P | Tampa Bay Rays
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 2" 195 lbs | Age: 28
Draft: 2019 | Rd. 19, No. 580, Cleveland Indians | James Madison University
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 5 2 2.67 68 0 1 70.2 63 0.96
2025 2 5 5.90 41 0 0 39.2 35 1.36
2026 2 1 4.38 11 0 2 12.1 11 0.81
4 Seasons 14 10 3.61 177 0 4 189.2 165 1.05
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 68 5-2 2.67 70.2 63 0.96
2025 41 2-5 5.90 39.2 35 1.36
2026 11 2-1 4.38 12.1 11 0.81
4 Seasons 177 14-10 3.61 189.2 165 1.05
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2023 25 1066 195 7 3.6 2.5 87.0 110.0 10.3 32.3 .230 .339 .264 .284 .313 32.8 20.3 5.4 3.09 3.35
2024 26 1033 201 10 5.0 3.6 86.9 114.9 4.9 29.9 .240 .373 .268 .288 .353 36.8 22.7 3.2 2.67 3.34
2025 27 588 127 20 15.7 11.7 91.1 114.5 9.5 40.2 .293 .573 .364 .381 .467 52.8 20.5 5.3 5.90 6.39
2026 28 194 31 3 9.7 6.4 91.0 107.7 -2.2 32.3 .260 .387 .214 .318 .382 51.6 23.4 8.5 4.38 4.02
Player 2881 554 40 7.2 5.2 88.1 114.9 7.5 33.2 .250 .406 .285 .309 .367 39.9 21.4 4.8
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .243 .408 .316 .316 .369 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
Sinker
(52.1%) ,
Changeup
(23.2%) ,
Sweeper
(17.0%) ,
Four Seamer
(6.2%) ,
Cutter
(1.5%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2023 48.2 51.8 19.0 25.1 7.7 40.5 38.5 21.0 23.6 17.9 6.7 16.9 20.5 14.4
2024 56.2 43.8 17.4 21.9 4.5 34.3 42.8 22.9 22.4 26.9 7.0 11.9 15.9 15.9
2025 44.1 55.9 24.4 26.8 4.7 32.3 45.7 22.0 17.3 20.5 6.3 15.0 25.2 15.7
2026 64.5 35.5 12.9 22.6 0.0 45.2 45.2 9.7 29.0 32.3 3.2 16.1 12.9 6.5
Player 51.1 48.9 19.3 24.2 5.4 36.6 42.1 21.3 22.0 22.6 6.5 14.6 19.5 14.8
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2023 2.6 37.4 24.6 25.1 6.7 3.6 2.5
2024 7.5 38.8 18.9 24.4 4.5 5.0 3.6
2025 4.7 32.3 15.7 23.6 7.1 15.7 11.7
2026 3.2 51.6 6.5 22.6 3.2 9.7 6.4
Player 4.9 37.5 19.5 24.4 5.8 7.2 5.2
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 4-Seam Fastball TB R 12 92.6 21.5 -1.0 12.8ARM 0.6 10.7 -5.4 12.8ARM 5.1
2026 Sweeper TB R 33 78.2 40.0 -1.2 18.9GLV 3.7 5.4 -4.1 18.9GLV 5.0
2026 Cutter TB R 3 89.1 25.4 0.7 0.6ARM -0.2 9.1 0.9 0.6ARM -2.9
2026 Sinker TB R 101 91.2 37.1 -0.3 16.4ARM 0.4 -4.0 11.8 16.4ARM 0.8
2026 Changeup TB R 45 85.5 46.2 0.2 12.3ARM -0.1 -8.3 12.2 12.3ARM -2.5
2025 4-Seam Fastball TB R 50 92.1 21.8 -1.4 10.0ARM -2.1 10.3 -5.5 10.0ARM 2.4
2025 Sweeper TB R 116 78.7 39.3 -2.7 17.7GLV 2.5 5.1 -4.1 17.7GLV 3.7
2025 Sinker TB R 347 91.0 34.4 -1.3 16.7ARM 0.6 -1.4 8.8 16.7ARM 1.6
2025 Cutter TB R 75 89.4 26.1 0.3 1.7ARM 0.0 7.9 -0.5 1.7ARM -3.9
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 Sinker 3.1 3 101 52.1 23 .150 .150 .248 25.0 17.4 19.0 .329 .471 .393 62.5
2026 Changeup 2.9 1 45 23.2 15 .067 .067 .129 30.8 26.7 20.0 .184 .224 .178 36.4
2026 Sweeper -4.6 -2 33 17.0 7 .286 .857 .464 23.1 42.9 17.6 .215 .472 .290 50.0
2026 4-Seam Fastball -6.0 -1 12 6.2 1 -- -- .700 20.0 0.0 0.0 -- -- .700 --
2026 Cutter -5.1 0 3 1.5 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
2025 Sinker -1.7 -6 347 59.0 107 .309 .577 .413 13.3 10.3 18.6 .334 .621 .426 55.7
2025 Sweeper -5.0 -6 116 19.7 33 .303 .576 .371 27.3 27.3 16.1 .240 .509 .313 41.7
2025 Cutter -3.8 -3 75 12.8 14 .357 1.000 .557 31.3 28.6 57.1 .295 .835 .466 60.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball 4.7 2 50 8.5 16 .000 .000 .000 52.4 68.8 27.5 .153 .184 .148 40.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 35 85.5 76 16.0 3:00 4:15 -75
2026 4-Seam Fastball 12 92.6 81 16.6 2:15 1:45 30
2026 Sinker 88 91.2 82 18.3 2:30 3:30 -60
2026 Sweeper 33 78.2 74 20.2 9:00 9:15 -15
2025 Cutter 75 89.4 50 7.4 1:15 12:30 45
2025 4-Seam Fastball 49 92.1 80 14.0 2:00 1:30 30
2025 Sinker 318 91.0 84 17.9 2:15 3:15 -60
2025 Sweeper 111 78.7 74 19.1 9:00 9:15 -15
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2023 275 1,066 8 13 -4 -8 9
2024 277 1,033 6 11 -2 -4 10
2025 170 588 -15 8 -3 -2 -12
2026 46 194 -1 4 0 -1 2
Player 768 2,881 -2 35 -10 -2 9
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2023 1,066 51.7 62.3 82.8 26.0 64.9 40.6 63.0 44.7 22.2 9.1 72.2
2024 1,033 55.9 59.6 85.8 26.1 63.0 42.8 70.1 44.8 20.1 8.4 64.4
2025 588 54.3 62.7 82.5 27.5 68.9 41.2 67.6 46.6 21.2 11.7 76.8
2026 194 46.4 63.3 87.7 33.7 51.4 40.7 68.1 47.4 26.1 9.3 66.7
Player 2,881 53.3 61.4 84.1 26.9 63.8 41.5 66.9 45.3 21.5 9.4 70.5
MLB 48.8 67.0 82.6 28.5 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.4 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2023 74 77 64 83 9 30 87 16 21 29 89 95 87 78 98
2024 79 83 65 77 10 30 89 20 9 48 99 89 67 93 98
2025 10 19 96
2026 67 79 20 80 53 11 8 20 75 54 55 55 33 7 98 94
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2023 25.47 2 2.2 0 2 1 1 50.0
2024 23.38 7 6.6 0 3 5 3 42.9
2025 22.42 11 10.5 1 3 8 5 45.5
2026 20.28 1 1.0 0 1 1 0 0.0
Player 22.93 21 20.3 1 9 15 9 42.9
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2023 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
2024 7 5 7 9 7 7 8 6 6 5 7 9 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 9 6 6 9 8 6 5 8 8 6 6 4
2025 11 7 10 8 11 12 9 8 10 10 12 11 11 13 12 8 11 9 9 12 9 10 13 13 9 10 10 13 11 12 12
2026 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Player 21 15 20 19 21 22 20 17 19 18 22 24 21 22 21 17 20 17 18 25 18 19 26 25 18 18 21 25 20 21 19
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023
Results
BA .143 -.138 .281 +.055 .226 +.015 .211
xBA .260 -.033 .293 +.053 .240 +.010 .230
OBP .234 -.082 .316 +.052 .264 -.019 .283
xOBP .341 +.009 .332 +.053 .279 -.021 .300
SLG .238 -.318 .556 +.204 .352 +.045 .307
xSLG .387 -.186 .573 +.200 .373 +.034 .339
ISO .095 -.180 .275 +.149 .126 +.030 .096
xISO .127 -.153 .280 +.148 .132 +.023 .109
BABIP .167 -.126 .293 +.022 .271 +.007 .264
wOBA .214 -.150 .364 +.096 .268 +.004 .264
xwOBA .318 -.063 .381 +.093 .288 +.004 .284
wOBAcon .225 -.219 .444 +.119 .325 +.040 .285
xwOBAcon .382 -.085 .467 +.114 .353 +.040 .313
BACON .194 -.160 .354 +.058 .296 +.024 .272
xBACON .356 -.020 .376 +.060 .316 +.020 .296
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 51.6 -1.2 52.8 +16.0 36.8 +4.0 32.8
Avg Exit Velocity 91.0 -0.1 91.1 +4.2 86.9 -0.1 87.0
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 32.3 -7.9 40.2 +10.3 29.9 -2.4 32.3
Barrel % 9.7 -6.0 15.7 +10.7 5.0 +1.4 3.6
Avg Launch Angle -2.2 -11.7 9.5 +4.6 4.9 -5.4 10.3
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.9 +0.5 72.4 +1.0 71.4 +0.9 70.5
Attack Angle +3° -2° -1°
Ideal Attack Angle % 49.4 +7.0 42.4 +1.5 40.9 -0.2 41.1
Attack Direction -2° -6° +3° +2° -1°
Swing Path - Tilt 36° +3° 33° 33° 33°
Swing Length 7.4 +0.3 7.1 -0.1 7.2 0.0 7.2
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 91.3 +0.4 90.9 +0.4 90.5 +0.5 90.0
Breaking Velocity 78.2 -0.5 78.7 +1.4 77.3 +1.0 76.3
Offspeed Velocity 85.5 -- -- -- -- -- --
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 3 -17 20 +10 10 +3 7
Popup % 0.0 -4.7 4.7 +0.2 4.5 -3.2 7.7
Flyball % 12.9 -11.5 24.4 +7.0 17.4 -1.6 19.0
Line Drive % 22.6 -4.2 26.8 +4.9 21.9 -3.2 25.1
Groundball % 64.5 +20.4 44.1 -12.1 56.2 +8.0 48.2
Pull % 45.2 +12.9 32.3 -2.0 34.3 -6.2 40.5
Straight Away % 45.2 -0.5 45.7 +2.9 42.8 +4.3 38.5
Opposite Field % 9.7 -12.3 22.0 -0.9 22.9 +1.9 21.0
Weak Contact % 3.2 -1.5 4.7 -2.8 7.5 +4.9 2.6
Pull Airball % 16.1 +1.1 15.0 +3.1 11.9 -5.0 16.9
Topped Contact % 51.6 +19.3 32.3 -6.5 38.8 +1.4 37.4
Under Contact % 6.5 -9.2 15.7 -3.2 18.9 -5.7 24.6
Flare/Burner Contact % 22.6 -1.0 23.6 -0.8 24.4 -0.7 25.1
Solid Contact % 3.2 -3.9 7.1 +2.6 4.5 -2.2 6.7
HR/FB % 25.0 -10.5 35.5 +15.5 20.0 +14.6 5.4
Popups 0 -6 6 -3 9 -6 15
Flyballs 4 -27 31 -4 35 -2 37
Line Drives 7 -27 34 -10 44 -5 49
Groundballs 20 -36 56 -57 113 +19 94
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 46.4 -7.9 54.3 -1.6 55.9 +4.2 51.7
Out of Zone % 53.6 +7.9 45.7 +1.6 44.1 -4.2 48.3
Edge % 40.7 -0.5 41.2 -1.6 42.8 +2.2 40.6
Zone Swing % 63.3 +0.6 62.7 +3.1 59.6 -2.7 62.3
Out of Zone Swing % 33.7 +6.2 27.5 +1.4 26.1 +0.1 26.0
In Zone Contact % 87.7 +5.2 82.5 -3.3 85.8 +3.0 82.8
Out of Zone Contact % 51.4 -17.5 68.9 +5.9 63.0 -1.9 64.9
Whiff % 26.1 +4.9 21.2 +1.1 20.1 -2.1 22.2
First Strike % 68.1 +0.5 67.6 -2.5 70.1 +7.1 63.0
First Pitch Swing % 36.2 +3.3 32.9 +7.4 25.5 +0.5 25.0
Swing % 47.4 +0.8 46.6 +1.8 44.8 +0.1 44.7
Meatball Swing % 66.7 -10.1 76.8 +12.4 64.4 -7.8 72.2
Meatball % 9.3 -2.4 11.7 +3.3 8.4 -0.7 9.1
Zone Swing & Miss % 12.3 -5.2 17.5 +3.3 14.2 -3.0 17.2
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 48.6 +17.5 31.1 -5.9 37.0 +1.9 35.1
In Zone 90 -229 319 -258 577 +26 551
Out of Zone 104 -165 269 -187 456 -59 515
Edge 79 -163 242 -200 442 +9 433
In Zone Swings 57 -143 200 -144 344 +1 343
Out of Zone Swings 35 -39 74 -45 119 -15 134
In Zone Swing & Misses 7 -28 35 -14 49 -10 59
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 17 -6 23 -21 44 -3 47
Basic
Pitches 194 -394 588 -445 1,033 -33 1,066
PA 47 -124 171 -107 278 +2 276
AB 42 -118 160 -101 261 +10 251
Hits 6 -39 45 -14 59 +6 53
Singles 4 -21 25 -17 42 +9 33
Doubles 1 -6 7 -1 8 -10 18
Triples 0 -2 2 0 2 +2 0
Home Runs 1 -10 11 +4 7 +5 2
Walks 4 -5 9 0 9 -6 15
Strikeouts 11 -24 35 -28 63 +7 56
K% 23.4 +2.9 20.5 -2.2 22.7 +2.4 20.3
BB% 8.5 +3.2 5.3 +2.1 3.2 -2.2 5.4
HBP 1 +1 0 -5 5 -5 10
Batted Balls 31 -96 127 -74 201 +6 195
Number of Fastballs 116 -356 472 -273 745 +115 630
Number of Offspeed 45 +45 0 0 0 0 0
Number of Breaking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2023 Shades 275 .264 172 8 4.7 103 39 37.9
2024 Shades 277 .268 170 21 12.4 107 64 59.8
2025 Shades 170 .364 97 2 2.1 73 33 45.2
2026 Shades 46 .214 26 4 15.4 20 7 35.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2023 284 15.2 45.1% 0.7% 238 17.9 7.1% 0.4%
2024 305 15.1 44.9% 0.0% 193 17.9 6.2% 0.5%
2025 170 15.4 37.6% 1.2% 101 17.8 5.0% 0.0%
2026 27 15.5 37.0% 0.0% 44 17.4 6.8% 4.5%

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Pitch Distribution