P | Cleveland Guardians
Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 0" 225 lbs | Age: 25
Draft: 2022 | Rd. 2, No. 54, Cleveland Guardians | Florida State
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2025 3 1 2.72 7 7 0 39.2 38 1.31
2026 7 4 2.67 16 16 0 94.1 101 1.05
2 Seasons 10 5 2.69 23 23 0 134 139 1.13
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2025 7 3-1 2.72 39.2 38 1.31
2026 16 7-4 2.67 94.1 101 1.05
2 Seasons 23 10-5 2.69 134 139 1.13
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2025 24 625 121 7 5.8 4.2 88.1 113.0 9.8 33.1 .237 .368 .315 .274 .339 29.8 23.0 3.6 2.72 3.07
2026 25 1461 241 15 6.2 4.0 87.8 110.4 14.0 34.4 .228 .348 .269 .282 .352 35.3 27.2 7.8 2.67 3.22
Player 2086 362 22 6.1 4.1 87.9 113.0 12.6 34.0 .230 .354 .283 .280 .348 33.4 25.9 6.5
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .408 .316 .316 .369 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Messick relies on 6 pitches.
Four Seamer
(31.2%) ,
Changeup
(24.6%) ,
Sinker
(17.5%) ,
Curveball
(11.3%) ,
Cutter
(7.9%) ,
Slider
(7.4%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2025 48.8 51.2 20.7 25.6 5.0 45.5 31.4 23.1 27.3 16.5 5.0 18.2 14.9 18.2
2026 44.4 55.6 22.8 23.7 9.1 42.3 29.0 28.6 22.8 14.1 7.5 19.5 14.9 21.2
Player 45.9 54.1 22.1 24.3 7.7 43.4 29.8 26.8 24.3 14.9 6.6 19.1 14.9 20.2
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.2 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.8 16.8 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2025 4.1 41.3 24.8 19.8 4.1 5.8 4.2
2026 6.6 30.3 24.9 27.0 5.0 6.2 4.0
Player 5.8 34.0 24.9 24.6 4.7 6.1 4.1
MLB 4.0 32.3 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Curveball CLE L 165 79.0 49.9 -4.3 14.0GLV 3.5 -5.8 -4.2 14.0GLV 5.9
2026 Changeup CLE L 360 85.6 35.8 2.0 14.8ARM 0.4 1.6 3.0 14.8ARM 0.8
2026 4-Seam Fastball CLE L 456 93.9 14.3 1.1 5.4ARM -2.9 16.8 1.0 5.4ARM -2.6
2026 Cutter CLE L 116 90.7 22.7 2.2 2.0GLV 0.1 10.3 2.8 2.0GLV -0.1
2026 Slider CLE L 108 87.0 31.4 -3.2 5.9GLV 1.8 4.5 -3.1 5.9GLV 1.4
2026 Sinker CLE L 256 92.4 21.6 -2.7 13.1ARM -2.3 10.3 -2.9 13.1ARM -2.4
2025 Sinker CLE L 84 91.4 22.1 -2.8 12.4ARM -2.7 10.5 -3.0 12.4ARM -3.0
2025 Changeup CLE L 146 84.6 35.5 2.2 14.6ARM 0.3 2.7 2.5 14.6ARM 0.4
2025 Curveball CLE L 79 77.1 52.0 -4.4 14.5GLV 3.7 -5.9 -3.8 14.5GLV 6.7
2025 4-Seam Fastball CLE L 225 92.8 15.1 0.8 4.2ARM -3.6 16.7 0.8 4.2ARM -3.9
2025 Slider CLE L 91 86.3 31.2 -3.6 7.0GLV 2.6 5.1 -3.0 7.0GLV 3.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 3.0 14 456 31.2 119 .138 .229 .197 31.0 41.2 29.9 .157 .246 .214 36.1
2026 Changeup 0.0 0 360 24.6 106 .235 .327 .273 39.6 39.6 24.3 .208 .260 .235 27.6
2026 Sinker 3.5 9 256 17.5 73 .200 .308 .265 11.2 4.1 10.0 .362 .515 .410 50.8
2026 Curveball 0.1 0 165 11.3 25 .304 .391 .336 8.3 0.0 0.0 .209 .295 .256 8.7
2026 Cutter -2.2 -3 116 7.9 21 .316 .789 .481 32.7 23.8 50.0 .203 .481 .329 35.7
2026 Slider -0.8 -1 108 7.4 26 .250 .625 .388 24.5 7.7 5.9 .300 .656 .427 36.4
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.7 2 225 36.0 43 .302 .488 .338 29.0 34.9 27.3 .241 .355 .255 39.3
2025 Changeup -1.2 -2 146 23.4 48 .319 .340 .303 31.2 27.1 19.1 .204 .289 .223 23.5
2025 Slider 2.1 2 91 14.6 26 .160 .280 .208 22.0 15.4 12.1 .176 .324 .230 23.8
2025 Sinker -2.5 -2 84 13.4 28 .500 .769 .559 14.3 3.6 6.7 .375 .639 .449 28.0
2025 Curveball 3.5 3 79 12.6 20 .056 .056 .160 25.0 25.0 25.0 .197 .270 .251 38.5
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 339 85.6 76 15.7 10:15 9:00 75
2026 Curveball 164 79.0 56 17.0 4:30 4:00 30
2026 Cutter 115 90.7 63 9.9 11:45 12:30 -45
2026 4-Seam Fastball 454 93.9 93 17.2 11:00 11:15 -15
2026 Sinker 254 92.4 91 16.7 10:45 10:15 30
2026 Slider 108 87.0 41 7.6 1:15 2:00 -45
2025 Changeup 144 84.6 77 15.4 10:15 9:15 60
2025 Curveball 79 77.1 57 17.4 4:30 4:00 30
2025 4-Seam Fastball 225 92.8 93 16.6 11:15 11:30 -15
2025 Sinker 84 91.4 87 16.1 11:00 10:15 45
2025 Slider 91 86.3 46 8.5 1:00 2:00 -60
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2025 165 625 0 8 -4 -2 2
2026 370 1,461 22 14 -10 -6 19
Player 535 2,086 21 22 -14 21 22
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2025 625 52.3 63.0 81.6 27.5 54.9 44.6 72.1 46.1 26.0 7.7 58.3
2026 1,461 45.4 67.3 79.4 32.4 58.9 41.9 59.7 48.3 28.1 7.5 76.1
Player 2,086 47.5 65.9 80.1 31.1 57.9 42.7 63.5 47.6 27.5 7.5 70.7
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.5 57.9 42.7 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2025 21 9 9 50
2026 99 99 38 46 78 30 13 11 68 72 72 80 61 69 71 59 54
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2025 22.40 4 4.1 0 1 1 3 75.0
2026 23.78 9 9.4 0 5 5 5 55.6
Player 23.36 13 13.5 -1 6 6 8 61.5
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2025 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4
2026 9 8 8 10 10 10 10 7 12 10 9 11 7 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 7 9 10 11 8 8 9 10 12 9 9
Player 13 12 12 14 14 14 14 11 16 14 13 16 10 15 14 14 13 14 13 16 11 13 14 15 12 12 13 15 16 13 13
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025
Results
BA .207 -.082 .289
xBA .228 -.009 .237
OBP .270 -.045 .315
xOBP .290 +.026 .264
SLG .343 -.066 .409
xSLG .348 -.020 .368
ISO .136 +.017 .119
xISO .120 -.011 .131
BABIP .264 -.095 .359
wOBA .269 -.046 .315
xwOBA .282 +.008 .274
wOBAcon .333 -.062 .395
xwOBAcon .352 +.013 .339
BACON .292 -.088 .380
xBACON .324 +.013 .311
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 35.3 +5.5 29.8
Avg Exit Velocity 87.8 -0.3 88.1
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 34.4 +1.3 33.1
Barrel % 6.2 +0.4 5.8
Avg Launch Angle 14.0 +4.2 9.8
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.2 +0.2 72.0
Attack Angle +1°
Ideal Attack Angle % 49.9 +2.7 47.2
Attack Direction -2°
Swing Path - Tilt 33° 32°
Swing Length 7.3 0.0 7.3
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 93.0 +0.6 92.4
Breaking Velocity 82.2 +0.1 82.1
Offspeed Velocity 85.6 +1.0 84.6
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 15 +8 7
Popup % 9.1 +4.1 5.0
Flyball % 22.8 +2.1 20.7
Line Drive % 23.7 -1.9 25.6
Groundball % 44.4 -4.4 48.8
Pull % 42.3 -3.2 45.5
Straight Away % 29.0 -2.4 31.4
Opposite Field % 28.6 +5.5 23.1
Weak Contact % 6.6 +2.5 4.1
Pull Airball % 19.5 +1.3 18.2
Topped Contact % 30.3 -11.0 41.3
Under Contact % 24.9 +0.1 24.8
Flare/Burner Contact % 27.0 +7.2 19.8
Solid Contact % 5.0 +0.9 4.1
HR/FB % 16.4 +0.4 16.0
Popups 22 +16 6
Flyballs 55 +30 25
Line Drives 57 +26 31
Groundballs 107 +48 59
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 45.4 -6.9 52.3
Out of Zone % 54.6 +6.9 47.7
Edge % 41.9 -2.7 44.6
Zone Swing % 67.3 +4.3 63.0
Out of Zone Swing % 32.4 +4.9 27.5
In Zone Contact % 79.4 -2.2 81.6
Out of Zone Contact % 58.9 +4.0 54.9
Whiff % 28.1 +2.1 26.0
First Strike % 59.7 -12.4 72.1
First Pitch Swing % 33.3 -0.6 33.9
Swing % 48.3 +2.2 46.1
Meatball Swing % 76.1 +17.8 58.3
Meatball % 7.5 -0.2 7.7
Zone Swing & Miss % 20.6 +2.2 18.4
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 41.1 -4.0 45.1
In Zone 664 +337 327
Out of Zone 797 +499 298
Edge 612 +333 279
In Zone Swings 447 +241 206
Out of Zone Swings 258 +176 82
In Zone Swing & Misses 92 +54 38
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 106 +69 37
Basic
Pitches 1,461 +836 625
PA 372 +207 165
AB 338 +179 159
Hits 70 +24 46
Singles 45 +10 35
Doubles 13 +6 7
Triples 3 +3 0
Home Runs 9 +5 4
Walks 29 +23 6
Strikeouts 101 +63 38
K% 27.2 +4.2 23.0
BB% 7.8 +4.2 3.6
HBP 1 +1 0
Batted Balls 241 +120 121
Fastball Percent 56.7 +7.3 49.4
Offspeed Percent 24.6 +1.2 23.4
Breaking Percent 18.7 -8.5 27.2
Number of Fastballs 828 +519 309
Number of Offspeed 360 +214 146
Number of Breaking 273 +103 170
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2025 Shades 165 .315 121 22 18.2 44 17 38.6
2026 Shades 370 .269 265 4 1.5 105 38 36.2
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2025 172 13.4 73.8% 0.0% 101 18.0 3.0% 0.0%
2026 412 13.8 72.1% 1.5% 187 18.0 5.9% 1.1%

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Pitch Distribution