Justin Nicolino
P | B/T: L/L | 6' 3" 195LBS | Age: 31

Draft: 2010 | Rd: 2, #80, Toronto Blue Jays | University HS

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2017 2 3 5.06 20 8 0 48.0 26 1.79
3 Seasons 10 13 4.65 50 33 0 201.1 86 1.46
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2017 20 2-3 5.06 48.0 26 1.79
3 Seasons 50 10-13 4.65 201.1 86 1.46

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 23 1047 255 18 7.1 6.0 88.1 112.2 11.4 33.7 .279 .478 .325 .353 .358 34.5 7.6 6.6 4.01 5.30
2016 24 1209 286 17 5.9 4.9 90.3 113.2 10.7 34.6 .309 .489 .341 .360 .381 38.8 10.7 5.8 4.99 5.67
2017 25 840 182 9 4.9 3.9 88.4 114.5 6.7 38.5 .330 .513 .377 .383 .411 34.1 11.4 8.7 5.06 6.70
Player 3096 723 44 6.1 5.0 89.0 114.5 9.9 35.3 .304 .491 .345 .363 .380 36.1 9.8 6.8
MLB 6.7 4.6 88.4 122.4 12.1 33.0 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 35.8 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Nicolino relies on 4 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(52.8%) ,
Changeup
(20.3%) ,
Curveball
(16.9%) ,
Cutter
(10%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2015 45.9 21.2 27.5 5.5 31.4 38.4 30.2 2.4 34.1 23.9 24.7 5.1 7.1 6.0
2016 49.3 19.2 25.9 5.6 39.2 39.9 21.0 1.7 33.9 20.6 29.0 4.2 5.9 4.9
2017 47.8 18.1 31.9 2.2 30.8 41.8 27.5 6.6 31.9 17.0 30.2 8.2 4.9 3.9
Player 47.7 19.6 27.9 4.7 34.3 39.8 25.9 3.2 33.5 20.9 27.8 5.5 6.1 5.0
MLB 44.9 23.1 25.0 7.1 36.8 37.7 25.4 3.8 33.0 24.6 24.4 5.7 6.7 4.6
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2017 Curveball MIA L 142 77.1 52.2 -5.2 -9 6.9 -1.2 -14
2017 Cutter MIA L 84 88.1 25.5 0.7 3 3.7 -5.8 -275
2017 Changeup MIA L 170 83.5 31.2 0.7 2 14.5 0.8 6
2017 4-Seamer MIA L 443 90.9 19.4 -3.5 -22 14.3 6.2 78
2016 Changeup MIA L 215 83.2 31.2 1.5 5 15.7 3.0 24
2016 Curveball MIA L 145 77.5 50.9 -5.2 -9 3.8 -3.6 -49
2016 4-Seamer MIA L 628 89.7 20.9 -4.6 -29 15.2 7.9 108
2016 Cutter MIA L 201 87.0 27.2 -1.9 -8 4.0 -4.6 -879
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2017 4-Seamer 3.1 14 443 52.7 109 .368 .653 .485 9.7 10.1 10.3 .346 .574 .424 40.7
2017 Changeup 0.7 1 170 20.2 50 .239 .370 .307 28.7 12.0 13.3 .285 .455 .336 24.4
2017 Curveball -1.4 -2 142 16.9 34 .303 .455 .318 16.2 8.8 8.8 .390 .545 .404 35.5
2017 Cutter -1.1 -1 84 10.0 31 .333 .400 .335 7.1 19.4 14.6 .281 .374 .296 25.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2015 298 1,041 4 -11 7 2 2
2016 345 1,205 4 -8 7 5 8
2017 224 839 6 -4 7 3 12
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 1,047 52.0 67.5 90.7 30.1 82.1 44.3 64.8 49.6 10.8 7.5 80.8
2016 1,209 49.7 65.4 91.6 27.6 76.2 43.0 62.7 46.4 11.8 7.4 70.0
2017 840 52.3 64.9 86.3 23.5 75.5 45.2 60.4 45.1 15.3 7.5 77.8
Player 3,096 51.2 66.0 89.9 27.4 78.2 44.0 62.8 47.1 12.3 7.5 75.8
MLB 48.5 66.9 82.0 28.4 58.3 42.6 60.8 47.1 24.7 7.2 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2015 5 9 4 5 18 38 12 50 36 1 65 1 56 7 12 28 1
2016 6 1 5 23 8 42 51 6 16 1 82 1 34 10 9 34 1
2017 2 1 4 27 1 72 70 19 42 1 43 3 10 19 8 34 1
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2016 21.1 8 9.5 -2 13 6 5 62.5
2017 22.7 8 6.5 2 0 5 3 37.5
Player 21.9 16 16.0 0 13 11 8 50.0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2016 8 10 18 7 8 10 6 11 8 6 11 7 6 7 7 11 8 11 7 8 17 6 8 10 10 13 12 9 9 8 16
2017 8 8 7 7 6 8 5 8 6 5 5 6 5 5 7 8 6 8 3 6 7 6 8 8 7 5 8 7 8 6 7
Player 16 18 25 14 14 18 11 19 14 11 16 13 11 12 14 19 14 19 10 14 24 12 16 18 17 18 20 16 17 14 23
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 88.5 89.1 0.6 1.3
Offspeed Velocity 81.7 83.2 1.5 0.3
Breaking Velocity 76 77.5 1.5 -0.4
Exit Velocity 88.1 90.3 2.2 -1.9
Launch Angle 11.4 10.7 -0.7 -4
Barrel % 7.1 5.9 -1.2 -1
Hard Hit % 34.5 38.8 4.3 -4.7
Sweet Spot % 33.7 34.6 0.9 3.9
xBA .279 .309 0.03 0.021
BA .267 .307 0.04 0.017
xwOBA .353 .36 0.007 0.023
wOBA .325 .341 0.016 0.036
xSLG .478 .489 0.011 0.024
SLG .437 .45 0.013 0.07
K% 7.6 10.7 3.1 0.7
BB% 6.6 5.8 -0.8 2.9
Swing % 49.6 46.4 -3.2 -1.3
Whiff% 10.8 11.8 1 3.5
In Zone % 52 49.7 -2.3 2.6
Out of Zone % 48 50.3 2.3 -2.6
Out of Zone Swing % 30.1 27.6 -2.5 -4.1
First Pitch Swing % 31.6 28 -3.6 -6.9
First Pitch Strike % 64.8 62.7 -2.1 -2.3
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2016 328 .341 240 2 0.8 88 2 2.3
2017 224 .377 165 1 0.6 59 5 8.5

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2015 317 16.4 37.9% 3.8% 158 23.8 8.2% 19.0%
2016 365 16.7 34.0% 3.3% 198 23.9 3.5% 20.7%
2017 250 18.3 18.8% 0.4% 163 24.9 0.0% 17.2%
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Pitch Distribution