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Merrill Kelly
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 202LBS | Age: 33

Draft: 2010 | Rd: 8, #251, Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona State
Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 7 11 4.44 27 27 0 158.0 130 1.29
3 Seasons 23 27 4.27 64 64 0 372.2 317 1.28
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 27 7-11 4.44 158.0 130 1.29
3 Seasons 64 23-27 4.27 372.2 317 1.28

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 31 2962 558 53 9.5 89.9 112.7 12.4 33.2 .271 .493 .318 .344 .408 40 20.3 7.3 4.42 5.45
2020 32 473 90 10 11.1 88.5 115 13.3 36.7 .241 .430 .275 .300 .374 40 23.2 4 2.58 3.82
2021 33 2425 492 31 6.3 89 114.9 12.9 33.1 .271 .432 .319 .324 .379 39.6 19.5 6.1 4.44 4.51
5860 1140 94 8.2 89.4 115 12.7 33.4 .268 .461 .315 .332 .393 39.8 20.2 6.6
6.6 88.3 122.2 12 32.9 .243 .403 .317 .313 .363 35.4 22 8.4

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(32.3%) ,
Sinker
(18.4%) ,
Curveball
(18.1%) ,
Changeup
(17.5%) ,
Cutter
(13.7%) ,


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Pitch Tracking

Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway%
2021 4-Seam Fastball 783 404 379 32.3 91.7 194 167 53 30 10 2 11 33 141 .317 .263 .599 .518 .410 .363 88.8 22 2358 6.3 18.6 18.6
2021 Sinker 447 345 102 18.4 91.6 126 117 34 24 8 0 2 19 100 .291 .310 .410 .442 .322 .344 91.5 6 2242 6.3 12.9 18.1
2021 Curveball 438 232 206 18.1 81.3 127 122 26 18 3 1 4 34 88 .213 .245 .352 .390 .257 .288 88.9 4 2564 6.2 25.7 23.8
2021 Changeup 424 152 272 17.5 87.2 114 109 28 21 4 1 2 19 91 .257 .292 .367 .422 .279 .321 87.4 4 1971 6.3 27.4 15.0
2021 Cutter 333 152 181 13.7 90.9 103 97 22 14 6 0 2 25 72 .227 .247 .351 .333 .271 .277 83.2 21 2320 6.3 16.5 25.3
2020 4-Seam Fastball 117 69 48 24.7 92.1 22 20 5 2 2 0 1 4 16 .250 .192 .500 .349 .348 .268 89.6 30 2436 6.4 22.9 13.8
2020 Curveball 105 66 39 22.2 81.2 23 22 5 5 0 0 0 9 13 .227 .249 .227 .378 .222 .285 93.2 9 2614 6.4 28.2 27.3
2020 Cutter 95 49 46 20.1 90.8 24 23 4 1 1 0 2 2 21 .174 .299 .478 .581 .282 .382 86.5 22 2430 6.4 6.5 9.5
2020 Sinker 83 70 13 17.5 91.8 31 30 5 4 1 0 0 7 23 .167 .238 .200 .346 .176 .266 89.4 9 2257 6.4 22.5 28.0
2020 Changeup 73 18 55 15.4 87.5 24 24 7 3 2 0 2 7 17 .292 .225 .625 .506 .378 .304 84.9 -5 1999 6.4 38.6 36.8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel %
2019 43.2 25.8 25.3 5.7 41.4 35.8 22.8 2.5 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.6 9.5
2020 45.6 10 32.2 12.2 46.7 31.1 22.2 4.4 28.9 25.6 21.1 6.7 11.1
2021 44.7 24.2 25.2 5.9 41.9 33.1 25 5.5 28 24.8 28 7.3 6.3
44 23.9 25.8 6.3 42 34.3 23.7 3.9 30.3 24.9 25.7 6.4 8.2
45.1 22.5 25.4 7.1 36.6 37.8 25.5 3.7 33.2 24.4 24.4 5.7 6.6

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2021 Changeup ARI R 424 87.2 30.3 0.6 2 15.2 1 7
2021 Sinker ARI R 445 91.6 23.9 0.7 3 15.3 0.6 4
2021 Curveball ARI R 438 81.3 51.3 0.8 2 9.1 -0.1 -1
2021 4-Seamer ARI R 783 91.7 16.9 -0.4 -3 7.2 -0.5 -7
2021 Cutter ARI R 333 90.9 20.2 4 16 1.6 -3.1 -208
2020 4-Seamer ARI R 117 92.1 16.2 0.2 1 6.1 -1.5 -20
2020 Curveball ARI R 105 81.2 52.7 2.5 5 9.3 0.2 3
2020 Cutter ARI R 95 90.8 19.7 4.9 20 0.3 -2.2 -117
2020 Changeup ARI R 73 87.5 29.3 -0.5 -2 16.4 2.7 20
2020 Sinker ARI R 83 91.8 24.1 1.2 5 15.8 1.1 7
2019 4-Seamer ARI R 1106 92 17.2 -0.5 -3 4.7 -2.8 -38
2019 Curveball ARI R 632 80.6 55.3 3 6 9.6 0.6 7
2019 Cutter ARI R 539 89.9 23.2 2.5 10 2.1 0.4 21
2019 Changeup ARI R 398 86 23.9 -6 -20 12.6 -1.2 -8
2019 Sinker ARI R 287 91.5 24.2 0.9 4 13.9 -0.7 -5
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2021 Cutter -1.5 -5 333 13.7 103 .227 .351 .275 16.5 24.3 25.3 .247 .333 .277 22.2
2021 Changeup -0.4 -2 424 17.5 114 .257 .367 .283 27.4 16.7 15 .292 .422 .321 36.3
2021 Sinker 0.7 3 447 18.4 126 .291 .41 .327 12.9 15.1 18.1 .31 .442 .344 48
2021 Curveball -0.2 -1 438 18.1 127 .213 .352 .274 25.7 26.8 23.8 .245 .39 .288 42
2021 4-Seamer 1 8 783 32.3 194 .317 .599 .414 18.6 17 18.6 .263 .518 .364 43.3
2020 4-Seamer 0.2 0 117 24.7 22 .25 .5 .35 22.9 18.2 13.8 .192 .349 .267 43.8
2020 Curveball -1.2 -1 105 22.2 23 .227 .227 .265 28.2 39.1 27.3 .249 .378 .285 53.8
2020 Cutter -2.6 -2 95 20.1 24 .174 .478 .285 6.5 8.3 9.5 .299 .581 .382 33.3
2020 Changeup 3.4 2 73 15.4 24 .292 .625 .383 38.6 29.2 36.8 .225 .506 .304 29.4
2020 Sinker -5.6 -5 83 17.5 31 .167 .2 .208 22.5 22.6 28 .238 .346 .266 43.5
2019 Sinker 1.6 5 287 9.7 78 .306 .5 .384 16.2 11.5 16.7 .329 .567 .401 38.1
2019 Changeup 0.6 2 398 13.4 103 .316 .537 .399 24.1 13.6 13.5 .314 .608 .406 29.6
2019 Cutter 0.3 1 539 18.2 163 .277 .458 .334 19.1 12.3 16.3 .299 .511 .357 39.3
2019 Curveball -0.3 -2 632 21.3 165 .215 .417 .272 30.1 34.5 23.8 .221 .381 .26 47.2
2019 4-Seamer -0.9 -10 1106 37.3 264 .241 .406 .325 20.2 22 19.3 .25 .487 .353 41.6
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 73 87.5 82 18.2 1:45 2:30 -45
2020 Curveball 104 81.2 70 16.7 7:45 7:15 30
2020 Cutter 95 90.8 61 12.7 12:45 12:00 45
2020 4-Seam Fastball 116 92.1 79 16.7 1:00 12:45 15
2020 Sinker 76 91.8 76 18.5 1:00 2:15 -75
2021 Changeup 418 87.3 79 16.8 1:45 2:30 -45
2021 Curveball 437 81.3 67 15.7 7:45 7:15 30
2021 Cutter 333 90.9 67 12.2 1:00 12:15 45
2021 4-Seam Fastball 783 91.7 80 16.8 1:15 1:00 15
2021 Sinker 434 91.6 77 17.9 1:15 2:15 -60
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 773 2960 -5 -29 23 7 -3
2020 124 473 -1 -8 4 0 -6
2021 664 2425 -5 -13 13 9 4
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 2962 47.6 68.9 82.9 27.4 63.8 44.5 58.6 47.2 22.3 7.5 74.8
2020 473 49 64.7 82.7 27.8 62.7 44.8 59.2 45.9 23.5 6.1 79.3
2021 2425 51.3 70.3 85.9 26.8 58 44.7 62.1 49.2 20.3 7.8 80.4
5860 49.2 69.2 84.2 27.2 61.5 44.6 60.1 47.9 21.5 7.5 77.5
48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.5 42.6 60.6 47 24.6 7.2 76

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2019 16 14 10 8 34 1 12 17 21 27 63 25 16 27 81 76
2020 61 47 36 29 82 23 11 47 30 50 95 28 61 31 73 65
2021 34 15 28 47 40 19 72 46 41 21 81 11 34 24 67 66
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.5 29 33 -4 17 21 18 62.1
2020 21.7 5 6.5 -2 3 5 0 0
2021 23.8 21 28.5 -8 15 13 2 9.5

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 29 34 40 32 38 29 34 40 31 33 38 31 22 31 32 39 26 40 32 35 21 29 25 35 34 38 37 29 38 29 38
2020 5 7 8 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 6 5 4 5 7 5 8 5 6 5 5 5 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 7
2021 21 28 30 24 30 23 24 29 23 25 32 30 17 23 22 27 19 29 26 26 14 23 26 27 28 30 24 21 30 23 33
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights and distances, but does not attempt to adjust for environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 91.3 91.6 0.3 91.5 -0.1
Offspeed Velocity 86 87.5 1.5 87.2 -0.3
Breaking Velocity 80.6 81.2 0.6 81.3 0.1
Exit Velocity 89.9 88.5 -1.4 89 0.5
Launch Angle 12.4 13.3 0.9 12.9 -0.4
Barrel % 9.5 11.1 1.6 6.3 -4.8
Hard Hit % 40 40 0 39.6 -0.4
Sweet Spot % 33.2 36.7 3.5 33.1 -3.6
xBA .271 .241 -0.03 .271 0.03
BA .26 .218 -0.042 .266 0.048
xwOBA .344 .3 -0.044 .324 0.024
wOBA .318 .275 -0.043 .319 0.044
xSLG .493 .43 -0.063 .432 0.002
SLG .447 .395 -0.052 .433 0.038
K% 20.3 23.2 2.9 19.5 -3.7
BB% 7.3 4 -3.3 6.1 2.1
Swing % 47.2 45.9 -1.3 49.2 3.3
Whiff% 22.3 23.5 1.2 20.3 -3.2
In Zone % 47.6 49 1.4 51.3 2.3
Out of Zone % 52.4 51 -1.4 48.7 -2.3
Out of Zone Swing % 27.4 27.8 0.4 26.8 -1
First Pitch Swing % 28.3 25.6 -2.7 32.8 7.2
First Pitch Strike % 58.6 59.2 0.6 62.1 2.9
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2019 748 .324 408 79 19.4 340 171 50.3
2020 124 .275 70 16 22.9 54 31 57.4
2021 664 .319 347 87 25.1 317 160 50.5

Pitch Distribution