Merrill Kelly
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 202LBS | Age: 34

Draft: 2010 | Rd: 8, #251, Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona State

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2022 13 8 3.37 33 33 0 200.1 177 1.14
4 Seasons 36 35 3.96 97 97 0 573.0 494 1.23
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2022 33 13-8 3.37 200.1 177 1.14
4 Seasons 97 36-35 3.96 573.0 494 1.23

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 30 2962 558 53 9.5 6.8 89.9 112.7 12.5 33.2 .271 .493 .318 .345 .409 40.0 20.3 7.3 4.42 5.37
2020 31 473 90 10 11.1 8.0 88.5 115.0 13.3 36.7 .245 .437 .275 .304 .382 40.0 23.2 4.0 2.58 3.90
2021 32 2425 492 31 6.3 4.6 89.0 114.9 12.9 33.1 .271 .432 .319 .324 .379 39.6 19.5 6.1 4.44 4.48
2022 33 3071 564 47 8.3 5.8 88.5 111.7 14.0 31.2 .230 .383 .289 .296 .347 36.5 22.0 7.6 3.37 3.62
Player 8931 1704 141 8.3 5.9 89.1 115.0 13.2 32.7 .256 .435 .306 .320 .378 38.7 20.8 6.9
MLB 6.7 4.6 88.4 122.4 12.1 33.0 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 35.8 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 6 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(29.2%) ,
Changeup
(21.9%) ,
Cutter
(18.3%) ,
Sinker
(17%) ,
Curveball
(13.5%) ,
Slider
(0.2%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 43.2 25.8 25.3 5.7 41.2 35.8 22.9 2.3 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.6 9.5 6.8
2020 45.6 18.9 23.3 12.2 46.7 31.1 22.2 4.4 28.9 25.6 21.1 6.7 11.1 8.0
2021 44.7 24.2 25.2 5.9 41.9 33.1 25.0 5.5 28.0 24.8 28.0 7.3 6.3 4.6
2022 43.8 28.4 21.6 6.2 41.1 36.9 22.0 3.4 33.5 28.0 21.3 4.8 8.3 5.8
Player 44.0 25.8 23.9 6.3 41.7 35.2 23.2 3.7 31.3 25.9 24.2 5.9 8.3 5.9
MLB 44.9 23.1 25.0 7.1 36.8 37.7 25.4 3.8 33.0 24.6 24.4 5.7 6.7 4.6
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2022 4-Seamer AZ R 895 92.6 16.6 -0.5 -3 8.1 0.0 -1
2022 Sinker AZ R 522 92.6 24.4 1.0 4 16.1 0.9 6
2022 Changeup AZ R 671 88.6 32.3 2.6 9 16.6 2.0 14
2022 Curveball AZ R 413 82.2 50.9 2.2 4 9.1 0.0 0
2022 Slider AZ R 6 85.0 34.5 -1.9 -5 1.8 -4.5 -71
2022 Cutter AZ R 562 90.9 20.1 3.9 16 1.6 -3.0 -217
2021 Cutter AZ R 343 90.8 20.2 4.1 17 1.7 -3.2 -213
2021 4-Seamer AZ R 775 91.7 16.8 -0.4 -3 7.2 -0.5 -7
2021 Changeup AZ R 422 87.2 30.3 0.6 2 15.3 1.0 7
2021 Sinker AZ R 447 91.6 23.9 0.6 2 15.3 0.5 3
2021 Curveball AZ R 438 81.3 51.3 0.7 1 9.1 0.0 0
2020 Cutter AZ R 95 90.8 19.7 4.8 20 0.3 -2.2 -117
2020 Sinker AZ R 83 91.8 24.1 1.2 5 15.8 1.0 7
2020 Curveball AZ R 105 81.2 52.7 2.5 5 9.3 0.2 3
2020 Changeup AZ R 73 87.5 29.3 -0.5 -2 16.4 2.7 20
2020 4-Seamer AZ R 117 92.1 16.2 0.2 1 6.1 -1.6 -21
2019 4-Seamer AZ R 1,106 92.0 17.2 -0.5 -3 4.7 -2.9 -38
2019 Cutter AZ R 539 89.9 23.2 2.5 10 2.1 0.4 23
2019 Sinker AZ R 287 91.5 24.2 0.8 4 13.9 -0.8 -5
2019 Changeup AZ R 398 86.0 23.9 -6.0 -20 12.6 -1.2 -8
2019 Curveball AZ R 632 80.6 55.3 3.0 6 9.6 0.6 7
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2022 4-Seamer -0.9 -8 896 29.2 229 .210 .365 .306 23.3 25.8 22.1 .191 .343 .287 39.7
2022 Changeup -0.1 -1 671 21.8 197 .243 .362 .284 28.5 23.9 20.3 .219 .315 .257 30.7
2022 Cutter -0.7 -4 562 18.3 139 .197 .394 .278 21.1 18.7 22.6 .217 .429 .295 34.0
2022 Sinker -0.4 -2 522 17.0 148 .254 .384 .310 16.4 14.2 17.1 .290 .470 .353 39.3
2022 Curveball 0.7 3 414 13.5 87 .232 .354 .288 27.9 26.4 18.4 .280 .424 .326 42.4
2022 Slider -2.1 0 6 0.2 2 .000 .000 .000 50.0 50.0 33.3 .010 .018 .013 0.0
2021 4-Seamer 0.8 6 775 32.0 191 .311 .598 .411 18.9 17.3 18.6 .257 .516 .361 43.5
2021 Sinker 0.7 3 447 18.4 126 .291 .410 .327 12.9 15.1 18.1 .310 .443 .344 48.0
2021 Curveball -0.2 -1 438 18.1 127 .213 .352 .274 25.7 26.8 23.8 .244 .391 .289 42.0
2021 Changeup -0.3 -1 422 17.4 114 .257 .367 .291 27.4 16.7 15.1 .291 .421 .320 36.3
2021 Cutter -1.1 -4 343 14.1 106 .240 .360 .284 16.1 23.6 25.0 .257 .342 .284 22.7
2020 4-Seamer 0.2 0 117 24.7 22 .250 .500 .350 22.9 18.2 13.8 .190 .348 .266 43.8
2020 Curveball -1.2 -1 105 22.2 23 .227 .227 .265 28.2 39.1 27.3 .251 .379 .287 53.8
2020 Cutter -2.6 -2 95 20.1 24 .174 .478 .298 6.5 8.3 9.5 .313 .608 .399 33.3
2020 Sinker -5.7 -5 83 17.5 31 .167 .200 .208 22.5 22.6 28.0 .235 .343 .264 43.5
2020 Changeup 3.3 2 73 15.4 24 .292 .625 .361 38.6 29.2 36.8 .234 .527 .317 29.4
2019 4-Seamer -0.9 -10 1,106 37.3 264 .241 .406 .324 20.2 22.0 19.3 .252 .492 .355 41.6
2019 Curveball -0.3 -2 632 21.3 165 .215 .417 .273 30.1 34.5 23.8 .222 .384 .261 47.2
2019 Cutter 0.2 1 539 18.2 163 .277 .458 .336 19.1 12.3 16.3 .298 .504 .354 39.3
2019 Changeup 0.6 2 398 13.4 103 .316 .537 .399 24.1 13.6 13.5 .314 .608 .405 29.6
2019 Sinker 1.5 4 287 9.7 78 .306 .500 .384 16.2 11.5 16.7 .328 .567 .400 38.1
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 73 87.5 82 18.2 1:45 2:30 -45
2020 Curveball 104 81.2 70 16.7 7:45 7:15 30
2020 Cutter 95 90.8 61 12.7 12:45 12:00 45
2020 4-Seam Fastball 116 92.1 79 16.7 1:00 12:45 15
2020 Sinker 76 91.8 76 18.5 1:00 2:15 -75
2021 Changeup 416 87.2 79 16.8 1:45 2:30 -45
2021 Curveball 437 81.3 67 15.7 7:45 7:15 30
2021 Cutter 343 90.8 67 12.2 1:00 12:15 45
2021 4-Seam Fastball 775 91.7 80 16.8 1:15 1:00 15
2021 Sinker 434 91.6 77 17.9 1:15 2:15 -60
2022 Changeup 650 88.6 86 17.5 2:00 2:45 -45
2022 Curveball 406 82.2 67 15.9 7:45 7:15 30
2022 Cutter 555 90.9 64 12.3 1:00 12:15 45
2022 4-Seam Fastball 889 92.6 81 17.0 1:15 1:00 15
2022 Sinker 514 92.6 80 18.2 1:15 2:15 -60
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 773 2,960 -5 -30 23 8 -5
2020 124 473 -1 -9 4 0 -6
2021 664 2,425 -6 -12 13 9 3
2022 802 3,070 -1 -38 18 9 -12
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 2,962 47.5 68.9 82.9 27.5 64.0 44.5 58.6 47.2 22.3 7.5 74.8
2020 473 48.8 64.5 83.2 28.1 61.8 44.8 59.2 45.9 23.5 6.1 79.3
2021 2,425 51.3 70.3 85.9 26.8 58.0 44.7 62.2 49.2 20.3 7.8 80.3
2022 3,071 49.3 67.7 81.9 29.9 63.7 45.4 62.4 48.5 23.6 6.9 81.2
Player 8,931 49.2 68.7 83.4 28.2 62.3 44.9 60.9 48.1 22.2 7.3 78.7
MLB 48.5 66.9 82.0 28.4 58.3 42.6 60.8 47.1 24.7 7.2 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2019 17 16 10 9 35 1 13 17 20 27 63 25 31 26 81 72 59
2020 59 44 32 28 80 23 11 47 30 50 95 28 54 32 75 64 55
2021 34 15 30 48 41 19 72 46 41 21 81 11 37 25 68 63 48
2022 60 59 47 37 68 2 31 49 62 44 52 30 54 29 69 59 33
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.5 29 30.1 -1 12 21 16 55.2
2020 21.7 5 5.7 -1 2 4 3 60.0
2021 23.8 21 20.4 1 10 17 8 38.1
2022 23.2 21 22.1 -1 7 17 10 47.6
Player 23.0 76 78.3 -2 31 59 37 48.7

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 29 37 33 29 28 27 30 39 31 25 29 27 21 26 26 36 27 38 24 29 36 25 25 34 32 31 35 25 35 27 36
2020 5 6 6 5 4 7 0 5 6 6 8 6 5 4 4 7 6 7 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 6 6 7
2021 21 23 23 17 17 23 18 25 19 20 23 24 14 15 16 22 23 22 19 16 21 19 20 24 22 22 23 16 20 18 27
2022 21 24 25 24 23 25 21 19 24 23 24 18 18 20 19 25 24 25 21 21 24 21 20 23 25 23 23 19 21 15 27
Player 76 90 87 75 72 82 69 88 80 74 84 75 58 65 65 90 80 92 68 70 87 71 71 87 85 81 87 64 82 66 97
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 91.3 91.6 0.3 91.5 -0.1 92.1 0.6
Offspeed Velocity 86 87.5 1.5 87.2 -0.3 88.6 1.4
Breaking Velocity 80.6 81.2 0.6 81.3 0.1 82.2 0.9
Exit Velocity 89.9 88.5 -1.4 89 0.5 88.5 -0.5
Launch Angle 12.5 13.3 0.8 12.9 -0.4 14 1.1
Barrel % 9.5 11.1 1.6 6.3 -4.8 8.3 2
Hard Hit % 40 40 0 39.6 -0.4 36.5 -3.1
Sweet Spot % 33.2 36.7 3.5 33.1 -3.6 31.2 -1.9
xBA .271 .245 -0.026 .271 0.026 .23 -0.041
BA .26 .218 -0.042 .266 0.048 .226 -0.04
xwOBA .345 .304 -0.041 .324 0.02 .296 -0.028
wOBA .318 .275 -0.043 .319 0.044 .289 -0.03
xSLG .493 .437 -0.056 .432 -0.005 .383 -0.049
SLG .447 .395 -0.052 .433 0.038 .371 -0.062
K% 20.3 23.2 2.9 19.5 -3.7 22 2.5
BB% 7.3 4 -3.3 6.1 2.1 7.6 1.5
Swing % 47.2 45.9 -1.3 49.2 3.3 48.5 -0.7
Whiff% 22.3 23.5 1.2 20.3 -3.2 23.6 3.3
In Zone % 47.5 48.8 1.3 51.3 2.5 49.3 -2
Out of Zone % 52.5 51.2 -1.3 48.7 -2.5 50.7 2
Out of Zone Swing % 27.5 28.1 0.6 26.8 -1.3 29.9 3.1
First Pitch Swing % 28.4 25.6 -2.8 32.9 7.3 31.6 -1.3
First Pitch Strike % 58.6 59.2 0.6 62.2 3 62.4 0.2
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2019 748 .324 408 79 19.4 340 171 50.3
2020 124 .275 70 16 22.9 54 31 57.4
2021 664 .319 347 87 25.1 317 160 50.5
2022 801 .288 432 80 18.5 369 187 50.7

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2019 903 18.5 6.5% 1.4% 484 25.7 0.0% 17.8%
2020 175 18.5 1.1% 1.7% 53 23.8 0.0% 11.3%
2021 739 17.7 11.1% 1.8% 336 24.9 0.0% 18.5%
2022 936 17.0 24.4% 2.5% 449 23.0 0.2% 12.5%
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Pitch Distribution