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Merrill Kelly
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 202LBS | Age: 32

Draft: 2010 | Rd: 8, #251, Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona State
Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 3 7 5.06 15 15 0 85.1 77 1.32
3 Seasons 19 23 4.41 52 52 0 300.0 264 1.28
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 15 3-7 5.06 85.1 77 1.32
3 Seasons 52 19-23 4.41 300.0 264 1.28

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 31 2962 558 53 9.5 89.9 112.7 12.4 33.2 .271 .493 .318 .344 .408 40 20.3 7.3 4.42 5.45
2020 32 473 90 10 11.1 88.5 115 13.3 36.7 .241 .430 .275 .300 .374 40 23.2 4 2.58 3.82
2021 33 1344 260 18 6.9 89.7 114.9 12.4 36.9 .272 .446 .325 .329 .395 40.8 21.2 6.9 5.06 4.43
4779 908 81 8.9 89.7 115 12.5 34.6 .268 .473 .316 .336 .401 40.2 20.9 6.9
6.5 88.3 122.2 11.9 32.8 .243 .403 .317 .312 .363 35.4 22 8.4

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(34.3%) ,
Sinker
(20.9%) ,
Curveball
(19.9%) ,
Changeup
(15.8%) ,
Cutter
(9.1%) ,


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Pitch Tracking

Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway%
2021 4-Seam Fastball 461 229 232 34.3 91.7 110 93 25 12 6 2 5 24 72 .269 .242 .538 .483 .377 .350 89.4 22 2389 6.3 22.1 21.2
2021 Sinker 281 208 73 20.9 91.6 84 75 21 15 5 0 1 15 62 .280 .301 .387 .427 .322 .345 91.3 9 2297 6.4 13.1 19.5
2021 Curveball 268 130 138 19.9 81.2 81 79 18 13 2 0 3 23 56 .228 .249 .367 .413 .265 .291 90.1 3 2584 6.3 25.2 24.0
2021 Changeup 212 60 152 15.8 86.7 57 56 18 12 3 1 2 7 50 .321 .321 .518 .501 .351 .351 88.0 6 2023 6.3 28.0 11.9
2021 Cutter 122 60 62 9.1 90.7 28 28 6 4 1 0 1 8 20 .214 .260 .357 .355 .244 .267 79.4 18 2360 6.3 21.2 22.9
2020 4-Seam Fastball 117 69 48 24.7 92.1 22 20 5 2 2 0 1 4 16 .250 .190 .500 .348 .348 .267 89.6 30 2436 6.4 22.9 13.8
2020 Curveball 105 66 39 22.2 81.2 23 22 5 5 0 0 0 9 13 .227 .249 .227 .378 .222 .285 93.2 9 2614 6.4 28.2 27.3
2020 Cutter 95 49 46 20.1 90.8 24 23 4 1 1 0 2 2 21 .174 .299 .478 .581 .282 .382 86.5 22 2430 6.4 6.5 9.5
2020 Sinker 83 70 13 17.5 91.8 31 30 5 4 1 0 0 7 23 .167 .238 .200 .346 .176 .266 89.4 9 2257 6.4 22.5 28.0
2020 Changeup 73 18 55 15.4 87.5 24 24 7 3 2 0 2 7 17 .292 .224 .625 .505 .378 .304 84.9 -5 1999 6.4 38.6 36.8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel %
2019 43.2 25.8 25.3 5.7 41.4 35.8 22.8 2.5 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.6 9.5
2020 45.6 10 32.2 12.2 46.7 31.1 22.2 4.4 28.9 25.6 21.1 6.7 11.1
2021 44.6 22.7 27.7 5 43.5 32.3 24.2 4.2 29.2 24.2 28.1 7.3 6.9
43.8 23.3 26.7 6.2 42.5 34.4 23.1 3.2 31.2 24.8 25.1 6.2 8.9
45.2 22.2 25.5 7.1 36.6 37.9 25.5 3.6 33.4 24.3 24.5 5.6 6.5

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2021 4-Seamer ARI R 461 91.7 16.4 -0.4 -2 7 -0.7 -9
2021 Curveball ARI R 268 81.2 51.8 0.9 2 9.2 0 0
2021 Changeup ARI R 212 86.7 30.9 1 4 15.7 1.2 9
2021 Cutter ARI R 122 90.7 20.3 4 16 0.9 -2.5 -154
2021 Sinker ARI R 279 91.6 23.4 0.5 2 15.4 0.4 3
2020 Curveball ARI R 105 81.2 52.7 2.5 5 9.3 0.2 2
2020 Cutter ARI R 95 90.8 19.7 4.8 20 0.3 -2.2 -117
2020 Sinker ARI R 83 91.8 24.1 1.3 6 15.8 1.1 8
2020 4-Seamer ARI R 117 92.1 16.2 0.2 1 6.1 -1.5 -20
2020 Changeup ARI R 73 87.5 29.3 -0.5 -2 16.4 2.7 20
2019 Cutter ARI R 539 89.9 23.2 2.5 10 2.1 0.4 21
2019 4-Seamer ARI R 1106 92 17.2 -0.5 -3 4.7 -2.8 -38
2019 Sinker ARI R 287 91.5 24.2 1 4 13.9 -0.7 -5
2019 Curveball ARI R 632 80.6 55.3 3 6 9.6 0.6 7
2019 Changeup ARI R 398 86 23.9 -6 -20 12.6 -1.2 -8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2021 Cutter -1.9 -2 122 9.1 28 .214 .357 .245 21.2 28.6 22.9 .26 .355 .267 20
2021 Changeup 0.8 2 212 15.8 57 .321 .518 .354 28 12.3 11.9 .321 .501 .351 34
2021 Curveball -0.1 0 268 19.9 81 .228 .367 .278 25.2 28.4 24 .249 .413 .291 48.2
2021 Sinker 1 3 281 20.9 84 .28 .387 .325 13.1 17.9 19.5 .301 .427 .345 51.6
2021 4-Seamer 1.2 6 461 34.3 110 .269 .538 .379 22.1 21.8 21.2 .242 .483 .351 36.1
2020 4-Seamer 0.2 0 117 24.7 22 .25 .5 .35 22.9 18.2 13.8 .19 .348 .266 43.8
2020 Curveball -1.2 -1 105 22.2 23 .227 .227 .265 28.2 39.1 27.3 .249 .378 .285 53.8
2020 Changeup 3.4 2 73 15.4 24 .292 .625 .383 38.6 29.2 36.8 .224 .505 .304 29.4
2020 Cutter -2.6 -2 95 20.1 24 .174 .478 .285 6.5 8.3 9.5 .299 .581 .382 33.3
2020 Sinker -5.6 -5 83 17.5 31 .167 .2 .208 22.5 22.6 28 .238 .346 .266 43.5
2019 Sinker 1.6 5 287 9.7 78 .306 .5 .384 16.2 11.5 16.7 .329 .567 .401 38.1
2019 Changeup 0.6 2 398 13.4 103 .316 .537 .399 24.1 13.6 13.5 .314 .608 .406 29.6
2019 Cutter 0.3 1 539 18.2 163 .277 .458 .334 19.1 12.3 16.3 .299 .511 .358 39.3
2019 Curveball -0.3 -2 632 21.3 165 .215 .417 .272 30.1 34.5 23.8 .221 .381 .26 47.2
2019 4-Seamer -0.9 -10 1106 37.3 264 .241 .406 .325 20.2 22 19.3 .25 .488 .353 41.6
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 73 87.5 82 18.2 1:45 2:30 -45
2020 Curveball 104 81.2 70 16.7 7:45 7:15 30
2020 Cutter 95 90.8 61 12.7 12:45 12:00 45
2020 4-Seam Fastball 116 92.1 79 16.7 1:00 12:45 15
2020 Sinker 76 91.8 76 18.5 1:00 2:15 -75
2021 Changeup 206 86.7 78 17.2 1:45 2:30 -45
2021 Curveball 268 81.2 68 16.1 7:45 7:15 30
2021 Cutter 122 90.7 65 12 1:00 12:15 45
2021 4-Seam Fastball 461 91.7 80 17.2 1:15 12:45 30
2021 Sinker 269 91.6 76 18.3 1:15 2:00 -45
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 773 2960 -5 -29 23 7 -3
2020 124 473 -1 -8 4 0 -6
2021 360 1344 -3 -1 8 3 8
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 2962 47.6 68.9 82.9 27.4 63.8 44.5 58.6 47.2 22.3 7.5 74.8
2020 473 49 64.7 82.7 27.8 62.7 44.8 59.2 45.9 23.5 6.1 79.3
2021 1344 52.5 68.7 83.9 26.1 55.1 46.1 62.3 48.4 22.1 7.9 73.6
4779 49.1 68.4 83.2 27.1 61.5 45 59.7 47.4 22.3 7.5 74.8
48.4 66.7 82.1 28.4 58.7 42.6 60.5 46.9 24.5 7.2 75.8

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2019 16 14 10 8 34 1 12 17 21 27 63 25 16 27 81 76
2020 61 47 36 29 83 23 11 47 30 50 95 28 61 31 73 65
2021 33 15 26 41 40 10 62 34 38 30 71 18 33 23 65 61
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.5 29 32.2 -3 18 20 18 62.1
2020 21.7 5 6 -1 3 4 3 60
2021 23.7 12 13.2 -1 7 9 6 50

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 29 34 38 32 39 26 29 39 31 32 38 30 21 29 30 38 26 33 32 34 21 28 27 37 32 37 36 32 38 29 37
2020 5 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 6 3 4 5 6 5 8 5 6 5 5 5 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 7
2021 12 15 17 13 15 12 12 14 14 13 16 16 9 11 12 14 11 13 14 14 8 12 13 14 14 15 13 12 15 11 15
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights and distances, but does not attempt to adjust for environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 91.3 91.6 0.3 91.5 -0.1
Offspeed Velocity 86 87.5 1.5 86.7 -0.8
Breaking Velocity 80.6 81.2 0.6 81.2 0
Exit Velocity 89.9 88.5 -1.4 89.7 1.2
Launch Angle 12.4 13.3 0.9 12.4 -0.9
Barrel % 9.5 11.1 1.6 6.9 -4.2
Hard Hit % 40 40 0 40.8 0.8
Sweet Spot % 33.2 36.7 3.5 36.9 0.2
xBA .271 .241 -0.03 .272 0.031
BA .26 .218 -0.042 .266 0.048
xwOBA .344 .3 -0.044 .329 0.029
wOBA .318 .275 -0.043 .325 0.05
xSLG .493 .43 -0.063 .446 0.016
SLG .447 .395 -0.052 .444 0.049
K% 20.3 23.2 2.9 21.2 -2
BB% 7.3 4 -3.3 6.9 2.9
Swing % 47.2 45.9 -1.3 48.4 2.5
Whiff% 22.3 23.5 1.2 22.1 -1.4
In Zone % 47.6 49 1.4 52.5 3.5
Out of Zone % 52.4 51 -1.4 47.5 -3.5
Out of Zone Swing % 27.4 27.8 0.4 26.1 -1.7
First Pitch Swing % 28.3 25.6 -2.7 32.5 6.9
First Pitch Strike % 58.6 59.2 0.6 62.3 3.1
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2019 748 .324 408 79 19.4 340 171 50.3
2020 124 .275 70 16 22.9 54 31 57.4
2021 360 .325 180 48 26.7 180 92 51.1

Pitch Distribution