P | Tampa Bay Rays
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 2" 195 lbs | Age: 28
Draft: 2019 | Rd. 19, No. 580, Cleveland Indians | James Madison University
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 5 2 3.09 57 0 1 67 56 1.01
2024 5 2 2.67 68 0 1 70.2 63 0.96
2025 2 5 5.90 41 0 0 39.2 35 1.36
3 Seasons 12 9 3.55 166 0 2 177.1 154 1.07
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 57 5-2 3.09 67 56 1.01
2024 68 5-2 2.67 70.2 63 0.96
2025 41 2-5 5.90 39.2 35 1.36
3 Seasons 166 12-9 3.55 177.1 154 1.07
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2023 25 1066 195 7 3.6 2.5 87.0 110.0 10.3 32.3 .233 .331 .264 .282 .310 32.8 20.3 5.4 3.09 3.30
2024 26 1033 201 10 5.0 3.6 86.9 114.9 4.9 29.9 .241 .365 .268 .283 .345 36.8 22.7 3.2 2.67 3.31
2025 27 588 127 20 15.7 11.7 91.1 114.5 9.5 40.2 .297 .556 .364 .377 .462 52.8 20.5 5.3 5.90 6.28
Player 2687 523 37 7.1 5.1 88.0 114.9 8.1 33.3 .251 .398 .289 .305 .360 39.2 21.2 4.6
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .245 .404 .315 .315 .368 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 4 pitches.
Sinker
(58.8%) ,
Sweeper
(19.7%) ,
Cutter
(13.4%) ,
Four Seamer
(8.0%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2023 48.2 51.8 19.0 25.1 7.7 40.5 38.5 21.0 23.6 17.9 6.7 16.9 20.5 14.4
2024 56.2 43.8 17.4 21.9 4.5 34.3 42.8 22.9 22.4 26.9 7.0 11.9 15.9 15.9
2025 44.1 55.9 24.4 26.8 4.7 32.3 45.7 22.0 17.3 20.5 6.3 15.0 25.2 15.7
Player 50.3 49.7 19.7 24.3 5.7 36.1 41.9 22.0 21.6 22.0 6.7 14.5 19.9 15.3
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.0 24.7 7.1 37.4 37.4 25.1 20.6 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2023 2.6 37.4 24.6 25.1 6.7 3.6 2.5
2024 7.5 38.8 18.9 24.4 4.5 5.0 3.6
2025 4.7 32.3 15.7 23.6 7.1 15.7 11.7
Player 5.0 36.7 20.3 24.5 5.9 7.1 5.1
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 Sinker TB R 346 91.0 34.5 -1.3 16.8ARM 0.6 -1.4 8.8 16.8ARM 1.7
2025 4-Seam Fastball TB R 47 92.2 21.7 -1.7 10.4ARM -1.7 10.4 -5.4 10.4ARM 2.8
2025 Cutter TB R 79 89.5 26.0 0.1 1.9ARM 0.0 8.0 -0.3 1.9ARM -4.1
2025 Sweeper TB R 116 78.7 39.3 -2.7 17.7GLV 2.5 5.1 -4.0 17.7GLV 3.8
2024 4-Seam Fastball TB R 23 92.0 20.3 0.8 9.8ARM -1.8 12.2 -3.5 9.8ARM 2.2
2024 Sweeper TB R 288 77.3 39.1 -0.3 19.6GLV 0.8 7.2 -5.7 19.6GLV 5.5
2024 Cutter TB R 87 87.8 27.5 -0.1 0.4GLV 0.2 7.9 -0.4 0.4GLV -2.3
2024 Sinker TB R 635 90.8 34.4 -1.1 17.7ARM 0.8 -1.0 8.2 17.7ARM 2.8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 Sinker -1.7 -6 346 58.8 107 .309 .577 .413 12.7 10.3 18.6 .339 .604 .423 55.7
2025 Sweeper -5.0 -6 116 19.7 33 .303 .576 .371 27.3 27.3 16.1 .241 .483 .305 41.7
2025 Cutter -3.2 -3 79 13.4 15 .333 .933 .520 30.3 26.7 57.1 .343 .851 .499 63.6
2025 4-Seam Fastball 4.4 2 47 8.0 15 .000 .000 .000 57.1 73.3 27.5 .102 .116 .096 25.0
2024 Sinker 1.6 10 635 61.5 179 .255 .376 .304 13.9 16.8 18.8 .263 .396 .310 43.5
2024 Sweeper 0.8 2 288 27.9 71 .171 .271 .198 30.9 32.4 16.0 .190 .262 .204 17.0
2024 Cutter 0.4 0 87 8.4 20 .158 .316 .237 20.9 30.0 17.1 .245 .361 .284 30.8
2024 4-Seam Fastball -10.0 -2 23 2.2 7 .286 .714 .414 40.0 57.1 20.0 .249 .679 .389 66.7
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 Cutter 79 89.5 51 7.6 1:30 12:30 60
2025 4-Seam Fastball 46 92.2 81 14.4 2:00 1:45 15
2025 Sinker 317 91.0 84 17.9 2:15 3:15 -60
2025 Sweeper 111 78.7 74 19.1 9:00 9:15 -15
2024 Cutter 87 87.8 45 7.2 1:00 11:45 75
2024 4-Seam Fastball 22 91.9 78 15.2 1:45 1:30 15
2024 Sinker 614 90.8 82 18.9 2:15 3:15 -60
2024 Sweeper 287 77.3 74 21.5 9:00 9:30 -30
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2023 275 1,066 8 13 -4 -8 9
2024 277 1,033 6 11 -2 -4 10
2025 170 588 -15 8 -3 -2 -12
Player 722 2,687 -1 31 -10 -1 7
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2023 1,066 51.8 62.3 82.8 25.9 64.7 40.6 63.0 44.7 22.2 9.1 72.2
2024 1,033 55.9 59.6 85.8 26.1 63.0 42.7 70.1 44.8 20.1 8.4 64.4
2025 588 54.3 62.7 82.5 27.5 68.9 41.0 67.6 46.6 21.2 11.7 76.8
Player 2,687 53.9 61.3 83.9 26.3 65.0 41.5 66.9 45.2 21.2 9.4 70.8
MLB 48.9 67.0 82.5 28.4 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2023 85 65 88 94 68 92 95 87 87 29 89 21 16 9 30 98
2024 78 45 67 78 85 83 89 89 67 48 99 9 20 10 30 98
2025 10 19 96
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2023 25.47 2 2.2 0 2 1 1 50.0
2024 23.38 7 6.6 0 3 5 3 42.9
2025 22.42 11 10.5 1 3 8 5 45.5
Player 23.06 20 19.3 1 8 14 9 45.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2023 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
2024 7 5 7 9 7 7 8 6 6 5 7 9 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 9 6 6 9 8 6 5 8 8 6 6 4
2025 11 7 10 8 11 12 9 8 10 10 12 11 11 13 12 8 11 9 9 12 9 10 13 13 9 10 10 13 11 12 12
Player 20 13 19 19 20 21 19 16 18 17 21 23 20 21 20 16 19 16 17 24 17 18 25 24 17 17 20 24 19 20 18
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023
Results
BA .281 +.055 .226 +.015 .211
xBA .297 +.056 .241 +.008 .233
OBP .316 +.052 .264 -.019 .283
xOBP .336 +.057 .279 -.023 .302
SLG .556 +.204 .352 +.045 .307
xSLG .556 +.191 .365 +.034 .331
ISO .275 +.149 .126 +.030 .096
xISO .260 +.136 .124 +.026 .098
BABIP .293 +.022 .271 +.007 .264
wOBA .364 +.096 .268 +.004 .264
xwOBA .377 +.094 .283 +.001 .282
wOBACON .444 +.119 .325 +.040 .285
xwOBACON .462 +.117 .345 +.035 .310
BACON .354 +.058 .296 +.024 .272
xBACON .382 +.065 .317 +.017 .300
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 52.8 +16.0 36.8 +4.0 32.8
Avg Exit Velocity 91.1 +4.2 86.9 -0.1 87.0
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 40.2 +10.3 29.9 -2.4 32.3
Barrel % 15.7 +10.7 5.0 +1.4 3.6
Avg Launch Angle 9.5 +4.6 4.9 -5.4 10.3
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.3 +0.9 71.4 +1.1 70.3
Attack Angle -2° -1°
Ideal Attack Angle % 42.9 +2.0 40.9 -0.4 41.3
Attack Direction +3° +2° -1°
Swing Path - Tilt 33° 33° 33°
Swing Length 7.1 -0.1 7.2 0.0 7.2
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 90.9 +0.4 90.5 +0.5 90.0
Breaking Velocity 78.7 +1.4 77.3 +1.0 76.3
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 -- -- -- --
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 20 +10 10 +3 7
Popup % 4.7 +0.2 4.5 -3.2 7.7
Flyball % 24.4 +7.0 17.4 -1.6 19.0
Line Drive % 26.8 +4.9 21.9 -3.2 25.1
Groundball % 44.1 -12.1 56.2 +8.0 48.2
Pull % 32.3 -2.0 34.3 -6.2 40.5
Straight Away % 45.7 +2.9 42.8 +4.3 38.5
Opposite Field % 22.0 -0.9 22.9 +1.9 21.0
Weak Contact % 4.7 -2.8 7.5 +4.9 2.6
Pull Airball % 15.0 +3.1 11.9 -5.0 16.9
Topped Contact % 32.3 -6.5 38.8 +1.4 37.4
Under Contact % 15.7 -3.2 18.9 -5.7 24.6
Flare/Burner Contact % 23.6 -0.8 24.4 -0.7 25.1
Solid Contact % 7.1 +2.6 4.5 -2.2 6.7
HR/FB % 35.5 +15.5 20.0 +14.6 5.4
Popups 6 -3 9 -6 15
Flyballs 31 -4 35 -2 37
Line Drives 34 -10 44 -5 49
Groundballs 56 -57 113 +19 94
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 54.3 -1.6 55.9 +4.1 51.8
Out of Zone % 45.7 +1.6 44.1 -4.1 48.2
Edge % 41.0 -1.7 42.7 +2.1 40.6
Zone Swing % 62.7 +3.1 59.6 -2.7 62.3
Out of Zone Swing % 27.5 +1.4 26.1 +0.2 25.9
In Zone Contact % 82.5 -3.3 85.8 +3.0 82.8
Out of Zone Contact % 68.9 +5.9 63.0 -1.7 64.7
Whiff % 21.2 +1.1 20.1 -2.1 22.2
First Strike % 67.6 -2.5 70.1 +7.1 63.0
First Pitch Swing % 32.9 +7.4 25.5 +0.5 25.0
Swing % 46.6 +1.8 44.8 +0.1 44.7
Meatball Swing % 76.8 +12.4 64.4 -7.8 72.2
Meatball % 11.7 +3.3 8.4 -0.7 9.1
Zone Swing & Miss % 17.5 +3.3 14.2 -3.0 17.2
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 31.1 -5.9 37.0 +1.7 35.3
In Zone 319 -258 577 +25 552
Out of Zone 269 -187 456 -58 514
Edge 241 -200 441 +8 433
In Zone Swings 200 -144 344 0 344
Out of Zone Swings 74 -45 119 -14 133
In Zone Swing & Misses 35 -14 49 -10 59
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 23 -21 44 -3 47
Basic
Pitches 588 -445 1,033 -33 1,066
PA 171 -107 278 +2 276
AB 160 -101 261 +10 251
Hits 45 -14 59 +6 53
Singles 25 -17 42 +9 33
Doubles 7 -1 8 -10 18
Triples 2 0 2 +2 0
Home Runs 11 +4 7 +5 2
Walks 9 0 9 -6 15
Strikeouts 35 -28 63 +7 56
K% 20.5 -2.2 22.7 +2.4 20.3
BB% 5.3 +2.1 3.2 -2.2 5.4
HBP 0 -5 5 -5 10
Batted Balls 127 -74 201 +6 195
Number of Fastballs 472 -273 745 +115 630
Number of Offspeed 0 0 0 0 0
Number of Breaking 0 0 0 0 0
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2023 Shades 275 .264 172 8 4.7 103 39 37.9
2024 Shades 277 .268 170 21 12.4 107 64 59.8
2025 Shades 170 .364 97 2 2.1 73 33 45.2
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2023 284 15.2 45.1% 0.7% 238 17.9 7.1% 0.4%
2024 305 15.1 44.9% 0.0% 193 17.9 6.2% 0.5%
2025 170 15.4 37.6% 1.2% 101 17.8 5.0% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution