P | Toronto Blue Jays
Bats/Throws: L/R | 6' 1" 205 lbs | Age: 28
Draft: 2019 | Rd. 15, No. 449, Minnesota Twins | Concordia University
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 0 6 7.61 16 7 0 49.2 49 1.69
2025 4 3 2.97 74 1 0 72.2 75 1.20
2026 2 1 0.38 22 0 5 23.2 34 1.18
5 Seasons 11 15 4.24 134 23 5 240 250 1.31
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 16 0-6 7.61 49.2 49 1.69
2025 74 4-3 2.97 72.2 75 1.20
2026 22 2-1 0.38 23.2 34 1.18
5 Seasons 134 11-15 4.24 240 250 1.31
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2022 24 411 78 5 6.4 4.7 88.7 112.6 14.8 43.6 .271 .449 .329 .331 .392 41.0 19.8 5.7 3.81 4.52
2023 25 1091 194 21 10.8 7.4 91.0 113.6 12.1 32.0 .246 .479 .335 .330 .418 43.8 25.1 6.0 4.63 4.64
2024 26 901 169 15 8.9 6.3 90.6 114.0 11.1 41.4 .281 .473 .382 .356 .421 45.0 20.6 6.7 7.61 5.34
2025 27 1066 197 18 9.2 6.1 90.2 112.9 5.3 33.5 .250 .395 .299 .311 .386 43.7 25.3 7.4 2.97 4.02
2026 28 411 52 0 0.0 0.0 86.6 112.7 2.7 21.2 .185 .213 .250 .219 .288 32.7 35.8 9.5 0.38 1.87
Player 3880 690 59 8.6 5.8 90.1 114.0 9.5 35.2 .253 .426 .327 .320 .397 42.9 24.6 6.9
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .408 .315 .316 .369 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Varland relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(46.0%) ,
Knuckle Curve
(28.7%) ,
Changeup
(11.2%) ,
Slider
(9.7%) ,
Sinker
(4.4%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2022 38.5 61.5 26.9 28.2 6.4 42.3 32.1 25.6 21.8 12.8 3.8 20.5 19.2 21.8
2023 45.4 54.6 30.9 19.6 4.1 32.5 39.2 28.4 19.1 17.5 8.8 13.4 21.6 19.6
2024 43.2 56.8 27.2 27.2 2.4 32.0 38.5 29.6 19.5 17.8 5.9 12.4 20.7 23.7
2025 53.3 46.7 16.8 24.4 5.6 39.6 35.0 25.4 25.4 21.8 6.1 14.2 13.2 19.3
2026 57.7 42.3 19.2 19.2 3.8 23.1 53.8 23.1 15.4 36.5 5.8 7.7 17.3 17.3
Player 47.2 52.8 24.6 23.8 4.3 34.8 38.1 27.1 21.0 19.7 6.5 13.8 18.4 20.6
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.9 16.8 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2022 5.1 23.1 28.2 32.1 5.1 6.4 4.7
2023 3.1 33.0 23.2 23.2 6.7 10.8 7.4
2024 3.6 27.2 20.7 32.0 7.7 8.9 6.3
2025 4.6 38.1 14.2 25.4 7.1 9.2 6.1
2026 5.8 42.3 19.2 30.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
Player 4.1 32.6 20.3 27.5 6.5 8.6 5.8
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Slider TOR R 40 91.6 26.8 -2.5 4.6GLV 1.2 5.8 -4.3 4.6GLV 0.5
2026 Changeup TOR R 46 92.5 30.2 1.4 12.6ARM -2.5 1.7 2.3 12.6ARM -2.1
2026 Sinker TOR R 18 96.3 19.4 -3.2 16.8ARM 0.5 10.3 -2.6 16.8ARM 1.4
2026 4-Seam Fastball TOR R 189 98.3 12.0 1.2 7.7ARM -0.9 16.5 0.4 7.7ARM -0.1
2026 Curveball TOR R 118 87.3 43.5 -1.0 5.1GLV -1.2 -7.5 -2.9 5.1GLV -4.3
2025 Curveball TOR R 400 88.0 41.4 -2.5 3.4GLV -2.1 -6.1 -4.1 3.4GLV -5.6
2025 Sinker TOR R 58 96.9 17.0 -4.3 14.9ARM -0.6 12.2 -4.8 14.9ARM -0.2
2025 Slider TOR R 75 91.6 27.1 -2.1 3.7GLV 0.3 5.4 -3.6 3.7GLV -0.6
2025 4-Seam Fastball TOR R 483 98.1 12.9 0.3 7.5ARM -0.9 15.7 -0.1 7.5ARM -0.1
2025 Changeup TOR R 50 91.9 27.8 -1.6 14.2ARM -0.8 4.7 -0.6 14.2ARM -0.3
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 2.3 4 189 46.0 45 .189 .216 .257 25.7 37.8 23.0 .148 .167 .225 28.6
2026 Curveball -1.2 -1 118 28.7 25 .333 .375 .330 35.1 40.0 22.2 .230 .273 .241 57.1
2026 Changeup 3.7 2 46 11.2 12 .167 .167 .150 45.8 50.0 35.3 .192 .225 .180 33.3
2026 Slider 2.4 1 40 9.7 11 .182 .182 .245 11.8 9.1 20.0 .208 .229 .191 10.0
2026 Sinker 1.6 0 18 4.4 1 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 -- .187 .200 .168 0.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.6 3 483 45.3 124 .260 .356 .329 17.2 21.0 22.6 .274 .435 .356 50.6
2025 Curveball 0.7 3 400 37.5 126 .210 .328 .261 38.8 35.7 27.6 .214 .291 .241 35.1
2025 Slider -2.9 -2 75 7.0 18 .412 .647 .469 34.2 11.1 14.3 .340 .677 .441 46.7
2025 Sinker 1.5 1 58 5.4 13 .250 .417 .315 14.3 0.0 0.0 .241 .400 .305 41.7
2025 Changeup -1.7 -1 50 4.7 14 .214 .714 .375 28.0 14.3 33.3 .276 .624 .373 50.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 39 92.4 76 13.3 1:45 3:00 -75
2026 4-Seam Fastball 187 98.3 93 18.0 1:00 1:00 0
2026 Knuckle Curve 118 87.3 58 11.1 7:45 7:00 45
2026 Sinker 18 96.3 91 19.9 1:15 2:00 -45
2026 Slider 40 91.6 35 7.0 11:30 10:30 60
2025 Changeup 46 91.8 85 15.8 1:30 2:30 -60
2025 4-Seam Fastball 482 98.1 92 17.2 1:00 1:00 0
2025 Knuckle Curve 399 88.0 51 8.8 7:30 6:45 45
2025 Sinker 58 96.9 94 19.4 1:15 1:45 -30
2025 Slider 75 91.6 40 6.5 11:45 10:30 75
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2022 105 411 -1 4 -3 -2 -1
2023 283 1,091 2 4 -5 -3 -1
2024 237 901 -3 -1 -8 -4 -16
2025 295 1,066 -5 15 -3 -3 4
2026 94 411 3 6 -2 -1 6
Player 1,014 3,880 -4 28 -21 -4 -9
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2022 411 55.5 68.9 84.7 27.3 64.0 41.6 64.2 50.4 20.3 10.5 88.4
2023 1,091 55.0 73.5 81.0 29.7 53.4 44.1 70.0 53.8 25.9 9.3 77.5
2024 901 54.9 72.9 84.2 23.6 49.0 38.7 61.6 50.7 23.2 10.1 84.6
2025 1,066 53.8 70.2 85.4 31.9 40.8 40.9 64.1 52.5 27.1 8.9 86.3
2026 411 45.7 68.6 80.6 33.2 54.1 41.6 64.9 49.4 29.1 6.1 68.0
Player 3,880 53.7 71.5 83.3 29.1 49.9 41.4 65.2 51.9 25.4 9.2 82.3
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.5 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2022 48 44 83
2023 38 49 50 27 30 73 46 6 61 47 62 83 10 17 66 90
2024 6 22 1 60 5 82 26 31 7 5 31 30 68 25 6 55 91
2025 51 65 54 44 47 95 19 23 26 85 65 71 63 36 23 90 92
2026 84 89 36 81 98 94 44 37 85 74 77 98 43 98 80 95 91
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 24.34 4 3.8 0 1 2 2 50.0
2023 23.09 16 15.6 0 1 12 6 37.5
2024 23.96 12 9.4 3 2 9 2 16.7
2025 23.41 10 10.2 0 5 8 4 40.0
Player 23.53 42 39.0 3 9 31 14 33.3
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2022 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 5 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 3 4 4 4
2023 16 15 13 14 17 17 17 15 15 14 17 14 15 14 18 16 17 16 16 17 15 16 19 17 13 14 16 16 16 17 13
2024 12 9 7 7 10 8 11 9 7 8 11 8 10 8 11 11 11 8 11 11 9 10 11 11 8 10 8 9 10 10 9
2025 10 11 7 10 9 10 10 11 9 9 9 12 12 13 12 9 12 9 11 10 11 8 12 12 10 8 9 12 11 9 8
Player 42 38 30 35 40 39 42 38 34 35 41 37 41 38 45 41 43 37 43 42 39 38 46 45 34 36 37 40 41 40 34
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022
Results
BA .224 -.020 .244 -.074 .318 +.066 .252 -.011 .263
xBA .185 -.065 .250 -.031 .281 +.035 .246 -.025 .271
OBP .295 -.009 .304 -.067 .371 +.072 .299 -.012 .311
xOBP .262 -.051 .313 -.029 .342 +.047 .295 -.025 .320
SLG .247 -.136 .383 -.140 .523 +.031 .492 +.037 .455
xSLG .213 -.182 .395 -.078 .473 -.006 .479 +.030 .449
ISO .024 -.115 .139 -.067 .206 -.034 .240 +.048 .192
xISO .028 -.117 .145 -.046 .191 -.042 .233 +.055 .178
BABIP .365 +.051 .314 -.045 .359 +.075 .284 -.013 .297
wOBA .250 -.049 .299 -.083 .382 +.047 .335 +.006 .329
xwOBA .219 -.092 .311 -.045 .356 +.026 .330 -.001 .331
wOBAcon .344 -.023 .367 -.091 .458 +.034 .424 +.035 .389
xwOBAcon .288 -.098 .386 -.035 .421 +.003 .418 +.026 .392
BACON .365 +.030 .335 -.070 .405 +.061 .344 +.011 .333
xBACON .305 -.044 .349 -.015 .364 +.026 .338 -.006 .344
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 32.7 -11.0 43.7 -1.3 45.0 +1.2 43.8 +2.8 41.0
Avg Exit Velocity 86.6 -3.6 90.2 -0.4 90.6 -0.4 91.0 +2.3 88.7
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 21.2 -12.3 33.5 -7.9 41.4 +9.4 32.0 -11.6 43.6
Barrel % 0.0 -9.2 9.2 +0.3 8.9 -1.9 10.8 +4.4 6.4
Avg Launch Angle 2.7 -2.6 5.3 -5.8 11.1 -1.0 12.1 -2.7 14.8
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 71.1 0.0 71.1 -0.1 71.2 +1.0 70.2 -- --
Attack Angle -1° +1° -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 46.5 +2.2 44.3 -5.4 49.7 +4.6 45.1 -- --
Attack Direction -1° +4° -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 33° 33° +1° 32° 31° -- --
Swing Length 7.2 +0.1 7.1 +0.1 7.0 -0.2 7.2 -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 98.1 +0.1 98.0 +1.9 96.1 +0.8 95.3 +1.5 93.8
Breaking Velocity 88.4 -0.2 88.6 +0.5 88.1 +0.4 87.7 +1.6 86.1
Offspeed Velocity 92.5 +0.6 91.9 +2.5 89.4 +3.5 85.9 +2.1 83.8
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 0 -18 18 +3 15 -6 21 +16 5
Popup % 3.8 -1.8 5.6 +3.2 2.4 -1.7 4.1 -2.3 6.4
Flyball % 19.2 +2.4 16.8 -10.4 27.2 -3.7 30.9 +4.0 26.9
Line Drive % 19.2 -5.2 24.4 -2.8 27.2 +7.6 19.6 -8.6 28.2
Groundball % 57.7 +4.4 53.3 +10.1 43.2 -2.2 45.4 +6.9 38.5
Pull % 23.1 -16.5 39.6 +7.6 32.0 -0.5 32.5 -9.8 42.3
Straight Away % 53.8 +18.8 35.0 -3.5 38.5 -0.7 39.2 +7.1 32.1
Opposite Field % 23.1 -2.3 25.4 -4.2 29.6 +1.2 28.4 +2.8 25.6
Weak Contact % 5.8 +1.2 4.6 +1.0 3.6 +0.5 3.1 -2.0 5.1
Pull Airball % 7.7 -6.5 14.2 +1.8 12.4 -1.0 13.4 -7.1 20.5
Topped Contact % 42.3 +4.2 38.1 +10.9 27.2 -5.8 33.0 +9.9 23.1
Under Contact % 19.2 +5.0 14.2 -6.5 20.7 -2.5 23.2 -5.0 28.2
Flare/Burner Contact % 30.8 +5.4 25.4 -6.6 32.0 +8.8 23.2 -8.9 32.1
Solid Contact % 1.9 -5.2 7.1 -0.6 7.7 +1.0 6.7 +1.6 5.1
HR/FB % 0.0 -18.2 18.2 -7.9 26.1 -0.6 26.7 +7.7 19.0
Popups 2 -9 11 +7 4 -4 8 +3 5
Flyballs 10 -23 33 -13 46 -14 60 +39 21
Line Drives 10 -38 48 +2 46 +8 38 +16 22
Groundballs 30 -75 105 +32 73 -15 88 +58 30
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 45.7 -8.1 53.8 -1.1 54.9 -0.1 55.0 -0.5 55.5
Out of Zone % 54.3 +8.1 46.2 +1.1 45.1 +0.1 45.0 +0.5 44.5
Edge % 41.6 +0.7 40.9 +2.2 38.7 -5.4 44.1 +2.5 41.6
Zone Swing % 68.6 -1.6 70.2 -2.7 72.9 -0.6 73.5 +4.6 68.9
Out of Zone Swing % 33.2 +1.3 31.9 +8.3 23.6 -6.1 29.7 +2.4 27.3
In Zone Contact % 80.6 -4.8 85.4 +1.2 84.2 +3.2 81.0 -3.7 84.7
Out of Zone Contact % 54.1 +13.3 40.8 -8.2 49.0 -4.4 53.4 -10.6 64.0
Whiff % 29.1 +2.0 27.1 +3.9 23.2 -2.7 25.9 +5.6 20.3
First Strike % 64.9 +0.8 64.1 +2.5 61.6 -8.4 70.0 +5.8 64.2
First Pitch Swing % 34.0 -6.3 40.3 +0.6 39.7 +0.5 39.2 +6.2 33.0
Swing % 49.4 -3.1 52.5 +1.8 50.7 -3.1 53.8 +3.4 50.4
Meatball Swing % 68.0 -18.3 86.3 +1.7 84.6 +7.1 77.5 -10.9 88.4
Meatball % 6.1 -2.8 8.9 -1.2 10.1 +0.8 9.3 -1.2 10.5
Zone Swing & Miss % 19.4 +4.8 14.6 -1.2 15.8 -3.2 19.0 +3.7 15.3
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 45.9 -13.3 59.2 +8.2 51.0 +4.4 46.6 +10.6 36.0
In Zone 188 -386 574 +79 495 -105 600 +372 228
Out of Zone 223 -269 492 +86 406 -85 491 +308 183
Edge 171 -265 436 +87 349 -132 481 +310 171
In Zone Swings 129 -274 403 +42 361 -80 441 +284 157
Out of Zone Swings 74 -83 157 +61 96 -50 146 +96 50
In Zone Swing & Misses 25 -34 59 +2 57 -27 84 +60 24
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 34 -59 93 +44 49 -19 68 +50 18
Basic
Pitches 411 -655 1,066 +165 901 -190 1,091 +680 411
PA 95 -201 296 +58 238 -45 283 +177 106
AB 85 -181 266 +52 214 -48 262 +163 99
Hits 19 -46 65 -3 68 +2 66 +40 26
Singles 17 -24 41 -7 48 +9 39 +23 16
Doubles 2 -15 17 +9 8 +1 7 +2 5
Triples 0 -1 1 +1 0 -4 4 +3 1
Home Runs 0 -6 6 -6 12 -4 16 +12 4
Walks 9 -13 22 +6 16 -1 17 +11 6
Strikeouts 34 -41 75 +26 49 -22 71 +50 21
K% 35.8 +10.5 25.3 +4.7 20.6 -4.5 25.1 +5.3 19.8
BB% 9.5 +2.1 7.4 +0.7 6.7 +0.7 6.0 +0.3 5.7
HBP 0 -2 2 -2 4 +3 1 0 1
Batted Balls 52 -145 197 +28 169 -25 194 +116 78
Number of Fastballs 207 -334 541 +124 417 -59 476 +280 196
Number of Offspeed 46 -4 50 -44 94 -29 123 +63 60
Number of Breaking 158 -317 475 +85 390 -102 492 +337 155
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2022 Shifts 105 .329 62 20 32.3 43 35 81.4
2023 Shades 283 .335 184 22 12.0 99 64 64.6
2024 Shades 237 .382 114 3 2.6 123 82 66.7
2025 Shades 295 .299 163 11 6.7 132 72 54.5
2026 Shades 94 .250 49 1 2.0 45 15 33.3
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2022 125 14.0 69.6% 0.0% 59 19.0 3.4% 1.7%
2023 290 12.8 86.6% 0.0% 141 17.1 9.9% 0.0%
2024 220 13.2 80.0% 0.0% 152 17.3 7.9% 1.3%
2025 249 15.2 45.4% 0.4% 143 17.9 6.3% 0.7%
2026 71 16.0 35.2% 4.2% 87 18.2 0.0% 3.4%

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Pitch Distribution