Merrill Kelly
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 202LBS | Age: 33

Draft: 2010 | Rd: 8, #251, Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona State
Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2022 3 1 1.71 7 7 0 42.0 38 1.12
4 Seasons 26 28 4.02 71 71 0 414.2 355 1.26
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2022 7 3-1 1.71 42.0 38 1.12
4 Seasons 71 26-28 4.02 414.2 355 1.26

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 30 2962 558 53 9.5 6.8 89.9 112.7 12.4 33.2 .272 .495 .318 .346 .410 40.0 20.3 7.3 4.42 5.41
2020 31 473 90 10 11.1 8 88.5 115.0 13.3 36.7 .246 .437 .275 .305 .383 40.0 23.2 4.0 2.58 3.90
2021 32 2425 492 31 6.3 4.6 89.0 114.9 12.9 33.1 .271 .432 .319 .324 .379 39.6 19.5 6.1 4.44 4.48
2022 33 628 120 9 7.5 5.3 87.5 111.3 11.2 36.7 .253 .420 .270 .312 .373 35.0 22.4 6.5 1.71 3.39
Player 6488 1260 103 8.2 5.9 89.2 115.0 12.6 33.7 .268 .459 .311 .331 .392 39.4 20.4 6.6
MLB 6.7 4.6 88.3 169.8 12.0 32.9 .246 .408 .317 .316 .369 35.6 22.0 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(28.3%) ,
Changeup
(24.2%) ,
Cutter
(21%) ,
Sinker
(13.7%) ,
Curveball
(12.7%) ,


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Pitch Tracking

Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway%
2022 4-Seam Fastball 178 125 53 28.3 92.6 39 33 8 3 5 0 0 7 26 .242 .267 .394 .454 .340 .363 87.7 21 2363 6.2 19.5 15.2
2022 Changeup 152 89 63 24.2 88.3 48 46 9 7 2 0 0 14 33 .196 .204 .239 .298 .203 .222 84.6 -4 2206 6.2 29.5 25.9
2022 Cutter 132 82 50 21.0 90.9 39 38 8 5 2 0 1 6 32 .211 .252 .342 .517 .254 .329 86.4 20 2347 6.2 22.7 23.1
2022 Sinker 86 63 23 13.7 92.5 29 27 8 7 1 0 0 7 20 .296 .290 .333 .460 .308 .341 90.3 4 2229 6.2 14.3 24.1
2022 Curveball 80 50 30 12.7 81.9 15 13 3 3 0 0 0 4 9 .231 .311 .231 .399 .271 .356 91.1 11 2558 6.2 21.9 14.8
2021 4-Seam Fastball 775 398 377 32.0 91.7 191 164 51 28 10 2 11 33 138 .311 .258 .598 .516 .407 .360 89.2 23 2359 6.3 18.9 18.6
2021 Sinker 447 345 102 18.4 91.6 126 117 34 24 8 0 2 19 100 .291 .310 .410 .444 .322 .344 91.5 6 2242 6.3 12.9 18.1
2021 Curveball 438 232 206 18.1 81.3 127 122 26 18 3 1 4 34 88 .213 .245 .352 .392 .257 .289 88.9 4 2564 6.2 25.7 23.8
2021 Changeup 422 151 271 17.4 87.2 114 109 28 21 4 1 2 19 91 .257 .292 .367 .422 .279 .321 87.4 4 1969 6.3 27.4 15.1
2021 Cutter 343 159 184 14.1 90.8 106 100 24 16 6 0 2 25 75 .240 .257 .360 .342 .280 .284 82.8 20 2321 6.3 16.1 25.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 43.2 25.8 25.3 5.7 41.4 35.8 22.8 2.5 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.6 9.5 6.8
2020 45.6 18.9 23.3 12.2 46.7 31.1 22.2 4.4 28.9 25.6 21.1 6.7 11.1 8.0
2021 44.7 24.2 25.2 5.9 41.9 33.1 25.0 5.5 28.0 24.8 28.0 7.3 6.3 4.6
2022 45.8 24.2 26.7 3.3 44.2 39.2 16.7 4.2 36.7 23.3 21.7 6.7 7.5 5.3
Player 44.2 24.5 25.2 6.0 42.2 34.8 23.0 4.0 30.9 24.8 25.3 6.4 8.2 5.9
MLB 45.0 22.8 25.1 7.1 36.6 37.8 25.4 3.8 33.2 24.4 24.4 5.7 6.7 4.6
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2022 Changeup ARI R 152 88.3 32.3 2.7 9 17.2 2.5 17
2022 4-Seamer ARI R 178 92.6 16.3 -0.6 -4 8.2 0.6 7
2022 Cutter ARI R 132 90.9 19.9 4.2 18 2.0 -3.5 -224
2022 Sinker ARI R 86 92.5 23.5 0.7 3 16.4 1.0 7
2022 Curveball ARI R 80 81.9 51.7 2.3 5 8.3 -0.9 -10
2021 Cutter ARI R 343 90.8 20.2 4.1 17 1.7 -3.2 -213
2021 Changeup ARI R 422 87.2 30.3 0.6 2 15.3 1.0 7
2021 Curveball ARI R 438 81.3 51.3 0.8 1 9.1 -0.1 -1
2021 Sinker ARI R 447 91.6 23.9 0.7 3 15.3 0.6 4
2021 4-Seamer ARI R 775 91.7 16.8 -0.4 -3 7.2 -0.5 -6
2020 Changeup ARI R 73 87.5 29.3 -0.5 -2 16.4 2.7 20
2020 Sinker ARI R 83 91.8 24.1 1.3 6 15.8 1.1 7
2020 Curveball ARI R 105 81.2 52.7 2.5 5 9.3 0.2 3
2020 Cutter ARI R 95 90.8 19.7 4.8 20 0.3 -2.2 -117
2020 4-Seamer ARI R 117 92.1 16.2 0.2 1 6.1 -1.5 -20
2019 Sinker ARI R 287 91.5 24.2 0.9 4 13.9 -0.7 -5
2019 Changeup ARI R 398 86.0 23.9 -6.0 -20 12.6 -1.2 -8
2019 4-Seamer ARI R 1,106 92.0 17.2 -0.5 -3 4.7 -2.8 -38
2019 Cutter ARI R 539 89.9 23.2 2.5 10 2.1 0.4 22
2019 Curveball ARI R 632 80.6 55.3 3.0 6 9.6 0.6 7
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2022 4-Seamer -0.3 -1 178 28.3 39 .242 .394 .337 19.5 17.9 15.2 .267 .454 .364 42.3
2022 Changeup -2.6 -4 152 24.2 48 .196 .239 .221 29.5 29.2 25.9 .204 .298 .222 24.2
2022 Cutter -0.7 -1 132 21.0 39 .211 .342 .249 22.7 15.4 23.1 .252 .517 .329 37.5
2022 Sinker -1.9 -2 86 13.7 29 .296 .333 .309 14.3 24.1 24.1 .290 .460 .342 40.0
2022 Curveball 1.0 1 80 12.7 15 .231 .231 .333 21.9 26.7 14.8 .311 .399 .357 33.3
2021 4-Seamer 0.8 6 775 32.0 191 .311 .598 .411 18.9 17.3 18.6 .258 .516 .361 43.5
2021 Sinker 0.7 3 447 18.4 126 .291 .410 .327 12.9 15.1 18.1 .310 .444 .344 48.0
2021 Curveball -0.2 -1 438 18.1 127 .213 .352 .274 25.7 26.8 23.8 .245 .392 .289 42.0
2021 Changeup -0.3 -1 422 17.4 114 .257 .367 .291 27.4 16.7 15.1 .292 .422 .321 36.3
2021 Cutter -1.1 -4 343 14.1 106 .240 .360 .284 16.1 23.6 25.0 .257 .342 .285 22.7
2020 4-Seamer 0.2 0 117 24.7 22 .250 .500 .350 22.9 18.2 13.8 .191 .349 .267 43.8
2020 Curveball -1.2 -1 105 22.2 23 .227 .227 .265 28.2 39.1 27.3 .249 .378 .285 53.8
2020 Cutter -2.6 -2 95 20.1 24 .174 .478 .298 6.5 8.3 9.5 .313 .607 .399 33.3
2020 Sinker -5.7 -5 83 17.5 31 .167 .200 .208 22.5 22.6 28.0 .238 .346 .266 43.5
2020 Changeup 3.3 2 73 15.4 24 .292 .625 .361 38.6 29.2 36.8 .234 .528 .318 29.4
2019 4-Seamer -0.9 -10 1,106 37.3 264 .241 .406 .324 20.2 22.0 19.3 .252 .492 .355 41.6
2019 Curveball -0.3 -2 632 21.3 165 .215 .417 .273 30.1 34.5 23.8 .223 .384 .261 47.2
2019 Cutter 0.2 1 539 18.2 163 .277 .458 .334 19.1 12.3 16.3 .299 .511 .357 39.3
2019 Changeup 0.6 2 398 13.4 103 .316 .537 .399 24.1 13.6 13.5 .314 .608 .406 29.6
2019 Sinker 1.5 4 287 9.7 78 .306 .500 .384 16.2 11.5 16.7 .329 .567 .401 38.1
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 73 87.5 82 18.2 1:45 2:30 -45
2020 Curveball 104 81.2 70 16.7 7:45 7:15 30
2020 Cutter 95 90.8 61 12.7 12:45 12:00 45
2020 4-Seam Fastball 116 92.1 79 16.7 1:00 12:45 15
2020 Sinker 76 91.8 76 18.5 1:00 2:15 -75
2021 Changeup 416 87.2 79 16.8 1:45 2:30 -45
2021 Curveball 437 81.3 67 15.7 7:45 7:15 30
2021 Cutter 343 90.8 67 12.2 1:00 12:15 45
2021 4-Seam Fastball 775 91.7 80 16.8 1:15 1:00 15
2021 Sinker 434 91.6 77 17.9 1:15 2:15 -60
2022 Changeup 147 88.3 84 18.2 1:45 2:45 -60
2022 Curveball 79 81.9 67 15.7 7:45 7:00 45
2022 Cutter 132 90.9 64 12.7 12:45 12:15 30
2022 4-Seam Fastball 178 92.6 81 17.4 1:15 1:00 15
2022 Sinker 83 92.5 80 18.9 1:15 2:15 -60
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 773 2,960 -5 -30 23 7 -5
2020 124 473 -1 -9 4 0 -6
2021 664 2,425 -5 -13 13 9 3
2022 170 628 -2 -10 5 2 -6
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 2,962 47.6 68.9 82.9 27.4 63.8 44.5 58.6 47.2 22.3 7.5 74.8
2020 473 49.0 64.7 82.7 27.8 62.7 44.8 59.2 45.9 23.5 6.1 79.3
2021 2,425 51.3 70.3 85.9 26.8 58.0 44.7 62.2 49.2 20.3 7.8 80.4
2022 628 47.9 68.4 82.5 34.6 68.1 45.5 67.1 50.8 22.6 7.0 75.0
Player 6,488 49.1 69.1 84.1 28.0 62.3 44.7 60.9 48.2 21.6 7.5 77.3
MLB 48.5 66.8 82.0 28.3 58.4 42.6 60.7 47.0 24.6 7.2 76.0
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2019 16 16 9 9 35 1 12 17 21 27 63 25 16 26 81 72
2020 58 43 32 28 80 23 11 47 30 50 95 28 58 32 75 64
2021 34 15 30 48 41 19 72 46 41 21 81 11 34 25 68 63
2022 59 46 50 50 65 9 47 71 70 52 69 31 59 30 72 66
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.5 29 33.0 -4.0 17 21 18 62.1
2020 21.7 5 6.3 -1.0 3 5 3 60.0
2021 23.8 21 25.5 -5.0 15 20 10 47.6
2022 20.3 1 1.5 -1.0 3 2 0 0.0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 29 34 40 32 38 29 34 40 31 33 38 31 22 31 32 39 26 40 32 35 21 29 25 35 34 38 37 29 38 29 38
2020 5 7 8 6 7 6 0 6 6 7 8 6 5 4 5 7 5 8 5 6 5 5 5 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 7
2021 21 28 30 24 30 22 24 29 23 25 32 30 17 23 22 27 19 29 27 26 13 23 26 27 29 30 24 21 30 23 33
2022 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 4 1 2
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights and distances, but does not attempt to adjust for environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 91.3 91.6 0.3 91.5 -0.1 92 0.5
Offspeed Velocity 86 87.5 1.5 87.2 -0.3 88.3 1.1
Breaking Velocity 80.6 81.2 0.6 81.3 0.1 81.9 0.6
Exit Velocity 89.9 88.5 -1.4 89 0.5 87.5 -1.5
Launch Angle 12.4 13.3 0.9 12.9 -0.4 11.2 -1.7
Barrel % 9.5 11.1 1.6 6.3 -4.8 7.5 1.2
Hard Hit % 40 40 0 39.6 -0.4 35 -4.6
Sweet Spot % 33.2 36.7 3.5 33.1 -3.6 36.7 3.6
xBA .272 .246 -0.026 .271 0.025 .253 -0.018
BA .26 .218 -0.042 .266 0.048 .229 -0.037
xwOBA .346 .305 -0.041 .324 0.019 .312 -0.012
wOBA .318 .275 -0.043 .319 0.044 .27 -0.049
xSLG .495 .437 -0.058 .432 -0.005 .42 -0.012
SLG .447 .395 -0.052 .433 0.038 .312 -0.121
K% 20.3 23.2 2.9 19.5 -3.7 22.4 2.9
BB% 7.3 4 -3.3 6.1 2.1 6.5 0.4
Swing % 47.2 45.9 -1.3 49.2 3.3 50.8 1.6
Whiff% 22.3 23.5 1.2 20.3 -3.2 22.6 2.3
In Zone % 47.6 49 1.4 51.3 2.3 47.9 -3.4
Out of Zone % 52.4 51 -1.4 48.7 -2.3 52.1 3.4
Out of Zone Swing % 27.4 27.8 0.4 26.8 -1 34.6 7.8
First Pitch Swing % 28.4 25.6 -2.8 32.9 7.3 38.8 5.9
First Pitch Strike % 58.6 59.2 0.6 62.2 3 67.1 4.9
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2019 748 .324 408 79 19.4 340 171 50.3
2020 124 .275 70 16 22.9 54 31 57.4
2021 664 .319 347 87 25.1 317 160 50.5
2022 169 .267 100 11 11.0 69 30 43.5

Pitch Distribution