Justin Topa
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 4" 200LBS | Age: 33
Draft: 2013 | Rd: 17, #509, Pittsburgh Pirates | Long Island
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 0 0 29.70 4 0 0 3.1 1 3.90
2022 0 0 4.91 7 0 0 7.1 4 1.77
2023 5 4 2.61 75 0 3 69 61 1.14
4 Seasons 5 5 3.81 92 0 3 87.1 78 1.28
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 4 0-0 29.70 3.1 1 3.90
2022 7 0-0 4.91 7.1 4 1.77
2023 75 5-4 2.61 69 61 1.14
4 Seasons 92 5-5 3.81 87.1 78 1.28
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 Sweet
Spot %		 XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2020 29 119 18 2 11.1 6.7 87.8 106.8 -2.2 38.9 .202 .355 .266 .236 .393 38.9 40.0 0.0 2.35 2.32
2021 30 88 21 2 9.5 8.7 92.5 109.9 12.7 33.3 .290 .503 .631 .334 .350 42.9 4.3 4.3 29.70 4.79
2022 31 125 27 1 3.7 2.9 87.0 110.2 -8.4 22.2 .247 .364 .306 .303 .304 37.0 11.4 11.4 4.91 3.80
2023 32 1046 197 6 3.0 2.2 87.5 110.4 2.6 26.9 .231 .320 .269 .268 .315 36.5 21.9 6.5 2.61 2.97
Player 1378 263 11 4.2 3.0 87.9 110.4 2.0 27.8 .234 .339 .295 .273 .322 37.3 21.3 6.3
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .368 36.3 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Topa relies on 4 pitches.
Sinker
(44.6%) ,
Slider
(30.0%) ,
Cutter
(18.5%) ,
Changeup
(6.8%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2020 55.6 16.7 27.8 0.0 50.0 27.8 22.2 0.0 55.6 11.1 16.7 5.6 11.1 6.7
2021 42.9 33.3 19.0 4.8 33.3 23.8 42.9 0.0 33.3 23.8 19.0 14.3 9.5 8.7
2022 74.1 11.1 14.8 0.0 48.1 33.3 18.5 7.4 51.9 7.4 25.9 3.7 3.7 2.9
2023 57.4 16.2 22.3 4.1 38.1 38.6 23.4 5.1 44.7 19.8 21.3 4.1 3.0 2.2
Player 57.8 17.1 21.7 3.4 39.5 36.1 24.3 4.6 45.2 18.3 21.3 4.9 4.2 3.0
MLB 44.6 23.5 24.8 7.0 37.0 37.5 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 Cutter SEA R 194 92.4 23.8 -0.5 -2 2.7 -1.8 193
2023 Changeup SEA R 71 86.8 37.9 3.6 10 17.9 2.3 15
2023 Slider SEA R 314 82.8 37.3 -1.9 -5 14.0 6.1 78
2023 Sinker SEA R 467 95.0 30.6 5.0 20 17.5 1.5 9
2022 Changeup MIL R 5 86.4 35.9 1.1 3 18.5 3.3 22
2022 Sinker MIL R 86 95.5 29.9 4.9 20 17.5 1.7 11
2022 Slider MIL R 34 81.5 41.9 2.2 5 15.4 7.0 83
2021 Sinker MIL R 60 95.7 28.0 5.3 24 17.5 1.8 12
2021 Slider MIL R 28 80.2 42.5 0.5 1 16.9 8.1 92
2020 Slider MIL R 36 83.3 37.5 -1.1 -3 15.6 9.9 172
2020 Sinker MIL R 83 97.5 25.0 4.0 19 17.8 1.1 6
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 Sinker 2.2 10 467 44.6 148 .263 .321 .287 12.2 19.6 22.3 .262 .345 .296 41.3
2023 Slider -0.2 -1 314 30.0 61 .237 .373 .273 25.6 27.9 18.3 .208 .304 .217 34.1
2023 Cutter 1.5 3 194 18.5 45 .189 .324 .289 26.5 26.7 19.7 .174 .267 .273 34.6
2023 Changeup -0.1 0 71 6.8 21 .190 .238 .188 20.5 14.3 9.1 .203 .294 .211 16.7
2022 Sinker 0.4 0 86 68.8 27 .280 .280 .352 8.1 11.1 18.8 .250 .364 .299 40.9
2022 Slider -3.1 -1 34 27.2 7 .333 .500 .407 25.0 14.3 9.1 .233 .363 .319 20.0
2022 Changeup -2.3 0 5 4.0 -- -- -- 50.0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- --
2021 Sinker -5.0 -3 60 68.2 16 .563 .750 .572 9.4 6.3 6.7 .289 .481 .325 53.3
2021 Slider -13.4 -4 28 31.8 6 .500 1.500 .817 0.0 0.0 0.0 .293 .564 .358 16.7
2020 Sinker 0.5 0 83 69.7 22 .318 .545 .368 20.4 27.3 26.1 .271 .473 .315 43.8
2020 Slider 4.0 1 36 30.3 8 .000 .000 .000 50.0 75.0 40.0 .012 .031 .017 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2023 Changeup 70 86.8 95 19.1 2:45 3:15 -30
2023 Cutter 190 92.4 49 8.0 1:30 12:30 60
2023 Sinker 428 95.0 86 18.4 2:15 3:15 -60
2023 Slider 303 82.8 54 14.9 8:30 9:00 -30
2022 Sinker 85 95.5 90 18.5 2:15 3:15 -60
2022 Slider 34 81.5 63 16.5 8:30 8:45 -15
2021 Sinker 57 95.7 91 18.4 2:15 3:00 -45
2021 Slider 28 80.2 64 17.9 8:15 8:45 -30
2020 Sinker 79 97.5 87 18.8 2:00 2:45 -45
2020 Slider 36 83.3 57 16.5 8:15 9:00 -45
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2020 37 146 2 1 0 0 3
2022 34 125 1 0 -1 -1 -1
2023 275 1,046 8 14 -6 -3 12
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2020 119 52.9 76.2 75.0 30.4 64.7 33.6 53.3 54.6 27.7 5.9 100.0
2021 88 61.4 63.0 97.1 23.5 75.0 44.3 91.3 47.7 7.1 3.4 100.0
2022 125 40.8 56.9 93.1 29.7 77.3 41.6 61.8 40.8 13.7 8.8 90.9
2023 1,046 54.8 62.8 85.6 26.8 63.8 43.6 65.8 46.6 19.1 9.4 73.5
Player 1,378 53.8 63.6 85.8 27.3 66.1 42.6 66.0 46.8 18.8 8.6 77.3
MLB 48.6 66.9 82.0 28.4 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA 		xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit% 		K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate 		FB
Velo 		FB
Spin 		CB
Spin 		Extension
2020 97 21 33
2022 77 33 9
2023 94 67 91 96 79 95 97 80 67 38 78 6 24 68 17 22
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2020 22.2 1 1.0 0 1 1 0 0.0
2021 21.7 2 0.9 1 3 1 0 0.0
2022 -- 0 0.6 -1 1 1 0 --
2023 23.5 4 3.1 1 5 3 0 0.0
Player 22.8 7 5.6 1 10 6 0 0.0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2020 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2021 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 3 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 1 1
2022 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
2023 4 2 3 6 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 3 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 1
Player 7 6 4 8 6 5 6 4 4 4 5 7 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 8 6 7 9 6 3 3 7 6 6 6 3
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2020 2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 97.5 95.7 -1.8 ↓ 95.5 -0.2 ↓ 94.3 -1.2 ↓
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.4 0.0 86.8 0.4 ↑
Breaking Velocity 83.3 80.2 -3.1 ↓ 81.5 1.3 ↑ 82.8 1.3 ↑
Exit Velocity 87.8 92.5 4.7 ↑ 87.0 -5.5 ↓ 87.5 0.5 ↑
Launch Angle -2.2 12.7 14.9 ↑ -8.4 -21.1 ↓ 2.6 11.0 ↑
Barrel % 11.1 9.5 -1.6 ↓ 3.7 -5.8 ↓ 3.0 -0.7 ↓
Hard Hit % 38.9 42.9 4.0 ↑ 37.0 -5.9 ↓ 36.5 -0.5 ↓
Sweet Spot % 38.9 33.3 -5.6 ↓ 22.2 -11.1 ↓ 26.9 4.7 ↑
xBA .202 .290 0.088 ↑ .247 -0.043 ↓ .231 -0.016 ↓
BA .233 .545 0.312 ↑ .290 -0.255 ↓ .240 -0.050 ↓
xwOBA .236 .334 0.098 ↑ .303 -0.031 ↓ .268 -0.035 ↓
wOBA .266 .631 0.365 ↑ .306 -0.325 ↓ .269 -0.037 ↓
xSLG .355 .503 0.149 ↑ .364 -0.139 ↓ .320 -0.044 ↓
SLG .400 .955 0.555 ↑ .323 -0.632 ↓ .327 0.004 ↑
K% 40.0 4.3 -35.7 ↓ 11.4 7.1 ↑ 21.9 10.5 ↑
BB% 0.0 4.3 4.3 ↑ 11.4 7.1 ↑ 6.5 -4.9 ↓
Swing % 54.6 47.7 -6.9 ↓ 40.8 -6.9 ↓ 46.6 5.8 ↑
Whiff% 27.7 7.1 -20.6 ↓ 13.7 6.6 ↑ 19.1 5.4 ↑
In Zone % 52.9 61.4 8.5 ↑ 40.8 -20.6 ↓ 54.8 14.0 ↑
Out of Zone % 47.1 38.6 -8.5 ↓ 59.2 20.6 ↑ 45.2 -14.0 ↓
Out of Zone Swing % 30.4 23.5 -6.9 ↓ 29.7 6.2 ↑ 26.8 -2.9 ↓
First Pitch Swing % 26.7 30.4 3.7 ↑ 20.6 -9.8 ↓ 26.9 6.3 ↑
First Pitch Strike % 53.3 91.3 38.0 ↑ 61.8 -29.5 ↓ 65.8 4.0 ↑
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2020 Shifts 30 .266 19 1 5.3 11 7 63.6
2021 Shifts 22 .631 15 0 0.0 7 2 28.6
2022 Shifts 34 .306 26 2 7.7 8 4 50.0
2023 Shades 275 .269 178 15 8.4 97 49 50.5
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2020 26 20.6 0.0% 7.7% 25 24.9 0.0% 12.0%
2021 22 19.3 0.0% 9.1% 19 24.7 0.0% 10.5%
2022 34 19.2 0.0% 0.0% 33 24.2 0.0% 6.1%
2023 256 15.5 35.2% 0.4% 216 19.0 0.9% 0.5%
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Pitch Distribution

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