Justin Steele
P | Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 2" 205LBS | Age: 28
Draft: 2014 | Rd: 5, #139, Chicago Cubs | George County (MS) HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 4 4 4.26 20 9 0 57 59 1.35
2022 4 7 3.18 24 24 0 119 126 1.35
2023 16 5 3.00 29 29 0 168 170 1.17
3 Seasons 24 16 3.27 73 62 0 344 355 1.26
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 20 4-4 4.26 57 59 1.35
2022 24 4-7 3.18 119 126 1.35
2023 29 16-5 3.00 168 170 1.17
3 Seasons 73 24-16 3.27 344 355 1.26
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution

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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 Sweet
Spot %		 XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 25 964 157 9 5.7 3.6 87.9 112.1 8.3 29.3 .226 .369 .332 .309 .351 35.0 23.8 10.9 4.26 4.03
2022 26 2032 332 13 3.9 2.5 87.1 112.1 7.5 31.0 .237 .336 .296 .295 .344 33.7 24.6 9.8 3.18 3.59
2023 27 2588 482 25 5.2 3.6 87.7 111.1 9.4 33.6 .246 .359 .288 .288 .355 36.1 24.5 5.0 3.00 3.44
Player 5584 971 47 4.8 3.2 87.5 112.1 8.6 32.0 .240 .352 .298 .294 .350 35.1 24.4 7.7
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .316 .369 36.3 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Steele relies on 5 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(62.6%) ,
Slider
(33.8%) ,
Sinker
(1.8%) ,
Changeup
(1.1%) ,
Curveball
(0.7%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 52.2 23.6 19.7 4.5 40.1 35.7 24.2 5.1 41.4 22.3 21.0 4.5 5.7 3.6
2022 51.8 20.5 24.1 3.6 38.0 38.3 23.8 4.8 36.1 20.8 28.6 4.8 3.9 2.5
2023 50.0 19.7 24.3 6.0 41.1 34.6 24.3 5.4 36.5 20.7 27.8 4.4 5.2 3.6
Player 51.0 20.6 23.5 4.9 39.9 36.0 24.1 5.1 37.2 21.0 27.0 4.5 4.8 3.2
MLB 44.7 23.4 24.9 7.0 37.0 37.6 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 4-Seamer CHC L 1,557 91.8 21.5 -5.3 -33 1.3 -7.6 -120
2023 Sinker CHC L 44 92.2 20.8 -1.4 -6 8.1 -6.4 -44
2023 Curveball CHC L 18 80.7 52.2 0.2 0 10.6 3.0 39
2023 Slider CHC L 854 83.2 40.0 1.2 3 14.2 7.8 123
2023 Changeup CHC L 26 87.5 28.4 -1.3 -4 10.8 -3.3 -24
2022 Changeup CHC L 42 87.8 24.2 -4.6 -16 10.8 -3.2 -23
2022 Sinker CHC L 158 91.7 20.3 -1.7 -8 9.2 -4.9 -35
2022 4-Seamer CHC L 1,147 92.2 19.4 -3.9 -25 1.6 -8.2 -124
2022 Curveball CHC L 53 78.4 53.0 -2.8 -5 11.9 3.6 43
2022 Slider CHC L 632 82.0 43.3 3.2 8 14.0 6.7 91
2021 Changeup CHC L 20 87.5 25.3 -3.7 -13 10.5 -3.5 -25
2021 Sinker CHC L 197 92.9 20.2 -1.4 -6 11.8 -2.9 -20
2021 4-Seamer CHC L 438 93.2 16.0 -0.9 -6 2.1 -5.1 -71
2021 Curveball CHC L 150 79.1 52.8 -1.4 -3 12.1 3.8 45
2021 Slider CHC L 159 83.0 42.5 3.8 10 12.7 6.8 116
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 4-Seamer 1.0 16 1,620 62.6 413 .270 .377 .322 20.6 18.9 19.3 .274 .392 .322 35.1
2023 Slider 0.2 1 876 33.8 257 .222 .355 .275 31.1 33.9 21.3 .205 .316 .241 37.7
2023 Sinker 1.5 1 46 1.8 13 .250 .333 .288 17.4 15.4 18.2 .301 .349 .319 40.0
2023 Changeup -0.4 0 28 1.1 5 .400 .400 .360 10.0 0.0 0.0 .150 .167 .140 20.0
2023 Curveball 2.0 0 18 0.7 5 .000 .000 .000 33.3 40.0 15.4 .225 .265 .219 66.7
2022 4-Seamer -0.3 -4 1,147 56.4 274 .312 .407 .389 20.3 16.4 17.0 .274 .361 .339 33.5
2022 Slider 1.4 9 632 31.1 172 .138 .219 .183 32.1 42.4 24.0 .176 .264 .224 30.3
2022 Sinker -0.7 -1 158 7.8 52 .327 .490 .380 16.5 7.7 26.7 .286 .495 .355 42.2
2022 Curveball 0.5 0 53 2.6 7 .000 .000 .129 45.5 57.1 33.3 .100 .146 .105 33.3
2022 Changeup 0.7 0 42 2.1 7 .143 .143 .129 20.0 0.0 0.0 .179 .237 .180 28.6
2021 4-Seamer 0.4 2 438 45.4 122 .227 .443 .381 29.6 23.8 25.9 .198 .310 .314 20.3
2021 Sinker -2.1 -4 197 20.4 47 .304 .478 .364 18.7 8.5 16.0 .303 .432 .327 50.0
2021 Slider 0.2 0 159 16.5 38 .182 .394 .301 29.7 28.9 13.3 .233 .424 .332 45.5
2021 Curveball 1.8 3 150 15.6 30 .200 .367 .240 34.0 46.7 35.9 .178 .322 .210 50.0
2021 Changeup 1.5 0 20 2.1 9 .222 .556 .322 18.2 11.1 50.0 .278 .635 .382 25.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2023 Changeup 26 87.5 78 13.0 11:15 10:00 75
2023 Curveball 18 80.7 75 17.1 4:30 4:45 -15
2023 4-Seam Fastball 1,546 91.8 59 10.2 11:30 12:15 -45
2023 Sinker 42 92.2 65 13.7 11:30 10:45 45
2023 Slider 844 83.2 51 15.3 4:15 3:15 60
2022 Changeup 40 87.7 88 15.5 11:00 10:15 45
2022 Curveball 53 78.4 69 16.6 4:45 4:15 30
2022 4-Seam Fastball 1,135 92.2 60 12.1 11:30 12:15 -45
2022 Sinker 152 91.7 65 15.2 11:30 10:45 45
2022 Slider 620 82.0 55 15.6 4:15 3:30 45
2021 Changeup 20 87.5 89 14.5 11:00 10:15 45
2021 Curveball 146 79.1 76 17.2 4:45 4:30 15
2021 4-Seam Fastball 435 93.1 71 15.0 11:15 11:45 -30
2021 Sinker 189 92.9 72 16.4 11:15 10:15 60
2021 Slider 156 83.0 55 14.3 4:00 3:45 15
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 246 964 4 11 -8 -6 1
2022 512 2,032 12 10 -11 -6 4
2023 693 2,588 11 15 1 -8 19
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 964 49.2 63.1 79.9 26.3 55.0 40.9 57.7 44.4 27.6 8.2 70.9
2022 2,032 51.6 66.9 83.3 26.3 55.2 41.8 59.8 47.3 24.0 7.6 81.8
2023 2,588 53.5 71.2 84.1 31.8 54.6 43.1 65.3 52.9 24.0 8.2 80.2
Player 5,584 52.1 68.4 83.2 28.8 54.9 42.3 62.0 49.4 24.6 8.0 79.1
MLB 48.6 67.0 82.0 28.5 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA 		xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit% 		K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate 		FB
Velo 		FB
Spin 		CB
Spin 		Extension
2021 54 67 65 65 32 87 82 71 78 52 19 63 32 42 94 69 55
2022 61 51 80 91 37 62 95 80 82 64 24 35 15 21 96 57 45
2023 79 44 76 86 78 34 86 78 70 59 93 33 81 17 86 34
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2021 23.7 12 9.1 3 3 7 4 33.3
2022 23.9 8 8.0 0 3 6 4 50.0
2023 22.5 13 12.4 1 4 12 5 38.5
Player 23.3 33 29.6 3 10 25 13 39.4

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2021 12 8 7 9 10 10 10 10 8 6 9 11 9 7 10 10 9 9 8 10 8 11 12 11 9 7 10 11 9 9 7
2022 8 9 7 8 8 9 10 7 5 6 7 9 10 8 7 10 10 8 7 6 9 8 10 8 8 7 7 8 9 8 7
2023 13 10 11 14 11 11 15 9 13 10 10 15 11 11 14 14 12 10 13 18 11 13 19 15 11 11 14 12 13 12 10
Player 33 27 25 31 29 30 35 26 26 22 26 35 30 26 31 34 31 27 28 34 28 32 41 34 28 25 31 31 31 29 24
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2021 2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 93.1 92.1 -1.0 ↓ 91.8 -0.3 ↓
Offspeed Velocity 87.5 87.8 0.3 ↑ 87.5 -0.3 ↓
Breaking Velocity 81.1 81.8 0.7 ↑ 83.2 1.4 ↑
Exit Velocity 87.9 87.1 -0.8 ↓ 87.7 0.6 ↑
Launch Angle 8.3 7.5 -0.8 ↓ 9.4 1.9 ↑
Barrel % 5.7 3.9 -1.8 ↓ 5.2 1.3 ↑
Hard Hit % 35.0 33.7 -1.3 ↓ 36.1 2.4 ↑
Sweet Spot % 29.3 31.0 1.7 ↑ 33.6 2.6 ↑
xBA .226 .237 0.011 ↑ .246 0.009 ↑
BA .233 .244 0.011 ↑ .250 0.006 ↑
xwOBA .309 .295 -0.014 ↓ .288 -0.007 ↓
wOBA .332 .296 -0.036 ↓ .288 -0.008 ↓
xSLG .369 .336 -0.033 ↓ .359 0.023 ↑
SLG .437 .339 -0.098 ↓ .364 0.025 ↑
K% 23.8 24.6 0.8 ↑ 24.5 -0.1 ↓
BB% 10.9 9.8 -1.1 ↓ 5.0 -4.8 ↓
Swing % 44.4 47.3 2.9 ↑ 52.9 5.6 ↑
Whiff% 27.6 24.0 -3.6 ↓ 24.0 0.0
In Zone % 49.2 51.6 2.4 ↑ 53.5 1.9 ↑
Out of Zone % 50.8 48.4 -2.4 ↓ 46.5 -1.9 ↓
Out of Zone Swing % 26.3 26.3 0.0 31.8 5.5 ↑
First Pitch Swing % 29.4 30.7 1.3 ↑ 35.2 4.5 ↑
First Pitch Strike % 57.7 59.8 2.1 ↑ 65.3 5.5 ↑
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 223 .333 172 32 18.6 51 23 45.1
2022 Shifts 511 .295 397 121 30.5 114 54 47.4
2023 Shades 669 .290 537 42 7.8 132 36 27.3
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 249 16.3 32.1% 0.8% 204 22.2 0.0% 6.9%
2022 563 16.6 29.8% 1.4% 359 21.2 0.8% 5.0%
2023 667 14.0 63.9% 0.3% 365 18.1 8.5% 0.0%
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Pitch Distribution

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