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Lance McCullers Jr.
P | B/T: L/R | 6' 1" 202LBS | Age: 27

Draft: 2012 | Rd: CA, #41, Houston Astros | Jesuit HS (FL)
Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 4 1 2.90 11 11 0 62.0 66 1.16
6 Seasons 36 26 3.61 105 102 0 570.2 631 1.25
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 11 4-1 2.90 62.0 66 1.16
6 Seasons 105 36-26 3.61 570.2 631 1.25

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 22 2109 343 23 6.7 88.5 111.6 9.5 32.1 .230 .373 .289 .298 .358 32.2 24.8 8.3 3.22 3.82
2016 23 1342 201 11 5.5 88.5 111.5 2.7 29.4 .212 .324 .325 .287 .350 35.5 30.1 12.8 3.22 3.55
2017 24 2014 329 14 4.3 87.4 114.9 1 30.4 .228 .342 .305 .287 .339 32.5 25.8 7.8 4.25 3.57
2018 25 2108 328 27 8.2 89.2 112.7 5.4 32 .220 .361 .289 .298 .359 35.1 26.9 9.5 3.86 3.78
2020 27 884 146 15 10.3 89.3 111.3 3.8 30.8 .243 .408 .308 .327 .388 34.9 24.7 8.8 3.93 4.61
2021 28 1059 153 11 7.2 92.2 117.3 5.6 26.1 .216 .344 .272 .305 .343 47.1 25.8 12.9 2.90 3.75
9516 1500 101 6.7 88.9 117.3 4.9 30.6 .225 .357 .298 .298 .354 35.1 26.4 9.6
6.5 88.3 122.2 11.9 32.8 .243 .403 .317 .312 .363 35.4 22 8.4

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

McCullers relies on 5 pitches.
Sinker
(35%) ,
Slider
(22.7%) ,
Curveball
(21.4%) ,
Changeup
(18.4%) ,
Cutter
(2.5%) ,


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Pitch Tracking

Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway%
2021 Sinker 371 281 90 35.0 93.4 91 76 16 12 0 0 4 15 61 .211 .265 .368 .419 .320 .359 94.9 -1 2131 6.1 20.0 20.5
2021 Slider 240 232 8 22.7 85.9 57 45 6 5 1 0 0 16 29 .133 .168 .156 .296 .245 .301 90.3 13 2749 6.1 34.7 20.5
2021 Curveball 227 8 219 21.4 84.4 61 53 7 4 2 0 1 18 35 .132 .210 .226 .325 .223 .291 90.9 8 2878 6.0 34.3 22.8
2021 Changeup 195 72 123 18.4 85.5 44 42 9 5 3 0 1 16 26 .214 .189 .357 .281 .265 .224 89.8 7 1773 5.8 37.2 28.1
2021 Cutter 26 2 24 2.5 89.6 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 .333 .190 .667 .351 .417 .223 92.9 49 2569 6.0 60.0 14.3
2020 Sinker 369 242 127 41.7 93.8 101 85 19 9 8 0 2 14 72 .224 .268 .388 .412 .323 .353 87.2 1 2072 6.1 14.6 17.9
2020 Curveball 332 110 222 37.6 83.4 83 76 17 7 5 2 3 28 48 .224 .235 .461 .477 .318 .334 89.8 6 2787 6.0 42.1 28.0
2020 Changeup 163 70 93 18.4 86.3 34 30 6 3 3 0 0 9 22 .200 .213 .300 .270 .250 .271 88.4 5 1766 5.8 35.2 23.1
2020 Cutter 16 0 16 1.8 91.6 6 6 1 0 1 0 0 5 1 .167 .122 .333 .150 .206 .117 91.5 17 2349 6.1 50.0 55.6
2020 4-Seam Fastball 4 1 3 0.5 93.0 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 3 .333 .279 .667 .465 .413 .306 95.5 30 2056 6.1 0.0 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel %
2015 48.4 19.5 26.2 5.8 32.7 42 25.4 1.2 39.4 22.7 24.8 4.1 6.7
2016 58.7 15.4 23.4 2.5 26.9 41.8 31.3 2.5 49.3 12.4 23.4 6 5.5
2017 62.3 11.9 23.4 2.4 38 42.2 19.8 4.6 47.7 12.5 24.6 4.3 4.3
2018 55.5 17.4 24.4 2.7 41.8 38.7 19.5 2.4 45.1 18.6 19.5 5.5 8.2
2020 60.3 11 24.7 4.1 44.5 34.9 20.5 2.1 47.9 12.3 22.6 4.8 10.3
2021 55.6 20.3 19.6 4.6 29.4 43.8 26.8 0.7 43.8 21.6 20.9 5.9 7.2
56.3 16.1 24 3.7 35.9 40.8 23.3 2.4 45.1 17.1 22.8 4.9 6.7
45.2 22.2 25.5 7.1 36.6 37.9 25.5 3.6 33.4 24.3 24.5 5.6 6.5

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2021 Curveball HOU R 226 84.4 48.1 2.1 4 10.6 0.9 9
2021 Sinker HOU R 370 93.4 25.1 2.4 10 13.8 -1.5 -10
2021 Slider HOU R 239 85.8 31.2 -4.3 -12 13.5 7.2 116
2021 Changeup HOU R 195 85.5 37.4 5.1 16 17.7 2.6 17
2021 Cutter HOU R 26 89.6 28.2 -2.1 -8 3.7 1.9 106
2020 Curveball HOU R 332 83.4 50.2 3.3 7 11.7 2.4 26
2020 4-Seamer HOU R 4 93 19.5 -3.4 -21 9.1 1.1 14
2020 Changeup HOU R 163 86.3 35.2 4 13 16.6 2.4 17
2020 Sinker HOU R 369 93.8 23.9 2 9 14.8 -0.1 -1
2020 Cutter HOU R 16 91.6 23.5 -0.2 -1 0.9 -2.3 -159
2018 Curveball HOU R 982 85.8 45.6 0.6 1 7.4 -1 -12
2018 Changeup HOU R 339 87.3 34.4 2.9 9 17.4 3.1 22
2018 4-Seamer HOU R 18 93.8 17.1 -0.8 -5 5.6 -2.7 -33
2018 Sinker HOU R 767 94.2 22.5 0.5 2 15.6 0.5 3
2017 4-Seamer HOU R 491 94.2 20.4 -5.7 -38 13.4 4.6 52
2017 Sinker HOU R 326 94.1 23.9 2.7 13 15 -0.3 -2
2017 Changeup HOU R 230 88.7 32.1 4 14 17.3 2.9 20
2017 Curveball HOU R 952 85.6 48.5 4.8 11 7.2 -1 -12
2016 Changeup HOU R 102 89.3 32.5 4.5 16 12.7 -1.7 -12
2016 Curveball HOU R 661 85.7 48.7 6.2 14 11.3 3 37
2016 4-Seamer HOU R 564 94.4 20.2 -5.5 -37 5.6 -4 -41
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2021 Cutter 3.6 1 26 2.5 3 .333 .667 .417 60 33.3 14.3 .19 .351 .223 50
2021 Changeup 1.2 2 195 18.4 44 .214 .357 .285 37.2 36.4 28.1 .189 .281 .223 34.6
2021 Slider -1.5 -4 240 22.7 57 .133 .156 .264 34.7 28.1 20.5 .168 .296 .303 37.9
2021 Curveball -2.1 -5 227 21.4 61 .132 .226 .236 34.3 29.5 22.8 .21 .325 .303 45.7
2021 Sinker -1.2 -4 371 35 91 .211 .368 .332 20 16.5 20.5 .265 .419 .36 57.4
2020 4-Seamer 9.9 0 4 0.5 3 .333 .667 .417 0 0 0 .279 .465 .306 66.7
2020 Cutter -0.6 0 16 1.8 6 .167 .333 .208 50 83.3 55.6 .122 .15 .117 0
2020 Changeup -0.6 -1 163 18.4 34 .2 .3 .251 35.2 26.5 23.1 .213 .27 .271 36.4
2020 Curveball 0.8 3 332 37.6 83 .224 .461 .332 42.1 33.7 28 .235 .477 .333 33.3
2020 Sinker -0.2 -1 369 41.7 101 .224 .388 .326 14.6 13.9 17.9 .268 .412 .353 34.7
2018 4-Seamer 5.1 1 18 0.9 3 .5 1 .65 0 0 0 .39 .63 .52 50
2018 Changeup -1.4 -5 339 16.1 73 .136 .182 .183 41.5 28.8 26.9 .182 .274 .236 32.6
2018 Sinker 0.4 3 767 36.4 173 .264 .429 .366 16.6 13.9 17.6 .254 .427 .368 37.3
2018 Curveball -0.4 -4 982 46.6 278 .206 .354 .288 36.7 34.9 24.7 .209 .344 .273 34
2017 Changeup 3.3 8 230 11.4 48 .4 .556 .452 30.8 14.6 13 .278 .326 .289 21.1
2017 Sinker 1.6 5 326 16.2 77 .357 .471 .404 11 9.1 14 .298 .397 .335 39.7
2017 4-Seamer 0.5 3 491 24.4 86 .243 .429 .369 15 11.6 13.7 .274 .473 .381 29.5
2017 Curveball -1.8 -17 952 47.3 296 .201 .305 .269 36.5 36.1 28.4 .193 .3 .25 33.5
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 160 86.3 89 17.7 2:15 3:00 -45
2020 Curveball 329 83.4 72 18.1 7:30 7:30 0
2020 Cutter 16 91.6 49 8.4 12:30 12:00 30
2020 Sinker 337 93.9 79 16.8 1:15 2:15 -60
2021 Changeup 194 85.5 92 18.8 2:30 3:15 -45
2021 Curveball 225 84.3 65 16.4 7:45 7:30 15
2021 Cutter 26 89.6 28 7.1 10:45 10:45 0
2021 Sinker 368 93.4 74 15.5 1:30 2:15 -45
2021 Slider 235 85.8 43 15.3 8:30 9:45 -75
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2015 542 2203 -14 -23 14 9 -14
2016 350 1330 0 -13 1 3 -9
2017 589 2320 -9 -17 8 11 -6
2018 547 2197 -11 -17 11 11 -5
2020 292 1134 5 -11 5 7 6
2021 256 1059 -12 -16 10 8 -9
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 2109 48.5 61.8 86.6 26.7 50.7 39 57.1 43.5 24.5 8.1 71
2016 1342 46.8 59.3 83.8 30.2 43 42.7 56.3 43.8 31.3 7.2 72.9
2017 2014 45.4 63.7 86.5 30.5 46.2 41.8 55.7 45.6 28 6.5 63.8
2018 2108 47.2 64.8 78.6 28.4 45.6 42.4 59.8 45.5 31.3 8 67.5
2020 884 47.4 56.6 83.1 26.2 44.3 45 58.1 40.6 29.5 5.7 72
2021 1059 45.2 59.9 82.2 24.8 43.8 40.6 55.1 40.7 30.6 6.8 79.2
9516 46.8 61.8 83.6 28.1 46.1 41.6 57.1 43.9 28.8 7.2 70
48.4 66.7 82.1 28.4 58.7 42.6 60.6 46.9 24.5 7.2 75.8

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2015 54 60 52 44 52 24 15 34 60 77 33 64 54 84 85 93
2016 73 84 88 84 46 65 61 51 45 92 2 93 73 75 77 97
2017 76 72 84 85 65 50 80 43 56 74 59 77 76 72 67 95
2018 58 71 66 57 53 24 20 24 51 75 29 84 58 73 56 90
2020 37 45 47 45 38 5 14 31 61 56 47 70 37 60 11 81
2021 58 73 78 77 35 35 58 4 8 61 14 73 58 48 26 89
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2020 22.3 12 12.2 0 2 16 3 25
2021 23.9 6 3.7 2 2 3 2 33.3

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2020 12 16 11 14 19 9 11 17 9 11 10 16 6 7 10 12 6 17 17 16 5 11 14 10 16 14 11 12 12 14 14
2021 6 4 6 2 5 3 3 4 5 3 6 3 2 5 4 5 2 3 4 5 2 3 4 3 2 5 4 2 5 2 5
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights and distances, but does not attempt to adjust for environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 95.1 94.4 -0.7 94.2 -0.2 0 93.7 93.2 -0.5
Offspeed Velocity 89.5 89.3 -0.2 88.7 -0.6 -1.4 86.3 85.5 -0.8
Breaking Velocity 84.7 85.7 1 85.6 -0.1 0.2 83.4 85.1 1.7
Exit Velocity 88.5 88.5 0 87.4 -1.1 1.8 89.3 92.2 2.9
Launch Angle 9.5 2.7 -6.8 1 -1.7 4.4 3.8 5.6 1.8
Barrel % 6.7 5.5 -1.2 4.3 -1.2 3.9 10.3 7.2 -3.1
Hard Hit % 32.2 35.5 3.3 32.5 -3 2.6 34.9 47.1 12.2
Sweet Spot % 32.1 29.4 -2.7 30.4 1 1.6 30.8 26.1 -4.7
xBA .23 .212 -0.018 .228 0.016 -0.008 .243 .216 -0.027
BA .226 .261 0.035 .249 -0.012 -0.034 .22 .178 -0.042
xwOBA .298 .287 -0.011 .287 0 0.011 .327 .305 -0.022
wOBA .289 .325 0.036 .305 -0.02 -0.016 .308 .272 -0.036
xSLG .373 .324 -0.049 .342 0.018 0.019 .408 .344 -0.064
SLG .362 .381 0.019 .372 -0.009 -0.017 .405 .292 -0.113
K% 24.8 30.1 5.3 25.8 -4.3 1.1 24.7 25.8 1.1
BB% 8.3 12.8 4.5 7.8 -5 1.7 8.8 12.9 4.1
Swing % 43.5 43.8 0.3 45.6 1.8 -0.1 40.6 40.7 0.1
Whiff% 24.5 31.3 6.8 28 -3.3 3.3 29.5 30.6 1.1
In Zone % 48.5 46.8 -1.7 45.4 -1.4 1.8 47.4 45.2 -2.2
Out of Zone % 51.5 53.2 1.7 54.6 1.4 -1.8 52.6 54.8 2.2
Out of Zone Swing % 26.7 30.2 3.5 30.5 0.3 -2.1 26.2 24.8 -1.4
First Pitch Swing % 24.4 26.7 2.3 27 0.3 0.7 22.5 25 2.5
First Pitch Strike % 57.1 56.3 -0.8 55.7 -0.6 4.1 58.1 55.1 -3
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2016 336 .330 177 24 13.6 159 94 59.1
2017 509 .306 292 62 21.2 217 102 47.0
2018 527 .289 272 87 32.0 255 139 54.5
2020 226 .307 109 18 16.5 117 74 63.2
2021 256 .272 149 24 16.1 107 82 76.6

Pitch Distribution