P | Tampa Bay Rays
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 2" 195 lbs | Age: 28
Draft: 2019 | Rd. 19, No. 580, Cleveland Indians | James Madison University
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 5 2 2.67 68 0 1 70.2 63 0.96
2025 2 5 5.90 41 0 0 39.2 35 1.36
2026 5 3 2.33 42 0 4 46.1 34 0.91
4 Seasons 17 12 3.30 208 0 6 223.2 188 1.04
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 68 5-2 2.67 70.2 63 0.96
2025 41 2-5 5.90 39.2 35 1.36
2026 42 5-3 2.33 46.1 34 0.91
4 Seasons 208 17-12 3.30 223.2 188 1.04
Player Apps
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Pitch Usage
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 LA Sweet-
Spot %		 xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2023 25 1066 195 7 3.6 2.5 87.0 110.0 10.3 32.3 .230 .339 .264 .284 .313 32.8 20.3 5.4 3.09 3.35
2024 26 1033 201 10 5.0 3.6 86.9 114.9 4.9 29.9 .240 .372 .268 .288 .353 36.8 22.7 3.2 2.67 3.34
2025 27 588 127 20 15.7 11.7 91.1 114.5 9.5 40.2 .293 .573 .364 .381 .467 52.8 20.5 5.3 5.90 6.39
2026 28 629 130 9 7.0 5.1 89.9 113.0 1.5 33.1 .280 .404 .251 .318 .372 46.2 19.4 4.6 2.33 4.25
Player 3316 653 46 7.1 5.1 88.4 114.9 6.8 33.2 .255 .407 .282 .310 .367 40.6 20.9 4.6
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .407 .316 .316 .369 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
Sinker
(59.6%) ,
Changeup
(24.8%) ,
Sweeper
(10.0%) ,
Four Seamer
(5.1%) ,
Cutter
(0.5%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2023 48.2 51.8 19.0 25.1 7.7 40.5 38.5 21.0 23.6 17.9 6.7 16.9 20.5 14.4
2024 56.2 43.8 17.4 21.9 4.5 34.3 42.8 22.9 22.4 26.9 7.0 11.9 15.9 15.9
2025 44.1 55.9 24.4 26.8 4.7 32.3 45.7 22.0 17.3 20.5 6.3 15.0 25.2 15.7
2026 59.2 40.8 12.3 27.7 0.8 40.8 45.4 13.8 29.2 27.7 2.3 11.5 17.7 11.5
Player 52.1 47.9 18.2 25.0 4.7 37.1 42.6 20.4 23.1 23.1 5.8 13.9 19.4 14.5
MLB 44.1 55.9 24.2 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.8 16.8 19.7 19.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2023 2.6 37.4 24.6 25.1 6.7 3.6 2.5
2024 7.5 38.8 18.9 24.4 4.5 5.0 3.6
2025 4.7 32.3 15.7 23.6 7.1 15.7 11.7
2026 3.8 43.8 11.5 30.0 2.3 7.0 5.1
Player 4.7 38.1 18.5 25.6 5.2 7.1 5.1
MLB 4.0 32.3 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop		vs.
Comparable		Horizontal
Break		vs.
Comparable		Vertical
Break		vs. AvgHorizontal
Break		vs. Avg
2026 4-Seam Fastball TB R 32 93.0 21.6 -1.3 12.8ARM -0.3 10.3 -5.4 12.8ARM 5.0
2026 Sweeper TB R 63 78.4 39.0 -1.6 18.9GLV 3.9 6.1 -5.1 18.9GLV 5.2
2026 Cutter TB R 3 89.1 25.4 1.1 0.6ARM 0.8 9.1 1.0 0.6ARM -2.9
2026 Sinker TB R 375 91.4 37.0 -0.8 17.0ARM 1.3 -4.1 11.7 17.0ARM 1.9
2026 Changeup TB R 156 85.9 45.3 0.1 12.4ARM -0.1 -8.0 11.9 12.4ARM -2.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball TB R 50 92.1 21.8 -1.4 10.0ARM -2.1 10.3 -5.5 10.0ARM 2.4
2025 Sweeper TB R 116 78.7 39.3 -2.7 17.7GLV 2.5 5.1 -4.2 17.7GLV 3.8
2025 Sinker TB R 347 91.0 34.4 -1.3 16.7ARM 0.6 -1.4 8.8 16.7ARM 1.6
2025 Cutter TB R 75 89.4 26.1 0.3 1.7ARM 0.0 7.9 -0.5 1.7ARM -3.9
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 Sinker 2.0 8 375 59.6 100 .239 .348 .317 13.3 13.0 19.1 .321 .462 .367 49.4
2026 Changeup 1.2 2 156 24.8 54 .170 .226 .190 25.0 27.8 21.7 .237 .329 .253 47.4
2026 Sweeper -1.8 -1 63 10.0 14 .143 .429 .296 20.0 28.6 13.8 .172 .316 .208 20.0
2026 4-Seam Fastball -3.4 -1 32 5.1 6 .250 .250 .267 30.0 33.3 7.1 .273 .342 .308 33.3
2026 Cutter -5.0 0 3 0.5 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
2025 Sinker -1.7 -6 347 59.0 107 .309 .577 .413 13.3 10.3 18.6 .334 .621 .426 55.7
2025 Sweeper -5.0 -6 116 19.7 33 .303 .576 .371 27.3 27.3 16.1 .240 .509 .313 41.7
2025 Cutter -3.8 -3 75 12.8 14 .357 1.000 .557 31.3 28.6 57.1 .295 .835 .466 60.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball 4.7 2 50 8.5 16 .000 .000 .000 52.4 68.8 27.5 .153 .184 .148 40.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 136 86.0 77 16.3 3:00 4:15 -75
2026 4-Seam Fastball 32 93.0 84 16.4 2:15 1:45 30
2026 Sinker 333 91.4 83 18.9 2:30 3:30 -60
2026 Sweeper 63 78.3 75 20.4 9:00 9:30 -30
2025 Cutter 75 89.4 50 7.4 1:15 12:30 45
2025 4-Seam Fastball 49 92.1 80 14.0 2:00 1:30 30
2025 Sinker 318 91.0 84 17.9 2:15 3:15 -60
2025 Sweeper 111 78.7 74 19.1 9:00 9:15 -15
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2023 275 1,066 8 13 -4 -8 9
2024 277 1,033 6 11 -2 -4 10
2025 170 588 -15 8 -3 -2 -12
2026 174 629 1 10 0 -4 7
Player 896 3,316 0 41 -10 0 14
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2023 1,066 51.6 62.4 82.8 26.0 64.9 40.6 63.0 44.7 22.2 9.1 72.2
2024 1,033 55.9 59.6 85.8 26.1 63.0 42.8 70.1 44.8 20.1 8.4 64.4
2025 588 54.3 62.7 82.5 27.5 68.9 41.2 67.6 46.6 21.2 11.7 76.8
2026 629 50.1 63.2 92.0 32.2 62.4 40.4 67.4 47.7 18.0 9.2 67.2
Player 3,316 53.1 61.7 85.4 27.5 64.5 41.3 67.0 45.7 20.5 9.4 70.1
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.6 57.9 42.7 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed 		xERA Fastball
MPH 		Fastball
Spin 		Curve
Spin 		Avg
EV 		Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit% 		GB% Extension
2023 74 78 64 83 9 30 87 16 21 29 89 96 87 78 98
2024 79 83 65 77 10 30 89 21 9 48 99 89 67 93 98
2025 10 19 96
2026 74 84 36 76 43 11 6 27 70 5 29 97 59 6 99 93
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted
Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2023 25.47 2 2.2 0 2 1 1 50.0
2024 23.38 7 6.6 0 3 5 3 42.9
2025 22.42 11 10.5 1 3 8 5 45.5
2026 23.43 4 2.6 1 2 2 1 25.0
Player 23.12 24 21.8 2 10 16 10 41.7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted
Year HR
2023 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
2024 7 5 7 9 7 7 8 6 6 5 7 9 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 9 6 6 9 8 6 5 8 8 6 6 4
2025 11 7 10 8 11 12 9 8 10 10 12 11 11 13 12 8 11 9 9 12 9 10 13 13 9 10 10 13 11 12 12
2026 4 3 1 3 2 4 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 5 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 5 3 2 3
Player 24 16 20 22 22 25 21 18 22 19 23 25 22 23 22 18 22 19 19 29 19 20 28 27 19 19 22 29 22 22 21
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023
Results
BA .209 -.072 ↓ .281 +.055 ↑ .226 +.015 ↑ .211
xBA .280 -.013 ↓ .293 +.053 ↑ .240 +.010 ↑ .230
OBP .257 -.059 ↓ .316 +.052 ↑ .264 -.019 ↓ .283
xOBP .325 -.007 ↓ .332 +.054 ↑ .278 -.022 ↓ .300
SLG .313 -.243 ↓ .556 +.204 ↑ .352 +.045 ↑ .307
xSLG .404 -.169 ↓ .573 +.201 ↑ .372 +.033 ↑ .339
ISO .104 -.171 ↓ .275 +.149 ↑ .126 +.030 ↑ .096
xISO .124 -.156 ↓ .280 +.148 ↑ .132 +.023 ↑ .109
BABIP .238 -.055 ↓ .293 +.022 ↑ .271 +.007 ↑ .264
wOBA .251 -.113 ↓ .364 +.096 ↑ .268 +.004 ↑ .264
xwOBA .318 -.063 ↓ .381 +.093 ↑ .288 +.004 ↑ .284
wOBAcon .282 -.162 ↓ .444 +.119 ↑ .325 +.040 ↑ .285
xwOBAcon .372 -.095 ↓ .467 +.114 ↑ .353 +.040 ↑ .313
BACON .262 -.092 ↓ .354 +.058 ↑ .296 +.024 ↑ .272
xBACON .353 -.023 ↓ .376 +.060 ↑ .316 +.020 ↑ .296
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 46.2 -6.6 ↓ 52.8 +16.0 ↑ 36.8 +4.0 ↑ 32.8
Avg Exit Velocity 89.9 -1.2 ↓ 91.1 +4.2 ↑ 86.9 -0.1 ↓ 87.0
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 33.1 -7.1 ↓ 40.2 +10.3 ↑ 29.9 -2.4 ↓ 32.3
Barrel % 7.0 -8.7 ↓ 15.7 +10.7 ↑ 5.0 +1.4 ↑ 3.6
Avg Launch Angle 1.5 -8.0 ↓ 9.5 +4.6 ↑ 4.9 -5.4 ↓ 10.3
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.5 +0.1 ↑ 72.4 +1.0 ↑ 71.4 +0.9 ↑ 70.5
Attack Angle 7° +1° ↑ 5° -2° ↓ 8° -1° ↓ 9°
Ideal Attack Angle % 46.7 +4.3 ↑ 42.4 +1.5 ↑ 40.9 -0.2 ↓ 41.1
Attack Direction 1° -4° ↓ 4° +3° ↑ 1° +2° ↑ -1°
Swing Path - Tilt 34° +2° ↑ 33° 0° 33° 0° ↓ 33°
Swing Length 7.2 +0.1 ↑ 7.1 -0.1 ↓ 7.2 0.0 7.2
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 91.5 +0.6 ↑ 90.9 +0.4 ↑ 90.5 +0.5 ↑ 90.0
Breaking Velocity 78.3 -0.4 ↓ 78.7 +1.4 ↑ 77.3 +1.0 ↑ 76.3
Offspeed Velocity 85.9 -- -- -- -- -- --
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 9 -11 ↓ 20 +10 ↑ 10 +3 ↑ 7
Popup % 0.8 -3.9 ↓ 4.7 +0.2 ↑ 4.5 -3.2 ↓ 7.7
Flyball % 12.3 -12.1 ↓ 24.4 +7.0 ↑ 17.4 -1.6 ↓ 19.0
Line Drive % 27.7 +0.9 ↑ 26.8 +4.9 ↑ 21.9 -3.2 ↓ 25.1
Groundball % 59.2 +15.1 ↑ 44.1 -12.1 ↓ 56.2 +8.0 ↑ 48.2
Pull % 40.8 +8.5 ↑ 32.3 -2.0 ↓ 34.3 -6.2 ↓ 40.5
Straight Away % 45.4 -0.3 ↓ 45.7 +2.9 ↑ 42.8 +4.3 ↑ 38.5
Opposite Field % 13.8 -8.2 ↓ 22.0 -0.9 ↓ 22.9 +1.9 ↑ 21.0
Weak Contact % 3.8 -0.9 ↓ 4.7 -2.8 ↓ 7.5 +4.9 ↑ 2.6
Pull Airball % 11.5 -3.5 ↓ 15.0 +3.1 ↑ 11.9 -5.0 ↓ 16.9
Topped Contact % 43.8 +11.5 ↑ 32.3 -6.5 ↓ 38.8 +1.4 ↑ 37.4
Under Contact % 11.5 -4.2 ↓ 15.7 -3.2 ↓ 18.9 -5.7 ↓ 24.6
Flare/Burner Contact % 30.0 +6.4 ↑ 23.6 -0.8 ↓ 24.4 -0.7 ↓ 25.1
Solid Contact % 2.3 -4.8 ↓ 7.1 +2.6 ↑ 4.5 -2.2 ↓ 6.7
HR/FB % 25.0 -10.5 ↓ 35.5 +15.5 ↑ 20.0 +14.6 ↑ 5.4
Popups 1 -5 ↓ 6 -3 ↓ 9 -6 ↓ 15
Flyballs 16 -15 ↓ 31 -4 ↓ 35 -2 ↓ 37
Line Drives 36 +2 ↑ 34 -10 ↓ 44 -5 ↓ 49
Groundballs 77 +21 ↑ 56 -57 ↓ 113 +19 ↑ 94
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 50.1 -4.2 ↓ 54.3 -1.6 ↓ 55.9 +4.3 ↑ 51.6
Out of Zone % 49.9 +4.2 ↑ 45.7 +1.6 ↑ 44.1 -4.3 ↓ 48.4
Edge % 40.4 -0.8 ↓ 41.2 -1.6 ↓ 42.8 +2.2 ↑ 40.6
Zone Swing % 63.2 +0.5 ↑ 62.7 +3.1 ↑ 59.6 -2.8 ↓ 62.4
Out of Zone Swing % 32.2 +4.7 ↑ 27.5 +1.4 ↑ 26.1 +0.1 ↑ 26.0
In Zone Contact % 92.0 +9.5 ↑ 82.5 -3.3 ↓ 85.8 +3.0 ↑ 82.8
Out of Zone Contact % 62.4 -6.5 ↓ 68.9 +5.9 ↑ 63.0 -1.9 ↓ 64.9
Whiff % 18.0 -3.2 ↓ 21.2 +1.1 ↑ 20.1 -2.1 ↓ 22.2
First Strike % 67.4 -0.2 ↓ 67.6 -2.5 ↓ 70.1 +7.1 ↑ 63.0
First Pitch Swing % 29.7 -3.2 ↓ 32.9 +7.4 ↑ 25.5 +0.5 ↑ 25.0
Swing % 47.7 +1.1 ↑ 46.6 +1.8 ↑ 44.8 +0.1 ↑ 44.7
Meatball Swing % 67.2 -9.6 ↓ 76.8 +12.4 ↑ 64.4 -7.8 ↓ 72.2
Meatball % 9.2 -2.5 ↓ 11.7 +3.3 ↑ 8.4 -0.7 ↓ 9.1
Zone Swing & Miss % 8.0 -9.5 ↓ 17.5 +3.3 ↑ 14.2 -3.0 ↓ 17.2
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 37.6 +6.5 ↑ 31.1 -5.9 ↓ 37.0 +1.9 ↑ 35.1
In Zone 315 -4 ↓ 319 -258 ↓ 577 +27 ↑ 550
Out of Zone 314 +45 ↑ 269 -187 ↓ 456 -60 ↓ 516
Edge 254 +12 ↑ 242 -200 ↓ 442 +9 ↑ 433
In Zone Swings 199 -1 ↓ 200 -144 ↓ 344 +1 ↑ 343
Out of Zone Swings 101 +27 ↑ 74 -45 ↓ 119 -15 ↓ 134
In Zone Swing & Misses 16 -19 ↓ 35 -14 ↓ 49 -10 ↓ 59
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 38 +15 ↑ 23 -21 ↓ 44 -3 ↓ 47
Basic
Pitches 629 +41 ↑ 588 -445 ↓ 1,033 -33 ↓ 1,066
PA 175 +4 ↑ 171 -107 ↓ 278 +2 ↑ 276
AB 163 +3 ↑ 160 -101 ↓ 261 +10 ↑ 251
Hits 34 -11 ↓ 45 -14 ↓ 59 +6 ↑ 53
Singles 25 0 25 -17 ↓ 42 +9 ↑ 33
Doubles 5 -2 ↓ 7 -1 ↓ 8 -10 ↓ 18
Triples 0 -2 ↓ 2 0 2 +2 ↑ 0
Home Runs 4 -7 ↓ 11 +4 ↑ 7 +5 ↑ 2
Walks 8 -1 ↓ 9 0 9 -6 ↓ 15
Strikeouts 34 -1 ↓ 35 -28 ↓ 63 +7 ↑ 56
K% 19.4 -1.1 ↓ 20.5 -2.2 ↓ 22.7 +2.4 ↑ 20.3
BB% 4.6 -0.7 ↓ 5.3 +2.1 ↑ 3.2 -2.2 ↓ 5.4
HBP 3 +3 ↑ 0 -5 ↓ 5 -5 ↓ 10
Batted Balls 130 +3 ↑ 127 -74 ↓ 201 +6 ↑ 195
Fastball Percent 65.2 -15.1 ↓ 80.3 +8.2 ↑ 72.1 +13.0 ↑ 59.1
Offspeed Percent 24.8 +24.8 ↑ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Breaking Percent 10.0 -9.7 ↓ 19.7 -8.2 ↓ 27.9 -13.0 ↓ 40.9
Number of Fastballs 410 -62 ↓ 472 -273 ↓ 745 +115 ↑ 630
Number of Offspeed 156 +156 ↑ 0 0 0 0 0
Number of Breaking 63 -53 ↓ 116 -172 ↓ 288 -148 ↓ 436
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2023 Shades 275 .264 172 8 4.7 103 39 37.9
2024 Shades 277 .268 170 21 12.4 107 64 59.8
2025 Shades 170 .364 97 2 2.1 73 33 45.2
2026 Shades 174 .251 97 29 29.9 77 33 42.9
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2023 284 15.2 45.1% 0.7% 238 17.9 7.1% 0.4%
2024 305 15.1 44.9% 0.0% 193 17.9 6.2% 0.5%
2025 170 15.4 37.6% 1.2% 101 17.8 5.0% 0.0%
2026 150 15.4 41.3% 1.3% 117 17.7 8.5% 2.6%

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Pitch Distribution

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