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Lance McCullers Jr.
P | B/T: L/R | 6' 1" 202LBS | Age: 28

Draft: 2012 | Rd: C-A, #41, Houston Astros | Jesuit HS (FL)
Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 13 5 3.16 28 28 0 162.1 185 1.22
6 Seasons 45 30 3.57 122 119 0 671.0 750 1.25
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 28 13-5 3.16 162.1 185 1.22
6 Seasons 122 45-30 3.57 671.0 750 1.25

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 22 2109 343 23 6.7 88.5 111.6 9.5 32.1 .230 .373 .289 .298 .358 32.2 24.8 8.3 3.22 3.82
2016 23 1342 201 11 5.5 88.5 111.5 2.7 29.4 .212 .324 .325 .287 .350 35.5 30.1 12.8 3.22 3.55
2017 24 2014 329 14 4.3 87.4 114.9 1 30.4 .228 .342 .305 .287 .339 32.5 25.8 7.8 4.25 3.57
2018 25 2108 328 27 8.2 89.2 112.7 5.4 32 .220 .361 .289 .298 .359 35.1 26.9 9.5 3.86 3.78
2020 27 884 146 15 10.3 89.3 111.3 3.8 30.8 .243 .409 .308 .327 .388 34.9 24.7 8.8 3.93 4.61
2021 28 2788 413 22 5.3 89.8 117.3 5.1 25.9 .206 .309 .283 .283 .324 40.7 27 11.1 3.16 3.39
11245 1760 112 6.4 88.8 117.3 4.9 29.9 .221 .347 .296 .293 .348 35.4 26.6 9.7
6.6 88.3 122.2 12 32.9 .242 .402 .317 .312 .363 35.6 22 8.4

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

McCullers relies on 5 pitches.
Sinker
(34%) ,
Slider
(25.8%) ,
Curveball
(25%) ,
Changeup
(13.7%) ,
Cutter
(1.4%) ,


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Pitch Tracking

Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway%
2021 Sinker 949 672 277 34.0 93.9 239 208 61 39 13 2 7 36 172 .293 .273 .476 .414 .373 .349 91.8 0 2115 6.0 16.6 18.6
2021 Slider 720 621 99 25.8 86.0 188 160 24 16 4 1 3 69 92 .150 .145 .244 .232 .242 .239 85.9 16 2797 6.0 35.9 24.6
2021 Curveball 696 13 683 25.0 84.2 179 154 23 17 4 0 2 55 100 .149 .183 .214 .269 .227 .265 90.3 3 2923 5.9 36.7 26.8
2021 Changeup 383 101 282 13.7 85.8 75 71 13 8 4 0 1 24 47 .183 .200 .282 .266 .224 .230 86.7 4 1682 5.7 38.5 24.0
2021 Cutter 40 2 38 1.4 89.8 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 .333 .180 .667 .323 .414 .207 92.9 49 2535 5.9 42.9 8.3
2020 Sinker 369 242 127 41.7 93.8 101 85 19 9 8 0 2 14 72 .224 .269 .388 .412 .323 .354 87.2 1 2072 6.1 14.6 17.9
2020 Curveball 332 110 222 37.6 83.4 83 76 17 7 5 2 3 28 48 .224 .235 .461 .477 .318 .334 89.8 6 2787 6.0 42.1 28.0
2020 Changeup 163 70 93 18.4 86.3 34 30 6 3 3 0 0 9 22 .200 .213 .300 .271 .250 .272 88.4 5 1766 5.8 35.2 23.1
2020 Cutter 16 0 16 1.8 91.6 6 6 1 0 1 0 0 5 1 .167 .122 .333 .150 .206 .117 91.5 17 2349 6.1 50.0 55.6
2020 4-Seam Fastball 4 1 3 0.5 93.0 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 3 .333 .279 .667 .465 .413 .306 95.5 30 2056 6.1 0.0 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel %
2015 48.4 19.5 26.2 5.8 32.7 42 25.4 1.2 39.4 22.7 24.8 4.1 6.7
2016 58.7 15.4 23.4 2.5 26.9 41.8 31.3 2.5 49.3 12.4 23.4 6 5.5
2017 62.3 11.9 23.4 2.4 38 42.2 19.8 4.6 47.7 12.5 24.6 4.3 4.3
2018 55.5 17.4 24.4 2.7 41.8 38.7 19.5 2.4 45.1 18.6 19.5 5.5 8.2
2020 60.3 11 24.7 4.1 44.5 34.9 20.5 2.1 47.9 12.3 22.6 4.8 10.3
2021 56.9 19.9 19.9 3.4 35.1 37 27.8 1.9 44.8 19.9 22.8 5.3 5.3
56.5 16.6 23.4 3.5 36.3 39.7 24.1 2.4 45.1 17.3 23 4.9 6.4
45.1 22.5 25.4 7.1 36.6 37.8 25.5 3.7 33.2 24.4 24.4 5.7 6.6

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2021 Sinker HOU R 948 93.9 24.9 2.1 9 13.7 -1.5 -10
2021 Curveball HOU R 694 84.1 49.2 3.2 7 11.9 2.3 23
2021 Changeup HOU R 382 85.8 37.6 5.3 16 17.2 2.2 14
2021 Cutter HOU R 40 89.8 27.9 -2 -8 2.9 1.4 91
2021 Slider HOU R 719 86 32.5 -2.9 -8 13.7 6.9 102
2020 Sinker HOU R 369 93.8 23.9 2 9 14.8 -0.1 -1
2020 4-Seamer HOU R 4 93 19.5 -3.4 -21 9.1 1.1 14
2020 Curveball HOU R 332 83.4 50.2 3.3 7 11.7 2.4 26
2020 Cutter HOU R 16 91.6 23.5 -0.2 -1 0.9 -2.4 -158
2020 Changeup HOU R 163 86.3 35.2 4 13 16.6 2.4 17
2018 Sinker HOU R 767 94.2 22.5 0.5 2 15.6 0.5 3
2018 4-Seamer HOU R 18 93.8 17.1 -0.8 -5 5.6 -2.7 -33
2018 Changeup HOU R 339 87.3 34.4 2.9 9 17.4 3.1 22
2018 Curveball HOU R 982 85.8 45.6 0.6 1 7.4 -1 -12
2017 Changeup HOU R 230 88.7 32.1 4 14 17.3 2.9 20
2017 Curveball HOU R 952 85.6 48.5 4.8 11 7.2 -1 -12
2017 4-Seamer HOU R 491 94.2 20.4 -5.7 -38 13.4 4.6 52
2017 Sinker HOU R 326 94.1 23.9 2.7 13 15 -0.3 -2
2016 4-Seamer HOU R 564 94.4 20.2 -5.5 -37 5.6 -4 -41
2016 Changeup HOU R 102 89.3 32.5 4.5 16 12.7 -1.7 -12
2016 Curveball HOU R 661 85.7 48.7 6.2 14 11.3 3 37
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2021 Cutter 2.8 1 40 1.4 3 .333 .667 .417 42.9 33.3 8.3 .18 .323 .207 50
2021 Changeup 0.6 2 383 13.7 75 .183 .282 .239 38.5 32 24 .2 .266 .23 29.8
2021 Curveball -1.8 -13 696 25 179 .149 .214 .244 36.7 30.7 26.8 .183 .269 .269 40
2021 Slider -2 -14 720 25.8 188 .15 .244 .255 35.9 36.7 24.6 .145 .232 .24 25
2021 Sinker -0.5 -5 949 34 239 .293 .476 .381 16.6 15.1 18.6 .273 .414 .35 52.3
2020 4-Seamer 9.9 0 4 0.5 3 .333 .667 .417 0 0 0 .279 .465 .306 66.7
2020 Cutter -0.6 0 16 1.8 6 .167 .333 .208 50 83.3 55.6 .122 .15 .117 0
2020 Changeup -0.6 -1 163 18.4 34 .2 .3 .251 35.2 26.5 23.1 .213 .271 .271 36.4
2020 Curveball 0.8 3 332 37.6 83 .224 .461 .332 42.1 33.7 28 .235 .477 .333 33.3
2020 Sinker -0.2 -1 369 41.7 101 .224 .388 .326 14.6 13.9 17.9 .269 .412 .353 34.7
2018 4-Seamer 5.1 1 18 0.9 3 .5 1 .65 0 0 0 .39 .63 .52 50
2018 Changeup -1.4 -5 339 16.1 73 .136 .182 .183 41.5 28.8 26.9 .182 .274 .236 32.6
2018 Sinker 0.4 3 767 36.4 173 .264 .429 .366 16.6 13.9 17.6 .254 .427 .368 37.3
2018 Curveball -0.4 -4 982 46.6 278 .206 .354 .288 36.7 34.9 24.7 .209 .344 .273 34
2017 Changeup 3.3 8 230 11.4 48 .4 .556 .452 30.8 14.6 13 .278 .326 .289 21.1
2017 Sinker 1.6 5 326 16.2 77 .357 .471 .404 11 9.1 14 .298 .397 .335 39.7
2017 4-Seamer 0.5 3 491 24.4 86 .243 .429 .369 15 11.6 13.7 .274 .473 .381 29.5
2017 Curveball -1.8 -17 952 47.3 296 .201 .305 .269 36.5 36.1 28.4 .193 .3 .25 33.5
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 160 86.3 89 17.7 2:15 3:00 -45
2020 Curveball 329 83.4 72 18.1 7:30 7:30 0
2020 Cutter 16 91.6 49 8.4 12:30 12:00 30
2020 Sinker 337 93.9 79 16.8 1:15 2:15 -60
2021 Changeup 380 85.8 94 18.5 2:45 3:15 -30
2021 Curveball 675 84.1 70 18 7:45 7:30 15
2021 Cutter 40 89.8 26 6.8 11:15 11:00 15
2021 Sinker 945 93.9 75 15.3 1:30 2:15 -45
2021 Slider 712 86 43 15 8:30 9:30 -60
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2015 542 2202 -14 -23 14 9 -14
2016 350 1330 0 -13 1 3 -9
2017 589 2320 -9 -17 8 11 -6
2018 547 2197 -11 -17 11 11 -5
2020 292 1134 5 -11 5 7 6
2021 726 2965 -35 -36 21 17 -32
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 2109 48.5 61.8 86.6 26.7 50.7 39 57.1 43.5 24.5 8.1 71
2016 1342 46.8 59.3 83.8 30.2 43 42.7 56.3 43.8 31.3 7.2 72.9
2017 2014 45.4 63.7 86.5 30.5 46.2 41.8 55.7 45.6 28 6.5 63.8
2018 2108 47.2 64.8 78.6 28.4 45.6 42.4 59.8 45.5 31.3 8 67.5
2020 884 47.4 56.6 83.1 26.2 44.3 45 58.1 40.6 29.5 5.7 72
2021 2788 46.7 59.4 83.3 26 42.2 38.7 55.6 41.6 30.2 7.6 69
11245 47 61.4 83.6 27.9 45.4 41 56.9 43.6 29 7.4 68.9
48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.5 42.6 60.6 47 24.6 7.2 76

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2015 54 60 52 44 52 24 15 34 60 77 33 64 54 84 85 93
2016 73 84 88 84 46 65 61 51 45 92 2 93 73 75 77 97
2017 76 72 84 85 65 50 80 43 56 74 59 77 76 72 67 95
2018 58 71 66 57 53 24 20 24 51 75 29 84 58 73 56 90
2020 37 45 46 45 38 6 14 31 61 56 47 70 37 60 12 82
2021 77 83 91 91 56 36 86 25 32 72 17 78 77 59 25 94
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2020 22.3 12 12.2 0 2 16 3 25
2021 23.7 14 9.7 4 10 7 5 35.7

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2020 12 16 11 14 19 9 11 17 9 11 10 16 6 7 10 12 6 17 17 16 5 11 14 10 16 14 11 12 12 14 14
2021 14 11 15 8 13 7 9 10 10 10 17 10 7 10 9 11 7 9 11 12 6 8 10 9 8 10 8 8 10 6 12
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights and distances, but does not attempt to adjust for environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 95.1 94.4 -0.7 94.2 -0.2 0 93.7 93.8 0.1
Offspeed Velocity 89.5 89.3 -0.2 88.7 -0.6 -1.4 86.3 85.8 -0.5
Breaking Velocity 84.7 85.7 1 85.6 -0.1 0.2 83.4 85.1 1.7
Exit Velocity 88.5 88.5 0 87.4 -1.1 1.8 89.3 89.8 0.5
Launch Angle 9.5 2.7 -6.8 1 -1.7 4.4 3.8 5.1 1.3
Barrel % 6.7 5.5 -1.2 4.3 -1.2 3.9 10.3 5.3 -5
Hard Hit % 32.2 35.5 3.3 32.5 -3 2.6 34.9 40.7 5.8
Sweet Spot % 32.1 29.4 -2.7 30.4 1 1.6 30.8 25.9 -4.9
xBA .23 .212 -0.018 .228 0.016 -0.008 .243 .206 -0.037
BA .226 .261 0.035 .249 -0.012 -0.034 .22 .205 -0.015
xwOBA .298 .287 -0.011 .287 0 0.011 .327 .283 -0.044
wOBA .289 .325 0.036 .305 -0.02 -0.016 .308 .283 -0.025
xSLG .373 .324 -0.049 .342 0.018 0.019 .409 .309 -0.1
SLG .362 .381 0.019 .372 -0.009 -0.017 .405 .324 -0.081
K% 24.8 30.1 5.3 25.8 -4.3 1.1 24.7 27 2.3
BB% 8.3 12.8 4.5 7.8 -5 1.7 8.8 11.1 2.3
Swing % 43.5 43.8 0.3 45.6 1.8 -0.1 40.6 41.6 1
Whiff% 24.5 31.3 6.8 28 -3.3 3.3 29.5 30.2 0.7
In Zone % 48.5 46.8 -1.7 45.4 -1.4 1.8 47.4 46.7 -0.7
Out of Zone % 51.5 53.2 1.7 54.6 1.4 -1.8 52.6 53.3 0.7
Out of Zone Swing % 26.7 30.2 3.5 30.5 0.3 -2.1 26.2 26 -0.2
First Pitch Swing % 24.4 26.7 2.3 27 0.3 0.7 22.5 22.8 0.3
First Pitch Strike % 57.1 56.3 -0.8 55.7 -0.6 4.1 58.1 55.6 -2.5
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2016 336 .330 177 24 13.6 159 94 59.1
2017 509 .306 292 62 21.2 217 102 47.0
2018 527 .289 272 87 32.0 255 139 54.5
2020 226 .307 109 18 16.5 117 74 63.2
2021 684 .283 349 62 17.8 335 285 85.1

Pitch Distribution