A projectable right-hander from the Massachusetts high school ranks, Burke went undrafted in 2018 and headed to the University of Maryland. Tommy John surgery knocked out his freshman season in 2019, but he returned to pitch very well as the Terrapins’ Sunday starter in the shortened 2020 season. He’s led Maryland’s rotation in 2021 and while his results have been a bit inconsistent, his stuff has opened a lot of eyes and put a bit of an up arrow next to his name.
Burke has one of the best overall fastballs in the class when combining velocity and movement. Coming from his 6-foot-6 frame, it’s generally in the 92-95 range, but he has reached back for more when he’s wanted to. The pitch has serious ride up in the zone, a four-seamer that routinely misses bats. His secondary stuff has been a bit more inconsistent. He throws two breaking pitches, using a knuckle curve to create good shape and depth, and a newer slider he was throwing a lot. They’ll flash plus, but will also flash below-average, with some scouts wishing he’d focus on just one.
Burke does have a changeup with some arm-side fade, but doesn’t throw it much. Developing that and improving his overall command -- walks have hurt him during his time at Maryland -- will be keys for him to be able to start at the next level. A team taking him in the top couple of rounds will certainly give him that opportunity, knowing he might approach triple digits and be a nasty fastball-breaking ball weapon late in games out of the bullpen if starting doesn’t work.
Burke starred in baseball and basketball as a Massachusetts high schooler but he had Tommy John surgery in May 2018 during his senior season. Signed for an over-slot $800,000 as a 2021 third-rounder after attending Maryland, he led the system with 137 strikeouts in 108 innings and reached Triple-A during his first full pro season. He seemed on the verge of making the Majors in 2023 but instead posted a 7.61 ERA in nine Triple-A starts and was shut down in mid-June with persistent shoulder soreness.
Burke's stuff was down last year but when he was fully healthy in 2022, his fastball operated at 93-95 mph and peaked at 97 with nice carry and armside run. His upper-70s knuckle-curve dove at the plate and graded as plus at its best, while his low-80s slider also featured depth but less reliability. His fading low-80s changeup showed flashes of becoming at least an averaging offering, though he barely used it the last two seasons.
While Burke is athletic for a 6-foot-6, 230-pounder and there are no red flags in his delivery, he never has repeated it well enough to provide consistent strikes. He can miss bats with all four of his pitches, yet he also gets pummeled when he doesn't command them. He has the upside of a mid-rotation starter but the increasing likelihood of becoming a multi-inning reliever.
A baseball and basketball star as a Massachusetts high schooler, Burke had Tommy John surgery in May 2018, his senior season. He redshirted during his first season at Maryland while rehabilitating, then was the Terrapins' best starter the next two years before the White Sox made him a third-round pick in 2021. Signed for an over-slot $800,000, he pitched his way to Double-A a month into his first full pro season, reached Triple-A in September and led the system with 137 strikeouts in 108 innings.
Burke's fastball velocity varied in 2021 but he consistently sat at 93-95 mph and peaked at 97 for most of last year, and his heater features good carry up in the zone. His solid upper-70s knuckle-curve drops at the plate and plays well off his fastball, while his low-80s slider also has nice depth but isn't as reliable. He doesn't trust his low-80s changeup with fade, and he barely used it in 2022.
Burke has the stuff to become a mid-rotation starter, but he needs to locate his pitches with more consistency in order to reach his ceiling, and he has lost time to persistent shoulder soreness in 2023. He's athletic for a 6-foot-6, 230-pounder and his delivery doesn't have any glaring flaws, but he averaged 4.9 walks per nine innings at Maryland and 4.0 in his first full pro season. He can miss bats with each of his offerings, but he got tagged for a 5.40 ERA in the upper Minors because he got pounded when his command deserted him.
Massachusetts featured one of its best high school classes ever in 2018, headlined by future 2021 first-rounders Sal Frelick and Ryan Cusick and three more prominent pitching picks from last July in Burke, Steven Hajjar and Mike Vasil. Burke had Tommy John surgery in May of his senior season, which cost him his first season at Maryland, but bounced back to serve as the Terrapins' best starter the next two years. A third-round pick last July, he struck out 20 in 14 innings at Low-A after signing for an over-slot $800,000.
Burke gets good carry on his four-seam fastball up in the zone though its velocity tends to vary, peaking at 98 mph but sitting at 91-93 mph during the 2021 college season and 93-95 mph in his brief pro debut. His heater plays well in tandem with a mid-70s knuckle curve with fine depth that could become a plus offering if it adds more power. His low-80s slider also has depth and similar upside, while his low-80s changeup with fade lags behind the rest of his repertoire.
Though Burke is athletic for a 6-foot-6, 230-pounder -- he was also a basketball star in high school -- he has yet to show that he can maintain consistent quality with his stuff or throw it for strikes. He averaged 4.9 walks per nine innings at Maryland and was even more scattered in his brief pro debut. He has the ingredients to become a mid-rotation starter if he can add some more polish.
Part of an outstanding Massachusetts 2018 high school prep class that included future first-rounders Sal Frelick and Ryan Cusick as well as two more prominent 2021 picks in Steven Hajjar and Mike Vasil, Burke also starred in basketball before heading to college at Maryland. He missed his first season with the Terrapins while recovering from Tommy John surgery, then was their best starter the last two years. The White Sox selected him in the third round in July and signed him for an over-slot $900,000.
Burke can flash a well-above-average fastball that reaches 98 mph with quality riding life up in the strike zone, but his velocity fluctuated during the spring and he sat at 91-93 mph with his heater. His best secondary pitch is a mid-70s knuckle curve with good depth that could grade as plus with more power. He also has added a low-80s slider with similar potential, while his changeup features some fade but lacks reliability and he doesn't trust it.
Whether Burke makes it as a starter or reliever will come down to consistency, both with the quality of his stuff and his ability to throw it for strikes. He averaged 4.9 walks per nine innings during his college career and needs to do a better job of attacking hitters. His 6-foot-6, 230-pound frame is built to handle innings and he could fit in the middle of a rotation if everything comes together.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2024
25.0
2
2.1
0
0
3
0
0.0
Player
25.0
2
2.1
0
0
3
0
0.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2024
2
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
3
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
3
3
3
Player
2
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
3
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
3
3
3
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here