Cavalli didn't take the mound until he was a sophomore at Bixby High and missed most of his senior season with back issues, yet still emerged as Oklahoma's top prep pitching prospect in 2017. His arm could have fit in the top three rounds if not for health and signability questions, and he turned down the Braves as a 29th-rounder to attend Oklahoma. After spending most of his freshman season at first base, he focused on pitching as a sophomore and established himself as a likely first-rounder for the 2020 Draft -- though he also missed three weeks with a stress reaction in his arm.
Cavalli produces some of the easiest velocity in his Draft class, working at 92-96 mph and topping out at 98 with riding action while expending barely more effort than he would playing catch. He also can make hitters look bad with a low-80s curveball with power and depth, and he has developed an upper-80s slider/cutter that is catching up to his curve. He shows the potential for an average changeup once he starts using the pitch more often.
While Cavalli has the upside of a frontline starter, he comes with concerns. Though he has a strong 6-foot-4 frame and clean mechanics, he doesn't have much track record of staying healthy or throwing strikes. His lack of command and deception also means that his premium stuff gets hit harder than it should.
Cavalli transitioned from being a two-way player at Oklahoma to sticking to the mound only, and after flashing great potential before the 2020 shutdown, the Nationals selected him 22nd overall that summer. He led the Minors with 175 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings in his first full season but was much more inconsistent at Triple-A Rochester in 2022, though he did make his Major League debut that August. Right shoulder inflammation ended that campaign early, and as Cavalli worked toward an MLB return in spring 2023, he suffered a Grade 3 UCL sprain in his right elbow that required Tommy John surgery. His rehab has been a slow process in 2024, in part because he's dealt with the flu and a bout with "dead arm."
Before the procedure, the 6-foot-4 right-hander showed off a 95-97 mph fastball that could tickle the occasional triple digits. It was a velo-over-movement offering, but that type of heat is still rare. A mid-80s curveball was his best bat-missing pitch in 2022, earning whiffs on 41 percent of swings, thanks to its sharp downward bite, while his upper-80s cutterish slider could get chase down and on the gloveside. An upper-80s changeup also developed enough fade to keep lefties relatively in check.
Cavalli fought off command issues early in his Triple-A tenure in 2022 but was trending upward by the time he reached The Show. His first priority this year will be getting healthy, and it’s possible that his location still wavers as he refinds his form in rehab outings. There’s still a high degree of upside if he hits his spots and remains on the mound, but even with the high TJ success rate these days, nothing is guaranteed coming off the surgery.
A two-way player at the start of his NCAA career with Oklahoma, Cavalli settled best on the mound and looked like he was on the precipice of a breakout as a junior in 2020, when his season was canceled after only four starts. The Nationals saw enough promise to grab him 22nd overall, and the former Sooner showed how worthy he was by leading the Minors with 175 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings across three levels in his first full season. The 2022 campaign was one of fits and starts at Triple-A Rochester (3.71 ERA, 104 strikeouts in 97 innings), but Cavalli did manage to improve enough to earn a Major League debut on Aug. 26. He suffered right shoulder inflammation shortly after and didn’t pitch again in 2022. The injury bug bit again this spring when Cavalli suffered a Grade 3 sprain of the UCL in his right elbow, an issue that required Tommy John surgery. He will miss the 2023 season as a result.
The 6-foot-4 right-hander sits 95-97 mph with his fastball and is capable of touching triple digits. The four-seamer relies more on velocity than movement, considering it can come in fairly straight, but that level of heat still makes it a promising pitch. His mid-80s curveball breaks sharply downward and has separated itself as Cavalli’s best breaker over his upper-80s slider that features late cutterish break. His upper-80s changeup has been a work in progress in pro ball but has developed enough fade to be a pitch to hold off lefties.
Though he usually avoids walks in large bunches, Cavalli struggled most in 2022 when he couldn’t find consistent fastball command. He was trending in the right direction before his injury with a 1.47 ERA in his final seven Rochester starts. The elbow procedure throws another wrench in that progress, but the rebuilding Nats have said they plan on Cavalli playing a prominent role in future MLB rotations after his return in '24.
Originally drafted in the 29th round by the Braves in 2017, Cavalli instead headed to the University of Oklahoma, where he opened as a two-way player. He moved to the mound full-time as a sophomore, suffered a stress fracture in his arm that season and then showed exciting results as a junior before the pandemic ended his 2020 spring after four starts. The Nationals saw enough to take him 22nd overall and gave him long looks at the alternate training site and fall instructs. He had one of the most promising debut seasons in 2021, leading the Minors with 175 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings while climbing three levels.
Cavalli has added velocity and now sits around 96-97 mph with the heater. He’ll touch triple digits, as he did three times in last year’s All-Star Futures Game (the most of any participant). The 6-foot-4 hurler also can manipulate the ball well, with both his mid-80s curveball and upper-80s slider showing plus potential. The curve has more depth while the slider has some cutter action to it, and both were big pieces in driving Cavalli’s K rates. An upper-80s sinking changeup is still a work in progress, but Washington was pleased with its growth.
Where Cavalli struggled in 2021 was in his ability to fill up the strike zone, especially against upper-level bats. Lower-level hitters were flummoxed by his velocity and movement, but those in Double-A and Triple-A were more patient, leading to a 13.2 percent walk rate. The Nationals are hopeful Cavalli can continue to refine his command and work on his pitch sequencing. If it all clicks, they could have the next big piece of their rebuild.
Cavalli was Oklahoma's top prep pitching prospect in 2017, but he turned down the Braves as a 29th-rounder to attend the University of Oklahoma. After spending the early part of his college career as a two-way player, he shifted his focus more to pitching as a sophomore and emerged as a likely first-rounder in ‘20 after his stuff had ticked up early in his junior year. Viewing Cavalli as someone who is only scraping his potential on the mound, the Nationals took the right-hander with the No. 22 overall pick and signed him for $3,027,000. The electric stuff Cavalli showed at Washington’s alternate training site and fall instructional camp left an indelible impression on club officials, and there even was some speculation that the hard-throwing righty might have finished the year in the Nationals’ big league bullpen had the team stayed in the playoff race.
Despite being relatively new to pitching, Cavalli already has shown that he can both throw strikes and miss bats with his entire four-pitch mix. Cavalli knows how to use his powerful 6-foot-4 frame and lightning-quick right arm to generate easy velocity. He sat comfortably in the mid-90s and topped out at 99 mph with his riding fastball in his first pro exposure. Cavalli can make hitters look bad with his 82-85 mph curveball, a plus pitch that he throws with power and depth, and he has developed an upper-80s slider/cutter that has similar out-pitch potential. An upper-80s changeup that Cavalli throws with conviction gives him yet another weapon, and some within the organization think it could become the right-hander’s best secondary offering.
Where Cavalli has struggled at times is in the command department. Lower-level hitters were flummoxed by his velocity and movement, but those in Triple-A have been more patient, leading to a higher walk rates and some punished balls that are more squarely in the zone. The Nationals are hopeful Cavalli can continue to refine his command and work on his pitch sequencing. He’s shown modest gains there as the season has gone along, and he still holds No. 2 starter upside..
Cavalli didn't take the mound until he was a sophomore at Bixby High and missed most of his senior season with back issues, yet still emerged as Oklahoma's top prep pitching prospect in 2017. His arm could have fit in the top three rounds if not for health and signability questions, and he turned down the Braves as a 29th-rounder to attend Oklahoma. After spending most of his freshman season at first base, he focused on pitching as a sophomore and established himself as a likely first-rounder for the 2020 Draft. Targeting Cavalli’s powerful arm and untapped potential on the mound, the Nationals selected the right-hander with the 22nd-overall pick and signed him for slot value.
Cavalli produced some of the easiest velocity in his Draft class, working at 92-96 mph and topping out at 98 with riding action while expending barely more effort than he would playing catch. He also can make hitters look bad with a low-80s spike curveball with power and depth, and he has developed an upper-80s slider/cutter that is catching up to his curve. He shows the potential for an average changeup once he starts using the pitch more often.
While Cavalli has the upside of a frontline starter, he comes with concerns. Though he has a strong 6-foot-4 frame and clean mechanics, he doesn't have much track record of staying healthy -- he was bothered by a back issue as a high school senior and also missed three weeks with a stress reaction in his arm as an Oklahoma sophomore -- or throwing strikes, and his lack of command and deception also means that his premium stuff gets hit harder than it should. But the Nationals have done well developing big physical pitchers with good stuff in the past and believe Cavalli, whom the organization scouted extensively, has all the ingredients needed to become an impactful big league starter.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2022
--
0
0.2
0
1
0
0
--
Player
--
0
0.2
0
1
0
0
--
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2022
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
Player
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here