Back in 2017, Mercado was a Top 100 Draft prospect, offering a combination of stuff, feel and projection. The Rays took him in the second round that June and went over slot with a bonus of $2,132,400 to sign him away from his commitment to Stanford. He tore his UCL during his first full season of pro ball and had Tommy John surgery in 2019. That and the pandemic kept him off a competitive mound for nearly three years. He touched Triple-A in 2023 with the Rays before being acquired by the Phillies, who added him to their 40-man roster, that offseason. He got off to a very good start in Triple-A during his first season with his new organization.
Now 25 years old, the 6-foot-4 Mercado still has an interesting pitching mix that gives him the chance to start. He came out of the gate in 2024 with a fastball sitting around 94-95 mph and occasionally touching as high as 98 with good life up in the zone. He has both an upper-80s cutter, a pitch that tops out at 92 mph, and a low-80s curve that drops off the table, and both miss a ton of bats. He has a firm, upper-80s changeup he can fold in, but it’s a distant fourth pitch.
In the early stages with the Phillies, Mercado was doing a better job finding the strike zone than he did in his final year with the Rays, though as effective as his secondary offerings are, he doesn’t always land them consistently. He’s being stretched back out into a starter again after pitching almost exclusively in relief a year ago, with the chance to fulfill his potential as a big league starter seven years after being drafted.
Mercado continually impressed scouts during his senior year in the Southern California prep ranks with his combination of present stuff and feel as well as future projection, though some teams ultimately stayed away from the young right-hander due to his Stanford commitment. The Rays were not one of those teams, as they selected Mercado in the second round and then signed him with an above-slot bonus of $2,132,400. The young right-hander proved advanced in his professional debut, making eight strong starts in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League.
Tall and lanky with long levers, Mercado's frame is loaded with physical projection. While his fastball typically sits in the 88-92 mph range and reaches 94, he's expected to continue to add velocity as he adds strength, especially in his lower half. Mercado also shows feel for throwing a two-seamer that registers in the upper 80s that has late run and sinking action. He throws a slider with cutter action and a curve, with the latter a much better offering, buckling knees with sharp bite coming from a high three-quarters slot. He does a nice job of sprinkling in his changeup. He can throw strikes with all four offerings.
Mercado already has proved more polished than many of his Draft contemporaries, but the Rays are likely to move him along at a conservative pace as they tend to do with their top prep arms. He'll need time to develop physically and to refine his craft, but the final product could be that of a mid-rotation starter.
Mercado continually impressed scouts during his senior year in the Southern California prep ranks with his combination of present stuff and feel as well as future projection, though some teams ultimately stayed away from the young right-hander due to his Stanford commitment. The Rays were not one of those teams, as they selected Mercado in the second round and then signed him with an above-slot bonus of $2,132,400. The young right-hander proved advanced in his professional debut, making eight strong starts in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League.
Tall and lanky with long levers, Mercado's frame is loaded with physical projection. While his fastball typically sits in the 88-92 mph range and reaches 94, he's expected to continue to add velocity as he adds strength, especially in his lower half. Mercado also shows feel for throwing a two-seamer that registers in the upper 80s that has late run and sinking action. He throws a slider with cutter action and a curve, with the latter a much better offering, buckling knees with sharp bite coming from a high three-quarters slot. He does a nice job of sprinkling in his changeup. He can throw strikes with all four offerings.
Mercado already has proved more polished than many of his Draft contemporaries, but the Rays are likely to move him along at a conservative pace as they tend to do with their top prep arms. He'll need time to develop physically and to refine his craft, but the final product could be that of a mid-rotation starter.
How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity,
which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate.
These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and
different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity
requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have
more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement
by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within
+/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2024
24.9
9
8.3
1
2
5
4
44.4
Player
24.9
9
8.3
1
2
5
4
44.4
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2024
9
9
6
9
8
8
8
10
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
10
8
10
9
8
10
8
8
8
6
6
10
8
8
Player
9
9
6
9
8
8
8
10
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
10
8
10
9
8
10
8
8
8
6
6
10
8
8
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
PHI 
