Mitch Keller
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 220LBS | Age: 27
Draft: 2014 | Rd: 2, #64, Pittsburgh Pirates | Xavier (IA) HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 5 11 6.17 23 23 0 100.2 92 1.79
2022 5 12 3.91 31 29 0 159 138 1.40
2023 13 9 4.21 32 32 0 194.1 210 1.25
5 Seasons 25 38 4.71 102 100 0 523.2 521 1.45
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 23 5-11 6.17 100.2 92 1.79
2022 31 5-12 3.91 159 138 1.40
2023 32 13-9 4.21 194.1 210 1.25
5 Seasons 102 25-38 4.71 523.2 521 1.45
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 23 932 145 8 5.5 3.5 87.2 115.7 10.9 33.8 .236 .346 .392 .284 .383 35.3 28.6 7.0 7.13 3.51
2020 24 385 52 6 11.5 6.9 88.5 114.6 14.3 19.2 .203 .467 .303 .371 .364 42.3 18.4 20.7 2.91 6.12
2021 25 1858 322 22 6.8 4.7 91.5 110.2 11.5 40.1 .289 .452 .379 .359 .405 47.5 19.6 10.4 6.17 5.65
2022 26 2661 477 34 7.1 4.9 87.9 112.7 7.8 33.3 .253 .383 .323 .318 .354 37.3 20.1 8.7 3.91 4.23
2023 27 3119 548 47 8.6 5.7 87.7 115.1 10.3 36.5 .251 .404 .310 .315 .389 35.6 25.5 6.7 4.21 4.18
Player 8955 1544 117 7.6 5.1 88.5 115.7 10.0 35.4 .256 .404 .336 .325 .380 38.9 22.7 8.6
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.3 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Keller relies on 6 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(26.1%) ,
Cutter
(24.2%) ,
Sinker
(22.7%) ,
Sweeper
(16.1%) ,
Curveball
(8%) ,
Changeup
(2.9%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 40.7 20.0 35.2 4.1 37.9 32.4 29.7 4.8 29.0 17.9 22.1 2.1 5.5 3.5
2020 42.3 36.5 13.5 7.7 38.5 36.5 25.0 5.8 36.5 30.8 7.7 7.7 11.5 6.9
2021 41.0 24.8 29.8 4.3 29.5 38.8 31.7 4.3 27.0 21.7 32.6 7.5 6.8 4.7
2022 49.9 19.3 25.8 5.0 33.1 40.0 26.8 7.1 36.9 19.5 24.3 4.4 7.1 4.9
2023 44.2 25.5 25.0 5.3 34.7 36.5 28.8 5.1 32.1 22.4 27.7 4.0 8.6 5.7
Player 44.9 23.3 26.8 5.0 33.5 37.7 28.8 5.6 32.4 21.2 26.5 4.8 7.6 5.1
MLB 44.6 23.5 24.9 7.0 37.0 37.6 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 Sinker PIT R 708 93.9 21.9 -0.1 0 15.6 0.6 4
2023 Cutter PIT R 756 89.7 28.3 -2.2 -8 3.6 0.9 36
2023 4-Seamer PIT R 814 95.2 15.2 -0.8 -5 9.0 1.5 20
2023 Curveball PIT R 249 78.0 59.9 4.2 7 12.5 3.5 39
2023 Sweeper PIT R 502 82.8 40.5 1.3 3 18.5 4.4 32
2023 Changeup PIT R 90 90.7 29.8 2.0 7 15.5 0.6 4
2022 Sweeper PIT R 431 83.2 42.0 3.2 8 17.4 3.8 28
2022 Slider PIT R 168 87.1 36.2 2.5 7 4.9 0.5 12
2022 4-Seamer PIT R 887 95.5 15.2 -1.3 -9 7.3 -0.1 -1
2022 Curveball PIT R 411 78.7 60.0 4.9 9 11.2 2.6 31
2022 Sinker PIT R 591 94.4 19.7 -1.1 -5 14.8 0.0 0
2022 Changeup PIT R 173 91.2 28.1 1.0 4 14.8 -0.1 -1
2021 Cutter PIT R 446 86.1 36.2 -6.8 -23 3.2 0.1 2
2021 Curveball PIT R 270 78.5 59.3 4.2 8 9.5 1.5 19
2021 4-Seamer PIT R 1,054 93.8 15.3 -0.7 -4 6.6 -0.3 -5
2021 Changeup PIT R 88 89.8 25.3 -2.1 -8 13.8 -0.3 -2
2020 Cutter PIT R 84 86.9 31.6 -3.2 -11 4.3 1.1 33
2020 Changeup PIT R 12 88.8 26.5 -1.0 -4 13.2 -0.4 -3
2020 Curveball PIT R 75 78.1 59.2 2.8 5 7.9 -0.2 -3
2020 4-Seamer PIT R 214 93.9 14.3 0.2 1 7.1 0.4 6
2019 Curveball PIT R 120 81.1 56.9 4.7 9 9.2 2.3 34
2019 Changeup PIT R 28 91.0 23.7 -2.8 -11 14.1 0.4 3
2019 Cutter PIT R 157 87.6 35.9 -7.1 -25 4.1 2.1 105
2019 4-Seamer PIT R 448 95.4 14.5 0.0 0 6.8 -0.6 -9
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 4-Seamer 0.6 5 814 26.1 215 .176 .351 .279 30.2 43.3 25.8 .177 .343 .280 41.2
2023 Cutter -0.6 -4 756 24.2 191 .318 .506 .377 23.6 14.1 23.1 .308 .460 .354 30.7
2023 Sinker 1.6 11 708 22.7 199 .258 .346 .309 10.5 18.1 25.9 .236 .341 .285 35.1
2023 Sweeper -0.4 -2 502 16.1 147 .219 .321 .284 27.2 27.9 16.3 .258 .393 .307 30.2
2023 Curveball -1.3 -3 249 8.0 48 .273 .614 .382 23.5 22.9 17.2 .315 .654 .424 52.9
2023 Changeup -2.5 -2 90 2.9 25 .360 .600 .410 21.1 8.0 12.5 .368 .552 .395 43.5
2022 4-Seamer -0.1 -1 887 33.3 197 .267 .407 .346 24.1 25.4 17.2 .218 .362 .304 29.3
2022 Sinker 1.3 8 591 22.2 163 .307 .400 .366 13.0 6.7 20.4 .319 .428 .375 38.9
2022 Sweeper 1.0 4 431 16.2 126 .183 .252 .226 28.1 33.3 21.9 .220 .343 .270 38.2
2022 Curveball -2.3 -9 411 15.4 97 .275 .429 .337 20.0 18.6 15.1 .250 .379 .298 41.1
2022 Changeup -1.4 -3 173 6.5 52 .326 .457 .407 14.3 11.5 15.8 .256 .384 .325 47.5
2022 Slider -1.4 -2 168 6.3 51 .267 .467 .357 28.0 21.6 22.4 .267 .438 .350 38.2
2021 4-Seamer -0.3 -3 1,054 56.7 253 .313 .495 .390 17.7 19.8 17.6 .282 .473 .368 46.5
2021 Cutter -0.8 -4 446 24.0 133 .263 .398 .326 30.5 24.8 19.0 .238 .358 .301 47.7
2021 Curveball -4.7 -13 270 14.5 67 .452 .565 .465 12.8 11.9 9.8 .390 .542 .425 50.0
2021 Changeup -3.0 -3 88 4.7 16 .385 .462 .434 6.7 6.3 12.5 .373 .542 .450 50.0
2020 4-Seamer 0.7 1 214 55.6 50 .184 .395 .352 18.2 12.0 11.1 .246 .553 .421 53.1
2020 Cutter 1.5 1 84 21.8 17 .000 .000 .206 37.5 35.3 17.6 .052 .060 .241 16.7
2020 Curveball 0.3 0 75 19.5 18 .118 .471 .261 13.0 22.2 13.3 .214 .579 .345 30.8
2020 Changeup -6.3 -1 12 3.1 2 .000 .000 .350 0.0 0.0 0.0 .182 .184 .446 0.0
2019 4-Seamer -2.5 -11 448 48.1 98 .461 .719 .515 17.5 22.4 18.0 .314 .460 .352 42.0
2019 Cutter 0.6 1 157 16.8 47 .200 .289 .277 47.8 38.3 29.5 .187 .304 .229 29.6
2019 Curveball 3.3 4 120 12.9 35 .133 .133 .183 33.3 37.1 25.5 .155 .196 .215 11.1
2019 Changeup -10.5 -3 28 3.0 5 .800 1.000 .790 14.3 0.0 0.0 .343 .421 .328 60.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2023 Changeup 88 90.7 95 16.6 2:00 2:45 -45
2023 Curveball 247 78.0 93 21.8 7:15 7:15 0
2023 Cutter 750 89.7 38 6.5 11:45 10:30 75
2023 4-Seam Fastball 813 95.2 87 17.2 1:15 1:00 15
2023 Sinker 694 93.9 82 18.3 1:15 2:00 -45
2023 Sweeper 488 82.7 64 19.6 8:00 8:45 -45
2022 Changeup 167 91.1 96 16.0 2:00 2:30 -30
2022 Curveball 407 78.6 93 21.8 7:00 7:00 0
2022 4-Seam Fastball 867 95.5 84 16.2 1:15 1:00 15
2022 Sinker 588 94.4 82 18.6 1:00 2:00 -60
2022 Slider 160 87.1 32 6.5 8:45 8:15 30
2022 Sweeper 425 83.2 61 18.9 7:45 8:30 -45
2021 Changeup 87 89.9 96 16.5 1:30 2:00 -30
2021 Curveball 268 78.6 90 20.2 7:00 7:00 0
2021 Cutter 444 86.1 25 4.1 9:15 8:30 45
2021 4-Seam Fastball 1,051 93.8 85 16.6 1:00 12:45 15
2020 Changeup 11 89.0 95 16.3 1:30 2:00 -30
2020 Curveball 71 78.2 84 18.8 7:00 6:45 15
2020 Cutter 63 87.4 32 5.7 11:00 10:00 60
2020 4-Seam Fastball 191 94.0 91 17.7 1:00 12:45 15
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 185 753 -1 -3 -3 -2 -9
2020 87 385 4 6 -4 -4 2
2021 469 1,858 -6 11 -15 -12 -22
2022 686 2,661 13 8 -14 -10 -3
2023 825 3,119 4 26 -15 -11 4
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 932 51.5 73.5 82.5 29.9 47.7 41.4 63.4 51.7 24.9 9.4 85.9
2020 385 45.2 66.7 82.8 19.0 67.5 41.6 46.0 40.5 21.2 7.8 73.3
2021 1,858 50.2 66.6 86.3 25.5 58.5 41.4 56.0 46.1 20.2 7.3 80.0
2022 2,661 50.1 65.2 85.3 26.0 61.0 43.1 56.8 45.6 21.4 7.0 70.1
2023 3,119 53.8 65.5 81.6 27.1 62.1 42.4 63.8 47.8 23.2 8.8 71.6
Player 8,955 51.3 66.3 83.8 26.3 59.8 42.3 59.4 46.9 22.2 8.0 74.4
MLB 48.6 67.0 82.0 28.5 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2019 78 57 86 96 64 87 79 83 61 80 67 47 59 81 93 83 41
2020 11 82 19 3 7 46 10 47 20 18 1 15 2 60 66 61 27
2021 8 4 22 45 3 36 63 3 2 22 22 10 22 55 79 70 31
2022 33 29 47 64 20 13 52 63 56 29 38 17 13 71 88 64 48
2023 49 39 48 59 56 3 36 77 74 65 76 29 27 60 83 67 62
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.3 6 2.5 4 5 3 1 16.7
2020 24.1 4 3.9 0 0 5 1 25.0
2021 24.0 10 12.8 -3 5 12 3 30.0
2022 24.6 14 15.7 -2 8 16 3 21.4
2023 23.0 25 26.6 -2 4 20 12 48.0
Player 23.6 59 61.4 -2 22 56 20 33.9

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 6 3 1 6 4 1 4 2 3 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 2
2020 4 6 4 3 3 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 2 5 4 5 3 5 4 5 3 4 2 3 5 6 5 3
2021 10 14 11 15 15 14 15 13 9 9 10 18 10 9 14 15 10 12 12 15 12 11 17 15 9 11 17 15 13 12 11
2022 14 13 10 20 15 15 17 14 13 10 13 20 18 16 17 20 17 17 15 17 17 12 23 19 12 12 15 19 16 15 13
2023 25 25 22 27 29 27 28 27 23 24 24 24 29 26 28 31 29 25 29 30 26 22 34 30 25 23 28 28 30 26 19
Player 59 61 48 71 66 62 69 59 50 46 51 68 64 57 66 69 63 59 64 68 63 51 84 71 52 50 65 70 68 60 48
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2019 2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 93.4 91.9 -1.5 91.5 -0.4 95.1 3.6 92.9 -2.2
Offspeed Velocity 91.0 88.8 -2.2 89.8 1.0 91.2 1.4 90.7 -0.5
Breaking Velocity 81.1 78.1 -3.0 78.5 0.4 82.0 3.5 81.2 -0.8
Exit Velocity 87.2 88.5 1.3 91.5 3.0 87.9 -3.6 87.7 -0.2
Launch Angle 10.9 14.3 3.4 11.5 -2.8 7.8 -3.7 10.3 2.5
Barrel % 5.5 11.5 6.0 6.8 -4.7 7.1 0.3 8.6 1.5
Hard Hit % 35.3 42.3 7.0 47.5 5.2 37.3 -10.2 35.6 -1.7
Sweet Spot % 33.8 19.2 -14.6 40.1 20.9 33.3 -6.8 36.5 3.2
xBA .236 .203 -0.033 .289 0.086 .253 -0.036 .251 -0.002
BA .348 .132 -0.216 .322 0.190 .266 -0.056 .249 -0.017
xwOBA .284 .371 0.087 .359 -0.012 .318 -0.041 .315 -0.003
wOBA .392 .303 -0.089 .379 0.076 .323 -0.056 .310 -0.013
xSLG .346 .467 0.121 .452 -0.015 .383 -0.069 .404 0.021
SLG .546 .338 -0.208 .477 0.139 .388 -0.089 .404 0.016
K% 28.6 18.4 -10.2 19.6 1.2 20.1 0.5 25.5 5.4
BB% 7.0 20.7 13.7 10.4 -10.3 8.7 -1.7 6.7 -2.0
Swing % 51.7 40.5 -11.2 46.1 5.6 45.6 -0.5 47.8 2.2
Whiff% 24.9 21.2 -3.7 20.2 -1.0 21.4 1.2 23.2 1.8
In Zone % 51.5 45.2 -6.3 50.2 5.0 50.1 -0.1 53.8 3.7
Out of Zone % 48.5 54.8 6.3 49.8 -5.0 49.9 0.1 46.2 -3.7
Out of Zone Swing % 29.9 19.0 -10.9 25.5 6.5 26.0 0.5 27.1 1.1
First Pitch Swing % 31.7 18.4 -13.3 29.6 11.2 25.6 -4.0 31.8 6.2
First Pitch Strike % 63.4 46.0 -17.4 56.0 10.0 56.8 0.8 63.8 7.0
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2019 Shifts 205 .378 113 26 23.0 92 44 47.8
2020 Shifts 87 .303 36 21 58.3 51 33 64.7
2021 Shifts 445 .377 230 17 7.4 215 168 78.1
2022 Shifts 686 .323 357 59 16.5 329 202 61.4
2023 Shades 825 .310 395 29 7.3 430 225 52.3
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2019 181 15.8 38.1% 1.7% 122 22.8 0.0% 5.7%
2020 139 17.2 14.4% 0.7% 48 23.3 0.0% 14.6%
2021 481 16.9 28.1% 0.6% 342 22.4 0.0% 7.9%
2022 762 15.0 50.3% 1.4% 474 21.5 0.0% 4.2%
2023 878 12.1 91.5% 0.0% 493 17.7 2.4% 0.8%
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Pitch Distribution