The Horizon League reliever of the year in 2021 and 2022 at Milwaukee, Blubaugh became a starter after the Astros drafted him in the seventh round in the latter year. The transition has gone well, as he performed well in Double-A and the Arizona Fall League to cap his first full pro season and won All-Star accolades and a championship in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in his second. He led the PCL with 12 victories and strikeout rate (24 percent) while ranking second in ERA (3.83) and fourth in strikeouts (128 in 124 2/3 innings).
Blubaugh operates with a 92-95 mph fastball that tops out at 97 and comes out of a high arm slot with armside run and carry that keeps it off barrels. His most effective secondary pitch is a low-80s changeup with fade and depth. Houston has helped him develop a sweeping low-80s slider that elicits chases but gets pounded when he leaves it over the plate, and he also has an upper-70 curveball with similar issues and a mid-80s cutter.
A basketball and football standout as an Ohio prepster, Blubaugh has the athleticism to repeat his upright delivery with a long arm action in back. With a little more refinement of his arsenal, control and command, he could be a No. 4 starter in the big leagues. If that doesn't happen, he'll likely be a spot starter and multi-inning reliever.
Though Blubaugh was the Horizon League reliever of the year in 2021 and 2022, Houston drafted the Milwaukee product in the seventh round in '22 with the intention of stretching him out into a starter. Working in a piggyback system in his first full pro season, he notched 112 strikeouts in 100 innings while reaching Double-A, where he logged a 1.26 ERA in four outings. He continued to impress in the Arizona Fall League and looks poised for a breakout 2024 season.
The Astros have reshaped Blubaugh's pitches since he entered pro ball, and he has adapted quickly. He usually deals with a 92-95 mph fastball that features armside run and carry, and his heater climbed into the upper 90s when he worked shorter stints in the AFL. He has picked up an 82-85 mph sweeping slider and will add a tighter bullet version in 2024.
Blubaugh also has a low-80s changeup with interesting fade and tumble and an upper-70s curveball with good depth, though he struggles to throw them for strikes. Also a basketball and football standout in high school, he's a quality athlete who should have average or better control once he gets more accustomed to his repertoire and longer outings. If his velocity continues to increase, he could be the Astros' next pitching surprise.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2025
25.11
2
1.2
1
2
0
1
50.0
Player
25.11
2
1.2
1
2
0
1
50.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2025
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Player
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
HOU
