.7 21.3 46.2 40.3 53.6 45.6 28.3 9.5 80.0
2025 841 53.7 71.7 78.7 27.0 53.3 44.2 59.8 51.0 27.5 8.1 86.8
2026 361 47.6 72.7 81.6 31.2 50.8 43.8 62.6 51.0 28.3 6.4 73.9
Player 1,959 51.0 70.9 78.8 27.2 51.3 42.9 58.6 49.5 28.6 7.9 81.2
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.7 28.6 57.9 42.6 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed 		xERA Fastball
MPH 		Fastball
Spin 		Curve
Spin 		Avg
EV 		Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit% 		GB% Extension
2023 97 78 92
2024 98 46 87
2025 68 75 55 63 82 99 68 29 33 68 86 63 95 2 37 69
2026 98 73 88
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted
Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2023 23.71 3 2.9 0 1 2 1 33.3
2024 -- 0 1.0 -1 2 1 0 --
2025 22.47 6 3.6 2 4 4 1 16.7
2026 23.91 4 2.8 1 3 2 1 25.0
Player 23.20 13 10.2 3 10 9 3 23.1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted
Year HR
2023 3 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
2024 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1
2025 6 3 4 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 4 6 2 6 4 2 2 2 2 5 3 5 5 5 2 2 4 5 3 5 5
2026 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 1 2 2 3 1 2
Player 13 9 10 9 9 11 10 10 10 7 10 14 8 12 11 8 8 9 10 13 11 13 13 13 9 7 10 11 11 10 11
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023
Results
BA .289 +.065 ↑ .224 -.026 ↓ .250 +.034 ↑ .216
xBA .243 +.018 ↑ .225 -.005 ↓ .230 +.013 ↑ .217
OBP .348 +.060 ↑ .288 -.103 ↓ .391 +.069 ↑ .322
xOBP .301 +.016 ↑ .285 -.090 ↓ .375 +.051 ↑ .324
SLG .494 +.132 ↑ .362 +.023 ↑ .339 -.014 ↓ .353
xSLG .401 +.047 ↑ .354 +.010 ↑ .344 -.010 ↓ .354
ISO .205 +.067 ↑ .138 +.049 ↑ .089 -.048 ↓ .137
xISO .159 +.029 ↑ .130 +.016 ↑ .114 -.023 ↓ .137
BABIP .357 +.059 ↑ .298 -.052 ↓ .350 +.062 ↑ .288
wOBA .360 +.076 ↑ .284 -.052 ↓ .336 +.033 ↑ .303
xwOBA .308 +.026 ↑ .282 -.053 ↓ .335 +.029 ↑ .306
wOBAcon .464 +.104 ↑ .360 +.005 ↑ .355 -.001 ↓ .356
xwOBAcon .385 +.028 ↑ .357 +.004 ↑ .353 -.010 ↓ .363
BACON .400 +.076 ↑ .324 -.026 ↓ .350 +.031 ↑ .319
xBACON .340 +.016 ↑ .324 +.002 ↑ .322 -.001 ↓ .323
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 30.0 -18.5 ↓ 48.5 +3.5 ↑ 45.0 -2.1 ↓ 47.1
Avg Exit Velocity 88.8 -1.3 ↓ 90.1 -2.4 ↓ 92.5 +1.1 ↑ 91.4
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 50.0 +11.8 ↑ 38.2 +8.2 ↑ 30.0 -4.3 ↓ 34.3
Barrel % 6.7 +2.3 ↑ 4.4 -0.6 ↓ 5.0 -2.2 ↓ 7.2
Avg Launch Angle 15.8 +1.4 ↑ 14.4 +7.3 ↑ 7.1 -8.1 ↓ 15.2
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.0 +1.1 ↑ 70.9 0.0 70.9 -0.3 ↓ 71.2
Attack Angle 7° -1° ↓ 8° +2° ↑ 6° -2° ↓ 9°
Ideal Attack Angle % 47.4 -4.0 ↓ 51.4 +6.9 ↑ 44.5 +2.1 ↑ 42.4
Attack Direction 2° -1° ↓ 3° 0° ↓ 3° +3° ↑ 1°
Swing Path - Tilt 31° +1° ↑ 30° -1° ↓ 32° 0° ↑ 31°
Swing Length 7.1 +0.1 ↑ 7.0 -0.1 ↓ 7.1 0.0 7.1
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 99.3 -0.3 ↓ 99.6 +1.5 ↑ 98.1 -0.3 ↓ 98.4
Breaking Velocity 90.4 +2.0 ↑ 88.4 -1.1 ↓ 89.5 +0.5 ↑ 89.0
Offspeed Velocity 89.6 +1.3 ↑ 88.3 -0.7 ↓ 89.0 +1.8 ↑ 87.2
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 4 -2 ↓ 6 +4 ↑ 2 -3 ↓ 5
Popup % 5.0 -2.4 ↓ 7.4 +2.4 ↑ 5.0 -9.3 ↓ 14.3
Flyball % 25.0 -0.7 ↓ 25.7 +10.7 ↑ 15.0 -3.6 ↓ 18.6
Line Drive % 38.3 +11.1 ↑ 27.2 -0.3 ↓ 27.5 -2.5 ↓ 30.0
Groundball % 31.7 -8.0 ↓ 39.7 -12.8 ↓ 52.5 +15.4 ↑ 37.1
Pull % 41.7 +8.6 ↑ 33.1 +3.1 ↑ 30.0 -7.1 ↓ 37.1
Straight Away % 35.0 -4.7 ↓ 39.7 -12.8 ↓ 52.5 +23.9 ↑ 28.6
Opposite Field % 23.3 -3.9 ↓ 27.2 +9.7 ↑ 17.5 -16.8 ↓ 34.3
Weak Contact % 1.7 -3.4 ↓ 5.1 +5.1 ↑ 0.0 -4.3 ↓ 4.3
Pull Airball % 25.0 +8.8 ↑ 16.2 +8.7 ↑ 7.5 -12.5 ↓ 20.0
Topped Contact % 28.3 -1.1 ↓ 29.4 -13.1 ↓ 42.5 +16.8 ↑ 25.7
Under Contact % 26.7 +1.7 ↑ 25.0 +5.0 ↑ 20.0 -7.1 ↓ 27.1
Flare/Burner Contact % 31.7 +6.0 ↑ 25.7 +3.2 ↑ 22.5 -0.4 ↓ 22.9
Solid Contact % 5.0 -5.3 ↓ 10.3 +0.3 ↑ 10.0 -1.4 ↓ 11.4
HR/FB % 26.7 +12.4 ↑ 14.3 +14.3 ↑ 0.0 -23.1 ↓ 23.1
Popups 3 -7 ↓ 10 +8 ↑ 2 -8 ↓ 10
Flyballs 15 -20 ↓ 35 +29 ↑ 6 -7 ↓ 13
Line Drives 23 -14 ↓ 37 +26 ↑ 11 -10 ↓ 21
Groundballs 19 -35 ↓ 54 +33 ↑ 21 -5 ↓ 26
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 47.6 -6.1 ↓ 53.7 +0.1 ↑ 53.6 +6.0 ↑ 47.6
Out of Zone % 52.4 +6.1 ↑ 46.3 -0.1 ↓ 46.4 -6.0 ↓ 52.4
Edge % 43.8 -0.4 ↓ 44.2 +3.9 ↑ 40.3 -1.0 ↓ 41.3
Zone Swing % 72.7 +1.0 ↑ 71.7 +5.0 ↑ 66.7 -3.9 ↓ 70.6
Out of Zone Swing % 31.2 +4.2 ↑ 27.0 +5.7 ↑ 21.3 -6.1 ↓ 27.4
In Zone Contact % 81.6 +2.9 ↑ 78.7 0.0 78.7 +1.6 ↑ 77.1
Out of Zone Contact % 50.8 -2.5 ↓ 53.3 +7.1 ↑ 46.2 -4.5 ↓ 50.7
Whiff % 28.3 +0.8 ↑ 27.5 -0.8 ↓ 28.3 -2.5 ↓ 30.8
First Strike % 62.6 +2.8 ↑ 59.8 +6.2 ↑ 53.6 -2.7 ↓ 56.3
First Pitch Swing % 40.7 +7.5 ↑ 33.2 -4.5 ↓ 37.7 -1.8 ↓ 39.5
Swing % 51.0 0.0 51.0 +5.4 ↑ 45.6 -2.4 ↓ 48.0
Meatball Swing % 73.9 -12.9 ↓ 86.8 +6.8 ↑ 80.0 +3.7 ↑ 76.3
Meatball % 6.4 -1.7 ↓ 8.1 -1.4 ↓ 9.5 +1.8 ↑ 7.7
Zone Swing & Miss % 18.4 -2.9 ↓ 21.3 0.0 21.3 -1.6 ↓ 22.9
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 49.2 +2.5 ↑ 46.7 -7.1 ↓ 53.8 +4.5 ↑ 49.3
In Zone 172 -280 ↓ 452 +311 ↑ 141 -94 ↓ 235
Out of Zone 189 -200 ↓ 389 +267 ↑ 122 -137 ↓ 259
Edge 158 -214 ↓ 372 +266 ↑ 106 -98 ↓ 204
In Zone Swings 125 -199 ↓ 324 +230 ↑ 94 -72 ↓ 166
Out of Zone Swings 59 -46 ↓ 105 +79 ↑ 26 -45 ↓ 71
In Zone Swing & Misses 23 -46 ↓ 69 +49 ↑ 20 -18 ↓ 38
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 29 -20 ↓ 49 +35 ↑ 14 -21 ↓ 35
Basic
Pitches 361 -480 ↓ 841 +578 ↑ 263 -231 ↓ 494
PA 92 -123 ↓ 215 +146 ↑ 69 -50 ↓ 119
AB 83 -113 ↓ 196 +140 ↑ 56 -46 ↓ 102
Hits 24 -20 ↓ 44 +30 ↑ 14 -8 ↓ 22
Singles 15 -15 ↓ 30 +21 ↑ 9 -6 ↓ 15
Doubles 5 -1 ↓ 6 +1 ↑ 5 +2 ↑ 3
Triples 0 -3 ↓ 3 +3 ↑ 0 -1 ↓ 1
Home Runs 4 -1 ↓ 5 +5 ↑ 0 -3 ↓ 3
Walks 7 -9 ↓ 16 +4 ↑ 12 -2 ↓ 14
Strikeouts 24 -37 ↓ 61 +45 ↑ 16 -17 ↓ 33
K% 26.1 -2.3 ↓ 28.4 +5.2 ↑ 23.2 -4.5 ↓ 27.7
BB% 7.6 +0.2 ↑ 7.4 -10.0 ↓ 17.4 +5.6 ↑ 11.8
HBP 1 -1 ↓ 2 +1 ↑ 1 -1 ↓ 2
Batted Balls 60 -76 ↓ 136 +96 ↑ 40 -30 ↓ 70
Fastball Percent 69.3 -2.6 ↓ 71.9 +7.3 ↑ 64.6 -2.6 ↓ 67.2
Offspeed Percent 5.5 +0.9 ↑ 4.6 -5.7 ↓ 10.3 +9.1 ↑ 1.2
Breaking Percent 25.2 +1.8 ↑ 23.4 -1.7 ↓ 25.1 -6.5 ↓ 31.6
Number of Fastballs 250 -355 ↓ 605 +435 ↑ 170 -162 ↓ 332
Number of Offspeed 20 -19 ↓ 39 +12 ↑ 27 +21 ↑ 6
Number of Breaking 91 -106 ↓ 197 +131 ↑ 66 -90 ↓ 156
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2023 Shades 119 .303 69 3 4.3 50 2 4.0
2024 Shades 69 .336 40 0 0.0 29 5 17.2
2025 Shades 214 .284 109 0 0.0 105 35 33.3
2026 Shades 91 .360 45 0 0.0 46 20 43.5
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2023 116 17.7 5.2% 0.0% 93 20.0 2.2% 0.0%
2024 62 16.3 30.6% 3.2% 51 18.7 3.9% 3.9%
2025 212 17.2 4.2% 0.9% 129 19.2 0.8% 0.8%
2026 83 18.0 6.0% 2.4% 53 19.9 0.0% 7.5%

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Pitch Distribution

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