Merrill Kelly
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 2" 202LBS | Age: 36
Draft: 2010 | Rd: 8, #251, Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona State
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 12 8 3.29 30 30 0 177.2 187 1.19
2024 5 1 4.03 13 13 0 73.2 63 1.17
2025 3 1 4.41 6 6 0 32.2 25 1.10
7 Seasons 56 45 3.84 146 146 0 857 769 1.21
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 30 12-8 3.29 177.2 187 1.19
2024 13 5-1 4.03 73.2 63 1.17
2025 6 3-1 4.41 32.2 25 1.10
7 Seasons 146 56-45 3.84 857 769 1.21
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
?

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 30 2962 558 53 9.5 6.8 89.9 112.7 12.5 33.2 .271 .493 .318 .344 .409 40.0 20.3 7.3 4.42 5.34
2020 31 473 90 10 11.1 8.0 88.5 115.0 13.3 36.7 .245 .436 .275 .304 .381 40.0 23.2 4.0 2.58 3.90
2021 32 2425 492 31 6.3 4.6 89.0 114.9 12.9 33.1 .270 .431 .319 .324 .378 39.6 19.5 6.1 4.44 4.48
2022 33 3071 564 47 8.3 5.8 88.5 111.7 14.0 31.2 .230 .383 .289 .296 .346 36.5 22.0 7.6 3.37 3.62
2023 34 2803 462 36 7.8 5.0 89.6 113.2 11.8 35.1 .244 .389 .294 .313 .379 41.8 25.9 9.4 3.29 4.13
2024 35 1142 215 23 10.7 7.7 90.5 110.0 11.0 33.5 .263 .470 .311 .340 .405 40.9 21.0 6.3 4.03 4.94
2025 36 516 97 11 11.3 8.1 90.4 112.9 13.7 29.9 .269 .490 .290 .358 .404 46.4 18.5 8.9 4.41 4.98
Player 13392 2478 211 8.5 6.0 89.4 115.0 12.7 33.1 .254 .431 .304 .322 .381 39.8 21.8 7.5
MLB 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 36.6 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 6 pitches.
Four Seamer
(28.5%) ,
Changeup
(24.0%) ,
Cutter
(15.1%) ,
Sinker
(12.6%) ,
Curveball
(10.9%) ,
Slider
(8.9%) ,


  •   
  •   
  •   

+ If Available Pitches Click to Video.


  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   

Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2019 43.2 56.8 25.8 25.3 5.7 41.2 35.8 22.9 21.7 16.7 4.8 19.5 19.2 18.1
2020 45.6 54.4 18.9 23.3 12.2 46.7 31.1 22.2 24.4 16.7 4.4 22.2 14.4 17.8
2021 44.7 55.3 24.2 25.2 5.9 41.9 33.1 25.0 22.4 17.3 5.1 19.5 15.9 19.9
2022 43.8 56.2 28.4 21.6 6.2 41.1 36.9 22.0 23.0 16.8 3.9 18.1 20.0 18.1
2023 45.7 54.3 23.6 24.0 6.7 42.4 37.2 20.3 25.1 17.1 3.5 17.3 20.1 16.9
2024 42.8 57.2 29.8 23.3 4.2 42.3 34.4 23.3 23.7 13.5 5.6 18.6 20.9 17.7
2025 43.3 56.7 30.9 18.6 7.2 33.0 39.2 27.8 19.6 19.6 4.1 13.4 19.6 23.7
Player 44.1 55.9 25.9 23.7 6.2 41.5 35.6 22.8 23.0 16.7 4.4 18.6 18.9 18.4
MLB 44.4 55.6 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.4 25.2 20.6 17.8 5.9 16.6 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 2.3 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.6 9.5 6.8
2020 4.4 28.9 25.6 21.1 6.7 11.1 8.0
2021 5.5 28.0 24.8 28.0 7.3 6.3 4.6
2022 3.4 33.5 28.0 21.3 4.8 8.3 5.8
2023 3.7 33.8 22.5 24.9 7.4 7.8 5.0
2024 2.3 33.0 21.4 25.6 6.0 10.7 7.7
2025 3.1 29.9 23.7 23.7 8.2 11.3 8.1
Player 3.6 31.9 24.8 24.5 6.3 8.5 6.0
MLB 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 4-Seam Fastball AZ R 147 91.8 17.3 -0.7 9.0ARM 0.4 15.4 -0.6 9.0ARM 1.4
2025 Sinker AZ R 65 92.3 25.8 0.4 17.0ARM 1.0 6.6 0.8 17.0ARM 1.6
2025 Slider AZ R 46 86.0 33.4 -2.4 2.0GLV -2.8 3.5 -1.7 2.0GLV -2.9
2025 Cutter AZ R 78 90.4 20.8 4.4 2.3ARM -3.8 12.6 4.1 2.3ARM -4.5
2025 Changeup AZ R 124 88.1 35.0 3.0 16.3ARM 1.0 0.4 3.8 16.3ARM 1.6
2025 Curveball AZ R 56 81.6 51.4 0.2 8.7GLV -1.0 -10.2 0.4 8.7GLV -0.9
2024 4-Seam Fastball AZ R 233 91.9 17.9 -1.0 8.4ARM -0.1 14.4 -1.3 8.4ARM 0.8
2024 Sinker AZ R 158 92.4 25.5 0.6 15.4ARM 0.0 6.6 0.6 15.4ARM 0.5
2024 Curveball AZ R 89 82.2 50.4 0.7 8.8GLV -0.4 -10.0 0.0 8.8GLV -0.6
2024 Changeup AZ R 239 88.4 33.9 3.1 14.4ARM -0.4 1.0 3.9 14.4ARM 0.2
2024 Slider AZ R 135 85.6 34.9 -1.1 2.8GLV -2.3 2.2 -0.6 2.8GLV -2.1
2024 Cutter AZ R 288 90.3 22.5 2.6 1.3ARM -2.9 10.8 2.5 1.3ARM -4.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 4-Seam Fastball -2.0 -3 147 28.5 33 .290 .774 .453 20.6 21.2 21.9 .270 .647 .402 50.0
2025 Changeup 2.2 3 124 24.0 38 .118 .147 .201 25.0 21.1 17.8 .199 .293 .262 38.5
2025 Cutter 0.7 1 78 15.1 21 .100 .300 .188 20.6 19.0 30.8 .248 .557 .351 50.0
2025 Sinker -3.6 -2 65 12.6 25 .300 .400 .420 0.0 20.0 16.1 .343 .482 .426 60.0
2025 Curveball 1.7 1 56 10.9 10 .222 .222 .250 16.7 10.0 5.9 .348 .534 .410 50.0
2025 Slider 2.6 1 46 8.9 8 .125 .125 .113 42.9 0.0 0.0 .337 .518 .367 25.0
2024 Cutter 0.3 1 288 25.2 68 .276 .500 .374 10.9 13.2 18.8 .301 .573 .412 50.0
2024 Changeup 4.4 11 239 20.9 74 .099 .099 .115 31.5 25.7 23.8 .165 .201 .183 23.1
2024 4-Seam Fastball -1.7 -4 233 20.4 52 .260 .540 .384 19.6 25.0 21.0 .255 .638 .386 59.5
2024 Sinker -2.9 -5 158 13.8 50 .378 .644 .462 9.1 18.0 16.7 .393 .634 .466 44.4
2024 Slider -0.3 0 135 11.8 35 .273 .455 .343 39.4 25.7 17.3 .217 .313 .260 25.0
2024 Curveball -1.5 -1 89 7.8 21 .250 .550 .352 20.5 19.0 16.7 .294 .577 .384 43.8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 Changeup 117 88.1 81 17.3 2:00 3:15 -75
2025 Curveball 56 81.6 61 15.6 7:45 7:15 30
2025 Cutter 78 90.4 63 12.1 1:00 12:15 45
2025 4-Seam Fastball 147 91.8 82 17.4 1:30 1:00 30
2025 Sinker 64 92.3 82 18.7 1:30 2:30 -60
2025 Slider 46 86.0 20 3.5 11:15 10:30 45
2024 Changeup 233 88.4 78 15.2 2:00 3:00 -60
2024 Curveball 89 82.2 66 15.3 7:45 7:15 30
2024 Cutter 287 90.3 61 10.1 1:00 12:15 45
2024 4-Seam Fastball 231 91.9 81 16.2 1:30 1:00 30
2024 Sinker 156 92.4 78 17.1 1:30 2:15 -45
2024 Slider 135 85.6 22 3.7 10:30 9:45 45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
+ Show More Seasons
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
+ View Complete Spin Direction Leaderboard

Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
+ View Complete Arm Angle Leaderboard

Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 773 2,960 7 36 -23 -8 12
2020 124 473 2 8 -4 -1 5
2021 664 2,425 9 16 -15 -10 1
2022 802 3,070 10 42 -21 -9 21
2023 721 2,803 6 36 -17 -9 16
2024 300 1,142 -2 12 -5 -3 1
2025 135 516 -2 7 -4 -2 0
Player 3,519 13,389 30 156 -88 30 56
+ View Complete Pitching Run Value Leaderboard
+ Show Leverage-Based Run Value

Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 2,962 47.5 68.8 82.9 27.6 64.1 44.5 58.6 47.2 22.4 7.5 74.8
2020 473 48.8 64.5 83.2 28.1 61.8 44.8 59.2 45.9 23.5 6.1 79.3
2021 2,425 51.3 70.3 86.0 26.9 57.9 44.6 62.2 49.2 20.6 7.8 80.3
2022 3,071 49.3 67.7 81.9 29.9 63.7 45.4 62.4 48.5 23.6 6.9 81.1
2023 2,803 45.5 68.3 81.3 32.9 57.1 46.1 61.0 49.1 27.0 6.4 79.9
2024 1,142 46.9 68.1 86.3 30.5 62.2 47.7 63.0 48.2 21.3 6.4 79.5
2025 516 49.8 66.9 86.0 26.6 59.4 43.4 65.9 46.7 21.2 7.4 60.5
Player 13,392 48.3 68.5 83.4 29.4 60.9 45.3 61.3 48.3 23.2 7.0 78.2
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.0 28.5 57.7 42.6 61.1 47.2 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2019 18 16 10 9 35 1 13 17 20 27 63 25 32 29 81 72 60
2020 58 44 32 28 81 23 11 47 30 50 95 28 53 29 74 63 55
2021 34 15 30 48 41 19 72 46 41 21 81 12 38 23 71 62 49
2022 59 59 46 37 68 2 31 50 62 44 52 29 54 28 69 58 34
2023 51 49 60 67 46 14 51 34 30 69 34 58 88 22 69 62 28
2024 11 16 5 4 43 35 6 9 32 33 77 15 70 20 71 68 18
2025 25 30 19 17 37 3 23 30 23 27 49 21 41 17 63 64 14
+ View Complete Percentile Rankings Leaderboard

Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.5 29 30.7 -2 14 21 16 55.2
2020 21.7 5 5.0 0 2 4 2 40.0
2021 23.8 21 19.3 2 13 12 9 42.9
2022 23.2 21 21.3 0 4 16 10 47.6
2023 23.4 24 19.9 4 10 19 7 29.2
2024 23.4 11 12.1 -1 3 11 3 27.3
2025 23.2 5 4.6 0 3 5 2 40.0
Player 23.1 116 112.9 3 49 88 49 42.2
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
+ View Standard Expected Home Runs

Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2019 29 39 25 28 29 30 33 30 25 21 26 35 38 32 29 29 28 26 33 31 33 36 35 38 29 27 28 36 40 28 24
2020 5 4 6 6 4 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 6 4 4
2021 21 22 19 21 19 16 20 23 15 15 16 24 22 17 17 21 18 18 21 19 21 19 26 21 17 16 23 19 22 16 17
2022 21 20 17 22 24 20 25 17 20 17 18 22 23 22 24 25 19 19 22 23 24 21 26 23 17 17 24 23 24 21 19
2023 24 18 17 20 21 19 22 15 19 15 20 25 20 15 22 22 23 16 20 22 17 21 27 24 20 14 23 21 23 19 18
2024 11 11 11 12 10 14 15 12 9 9 13 14 12 12 14 11 13 11 13 14 12 10 15 13 13 12 11 14 12 11 9
2025 5 6 5 4 4 5 2 4 3 2 2 6 7 7 5 3 3 4 5 4 4 6 7 8 4 2 4 4 7 6 5
Player 116 120 100 113 111 110 123 107 95 83 99 131 127 109 115 117 108 99 120 118 117 118 142 133 104 92 118 123 134 105 96
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
+ View Standard Expected Home Runs By Park
+ View Complete Expected Home Runs Leaderboard

Year to Year Changes

Metric 2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-   2024 +/-   2025
Fastball Velocity 91.3 0.3 91.6 -0.1 91.5 0.6 92.1 -0.3 91.8 -0.5 91.3 0.2 91.5
Offspeed Velocity 86.0 1.5 87.5 -0.3 87.2 1.4 88.6 0.1 88.7 -0.3 88.4 -0.3 88.1
Breaking Velocity 80.6 0.6 81.2 0.1 81.3 0.9 82.2 1.0 83.2 1.0 84.2 -0.6 83.6
Exit Velocity 89.9 -1.4 88.5 0.5 89.0 -0.5 88.5 1.1 89.6 0.9 90.5 -0.1 90.4
Launch Angle 12.5 0.8 13.3 -0.4 12.9 1.1 14.0 -2.2 11.8 -0.8 11.0 2.7 13.7
Barrel % 9.5 1.6 11.1 -4.8 6.3 2.0 8.3 -0.5 7.8 2.9 10.7 0.6 11.3
Hard Hit % 40.0 0.0 40.0 -0.4 39.6 -3.1 36.5 5.3 41.8 -0.9 40.9 5.5 46.4
LA Sweet-Spot % 33.2 3.5 36.7 -3.6 33.1 -1.9 31.2 3.9 35.1 -1.6 33.5 -3.6 29.9
xBA .271 -0.026 .245 0.025 .270 -0.040 .230 0.014 .244 0.019 .263 0.006 .269
BA .260 -0.042 .218 0.048 .266 -0.040 .226 -0.004 .222 0.020 .242 -0.045 .197
xwOBA .344 -0.040 .304 0.020 .324 -0.028 .296 0.017 .313 0.027 .340 0.018 .358
wOBA .318 -0.043 .275 0.044 .319 -0.030 .289 0.005 .294 0.017 .311 -0.021 .290
xSLG .493 -0.057 .436 -0.005 .431 -0.048 .383 0.006 .389 0.081 .470 0.020 .490
SLG .447 -0.052 .395 0.038 .433 -0.062 .371 0.000 .371 0.055 .426 -0.049 .377
K% 20.3 2.9 23.2 -3.7 19.5 2.5 22.0 3.9 25.9 -4.9 21.0 -2.5 18.5
BB% 7.3 -3.3 4.0 2.1 6.1 1.5 7.6 1.8 9.4 -3.1 6.3 2.6 8.9
Swing % 47.2 -1.3 45.9 3.3 49.2 -0.7 48.5 0.6 49.1 -0.9 48.2 -1.5 46.7
Whiff% 22.4 1.1 23.5 -2.9 20.6 3.0 23.6 3.4 27.0 -5.7 21.3 -0.1 21.2
In Zone % 47.5 1.3 48.8 2.5 51.3 -2.0 49.3 -3.8 45.5 1.4 46.9 2.9 49.8
Out of Zone % 52.5 -1.3 51.2 -2.5 48.7 2.0 50.7 3.8 54.5 -1.4 53.1 -2.9 50.2
Out of Zone Swing % 27.6 0.5 28.1 -1.2 26.9 3.0 29.9 3.0 32.9 -2.4 30.5 -3.9 26.6
First Pitch Swing % 28.4 -2.8 25.6 7.3 32.9 -1.3 31.6 0.0 31.6 4.4 36.0 -3.4 32.6
First Pitch Strike % 58.6 0.6 59.2 3.0 62.2 0.2 62.4 -1.4 61.0 2.0 63.0 2.9 65.9
+ View Complete Year to Year Changes Leaderboard

Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2019 Shifts 748 .324 408 78 19.1 340 171 50.3
2020 Shifts 124 .275 70 16 22.9 54 31 57.4
2021 Shifts 664 .319 347 87 25.1 317 160 50.5
2022 Shifts 802 .289 432 80 18.5 370 187 50.5
2023 Shades 721 .294 360 8 2.2 361 242 67.0
2024 Shades 300 .311 140 5 3.6 160 93 58.1
2025 Shades 135 .290 53 3 5.7 82 67 81.7
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2019 903 18.5 6.5% 1.4% 475 25.7 0.0% 16.6%
2020 175 18.5 1.1% 1.7% 50 23.7 0.0% 8.0%
2021 738 17.7 11.1% 1.6% 324 24.7 0.0% 15.4%
2022 934 17.0 24.4% 2.2% 429 22.8 0.2% 8.6%
2023 818 15.1 47.6% 0.0% 354 19.9 0.8% 0.6%
2024 353 15.1 48.4% 0.0% 136 19.0 1.5% 0.7%
2025 120 14.9 52.5% 0.0% 69 19.4 0.0% 2.9%

+ View Complete Pitch Tempo Leaderboard

Pitch Distribution