Justin Nicolino
P | Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 3" 195LBS | Age: 32
Draft: 2010 | Rd: 2, #80, Toronto Blue Jays | University HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2015 5 4 4.01 12 12 0 74 23 1.24
2016 3 6 4.99 18 13 0 79.1 37 1.46
2017 2 3 5.06 20 8 0 48 26 1.79
3 Seasons 10 13 4.65 50 33 0 201.1 86 1.46
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2015 12 5-4 4.01 74 23 1.24
2016 18 3-6 4.99 79.1 37 1.46
2017 20 2-3 5.06 48 26 1.79
3 Seasons 50 10-13 4.65 201.1 86 1.46
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 Sweet
Spot %		 XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 23 1047 255 18 7.1 6.0 88.1 112.2 11.4 33.7 .279 .478 .325 .353 .358 34.5 7.6 6.6 4.01 5.30
2016 24 1209 286 17 5.9 4.9 90.3 113.2 10.7 34.6 .309 .489 .341 .359 .381 38.8 10.7 5.8 4.99 5.63
2017 25 840 182 9 4.9 3.9 88.4 114.5 6.7 38.5 .330 .513 .377 .383 .411 34.1 11.4 8.7 5.06 6.70
Player 3096 723 44 6.1 5.0 89.0 114.5 9.9 35.3 .304 .491 .345 .363 .380 36.1 9.8 6.8
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .368 36.3 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Nicolino relies on 4 pitches.
Four Seamer
(52.8%) ,
Changeup
(20.3%) ,
Curveball
(16.9%) ,
Cutter
(10.0%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2015 45.9 21.2 27.5 5.5 31.4 38.4 30.2 2.4 34.1 23.9 24.7 5.1 7.1 6.0
2016 49.3 19.2 25.9 5.6 39.2 39.9 21.0 1.7 33.9 20.6 29.0 4.2 5.9 4.9
2017 47.8 18.1 31.9 2.2 30.8 41.8 27.5 6.6 31.9 17.0 30.2 8.2 4.9 3.9
Player 47.7 19.6 27.9 4.7 34.3 39.8 25.9 3.2 33.5 20.9 27.8 5.5 6.1 5.0
MLB 44.6 23.5 24.8 7.0 37.0 37.5 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2017 Cutter MIA L 84 88.1 25.5 0.7 3 3.7 -5.8 -274
2017 4-Seam Fastball MIA L 443 90.9 19.4 -3.5 -22 14.3 6.2 78
2017 Curveball MIA L 142 77.1 52.2 -5.2 -9 6.9 -1.2 -15
2017 Changeup MIA L 170 83.5 31.2 0.8 3 14.5 0.7 5
2016 Changeup MIA L 215 83.2 31.8 0.7 2 15.7 3.1 25
2016 Curveball MIA L 145 77.5 50.6 -6.1 -11 3.8 -3.9 -51
2016 4-Seam Fastball MIA L 628 89.7 21.7 -4.0 -23 15.2 7.7 104
2016 Cutter MIA L 201 87.0 28.0 -1.0 -4 4.0 -4.9 -579
2015 Curveball MIA L 85 76.0 54.9 -3.3 -6 4.5 -4.8 -52
2015 4-Seam Fastball MIA L 585 89.3 21.3 -3.5 -20 15.4 7.7 100
2015 Cutter MIA L 184 86.1 29.0 -0.5 -2 1.8 -3.5 -200
2015 Changeup MIA L 183 81.7 34.2 1.9 6 16.1 3.5 28
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2017 4-Seam Fastball -3.1 -14 443 52.7 109 .368 .653 .485 9.7 10.1 10.3 .346 .574 .424 40.7
2017 Changeup -0.7 -1 170 20.2 50 .239 .370 .307 28.7 12.0 13.3 .285 .455 .336 24.4
2017 Curveball 1.4 2 142 16.9 34 .303 .455 .318 16.2 8.8 8.8 .390 .545 .404 35.5
2017 Cutter 1.1 1 84 10.0 31 .333 .400 .335 7.1 19.4 14.6 .281 .374 .296 25.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2015 298 1,041 -4 11 -7 -2 -2
2016 345 1,205 -4 8 -7 -4 -8
2017 224 839 -6 5 -7 -3 -12
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 1,047 51.7 67.8 90.7 29.9 82.1 44.4 64.8 49.6 10.8 7.6 81.3
2016 1,209 49.7 65.2 91.6 27.8 76.3 43.1 62.7 46.4 11.8 7.7 69.9
2017 840 52.6 64.6 86.3 23.6 75.5 45.1 60.4 45.1 15.3 7.4 77.4
Player 3,096 51.2 66.0 89.8 27.4 78.3 44.1 62.8 47.1 12.3 7.6 75.7
MLB 48.6 66.9 82.0 28.4 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA 		xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit% 		K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate 		FB
Velo 		FB
Spin 		CB
Spin 		Extension
2015 5 9 4 5 17 38 12 50 36 1 65 1 54 10 12 28 1
2016 6 1 5 23 9 42 51 6 16 1 82 1 36 10 8 34 1
2017 2 1 4 27 1 72 70 19 42 1 43 3 11 21 8 34 1
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2016 21.1 8 9.7 -2 14 7 5 62.5
2017 22.7 8 7.1 1 1 6 2 25.0
Player 21.9 16 16.8 -1 15 13 7 43.8

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2016 8 11 5 12 9 6 12 7 7 6 8 17 10 8 9 10 6 7 10 12 10 9 15 12 9 9 9 17 12 10 7
2017 8 8 7 5 7 6 8 7 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 9 8 8 7 8 6 7 8 8 3
Player 16 19 12 17 16 12 20 14 12 12 15 25 18 16 16 18 13 15 18 19 17 18 23 20 16 17 15 24 20 18 10
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 88.5 89.1 0.6 ↑ 90.4 1.3 ↑
Offspeed Velocity 81.7 83.2 1.5 ↑ 83.5 0.3 ↑
Breaking Velocity 76.0 77.5 1.5 ↑ 77.1 -0.4 ↓
Exit Velocity 88.1 90.3 2.2 ↑ 88.4 -1.9 ↓
Launch Angle 11.4 10.7 -0.7 ↓ 6.7 -4.0 ↓
Barrel % 7.1 5.9 -1.2 ↓ 4.9 -1.0 ↓
Hard Hit % 34.5 38.8 4.3 ↑ 34.1 -4.7 ↓
Sweet Spot % 33.7 34.6 0.9 ↑ 38.5 3.9 ↑
xBA .279 .309 0.030 ↑ .330 0.021 ↑
BA .267 .307 0.040 ↑ .324 0.017 ↑
xwOBA .353 .359 0.006 ↑ .383 0.024 ↑
wOBA .325 .341 0.016 ↑ .377 0.036 ↑
xSLG .478 .489 0.011 ↑ .513 0.024 ↑
SLG .437 .450 0.013 ↑ .520 0.070 ↑
K% 7.6 10.7 3.1 ↑ 11.4 0.7 ↑
BB% 6.6 5.8 -0.8 ↓ 8.7 2.9 ↑
Swing % 49.6 46.4 -3.2 ↓ 45.1 -1.3 ↓
Whiff% 10.8 11.8 1.0 ↑ 15.3 3.5 ↑
In Zone % 51.7 49.7 -2.0 ↓ 52.6 2.9 ↑
Out of Zone % 48.3 50.3 2.0 ↑ 47.4 -2.9 ↓
Out of Zone Swing % 29.9 27.8 -2.1 ↓ 23.6 -4.2 ↓
First Pitch Swing % 31.6 28.0 -3.6 ↓ 21.1 -6.9 ↓
First Pitch Strike % 64.8 62.7 -2.1 ↓ 60.4 -2.3 ↓
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2016 Shifts 328 .341 240 2 0.8 88 5 5.7
2017 Shifts 224 .377 165 1 0.6 59 8 13.6
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2015 317 16.4 37.9% 3.8% 154 23.4 8.4% 18.8%
2016 364 16.7 34.1% 3.0% 190 23.4 3.7% 18.9%
2017 250 18.3 18.8% 0.4% 160 24.9 0.0% 15.6%
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Pitch Distribution

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