Nastrini was a tall and projectable pitcher at Cathedral Catholic High School in San Diego, the same school that has produced arms like Stephen Gonsalves and Brady Aiken. Undrafted, he had little problem making the transition to UCLA’s rotation as a freshman, pitching well in his first three appearances before being shut down with thoracic outlet syndrome. He worked his way back to make two postseason starts before throwing very well in the Cape Cod League and served as the Bruins’ Saturday starter in the short-lived 2020 season. Issues with command have sidetracked him in 2021, as he lost his rotation spot and had trouble making an impact as a reliever.
The 6-foot-3 right-hander has a legitimate four-pitch mix with the prototypical starting pitcher’s body. His fastball has averaged around 93 mph in 2021 and touched 98, and like most UCLA pitchers, relies on his four-seamer up in the zone, getting hitters to chase and miss it. His best secondary offering is his changeup, which hitters have a hard time recognizing, thrown with a solid 10-mph differential from his fastball, but with the same arm action. He complements those with an average mid-80s slider and mid-to-upper-70s curveball.
On the surface, Nastrini has a repeatable delivery, but struggles with finding the strike zone in the shortened 2020 season (5.7 BB/9) have intensified this year. With his stuff still very good and missing bats, a team is likely to take a chance and try to fix him at the next level, but he’s looking for like a future reliever, at best.
Nastrini lost the strike zone as a UCLA junior in 2021, dropping out of the rotation after just five starts, but the Dodgers believed the local product's control issues were fixable. He performed well in a pre-Draft workout and during summer ball, so they signed him for an over-slot $497,500 in the fourth round and helped him quickly develop into one of their top pitching prospects. Now he's the top righty in the White Sox system after Chicago acquired him in a trade for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly last July.
After working at 93-96 mph and popping 98 with impressive vertical break on his fastball in his first two-plus years as a pro, Nastini has pitched at 92-94 mph in 2024. His best secondary offering is a tight mid-80s slider with high spin rates, as does his 78-82 mph curveball that he doesn't land for strikes as consistently. His mid-80s changeup tumbles at the plate and gives him a solid fourth option.
While Nastrini has the stuff to pitch near the front of a rotation, how well he harnesses it ultimately will determine his role. He's throwing more strikes than he did at UCLA, but his control and command have regressed this year and are below average. His delivery isn't complicated yet he struggles to repeat it at times.
Nastrini began 2021 as one of the best college pitching prospects on the West Coast, but he lost the strike zone and fell out of UCLA's rotation after just five starts. The Dodgers knew the local product well enough to believe that his control issues were fixable, a notion that grew stronger after he performed well in a pre-Draft workout and with the summer Santa Barbara Foresters, so they signed him for an over-slot $497,500 as a fourth-rounder. He led the Los Angeles system in strikeouts (169), strikeout rate (13.0 per nine innings) and opponent average (.180) while shooting to Double-A in his first full season, then went to the White Sox in a trade for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly midway through his second.
Nastrini worked with a 92-94 mph fastball in college but has operated at 94-96 and reached 98 with outstanding carry and pitch characteristics as a pro. His mid-80s slider can be unhittable and features high spin rates, as does his 78-82 mph curveball, which also shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch but doesn't land in the zone as consistently. He's showing increased feel for a mid-80s changeup that bottoms out at the plate and utilized it more often in 2022.
There's no doubt that Nastrini's stuff gives him the upside of a frontline starter, but the question is will he throw enough strikes to reach his ceiling. He does have a repeatable delivery, and some minor adjustments to his tempo and catcher targeting helped him reduce his walk rate from 7.4 per nine innings at UCLA to 4.2 in his first full pro season. He'll be an asset in the rotation if he can develop average control and decent command, and still could be an impact reliever if he doesn't.
Nastrini opened 2021 as one of the best college pitching prospects on the West Coast and a potential second- or third-rounder, but his control evaporated and he pitched his way out of UCLA's rotation after just five starts. The Dodgers scouted the local product enough to believe that his issues were correctable, and their confidence rose when he impressed in a pre-Draft workout for them and also struck out 24 in 13 scoreless innings with the summer Santa Barbara Foresters, whom he helped win the National Baseball Congress World Series in 2020. After they signed him in the fourth round for an over-slot $497,500, he dazzled with his stuff in his pro debut and during instructional league.
After sitting at 92-94 mph with his fastball at UCLA, Nastrini averaged 96 mph with outstanding carry and pitch characteristics in shorter stints as a pro. He also delivered high spin rates on both his upper-70s downer curveball and low-80s sweeping slider, which both show the potential to become plus offerings. He also can miss bats with a mid-80s changeup that dives at the plate, though he doesn't use it very often.
Nastrini piled up 30 strikeouts in 13 innings in Low-A but he also issued seven walks. He never had pinpoint control at UCLA, but he has a repeatable delivery and the Dodgers think they can help him with some minor tweaks such as tempo and catcher targeting. If he develops average control and command while maintaining the arsenal he showed in his debut, he could pitch in the front half of a big league rotation.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2024
22.8
7
6.4
1
1
4
3
42.9
Player
22.8
7
6.4
1
1
4
3
42.9
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2024
7
6
6
6
6
7
7
6
5
5
6
5
7
7
7
6
7
7
6
7
8
7
7
7
7
7
4
4
8
7
7
Player
7
6
6
6
6
7
7
6
5
5
6
5
7
7
7
6
7
7
6
7
8
7
7
7
7
7
4
4
8
7
7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here