Merrill Kelly
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 2" 202LBS | Age: 35
Draft: 2010 | Rd: 8, #251, Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona State
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 7 11 4.44 27 27 0 158 130 1.29
2022 13 8 3.37 33 33 0 200.1 177 1.14
2023 12 8 3.29 30 30 0 177.2 187 1.19
5 Seasons 48 43 3.80 127 127 0 750.2 681 1.22
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 27 7-11 4.44 158 130 1.29
2022 33 13-8 3.37 200.1 177 1.14
2023 30 12-8 3.29 177.2 187 1.19
5 Seasons 127 48-43 3.80 750.2 681 1.22
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution

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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 Sweet
Spot %		 XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 30 2962 558 53 9.5 6.8 89.9 112.7 12.5 33.2 .271 .493 .318 .345 .409 40.0 20.3 7.3 4.42 5.37
2020 31 473 90 10 11.1 8.0 88.5 115.0 13.3 36.7 .245 .437 .275 .304 .382 40.0 23.2 4.0 2.58 3.90
2021 32 2425 492 31 6.3 4.6 89.0 114.9 12.9 33.1 .271 .432 .319 .324 .379 39.6 19.5 6.1 4.44 4.48
2022 33 3071 564 47 8.3 5.8 88.5 111.7 14.0 31.2 .230 .383 .289 .296 .347 36.5 22.0 7.6 3.37 3.62
2023 34 2803 462 36 7.8 5.0 89.6 113.2 11.8 35.1 .244 .389 .294 .313 .379 41.8 25.9 9.4 3.29 4.13
Player 11734 2166 177 8.2 5.7 89.2 115.0 12.9 33.2 .253 .425 .303 .318 .378 39.4 22.0 7.5
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.3 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 6 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(30%) ,
Changeup
(23.1%) ,
Cutter
(18.1%) ,
Sinker
(12.2%) ,
Curveball
(11%) ,
Slider
(5.5%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 43.2 25.8 25.3 5.7 41.2 35.8 22.9 2.3 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.6 9.5 6.8
2020 45.6 18.9 23.3 12.2 46.7 31.1 22.2 4.4 28.9 25.6 21.1 6.7 11.1 8.0
2021 44.7 24.2 25.2 5.9 41.9 33.1 25.0 5.5 28.0 24.8 28.0 7.3 6.3 4.6
2022 43.8 28.4 21.6 6.2 41.1 36.9 22.0 3.4 33.5 28.0 21.3 4.8 8.3 5.8
2023 45.7 23.6 24.0 6.7 42.4 37.2 20.3 3.7 33.8 22.5 24.9 7.4 7.8 5.0
Player 44.3 25.3 24.0 6.4 41.8 35.6 22.6 3.7 31.9 25.2 24.4 6.2 8.2 5.7
MLB 44.6 23.5 24.9 7.0 37.0 37.6 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 4-Seamer AZ R 842 92.2 17.4 -0.8 -5 7.4 -0.6 -7
2023 Curveball AZ R 308 82.1 51.0 1.6 3 8.9 0.2 2
2023 Sinker AZ R 342 92.4 25.7 1.6 6 15.5 0.3 2
2023 Changeup AZ R 648 88.7 33.8 3.7 12 15.7 0.9 6
2023 Cutter AZ R 508 90.8 20.6 4.0 16 1.3 -2.9 -181
2023 Slider AZ R 155 85.4 34.3 -1.8 -5 1.6 -3.7 -70
2022 Changeup AZ R 654 88.6 32.3 2.6 9 16.6 2.0 14
2022 Cutter AZ R 513 90.8 20.3 3.9 16 1.5 -3.0 -201
2022 Slider AZ R 6 85.0 34.5 -1.9 -5 1.8 -3.6 -66
2022 Sinker AZ R 538 92.5 24.7 1.2 5 16.1 0.9 6
2022 Curveball AZ R 413 82.2 50.9 1.6 3 9.1 0.5 6
2022 4-Seamer AZ R 944 92.6 16.7 -0.6 -4 7.8 -0.3 -3
2021 Cutter AZ R 343 90.8 20.2 4.0 17 1.7 -3.2 -214
2021 4-Seamer AZ R 775 91.7 16.8 -0.4 -3 7.2 -0.5 -7
2021 Changeup AZ R 422 87.2 30.3 0.6 2 15.3 1.0 7
2021 Curveball AZ R 438 81.3 51.3 0.4 1 9.1 0.3 3
2021 Sinker AZ R 447 91.6 23.9 0.6 2 15.3 0.5 3
2020 Cutter AZ R 95 90.8 19.7 4.8 19 0.3 -2.1 -117
2020 Curveball AZ R 105 81.2 52.7 2.3 5 9.3 0.4 5
2020 Sinker AZ R 83 91.8 24.1 1.1 5 15.8 1.0 7
2020 Changeup AZ R 73 87.5 29.3 -0.5 -2 16.4 2.7 20
2020 4-Seamer AZ R 117 92.1 16.2 0.2 1 6.1 -1.6 -21
2019 Sinker AZ R 287 91.5 24.2 0.9 4 13.9 -0.8 -5
2019 Curveball AZ R 632 80.6 55.3 2.8 5 9.6 0.8 9
2019 4-Seamer AZ R 1,106 92.0 17.2 -0.5 -3 4.7 -2.9 -38
2019 Changeup AZ R 397 86.0 24.0 -5.9 -20 12.6 -1.2 -9
2019 Cutter AZ R 538 89.9 23.2 2.5 10 2.1 0.4 26
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 4-Seamer -0.1 -1 842 30.0 203 .224 .489 .348 25.9 27.6 22.9 .231 .424 .330 53.3
2023 Changeup 2.5 16 648 23.1 180 .180 .234 .218 32.0 28.3 22.0 .235 .331 .276 35.3
2023 Cutter 0.2 1 508 18.1 105 .220 .352 .311 24.4 23.8 21.9 .229 .367 .309 26.9
2023 Sinker 0.6 2 342 12.2 120 .261 .378 .310 16.3 20.0 25.0 .291 .442 .343 48.9
2023 Curveball -0.7 -2 308 11.0 65 .268 .411 .349 25.6 26.2 15.5 .275 .424 .355 51.3
2023 Slider -1.1 -2 155 5.5 48 .217 .391 .315 41.3 29.2 17.5 .211 .345 .257 21.9
2022 4-Seamer 0.9 8 945 30.8 244 .206 .364 .302 23.3 25.4 22.4 .187 .339 .283 40.1
2022 Changeup 0.2 1 654 21.3 190 .239 .361 .278 28.0 23.2 19.7 .216 .313 .251 31.2
2022 Sinker 0.2 1 538 17.5 155 .259 .385 .317 17.6 15.5 18.3 .293 .467 .357 38.7
2022 Cutter 0.8 4 513 16.7 124 .203 .398 .282 20.8 18.5 21.9 .226 .446 .305 32.6
2022 Curveball -0.7 -3 414 13.5 87 .232 .354 .288 27.9 26.4 18.4 .280 .424 .326 42.4
2022 Slider 2.1 0 6 0.2 2 .000 .000 .000 50.0 50.0 33.3 .010 .018 .013 0.0
2021 4-Seamer -0.8 -6 775 32.0 191 .311 .598 .411 18.9 17.3 18.6 .257 .516 .361 43.5
2021 Sinker -0.7 -3 447 18.4 126 .291 .410 .327 12.9 15.1 18.1 .310 .443 .344 48.0
2021 Curveball 0.1 0 438 18.1 127 .213 .352 .274 25.7 26.8 23.8 .244 .391 .289 42.0
2021 Changeup 0.3 1 422 17.4 114 .257 .367 .291 27.4 16.7 15.1 .291 .421 .320 36.3
2021 Cutter 1.1 4 343 14.1 106 .240 .360 .284 16.1 23.6 25.0 .257 .342 .285 22.7
2020 4-Seamer -0.2 0 117 24.7 22 .250 .500 .350 22.9 18.2 13.8 .190 .348 .266 43.8
2020 Curveball 1.2 1 105 22.2 23 .227 .227 .265 28.2 39.1 27.3 .251 .379 .287 53.8
2020 Cutter 2.6 2 95 20.1 24 .174 .478 .298 6.5 8.3 9.5 .313 .608 .399 33.3
2020 Sinker 5.7 5 83 17.5 31 .167 .200 .208 22.5 22.6 28.0 .235 .343 .264 43.5
2020 Changeup -3.3 -2 73 15.4 24 .292 .625 .361 38.6 29.2 36.8 .234 .527 .317 29.4
2019 4-Seamer 1.0 11 1,106 37.3 264 .241 .406 .324 20.2 22.0 19.3 .252 .492 .355 41.6
2019 Curveball 0.3 2 632 21.3 165 .215 .417 .273 30.1 34.5 23.8 .222 .383 .261 47.2
2019 Cutter -0.2 -1 538 18.2 163 .277 .458 .336 19.1 12.3 16.3 .297 .504 .354 39.3
2019 Changeup -0.6 -2 397 13.4 103 .316 .537 .399 24.1 13.6 13.5 .314 .608 .406 29.6
2019 Sinker -1.5 -4 287 9.7 78 .306 .500 .384 16.2 11.5 16.7 .328 .567 .400 38.1
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2023 Changeup 612 88.7 83 16.5 2:00 3:00 -60
2023 Curveball 307 82.1 67 15.8 7:45 7:15 30
2023 Cutter 506 90.8 63 11.7 1:00 12:15 45
2023 4-Seam Fastball 831 92.2 78 16.0 1:15 1:00 15
2023 Sinker 330 92.4 79 17.2 1:30 2:30 -60
2023 Slider 155 85.4 21 3.1 10:45 10:30 15
2022 Changeup 634 88.6 86 17.5 2:00 2:45 -45
2022 Curveball 406 82.2 67 15.9 7:45 7:15 30
2022 Cutter 507 90.8 63 12.1 1:00 12:15 45
2022 4-Seam Fastball 937 92.6 80 16.8 1:15 1:00 15
2022 Sinker 529 92.5 80 18.1 1:15 2:15 -60
2021 Changeup 416 87.2 79 16.8 1:45 2:30 -45
2021 Curveball 437 81.3 67 15.7 7:45 7:15 30
2021 Cutter 343 90.8 67 12.2 1:00 12:15 45
2021 4-Seam Fastball 775 91.7 80 16.8 1:15 1:00 15
2021 Sinker 434 91.6 77 17.9 1:15 2:15 -60
2020 Changeup 73 87.5 82 18.2 1:45 2:30 -45
2020 Curveball 104 81.2 70 16.7 7:45 7:15 30
2020 Cutter 95 90.8 61 12.7 12:45 12:00 45
2020 4-Seam Fastball 116 92.1 79 16.7 1:00 12:45 15
2020 Sinker 76 91.8 76 18.5 1:00 2:15 -75
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 773 2,960 5 30 -23 -8 5
2020 124 473 1 9 -4 0 6
2021 664 2,425 6 12 -13 -9 -4
2022 802 3,070 1 38 -18 -9 12
2023 812 3,160 12 36 -18 -8 22
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 2,962 47.5 68.8 82.9 27.6 64.1 44.5 58.6 47.2 22.3 7.5 74.8
2020 473 48.8 64.5 83.2 28.1 61.8 44.8 59.2 45.9 23.5 6.1 79.3
2021 2,425 51.3 70.3 86.0 26.9 57.9 44.6 62.2 49.2 20.3 7.8 80.3
2022 3,071 49.3 67.7 81.9 29.9 63.7 45.4 62.4 48.5 23.6 6.9 81.1
2023 2,803 45.5 68.3 81.3 32.9 57.1 46.1 61.0 49.1 27.0 6.4 79.9
Player 11,734 48.3 68.6 83.0 29.4 60.8 45.2 61.0 48.3 23.4 7.1 78.9
MLB 48.6 67.0 82.0 28.5 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA 		xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit% 		K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate 		FB
Velo 		FB
Spin 		CB
Spin 		Extension
2019 16 16 10 9 35 1 13 17 20 27 63 25 32 29 81 72 60
2020 58 44 32 28 80 23 11 47 30 50 95 28 53 29 74 64 55
2021 34 15 30 48 41 19 72 46 41 21 81 11 38 22 71 63 49
2022 60 59 47 37 68 2 31 50 62 44 52 30 54 28 69 59 34
2023 51 50 60 67 46 14 51 34 30 69 34 58 88 22 69 63 29
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.5 29 31.0 -2 14 22 16 55.2
2020 21.7 5 5.0 0 2 4 2 40.0
2021 23.8 21 19.5 2 13 11 10 47.6
2022 23.2 21 21.3 0 4 16 10 47.6
2023 23.4 24 21.1 3 9 20 7 29.2
Player 23.1 100 97.9 2 42 73 45 45.0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 29 40 25 29 29 30 35 30 25 21 27 35 38 33 29 30 29 27 33 31 34 36 35 38 29 27 28 36 40 28 24
2020 5 4 6 6 4 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 6 4 4
2021 21 22 19 22 19 16 20 23 15 15 16 24 22 17 17 21 18 19 22 19 21 19 26 21 18 17 23 19 22 16 17
2022 21 20 17 22 24 20 25 17 20 17 18 22 23 22 24 25 19 19 22 23 24 21 26 23 17 17 24 23 24 21 19
2023 24 19 18 21 22 23 24 16 20 16 20 26 22 16 24 23 24 17 21 23 20 20 28 25 21 15 24 22 24 20 19
Player 100 105 85 100 98 95 110 92 84 73 85 112 110 92 98 105 94 87 104 101 105 101 121 113 89 80 104 106 116 89 83
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2019 2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 91.3 91.6 0.3 ↑ 91.5 -0.1 ↓ 92.1 0.6 ↑ 91.8 -0.3 ↓
Offspeed Velocity 86.0 87.5 1.5 ↑ 87.2 -0.3 ↓ 88.6 1.4 ↑ 88.7 0.1 ↑
Breaking Velocity 80.6 81.2 0.6 ↑ 81.3 0.1 ↑ 82.2 0.9 ↑ 83.2 1.0 ↑
Exit Velocity 89.9 88.5 -1.4 ↓ 89.0 0.5 ↑ 88.5 -0.5 ↓ 89.6 1.1 ↑
Launch Angle 12.5 13.3 0.8 ↑ 12.9 -0.4 ↓ 14.0 1.1 ↑ 11.8 -2.2 ↓
Barrel % 9.5 11.1 1.6 ↑ 6.3 -4.8 ↓ 8.3 2.0 ↑ 7.8 -0.5 ↓
Hard Hit % 40.0 40.0 0.0 39.6 -0.4 ↓ 36.5 -3.1 ↓ 41.8 5.3 ↑
Sweet Spot % 33.2 36.7 3.5 ↑ 33.1 -3.6 ↓ 31.2 -1.9 ↓ 35.1 3.9 ↑
xBA .271 .245 -0.026 ↓ .271 0.026 ↑ .230 -0.041 ↓ .244 0.014 ↑
BA .260 .218 -0.042 ↓ .266 0.048 ↑ .226 -0.040 ↓ .222 -0.004 ↓
xwOBA .345 .304 -0.041 ↓ .324 0.020 ↑ .296 -0.028 ↓ .313 0.017 ↑
wOBA .318 .275 -0.043 ↓ .319 0.044 ↑ .289 -0.030 ↓ .294 0.005 ↑
xSLG .493 .437 -0.056 ↓ .432 -0.005 ↓ .383 -0.049 ↓ .389 0.006 ↑
SLG .447 .395 -0.052 ↓ .433 0.038 ↑ .371 -0.062 ↓ .371 0.000
K% 20.3 23.2 2.9 ↑ 19.5 -3.7 ↓ 22.0 2.5 ↑ 25.9 3.9 ↑
BB% 7.3 4.0 -3.3 ↓ 6.1 2.1 ↑ 7.6 1.5 ↑ 9.4 1.8 ↑
Swing % 47.2 45.9 -1.3 ↓ 49.2 3.3 ↑ 48.5 -0.7 ↓ 49.1 0.6 ↑
Whiff% 22.3 23.5 1.2 ↑ 20.3 -3.2 ↓ 23.6 3.3 ↑ 27.0 3.4 ↑
In Zone % 47.5 48.8 1.3 ↑ 51.3 2.5 ↑ 49.3 -2.0 ↓ 45.5 -3.8 ↓
Out of Zone % 52.5 51.2 -1.3 ↓ 48.7 -2.5 ↓ 50.7 2.0 ↑ 54.5 3.8 ↑
Out of Zone Swing % 27.6 28.1 0.5 ↑ 26.9 -1.2 ↓ 29.9 3.0 ↑ 32.9 3.0 ↑
First Pitch Swing % 28.4 25.6 -2.8 ↓ 32.9 7.3 ↑ 31.6 -1.3 ↓ 31.6 0.0
First Pitch Strike % 58.6 59.2 0.6 ↑ 62.2 3.0 ↑ 62.4 0.2 ↑ 61.0 -1.4 ↓
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2019 Shifts 748 .324 408 84 20.6 340 198 58.2
2020 Shifts 124 .275 70 23 32.9 54 37 68.5
2021 Shifts 664 .319 347 90 25.9 317 183 57.7
2022 Shifts 802 .289 432 82 19.0 370 231 62.4
2023 Shades 721 .294 360 8 2.2 361 242 67.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2019 903 18.5 6.5% 1.4% 475 25.7 0.0% 16.6%
2020 175 18.5 1.1% 1.7% 50 23.7 0.0% 8.0%
2021 738 17.7 11.1% 1.6% 324 24.7 0.0% 15.4%
2022 934 17.0 24.4% 2.2% 429 22.8 0.2% 8.6%
2023 818 15.1 47.6% 0.0% 354 19.9 0.8% 0.6%
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Pitch Distribution

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