Merrill Kelly
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 2" 202LBS | Age: 36
Draft: 2010 | Rd: 8, #251, Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona State
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2022 13 8 3.37 33 33 0 200.1 177 1.14
2023 12 8 3.29 30 30 0 177.2 187 1.19
2024 5 1 4.03 13 13 0 73.2 63 1.17
6 Seasons 53 44 3.82 140 140 0 824.1 744 1.22
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2022 33 13-8 3.37 200.1 177 1.14
2023 30 12-8 3.29 177.2 187 1.19
2024 13 5-1 4.03 73.2 63 1.17
6 Seasons 140 53-44 3.82 824.1 744 1.22
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 LA Sweet-
Spot %		 XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 30 2962 558 53 9.5 6.8 89.9 112.7 12.5 33.2 .271 .493 .318 .344 .409 40.0 20.3 7.3 4.42 5.34
2020 31 473 90 10 11.1 8.0 88.5 115.0 13.3 36.7 .245 .436 .275 .304 .381 40.0 23.2 4.0 2.58 3.90
2021 32 2425 492 31 6.3 4.6 89.0 114.9 12.9 33.1 .270 .432 .319 .324 .378 39.6 19.5 6.1 4.44 4.48
2022 33 3071 564 47 8.3 5.8 88.5 111.7 14.0 31.2 .230 .383 .289 .296 .347 36.5 22.0 7.6 3.37 3.62
2023 34 2803 462 36 7.8 5.0 89.6 113.2 11.8 35.1 .244 .389 .294 .313 .379 41.8 25.9 9.4 3.29 4.13
2024 35 1142 215 23 10.7 7.7 90.5 110.0 11.0 33.5 .263 .470 .311 .340 .405 40.9 21.0 6.3 4.03 4.94
Player 12876 2381 200 8.4 5.9 89.4 115.0 12.7 33.2 .254 .429 .304 .320 .381 39.5 21.9 7.4
MLB 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 36.5 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 6 pitches.
Cutter
(25.2%) ,
Changeup
(20.9%) ,
Four Seamer
(19.6%) ,
Sinker
(14.6%) ,
Slider
(11.8%) ,
Curveball
(7.8%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 43.2 25.8 25.3 5.7 41.2 35.8 22.9 2.3 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.6 9.5 6.8
2020 45.6 18.9 23.3 12.2 46.7 31.1 22.2 4.4 28.9 25.6 21.1 6.7 11.1 8.0
2021 44.7 24.2 25.2 5.9 41.9 33.1 25.0 5.5 28.0 24.8 28.0 7.3 6.3 4.6
2022 43.8 28.4 21.6 6.2 41.1 36.9 22.0 3.4 33.5 28.0 21.3 4.8 8.3 5.8
2023 45.7 23.6 24.0 6.7 42.4 37.2 20.3 3.7 33.8 22.5 24.9 7.4 7.8 5.0
2024 42.8 29.8 23.3 4.2 42.3 34.4 23.3 2.3 33.0 21.4 25.6 6.0 10.7 7.7
Player 44.2 25.7 23.9 6.2 41.9 35.5 22.6 3.6 32.0 24.9 24.5 6.2 8.4 5.9
MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop		vs.
Comparable		Horizontal
Break		vs.
Comparable		Vertical
Break		vs. AvgHorizontal
Break		vs. Avg
2024 Sinker AZ R 167 92.3 25.3 0.2 15.1ARM -0.3 6.8 0.5 15.1ARM 0.3
2024 Cutter AZ R 288 90.3 22.5 2.6 1.3ARM -2.9 10.8 2.5 1.3ARM -4.0
2024 Slider AZ R 135 85.6 34.9 -1.1 2.8GLV -2.4 2.2 -0.6 2.8GLV -2.3
2024 Curveball AZ R 89 82.2 50.4 1.0 8.8GLV -0.5 -10.0 0.1 8.8GLV -0.6
2024 Changeup AZ R 239 88.4 33.9 3.1 14.4ARM -0.4 1.0 3.9 14.4ARM 0.2
2024 4-Seam Fastball AZ R 224 91.9 17.8 -0.8 8.3ARM -0.2 14.5 -1.3 8.3ARM 0.8
2023 Sinker AZ R 338 92.4 25.8 1.5 15.5ARM 0.3 6.4 1.2 15.5ARM 0.5
2023 Curveball AZ R 308 82.1 51.0 1.5 8.9GLV 0.3 -10.4 0.5 8.9GLV 0.0
2023 Changeup AZ R 648 88.7 33.8 3.7 15.7ARM 0.8 0.9 4.5 15.7ARM 1.3
2023 Slider AZ R 155 85.4 34.3 -1.8 1.6GLV -3.5 3.2 -1.7 1.6GLV -3.7
2023 4-Seam Fastball AZ R 844 92.2 17.4 -0.7 7.4ARM -0.6 14.7 -1.1 7.4ARM 0.0
2023 Cutter AZ R 510 90.8 20.6 4.0 1.3ARM -2.9 12.4 4.5 1.3ARM -3.9
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2024 Cutter 0.2 1 288 25.2 68 .276 .500 .374 10.9 13.2 18.8 .301 .573 .412 50.0
2024 Changeup 4.1 10 239 20.9 74 .099 .099 .115 31.5 25.7 23.8 .165 .202 .184 23.1
2024 4-Seam Fastball -0.7 -2 224 19.6 52 .260 .540 .384 20.4 25.0 21.3 .255 .638 .386 59.5
2024 Sinker -4.2 -7 167 14.6 50 .378 .644 .462 8.6 18.0 16.4 .393 .634 .466 44.4
2024 Slider 0.3 0 135 11.8 35 .273 .455 .343 39.4 25.7 17.3 .217 .313 .260 25.0
2024 Curveball -1.0 -1 89 7.8 21 .250 .550 .352 20.5 19.0 16.7 .294 .577 .385 43.8
2023 4-Seam Fastball -0.1 -1 844 30.1 203 .224 .489 .348 26.0 27.6 22.9 .231 .424 .330 53.3
2023 Changeup 2.5 16 648 23.1 180 .180 .234 .218 32.0 28.3 21.9 .234 .331 .276 35.3
2023 Cutter 0.2 1 510 18.2 105 .220 .352 .311 24.3 23.8 21.7 .229 .367 .309 26.9
2023 Sinker 0.7 2 338 12.1 120 .261 .378 .310 16.3 20.0 25.5 .291 .442 .343 48.9
2023 Curveball -0.7 -2 308 11.0 65 .268 .411 .349 25.6 26.2 15.5 .274 .424 .354 51.3
2023 Slider -1.1 -2 155 5.5 48 .217 .391 .315 41.3 29.2 17.5 .211 .345 .257 21.9
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2024 Changeup 233 88.4 78 15.2 2:00 3:00 -60
2024 Curveball 89 82.2 66 15.3 7:45 7:15 30
2024 Cutter 287 90.3 61 10.1 1:00 12:15 45
2024 4-Seam Fastball 222 91.9 81 16.3 1:30 1:00 30
2024 Sinker 165 92.3 79 17.0 1:30 2:15 -45
2024 Slider 135 85.6 22 3.7 10:30 9:45 45
2023 Changeup 612 88.7 83 16.5 2:00 3:00 -60
2023 Curveball 307 82.1 67 15.8 7:45 7:15 30
2023 Cutter 508 90.8 63 11.7 1:00 12:15 45
2023 4-Seam Fastball 833 92.2 78 16.0 1:15 1:00 15
2023 Sinker 326 92.4 79 17.2 1:30 2:30 -60
2023 Slider 155 85.4 21 3.1 10:45 10:30 15
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 773 2,960 5 30 -23 -8 5
2020 124 473 1 9 -4 0 6
2021 664 2,425 6 12 -13 -9 -4
2022 802 3,070 1 38 -18 -9 12
2023 812 3,160 12 36 -18 -8 22
2024 300 1,142 2 7 -5 -3 1
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 2,962 47.5 68.8 82.9 27.6 64.1 44.5 58.6 47.2 22.4 7.5 74.8
2020 473 48.8 64.5 83.2 28.1 61.8 44.8 59.2 45.9 23.5 6.1 79.3
2021 2,425 51.3 70.3 86.0 26.9 57.9 44.6 62.2 49.2 20.6 7.8 80.3
2022 3,071 49.3 67.7 81.9 29.9 63.7 45.4 62.4 48.5 23.6 6.9 81.1
2023 2,803 45.5 68.3 81.3 32.9 57.1 46.1 61.0 49.1 27.0 6.4 79.9
2024 1,142 46.9 68.1 86.3 30.5 62.2 47.7 63.0 48.2 21.3 6.4 79.5
Player 12,876 48.2 68.5 83.3 29.5 60.9 45.4 61.1 48.3 23.3 7.0 79.0
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.0 28.5 57.8 42.6 61.0 47.2 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA 		xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit% 		K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate 		FB
Velo 		FB
Spin 		CB
Spin 		Extension
2019 18 16 10 9 35 1 13 17 20 27 63 25 32 29 81 72 60
2020 58 44 32 28 81 23 11 47 30 50 95 28 53 29 74 63 55
2021 34 15 30 48 41 19 72 46 41 21 81 12 38 23 71 62 49
2022 60 59 46 37 68 2 31 50 62 44 52 29 54 28 69 58 34
2023 51 49 60 67 46 14 51 34 30 69 34 58 88 22 69 63 28
2024 12 16 5 4 43 35 6 9 32 33 77 15 70 20 71 68 18
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted
Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.5 29 30.7 -2 14 21 16 55.2
2020 21.7 5 5.0 0 2 4 2 40.0
2021 23.8 21 19.3 2 13 12 9 42.9
2022 23.2 21 21.3 0 4 16 10 47.6
2023 23.4 24 19.9 4 10 19 7 29.2
2024 23.4 11 12.1 -1 3 10 4 36.4
Player 23.1 111 108.4 3 46 82 48 43.2
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted
Year HR
2019 29 39 25 28 29 30 33 30 25 21 26 35 38 32 29 29 28 26 33 31 33 36 35 38 29 27 28 36 40 28 24
2020 5 4 6 6 4 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 6 4 4
2021 21 22 19 21 19 16 20 23 15 15 16 24 22 17 17 21 18 18 21 19 21 19 26 21 17 16 23 19 22 16 17
2022 21 20 17 22 24 20 25 17 20 17 18 22 23 22 24 25 19 19 22 23 24 21 26 23 17 17 24 23 24 21 19
2023 24 18 17 20 21 19 22 15 19 15 20 25 20 15 22 22 23 16 20 22 17 21 27 24 20 14 23 21 23 19 18
2024 11 11 11 12 10 14 15 12 9 9 13 14 12 12 13 11 13 11 13 15 12 11 15 13 13 12 13 14 12 11 8
Player 111 114 95 109 107 105 121 103 92 81 97 125 120 102 109 114 105 95 115 115 113 113 135 125 100 90 116 119 127 99 90
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2019 2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-   2024 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 91.3 91.6 0.3 ↑ 91.5 -0.1 ↓ 92.1 0.6 ↑ 91.8 -0.3 ↓ 91.3 -0.5 ↓
Offspeed Velocity 86.0 87.5 1.5 ↑ 87.2 -0.3 ↓ 88.6 1.4 ↑ 88.7 0.1 ↑ 88.4 -0.3 ↓
Breaking Velocity 80.6 81.2 0.6 ↑ 81.3 0.1 ↑ 82.2 0.9 ↑ 83.2 1.0 ↑ 84.2 1.0 ↑
Exit Velocity 89.9 88.5 -1.4 ↓ 89.0 0.5 ↑ 88.5 -0.5 ↓ 89.6 1.1 ↑ 90.5 0.9 ↑
Launch Angle 12.5 13.3 0.8 ↑ 12.9 -0.4 ↓ 14.0 1.1 ↑ 11.8 -2.2 ↓ 11.0 -0.8 ↓
Barrel % 9.5 11.1 1.6 ↑ 6.3 -4.8 ↓ 8.3 2.0 ↑ 7.8 -0.5 ↓ 10.7 2.9 ↑
Hard Hit % 40.0 40.0 0.0 39.6 -0.4 ↓ 36.5 -3.1 ↓ 41.8 5.3 ↑ 40.9 -0.9 ↓
LA Sweet-Spot % 33.2 36.7 3.5 ↑ 33.1 -3.6 ↓ 31.2 -1.9 ↓ 35.1 3.9 ↑ 33.5 -1.6 ↓
xBA .271 .245 -0.026 ↓ .270 0.025 ↑ .230 -0.040 ↓ .244 0.014 ↑ .263 0.019 ↑
BA .260 .218 -0.042 ↓ .266 0.048 ↑ .226 -0.040 ↓ .222 -0.004 ↓ .242 0.020 ↑
xwOBA .344 .304 -0.040 ↓ .324 0.020 ↑ .296 -0.028 ↓ .313 0.017 ↑ .340 0.027 ↑
wOBA .318 .275 -0.043 ↓ .319 0.044 ↑ .289 -0.030 ↓ .294 0.005 ↑ .311 0.017 ↑
xSLG .493 .436 -0.057 ↓ .432 -0.004 ↓ .383 -0.049 ↓ .389 0.006 ↑ .470 0.081 ↑
SLG .447 .395 -0.052 ↓ .433 0.038 ↑ .371 -0.062 ↓ .371 0.000 .426 0.055 ↑
K% 20.3 23.2 2.9 ↑ 19.5 -3.7 ↓ 22.0 2.5 ↑ 25.9 3.9 ↑ 21.0 -4.9 ↓
BB% 7.3 4.0 -3.3 ↓ 6.1 2.1 ↑ 7.6 1.5 ↑ 9.4 1.8 ↑ 6.3 -3.1 ↓
Swing % 47.2 45.9 -1.3 ↓ 49.2 3.3 ↑ 48.5 -0.7 ↓ 49.1 0.6 ↑ 48.2 -0.9 ↓
Whiff% 22.4 23.5 1.1 ↑ 20.6 -2.9 ↓ 23.6 3.0 ↑ 27.0 3.4 ↑ 21.3 -5.7 ↓
In Zone % 47.5 48.8 1.3 ↑ 51.3 2.5 ↑ 49.3 -2.0 ↓ 45.5 -3.8 ↓ 46.9 1.4 ↑
Out of Zone % 52.5 51.2 -1.3 ↓ 48.7 -2.5 ↓ 50.7 2.0 ↑ 54.5 3.8 ↑ 53.1 -1.4 ↓
Out of Zone Swing % 27.6 28.1 0.5 ↑ 26.9 -1.2 ↓ 29.9 3.0 ↑ 32.9 3.0 ↑ 30.5 -2.4 ↓
First Pitch Swing % 28.4 25.6 -2.8 ↓ 32.9 7.3 ↑ 31.6 -1.3 ↓ 31.6 0.0 36.0 4.4 ↑
First Pitch Strike % 58.6 59.2 0.6 ↑ 62.2 3.0 ↑ 62.4 0.2 ↑ 61.0 -1.4 ↓ 63.0 2.0 ↑
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2019 Shifts 748 .324 408 78 19.1 340 171 50.3
2020 Shifts 124 .275 70 16 22.9 54 31 57.4
2021 Shifts 664 .319 347 87 25.1 317 160 50.5
2022 Shifts 802 .289 432 80 18.5 370 187 50.5
2023 Shades 721 .294 360 8 2.2 361 242 67.0
2024 Shades 300 .311 140 5 3.6 160 93 58.1
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2019 903 18.5 6.5% 1.4% 475 25.7 0.0% 16.6%
2020 175 18.5 1.1% 1.7% 50 23.7 0.0% 8.0%
2021 738 17.7 11.1% 1.6% 324 24.7 0.0% 15.4%
2022 934 17.0 24.4% 2.2% 429 22.8 0.2% 8.6%
2023 818 15.1 47.6% 0.0% 354 19.9 0.8% 0.6%
2024 353 15.1 48.4% 0.0% 136 19.0 1.5% 0.7%

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Pitch Distribution

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