Undrafted out of high school, McGreevy pitched out of the UC Santa Barbara bullpen as a freshman in 2019, earning First Team All-Big West honors in the process. He made a successful transition to the rotation in 2020, only to have that move cut short after just four starts. He picked up where he left off in 2021 as the Gauchos’ Friday night starter, raising his Draft stock considerably with a mix of improved stuff and advanced pitchability.
The 6-foot-4 McGreevy has always thrown a lot of strikes, walking just over two batters per nine innings in 2019-2020 combined. That continued this year, and he became even more interesting with harder and sharper stuff. His fastball is now up to 96 mph consistently, sitting around 93 mph and thrown with good sinking movement. He has two distinct breaking pitches, with his solid slider a touch ahead of his developing curveball. He knows how to mix in an average changeup as well.
McGreevy’s uptick in stuff has not come at the expense of his control, with his stuff playing up even more because of his ability to command all four pitches. That’s allowed him to move into top two round consideration, which would make him the earliest-drafted Gaucho since All-Star Shane Bieber was a fourth-rounder in 2016.
McGreevy ranked second in Division I with a 10.5 K/BB ratio during his final spring at UC Santa Barbara in 2021, striking out 115 and walking only 11 in 101 2/3 innings. The Cardinals selected him 18th overall and gave him a $2.75 million bonus as a potential quick mover. He did pitch the bulk of his second full season at Triple-A Memphis with 134 1/3 innings that ranked 11th-most at the Minors’ top level, but overall results weren’t stellar as he finished with a 4.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 18 percent strikeout rate.
In some ways, McGreevy feels like a pitcher out of another era. His sinking fastball averaged only 91.5 mph in 2023, but it helped him post a 52.4 percent ground-ball rate, best among Triple-A qualifiers. However, it, along with a four-seamer around the same velo, rarely missed bats and that’s a tough look in this age when whiffs are king. The former Gaucho’s best swing-and-miss and chase rates came on his mid-80s slider, thanks to its nice sweep. A 78-81 mph curveball and upper-80s changeup were below-average third and fourth options, and lefties took advantage, slugging .503 with an .887 OPS against McGreevy last season. McGreevy added an upper-80s cutter in his return to Triple-A in 2024 and featured it nicely in his MLB debut on July 31.
The 6-foot-4 hurler’s control remained as good as ever, even in Triple-A with the tighter ABS zone, and he’ll likely never get in his own way when it comes to walks. Because of that, he can eat innings in bunches. While that’s valuable, McGreevy currently lacks the stuff to be more than a No. 5 pitcher, and he may end up as a grounder-heavy bulk option or up-and-down arm.
McGreevy established a promising resume at UC Santa Barbara -- the same program that produced Shane Bieber -- that included being an All-Big West reliever in 2019 and possessing a 10.5 K/BB ratio (second-best in Division I) two years later. The Cardinals selected the right-hander 18th overall in 2021 and signed him for $2.75 million. McGreevy dominated out of the gate at High-A Peoria to begin his first full season, posting a 2.58 ERA with 41 strikeouts and only four walks in 45 1/3 frames, but was in for a rude awakening upon his promotion to Double-A Springfield (4.64 ERA, 76 strikeouts in 99 innings).
The former Gaucho’s best skill remains his ability to fill up the zone, but in the Texas League, he learned what upper-level hitters can do to pitchers relying solely on polish. His low-90s sinking fastball lacked the velocity to elicit whiffs, meaning McGreevy had to rely on ground balls to get outs. Those did come in droves (his 49.8 percent GB rate was third-best among Cards full-season qualifiers). His mid-80s slider, which has nice depth, has established itself as the better breaking pitch than his downward curveball, while his mid-80s changeup shows promise but did little to hold off lefties.
Much will come down to McGreevy’s velocity. If he can squeeze out an extra half or even full grade on his sinker, then the reality of him becoming a strike-throwing No. 4 starter comes into clearer view. If that doesn’t hold, he might have to settle as a grounder-heavy bulk pitcher out of the bullpen.
McGreevy went from undrafted out of a California high school in 2018 to ranking second among Division I hurlers with a 10.5 K/BB ratio for UC Santa Barbara three years later, making a stop as an All-Big West reliever in 2019 along the way. He showed an improved arsenal to post a 2.92 ERA with 115 strikeouts and only 11 walks in 101 2/3 innings in his Draft year. The Cardinals made him their first selection at No. 18 overall and went a bit below slot to sign him for $2.75 million. McGreevy made seven brief appearances between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Palm Beach to get his feet wet in pro ball.
The 6-foot-4 right-hander’s special ability to fill up the zone has been his calling card since his first days as a Gaucho, and it’s promising that it held up even as his stuff ticked up. He throws a sinking fastball that gets into the mid-90s to headline the four-pitch mix. He spins the ball with two different breaking balls. His slider was a little ahead of his curve going into pro ball, though either could develop into above-average pitches in time. An average changeup that he can spot as well keeps hitters on their toes and can be handy against left-handers.
McGreevy became UC Santa Barbara’s highest-drafted pitcher since Shane Bieber went in the fourth round in 2016. Bieber was also known for being a control artist before his stuff ticked up in pro ball. No one should set expectations that high on McGreevy just yet, but his diverse arsenal and ability to locate could fuel a quick trip toward the St. Louis rotation.
Undrafted out of high school, McGreevy pitched out of the UC Santa Barbara bullpen as a freshman in 2019, earning First Team All-Big West honors in the process. He made a successful transition to the rotation in 2020, only to have that move cut short after four starts. He picked up where he left off in 2021 as the Gauchos’ Friday night starter, raising his Draft stock considerably with a mix of improved stuff and advanced pitchability. The Cardinals liked what they saw and grabbed him 18th overall before handing him a $2.75 million bonus.
The 6-foot-4 McGreevy has always thrown a lot of strikes, walking just over two batters per nine innings in 2019-2020 combined. That continued this year, and he became even more interesting with harder and sharper stuff. His fastball is now up in the mid-90s consistently and thrown with good sinking movement. He has two distinct breaking pitches, with his solid slider a touch ahead of his developing curveball. He knows how to mix in an average changeup as well.
McGreevy’s uptick in stuff has not come at the expense of his control, with his stuff playing up even more because of his ability to command all four pitches. That elevated his Draft stock, and he now has the distinction of being the earliest-drafted Gaucho since Shane Bieber was a fourth-rounder in 2016.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2024
21.5
1
0.7
0
1
1
0
0.0
Player
21.5
1
0.7
0
1
1
0
0.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2024
1
0
0
2
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
Player
1
0
0
2
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here