Mitch Keller
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 220LBS | Age: 26

Draft: 2014 | Rd: 2, #64, Pittsburgh Pirates | Xavier (IA) HS

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2022 5 12 3.91 31 29 0 159.0 138 1.40
4 Seasons 12 29 5.00 70 68 0 329.1 311 1.57
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2022 31 5-12 3.91 159.0 138 1.40
4 Seasons 70 12-29 5.00 329.1 311 1.57

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 23 932 145 8 5.5 3.5 87.2 115.7 10.9 33.8 .237 .346 .392 .284 .383 35.3 28.6 7.0 7.13 3.51
2020 24 385 52 6 11.5 6.9 88.5 114.6 14.3 19.2 .203 .468 .303 .371 .365 42.3 18.4 20.7 2.91 6.12
2021 25 1858 322 22 6.8 4.7 91.5 110.2 11.5 40.1 .289 .452 .379 .359 .405 47.5 19.6 10.4 6.17 5.65
2022 26 2661 477 34 7.1 4.9 87.9 112.7 7.8 33.3 .253 .383 .323 .318 .354 37.3 20.1 8.7 3.91 4.23
Player 5836 996 70 7.0 4.8 89.0 115.7 9.8 34.8 .259 .405 .350 .330 .375 40.7 21.1 9.7
MLB 6.7 4.6 88.4 122.4 12.1 33.0 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 35.8 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Keller relies on 6 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(33.2%) ,
Sinker
(22.2%) ,
Sweeper
(16.2%) ,
Curveball
(15.4%) ,
Changeup
(6.6%) ,
Slider
(6.3%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 40.7 20.0 35.2 4.1 37.9 32.4 29.7 4.8 29.0 17.9 22.1 2.1 5.5 3.5
2020 42.3 36.5 13.5 7.7 38.5 36.5 25.0 5.8 36.5 30.8 7.7 7.7 11.5 6.9
2021 41.0 24.8 29.8 4.3 29.5 38.8 31.7 4.3 27.0 21.7 32.6 7.5 6.8 4.7
2022 49.9 19.3 25.8 5.0 33.1 40.0 26.8 7.1 36.9 19.5 24.3 4.4 7.1 4.9
Player 45.3 22.1 27.8 4.8 32.9 38.4 28.7 5.8 32.5 20.6 25.8 5.2 7.0 4.8
MLB 44.9 23.1 25.0 7.1 36.8 37.7 25.4 3.8 33.0 24.6 24.4 5.7 6.7 4.6
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2022 Sweeper PIT R 431 83.2 42.0 2.6 6 17.4 3.3 24
2022 Sinker PIT R 592 94.4 19.7 -1.0 -5 14.8 0.1 0
2022 Curveball PIT R 411 78.7 60.0 5.0 9 11.2 2.6 31
2022 Changeup PIT R 175 91.2 28.1 0.9 3 14.8 -0.1 -1
2022 4-Seamer PIT R 884 95.5 15.2 -1.3 -9 7.3 0.0 -1
2022 Slider PIT R 168 87.1 36.2 2.5 7 4.9 0.4 9
2021 Curveball PIT R 270 78.5 59.3 4.3 8 9.5 1.5 19
2021 Changeup PIT R 88 89.8 25.3 -2.1 -8 13.8 -0.3 -2
2021 4-Seamer PIT R 1,054 93.8 15.3 -0.7 -4 6.6 -0.3 -5
2021 Cutter PIT R 446 86.1 36.2 -6.8 -23 3.2 0.1 2
2020 4-Seamer PIT R 214 93.9 14.3 0.1 1 7.1 0.4 6
2020 Changeup PIT R 12 88.8 26.5 -1.0 -4 13.2 -0.4 -3
2020 Curveball PIT R 75 78.1 59.2 2.8 5 7.9 -0.2 -3
2020 Cutter PIT R 84 86.9 31.6 -3.1 -11 4.3 1.0 32
2019 Curveball PIT R 120 81.1 56.9 4.7 9 9.2 2.3 34
2019 4-Seamer PIT R 448 95.4 14.5 0.0 0 6.8 -0.6 -9
2019 Changeup PIT R 28 91.0 23.7 -2.8 -10 14.1 0.4 3
2019 Cutter PIT R 157 87.6 35.9 -7.1 -25 4.1 2.1 106
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2022 4-Seamer 0.1 1 884 33.2 196 .269 .409 .348 23.9 25.0 17.0 .219 .364 .306 29.3
2022 Sinker -1.4 -8 592 22.2 164 .305 .397 .364 13.4 7.3 21.4 .317 .425 .373 38.9
2022 Sweeper -1.0 -4 431 16.2 126 .183 .252 .226 28.1 33.3 21.9 .220 .343 .270 38.2
2022 Curveball 2.3 9 411 15.4 97 .275 .429 .337 20.0 18.6 15.1 .250 .379 .297 41.1
2022 Changeup 1.4 3 175 6.6 52 .326 .457 .407 14.1 11.5 15.8 .256 .385 .325 47.5
2022 Slider 1.4 2 168 6.3 51 .267 .467 .357 28.0 21.6 22.4 .267 .438 .350 38.2
2021 4-Seamer 0.3 3 1,054 56.7 253 .313 .495 .390 17.7 19.8 17.6 .282 .473 .368 46.5
2021 Cutter 0.7 3 446 24.0 133 .263 .398 .326 30.5 24.8 19.0 .238 .358 .301 47.7
2021 Curveball 4.7 13 270 14.5 67 .452 .565 .465 12.8 11.9 9.8 .390 .542 .425 50.0
2021 Changeup 3.0 3 88 4.7 16 .385 .462 .434 6.7 6.3 12.5 .373 .542 .450 50.0
2020 4-Seamer -0.7 -1 214 55.6 50 .184 .395 .352 18.2 12.0 11.1 .246 .554 .421 53.1
2020 Cutter -1.5 -1 84 21.8 17 .000 .000 .206 37.5 35.3 17.6 .052 .060 .241 16.7
2020 Curveball -0.3 0 75 19.5 18 .118 .471 .261 13.0 22.2 13.3 .214 .579 .345 30.8
2020 Changeup 6.3 1 12 3.1 2 .000 .000 .350 0.0 0.0 0.0 .182 .184 .446 0.0
2019 4-Seamer 2.5 11 448 48.1 98 .461 .719 .515 17.5 22.4 18.0 .314 .460 .352 42.0
2019 Cutter -0.6 -1 157 16.8 47 .200 .289 .277 47.8 38.3 29.5 .187 .304 .229 29.6
2019 Curveball -3.4 -4 120 12.9 35 .133 .133 .183 33.3 37.1 25.5 .155 .196 .215 11.1
2019 Changeup 10.5 3 28 3.0 5 .800 1.000 .790 14.3 0.0 0.0 .348 .427 .333 60.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 11 89.0 95 16.3 1:30 2:00 -30
2020 Curveball 71 78.2 84 18.8 7:00 6:45 15
2020 Cutter 63 87.4 32 5.7 11:00 10:00 60
2020 4-Seam Fastball 191 94.0 91 17.7 1:00 12:45 15
2021 Changeup 87 89.9 96 16.5 1:30 2:00 -30
2021 Curveball 268 78.6 90 20.2 7:00 7:00 0
2021 Cutter 444 86.1 25 4.1 9:15 8:30 45
2021 4-Seam Fastball 1,051 93.8 85 16.6 1:00 12:45 15
2022 Changeup 169 91.2 96 16.0 2:00 2:30 -30
2022 Curveball 407 78.6 93 21.8 7:00 7:00 0
2022 4-Seam Fastball 864 95.5 84 16.2 1:15 1:00 15
2022 Sinker 589 94.4 82 18.6 1:00 2:00 -60
2022 Slider 160 87.1 32 6.5 8:45 8:15 30
2022 Sweeper 425 83.2 61 18.9 7:45 8:30 -45
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 32 126 -3 -1 -1 0 -5
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 932 51.5 73.5 82.5 29.9 47.7 41.4 63.4 51.7 24.9 9.4 85.9
2020 385 45.2 66.7 82.8 19.0 67.5 41.6 46.0 40.5 21.2 7.8 73.3
2021 1,858 50.2 66.6 86.3 25.5 58.5 41.4 56.0 46.1 20.2 7.3 80.0
2022 2,661 50.1 65.2 85.3 26.0 61.0 43.1 56.8 45.6 21.4 7.0 70.1
Player 5,836 50.0 66.9 85.0 25.8 58.5 42.2 56.9 46.4 21.6 7.5 76.1
MLB 48.5 66.9 82.0 28.4 58.3 42.6 60.8 47.1 24.7 7.2 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2019 78 57 86 96 62 87 79 83 61 79 62 47 59 55 94 83 30
2020 11 82 19 3 6 46 10 47 20 18 1 15 2 36 69 61 27
2021 8 4 22 45 2 36 63 3 2 21 21 10 22 25 77 70 32
2022 33 29 47 64 21 13 52 63 56 29 34 17 13 74 87 64 48
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.3 6 2.8 3 4 3 1 16.7
2020 24.1 4 4.3 0 1 5 1 25.0
2021 24.0 10 13.0 -3 6 11 5 50.0
2022 24.6 14 15.8 -2 8 18 2 14.3
Player 24.1 34 35.9 -2 19 37 9 26.5

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 6 4 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 5 2 1 3 1 4 2 3 2 2 4 2 1 3 2 4 5 2 3 2 5
2020 4 5 4 3 5 2 0 6 4 5 3 4 2 2 3 5 3 6 3 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 4 4 6
2021 10 10 18 9 14 16 13 13 15 13 16 12 9 10 10 16 18 13 11 12 14 10 12 12 12 15 16 12 13 9 18
2022 14 17 22 14 17 21 16 13 16 11 20 13 10 13 12 17 16 17 13 15 19 17 16 15 16 17 21 12 13 12 23
Player 34 36 47 28 39 41 31 35 39 31 44 31 22 28 26 42 39 39 29 34 43 35 35 35 35 41 46 28 33 27 52
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 93.4 91.9 -1.5 91.5 -0.4 95.1 3.6
Offspeed Velocity 91 88.8 -2.2 89.8 1 91.2 1.4
Breaking Velocity 81.1 78.1 -3 78.5 0.4 82 3.5
Exit Velocity 87.2 88.5 1.3 91.5 3 87.9 -3.6
Launch Angle 10.9 14.3 3.4 11.5 -2.8 7.8 -3.7
Barrel % 5.5 11.5 6 6.8 -4.7 7.1 0.3
Hard Hit % 35.3 42.3 7 47.5 5.2 37.3 -10.2
Sweet Spot % 33.8 19.2 -14.6 40.1 20.9 33.3 -6.8
xBA .237 .203 -0.034 .289 0.086 .253 -0.036
BA .348 .132 -0.216 .322 0.19 .266 -0.056
xwOBA .284 .371 0.087 .359 -0.012 .318 -0.041
wOBA .392 .303 -0.089 .379 0.076 .323 -0.056
xSLG .346 .468 0.122 .452 -0.016 .383 -0.069
SLG .546 .338 -0.208 .477 0.139 .388 -0.089
K% 28.6 18.4 -10.2 19.6 1.2 20.1 0.5
BB% 7 20.7 13.7 10.2 -10.5 8.6 -1.6
Swing % 51.7 40.5 -11.2 46.1 5.6 45.6 -0.5
Whiff% 24.9 21.2 -3.7 20.2 -1 21.4 1.2
In Zone % 51.5 45.2 -6.3 50.2 5 50.1 -0.1
Out of Zone % 48.5 54.8 6.3 49.8 -5 49.9 0.1
Out of Zone Swing % 29.9 19 -10.9 25.5 6.5 26 0.5
First Pitch Swing % 31.7 18.4 -13.3 29.6 11.2 25.7 -3.9
First Pitch Strike % 63.4 46 -17.4 56.1 10.1 56.9 0.8
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2019 205 .378 113 19 16.8 92 25 27.2
2020 87 .303 36 21 58.3 51 26 51.0
2021 445 .377 230 15 6.5 215 143 66.5
2022 686 .323 357 54 15.1 329 148 45.0

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2019 182 15.8 37.9% 2.2% 125 23.1 0.0% 8.0%
2020 140 17.2 14.3% 1.4% 54 24.2 0.0% 24.1%
2021 481 16.9 28.1% 0.6% 353 22.5 0.0% 10.8%
2022 765 15.0 50.1% 1.8% 496 21.8 0.0% 8.1%
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Pitch Distribution