After going sixth overall in the 2021 Draft, Lawlar zoomed through the D-backs system in his first two full seasons. He earned most of his 2023 accolades in the Texas League, where he picked up Top Prospect and All-Star honors and a spot in the All-Star Futures Game. The Texas native made his Major League debut for Arizona that summer at 21 years old, and though he went just 4-for-31, Lawlar cracked the club's postseason rosters and walked in his lone World Series plate appearance. Thumb and hamstring injuries limited him to only 23 Minor League games in 2024, and after not appearing in The Show, he made up for the lost at-bats with Licey during winter ball in the Dominican Republic.
The missed time only gave evaluators a 58-plate-appearance sample in Lawlar's return to Triple-A, but some of his strengths remained, namely his above-average ability to focus on pitches inside the zone. The Pacific Coast League's (and Reno's, specifically) hitter-friendly environs flattered his .592 slugging percentage as his exit velocities didn't meet those standards; his xSLG was .317. But the long layoff and thumb issue did him no favors, and he should have the bat speed to settle into at least average power long term.
Lawlar can really fly, especially underway, and he should be a threat to steal 30+ bags for much of his career. He's grown more consistent at shortstop over the years, doing more than just relying on his athleticism to make plays, and his throwing has improved with the professional reps. He sprinkled some time in at third base in both the summer and winter, and the D-backs say that will continue, along with some potential work at second, as they try to find him an MLB home in 2025.
Ranked as MLB Pipeline's No. 3 prospect in the 2021 Draft, the Gatorade Texas High School Player of the Year went to the D-backs with the sixth overall pick before signing for well-above-slot at $6,713,300. A left shoulder injury limited him to only two Minor League games that summer, but he showed signs of being a quick mover with time at four levels -- including Double-A Amarillo -- in 2022 while finishing with a .303/.401/.509 line, 16 homers and 39 steals. He returned to the Texas League for 2023 and caught fire midseason, leading to an August promotion to Triple-A Reno and a quick September hook to the Majors. Lawlar appeared in three games in Arizona's playoff push to the World Series, serving as a pinch-hitter and runner.
Lawlar's quick and compact swing means he can catch up to velocity, although he exhibited some swing-and-miss issues with offspeed stuff in 2023. Having turned only 21 last July, he might just need more exposure to high-level non-fastballs to iron out those issues. Lawlar also rarely expands the zone and has posted at least a 10 percent walk rate at each of his Minor League stops thus far. He did a better job of elevating on contact in his return to Amarillo (an extreme hitter's park), and he should quickly be a 20-homer threat in the Majors.
The 6-foot-1 infielder moves extremely well and smartly picks his stolen-base opportunities, leading to back-to-back 30-plus steal seasons in 2022 and '23. That athleticism has treated him well at shortstop, too, and the D-backs believe he's solidified his standing at the position with improved consistency across the board. Arizona will have a good problem with Geraldo Perdomo manning the six, but with his pop advantage, Lawlar has the higher long-term ceiling. Before challenging Perdomo in 2024, Lawlar will need to return from right thumb surgery that is expected to keep him out for the first two months of the regular season.
Fresh off being named Gatorade's 2021 Texas High School Player of the Year, Lawlar went sixth overall to the D-backs and signed for the Draft's third-highest bonus at $6,713,300. After a shoulder injury ended his first dip into the Minors after only two games, the right-handed slugger came out firing in 2022, batting .351/.447/.603 with 22 extra-base hits in 44 games at Single-A Visalia. Eager to press the shortstop, Arizona gave him looks at High-A Hillsboro, Double-A Amarillo and the Arizona Fall League before a fractured left scapula knocked him out again in the autumn.
Lawlar's compact right-handed swing is already helpful in his pursuit to square up balls, and his advanced pitch recognition aids that ability to produce solid averages and walk rates. (He notably walked at least 10 percent of the time at all three full-season stops in 2022.) The former Vanderbilt commit established a solid power base with 16 homers in his first full season and could build on that as he matures into his 6-foot-2 frame. Even now, the power plays well to all fields as he can go the other way with authority when pitch location calls him to do so.
Using his plus speed, Lawlar took advantage of Minor League rules to swipe 39 bags across three levels, and even if he doesn't reach those heights in the bigs, he should be a baserunning threat for much of his career. He's still a work in progress defensively, particularly when it comes to the accuracy of his throws. Good range and promising arm strength still give him an impressive five-tool ceiling, but the D-backs will have to balance the need to challenge Lawlar's bat and develop his glove in future assignments.
As a five-tool shortstop from a Dallas-area high school, Lawlar inevitably draws parallels to Bobby Witt Jr., the No. 2 overall pick in 2019 by the Royals. While Witt had louder tools and was more advanced after growing up around the game as the son of a 16-year big leaguer, Lawlar entered 2021 as the consensus top high school prospect and won Gatorade's Texas high school player of the year award. The D-backs selected him with the sixth overall pick and signed him away from his Vanderbilt commitment with an above-slot bonus of $6.71 million. But a shoulder injury ended his professional debut after just two games (five at-bats) in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League.
Lawlar is a more polished hitter than Witt was at the same stage with a quick, compact right-handed swing and a mature, patient approach, though he struck out more than expected as a senior. He focuses on working the gaps and has a knack for inside-outing balls to right field. With his bat speed and the projectable strength in his 6-foot-2 frame, he should develop solid power once he adds strength and starts turning on more pitches.
Lawlar's plus speed plays well on the bases and in the field, and he'll even clock some well-above-average run times on occasion. With plenty of range, quick hands and a strong arm, there's no doubt he'll stick at shortstop, though like most youngsters he needs to improve his consistency.
As a five-tool shortstop from a Dallas-area high school, Lawlar inevitably draws parallels to Bobby Witt Jr., the No. 2 overall pick in 2019 by the Royals. While Witt had louder tools and was more advanced because he grew up around the game as the son of a 16-year big leaguer, Lawlar entered the year as the consensus top high school prospect and won Gatorade's Texas high school player of the year award. The D-backs selected him with the sixth overall pick and signed him away from his Vanderbilt commitment with an above-slot bonus of $6.71 million. However, a shoulder injury ended his professional debut after just two games in the ACL.
Lawlar is a more polished hitter than Witt was at the same stage with a quick, compact right-handed swing and a mature, patient approach, though he struck out more than expected as a senior. He focuses on working the gaps and has a knack for inside-outing balls to right field. With his bat speed and the projectable strength in his 6-foot-2 frame, he should develop solid power once he adds strength and starts turning on more pitches.
Lawlar's plus speed plays well on the bases and in the field, and he'll even clock some well-above-average run times on occasion. He is a no-doubt shortstop with plenty of range, quick hands and a strong arm, though like most youngsters he needs to improve his defensive consistency.
As a five-tool shortstop from a Dallas-area high school, Lawlar inevitably draws parallels to Bobby Witt Jr., the No. 2 overall pick in 2019 by the Royals. While Witt had louder tools and was more advanced because he grew up around the game as the son of a 16-year big leaguer, Lawlar should go in the same area of the 2021 Draft. He entered the year as the consensus top high school prospect and won Gatorade's Texas high school player of the year award.
Lawlar is a more polished hitter than Witt was at the same stage with a quick, compact right-handed swing and a mature, patient approach, though he has struck out more than expected as a senior. He focuses on working the gaps and has a knack for inside-outing balls to right field. With his bat speed and the projectable strength in his 6-foot-2 frame, he should develop solid power once he adds strength and starts turning on more pitches.
Lawlar's plus speed plays well on the bases and in the field, and he'll even clock some well-above-average run times on occasion. The Vanderbilt recruit is a no-doubt shortstop with plenty of range, quick hands and a strong arm, though like most youngsters he needs to improve his defensive consistency. There isn't much to quibble with his game, though teams with age-based models won't like that he'll turn 19 a week after the Draft.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about how positioning is defined here
