Villanova might be more known for its basketball program, but it has had more than 60 baseball players drafted in the program’s history, though none since 2017 and the last big leaguer to come from the school was outfielder Matt Szczur, a 2010 draftee. Graceffo, who worked his way into the Wildcats’ weekend rotation as a freshman in 2019, had taken a nice step forward as a starting pitcher prospect before the shutdown in 2020 and carried that over to 2021, where his dominance as the school’s Friday night starter gives him the chance to be just the second Villanova product to go in the top seven rounds since Szczur was selected in the fifth.
After a big winter workout regimen, Graceffo showed up this spring throwing harder than he had previously, with his fastball now up to 95 mph. He throws it with good sink and that, plus a changeup that could be a plus pitch in the future, elicits a lot of weak contact on the ground. He has an average slider that averages around 81 mph and he can subtract from it to give it more of a mid-70s curve type feel.
With the uptick in velocity, the 6-foot-4 Graceffo has actually become a better strike-thrower this spring while missing more bats. He won’t get out-worked in the weight room and gets high marks for his competitive nature on the mound, ingredients teams love in a college performer.
Graceffo commanded scouts’ attentions with a 1.54 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 82 innings as a Villanova junior in 2021, prompting the Cardinals to take him in the fifth round that summer. The former Wildcat was a High-A standout in his first full season (0.99 ERA, 56/4 K/BB in 45 2/3 innings) and ended the campaign at Double-A Springfield, finishing with 139 1/3 frames – a high total for a pitcher just getting going in the pros. He took a step back at Triple-A in Memphis, however, posting a 4.92 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with 81 strikeouts in 86 innings and missing six weeks in the first half due to right shoulder inflammation.
Last season, Graceffo touched as high as 99.4 mph, per Triple-A Statcast, but was generally around 93-96. That’s typically above-average velocity, but a lack of movement (and batters' improved ability to hit heat) made it play below that. He's been in the 91-94 mph range primary in 2024. The 6-foot-4 righty’s best pitch is a 85-87 mph slider, a tight breaking ball with some dip that can absolutely wear out the gloveside portion of the plate. Graceffo’s 79-81 mph curveball and 81-83 mph changeup didn’t get nearly as many whiffs as the slider, resulting in some splits issues last year, but they've done a better job at getting chase out of the zone in 2024.
The New Jersey native’s walk rate jumped to 11.6 percent at the Minors’ highest level last year but has been more in check this summer. Graceffo returned to Memphis and earned two Major League appearances in June and July, but he could use a true plus pitch to make sure he sticks around longer in any role.
Villanova isn’t known as a baseball factory necessarily, but when it has a pitcher who posts a 1.54 ERA with 86 strikeouts in 82 innings, scouts tend to notice. That was Graceffo’s junior year in 2021, and the Cardinals selected him in the fifth round that July. The right-hander showed a velocity bump in his first Spring Training, touching as high as 100 mph, and shoved early at High-A Peoria with a 0.99 ERA, 56 strikeouts and four walks in 45 2/3 innings. He was humbled slightly at Double-A Springfield but earned points for throwing 139 1/3 frames in his first full season while ending in the upper Minors.
Graceffo rocks back in his windup before becoming square to the plate, and that kinetic motion can make him tougher for hitters to pick up. He spots his 93-95 mph mph fastball well, and that’s needed since it doesn’t come with a ton of movement. His mid-80s slider actually moves pretty well vertically and has the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches. A low-80s sinking changeup plays even better off the fastball now because of the increased separation, while his mid-70s curveball looks like an average fourth pitch.
The former Wildcat worked deeper into games than many first-year pitchers because of his impressive ability to fill up the zone. That caught up to him in the Texas League as Double-A hitters were able to make more contact, but an improved ability to work around the edges helped him end 2022 on a high. He's remained at Triple-A Memphis throughout 2023 as of August and hasn't quite broken through to the Majors just yet. Graceffo’s special command gives him a promising floor as a No. 5 starter, and he can be more if he uses the breadth of his arsenal to generate more whiffs.
Graceffo became the first Villanova player drafted since 2017 when the Cardinals selected him in the fifth round last July. (He was later joined by fellow Wildcats pitcher Jimmy Kingsbury, a 17th-round pick by the Mariners.) The right-hander posted a 1.54 ERA with 86 strikeouts in 82 innings as a junior and forced the issue with three impressive starts in the Cape Cod League just before the Draft. He signed for below slot at $300,000, made 11 appearances for Single-A Palm Beach and then broke out in his first full season at High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield.
The 6-foot-4 hurler gained strength in the winter before his junior year and showed sustained velocity bumps through his college, summer ball and pro seasons. After throwing in the low-90s at school, he is much more consistently around 94-96 mph and touches the upper-90s. Beyond the improved velocity, Graceffo throws a promising slider that he can dot on the edges of the zone and which flashes plus. His low-80s, sinking changeup remains above-average from his college days, and a mid-70s curve is a good vertical breaking option, though it’ll likely settle in as his fourth pitch.
Graceffo’s ability to throw strikes as helped him work deep into Peoria and Springfield games already. While there are some concerns that his K rate has dipped at Double-A, his overall command of the four-pitch arsenal has induced weak contact and kept runners off the basepaths. The former Wildcat already looks like a fifth-round steal for the Cardinals, and one year after his selection, he looks close to hitting his ceiling as a mid-rotation-type in St. Louis.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2024
22.5
1
1.8
-1
0
2
1
100.0
Player
22.5
1
1.8
-1
0
2
1
100.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2024
1
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
3
2
2
Player
1
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
3
2
2
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
STL
