The Pirates had some bonus pool money left over after the first two days of the 2018 Draft, so they were able to convince Burrows, a Connecticut high school standout, to sign in Round 11 for $500,000. He’s had a hard time staying healthy, though he reached the upper levels and went to the Futures Game in 2022 and got added to the 40-man roster that offseason. Tommy John surgery early in 2023 forced him out for nearly all of that year and up until June 2024. He spent the bulk of his active time pitching well in Triple-A and was rewarded for his tireless work with a big league debut in Yankee Stadium at the end of September.
The further removed Burrows got from TJ, the more his stuff ticked back up. His fastball touched 97 mph last year and averaged over 94. His mid-80s changeup might be his best secondary offering, in that it misses a lot of bats and gets chases. He’s always been able to spin his curve, thrown around 80 mph, though he didn’t land it for strikes consistently in 2024 and he started favoring a slider that he reintroduced. It’s an upper-80s pitch with cutter-like action to it that could be a very good option if he can continue to throw it hard enough.
At 6-foot-1 and with his injury history, it’s not hard to envision an eventual move to the bullpen for Burrows. But with the stuff coming back and a four-pitch mix, if he can continue to find the strike zone enough and prove he can take the ball regularly, he could still make it as a starter, a role he still sees himself in.
Burrows didn’t hear his name called over the first two days of the 2018 Draft, so many assumed the Connecticut high schooler would be heading to UConn for college. Instead, he went in Round 11 to the Pirates, who gave him $500,000 to sign. Health and durability have been issues, though he took a big step forward in 2022, pitching his way from Double-A Altoona to Triple-A Indianapolis, with a stop at the Futures Game mixed in. Though he was banged up and fatigued at the end of the year, he earned a spot on the 40-man roster, but made just two starts in 2023 until a torn UCL required Tommy John surgery.
When he’s healthy, Burrows has a strong three-pitch mix with good command, all things that point to a future as a starting pitcher. His fastball was up to 97 mph in 2022, averaging around 95, with riding life at the top of the zone. He can really spin his curveball, a low-80s breaker with excellent bite, and his changeup really improved in 2022 as well. Talk of adding a slider or cutter to break up his extreme north-to-south look kind of got put on hold with the elbow injury.
Burrows was progressing on schedule post-surgery and should return later in the 2024 season. His ability to throw all three of his main pitches for strikes gives him a chance to start even without an additional breaking ball, but he’ll have to show he can handle a full workload. Especially post-surgery, a move to the bullpen might make sense, where his stuff might tick up a bit more in shorter stints.
The Pirates had some bonus pool money left over at the start of Day 3 of the 2018 Draft, so they used most of it in the 11th round to lure Burrows, a Connecticut high school right-hander, away from his commitment to the University of Connecticut for $500,000. He moved slowly at first, not reaching full-season ball until 2021, but he has risen up the system more quickly since. He was dominant in Double-A in 2022 and went to the Futures Game before getting dinged up and running out of gas a bit up in Triple-A. The Pirates saw more than enough to add him to the 40-man roster, but he made just two starts in 2023 before needing Tommy John surgery.
Even though he was fatigued at the end of the year, the Pirates feel some of Burrows’ underlying metrics were better than the uglier surface stats. When healthy, he has a legitimate three-pitch mix he spreads out very well. His fastball averaged around 95 mph and touched 97 mph in 2022, and it has very good ride at the top of the zone. His high-spin curve with bite is still his calling card, but perhaps the biggest sign of improvement was with his mid-80s changeup, which he committed to throwing more and got comfortable enough with to throw to right-handed hitters. Because he’s such a north-to-south pitcher, there’s talk of adding a slider or cutter to give hitters an east-west look.
The third pitch gives Burrows a good chance to start in the big leagues, though he still needs to show he’s durable enough -- he’s yet to top 100 innings in a season and now has elbow surgery on his resume -- to handle the role. Some more reps to hone his stuff within the strike zone is all he needs to get a chance to prove he can.
Burrows was an intriguing and projectable high school pitcher in Connecticut who most thought was headed to UConn for college ball as the 2018 Draft approached. Knowing there was no penalty for signing a player after the 10th round, the Pirates took a shot and selected Burrows in Round 11, then went over slot to sign him away from the Huskies for $500,000. He didn’t make his full-season debut until 2021, but he was dominant when he was on the mound for Greensboro. He missed two months of the season with an oblique injury but made up for some lost innings by pitching well in the Arizona Fall League.
The right-hander has added strength since signing, and his velocity has ticked upward as a result. His fastball is closer to a plus heater, touching 97 mph and sitting 94-95, though he’s yet to be pushed super deep into starts. His curve is his best pitch, with strong bite and top-to-bottom shape. Data-driven evaluators love Burrows because he registers really high spin rates with both pitches. He does show some feel for his changeup; it’s a pitch he didn’t throw much during the regular season in 2021 but focused on more during his AFL stint.
One encouraging development for Burrows in ’21 was that his improved stuff missed a lot more bats (12.1 K/9 in High-A), but his control trended in the right direction, and he threw even more strikes last fall. If that continues, he has the stuff to start, with the floor of being a really interesting multi-inning reliever.
In 2016, the Pirates went over slot in the 11th round of the Draft to sign a high school pitcher from the Northeast, Max Kranick. They copied the playbook again two years later when they drafted Burrows, a prep standout in Connecticut most thought was headed to UConn for college. The Pirates were able to bring him into the organization for $500,000. He pitched well, albeit briefly, in the Gulf Coast League that summer and handled a push up to the short-season New York-Penn League in 2019.
Burrows has two pitches that could be at least above average in his fastball and curve. Delivered with a super-fast arm, the right-hander can dial his fastball up to 96 mph with good life to it. His breaking ball has the top-to-bottom shape of a true curve and both pitches play up because of above-average spin. He has a feel for his changeup, though it’s behind his other two.
While he did miss more bats in 2019, his walk rate also ticked upward and he’ll have to do a better job of finding the strike zone more consistently. That said, he’s only 21 years old and there’s time for him to find ways to repeat his delivery and improve his command, which would help him reach his ceiling as a No. 4 or 5 starter.
Burrows was one of the best high school players in the state of Connecticut as the 2018 Draft approached, and it was assumed he was headed to fulfill his commitment to the University of Connecticut. But the Pirates did an excellent job of scouting the right-hander and understanding his signability, taking him in the 11th round that June and going above the $125,000 threshold to sign him for $500,000. He showed the investment might very much be worth it by handling a jump to the Short Season New York-Penn League in 2019 and striking out nearly a batter per inning.
Burrows has an intriguing three-pitch mix that gives him the chance to start. His fastball is now up to 96 mph, a four-seamer with excellent riding life to it. His breaking ball is close to a true curveball, thrown about 80 mph, with good north-south movement, an offering that could be a plus out pitch in time. Analytics departments will like Burrows because he generates above-average spin on both his fastball and breaking ball. His changeup is behind the other two pitches, but he’s shown a feel for it and it should be a viable third offering.
While Burrows showed the ability to miss bats, he also did struggle with the strike zone a bit in 2019, walking over four per nine innings. He would have been 20 for all of the 2020 season, so there’s time for him to iron his delivery out and become a solid No. 4 type starter, with knowledge that the fastball-curve combination could tick up out of the bullpen if needed.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2024
29.1
1
1.0
0
0
0
1
100.0
Player
29.1
1
1.0
0
0
0
1
100.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2024
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Player
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
PIT
