P | San Diego Padres
Bats/Throws: S/R | 6' 1" 185 lbs | Age: 27
Draft: 2017 | Rd. 6, No. 195, Chicago Cubs | Palm Desert (CA) HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 0 0 6.75 12 0 0 10.2 13 2.25
2024 6 3 2.95 62 0 1 61 94 1.07
2025 4 5 3.45 77 0 3 73 108 1.16
4 Seasons 10 8 3.47 156 0 4 150.1 223 1.22
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 12 0-0 6.75 10.2 13 2.25
2024 62 6-3 2.95 61 94 1.07
2025 77 4-5 3.45 73 108 1.16
4 Seasons 156 10-8 3.47 150.1 223 1.22
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2022 23 117 14 1 7.1 4.0 85.9 108.6 15.9 28.6 .239 .408 .386 .319 .421 35.7 32.0 12.0 3.18 4.25
2023 24 237 31 6 19.4 10.7 96.6 109.2 17.1 51.6 .331 .751 .426 .490 .623 71.0 23.2 21.4 6.75 12.64
2024 25 1003 134 7 5.2 2.8 89.2 109.8 17.5 35.8 .188 .281 .239 .249 .352 37.3 37.3 9.1 2.95 2.55
2025 26 1236 166 15 9.0 4.9 90.1 112.7 21.4 33.1 .186 .323 .295 .261 .359 39.2 35.5 8.9 3.45 2.80
Player 2593 345 29 8.4 4.6 90.2 112.7 19.3 35.7 .200 .342 .288 .279 .383 41.2 35.0 10.2
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .245 .404 .315 .315 .368 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Estrada relies on 3 pitches.
Four Seamer
(56.8%) ,
Split Finger
(23.2%) ,
Slider
(20.0%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2022 28.6 71.4 28.6 35.7 7.1 35.7 14.3 50.0 7.1 7.1 14.3 28.6 7.1 35.7
2023 22.6 77.4 38.7 35.5 3.2 48.4 35.5 16.1 16.1 6.5 0.0 32.3 29.0 16.1
2024 35.1 64.9 31.3 25.4 8.2 35.8 40.3 23.9 17.9 14.9 2.2 17.9 25.4 21.6
2025 35.5 64.5 30.1 21.7 12.7 31.3 44.6 24.1 15.7 15.7 4.2 15.7 28.9 19.9
Player 33.9 66.1 31.3 24.9 9.9 34.8 40.9 24.3 16.2 14.2 3.5 18.6 26.7 20.9
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.0 24.7 7.1 37.4 37.4 25.1 20.6 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2022 7.1 21.4 28.6 35.7 0.0 7.1 4.0
2023 0.0 16.1 16.1 32.3 16.1 19.4 10.7
2024 3.0 26.1 32.1 27.6 6.0 5.2 2.8
2025 1.8 24.1 35.5 23.5 6.0 9.0 4.9
Player 2.3 24.1 32.2 26.4 6.7 8.4 4.6
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 Split-Finger SD R 287 83.7 29.0 -6.2 10.9ARM 0.8 10.1 -7.1 10.9ARM -0.3
2025 Slider SD R 247 88.5 31.9 -0.8 4.4GLV 0.3 3.1 -1.4 4.4GLV -0.2
2025 4-Seam Fastball SD R 702 97.9 9.2 3.5 2.0ARM -5.4 19.6 3.8 2.0ARM -5.6
2024 4-Seam Fastball SD R 566 97.2 9.6 3.5 1.5ARM -6.0 19.5 3.8 1.5ARM -6.1
2024 Slider SD R 237 89.8 28.4 -2.8 5.0GLV 1.3 5.4 -3.7 5.0GLV 0.2
2024 Sinker SD R 1 97.1 7.8 -11.9 0.8ARM -14.0 21.5 -14.3 0.8ARM -14.1
2024 Split-Finger SD R 199 83.6 29.7 -5.2 11.8ARM 2.4 9.4 -6.8 11.8ARM 1.1
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.3 2 702 56.8 177 .248 .438 .337 29.1 31.1 23.9 .212 .383 .301 44.7
2025 Split-Finger 1.7 5 287 23.2 76 .127 .169 .166 47.5 53.9 29.5 .108 .132 .143 23.3
2025 Slider -0.2 -1 247 20.0 49 .244 .578 .370 40.8 24.5 20.7 .221 .420 .306 36.4
2024 4-Seam Fastball 1.2 7 566 56.4 132 .191 .304 .265 32.6 31.1 24.3 .197 .313 .279 39.5
2024 Slider 0.8 2 237 23.6 56 .235 .275 .300 32.8 30.4 25.4 .226 .290 .267 41.2
2024 Split-Finger 1.2 2 199 19.8 63 .138 .224 .202 51.0 57.1 33.6 .135 .209 .194 25.0
2024 Sinker -9.3 0 1 0.1 -- -- -- -- -- 0.0 -- -- -- --
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 4-Seam Fastball 700 97.9 99 19.4 12:15 12:15 0
2025 Split-Finger 287 83.7 98 14.7 1:45 1:45 0
2025 Slider 247 88.5 42 5.4 10:30 9:45 45
2024 4-Seam Fastball 550 97.2 98 19.2 12:15 12:15 0
2024 Split-Finger 193 83.6 98 15.2 1:45 1:45 0
2024 Slider 228 89.9 50 7.2 11:15 10:15 60
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2022 25 117 1 1 -1 -1 -1
2023 55 237 1 -1 -2 -2 -4
2024 251 1,003 9 10 -3 -4 11
2025 302 1,236 4 15 -8 -4 6
Player 633 2,593 14 24 -15 14 13
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2022 117 47.9 85.7 68.8 31.1 63.2 51.3 72.0 57.3 32.8 6.8 87.5
2023 237 50.2 72.3 80.2 23.7 60.7 42.2 65.5 48.1 24.6 8.0 89.5
2024 1,003 52.4 72.1 71.8 33.5 45.6 41.3 67.7 53.7 36.0 8.1 85.2
2025 1,236 50.5 70.0 72.8 33.5 48.8 45.5 64.2 51.9 34.9 6.6 79.3
Player 2,593 51.1 71.7 72.8 32.5 49.0 43.8 66.0 52.5 34.4 7.3 83.2
MLB 48.9 67.0 82.5 28.4 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2022 90 62 69
2023 79 65 68
2024 96 96 99 96 93 93 87 39 62 99 33 96 93 92 43 76
2025 93 98 90 65 93 62 39 29 61 98 34 96 93 94 27 83
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 -- 1 1.4 0 0 1 1 100.0
2023 24.73 4 4.5 -1 0 4 1 25.0
2024 25.38 4 3.7 0 2 2 2 50.0
2025 24.24 12 9.5 3 3 8 3 25.0
Player 24.60 21 19.1 2 5 15 7 33.3
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2022 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1
2023 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 4
2024 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 4 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4
2025 12 12 6 9 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 8 10 13 10 8 11 9 11 10 9 11 11 12 9 7 7 10 12 9 7
Player 21 19 15 18 19 20 20 17 16 16 19 18 20 23 20 17 21 17 21 22 19 21 24 22 18 16 16 21 22 19 16
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022
Results
BA .216 +.028 .188 -.091 .279 -.007 .286
xBA .186 -.002 .188 -.143 .331 +.092 .239
OBP .291 +.032 .259 -.170 .429 +.069 .360
xOBP .266 +.002 .264 -.204 .468 +.146 .322
SLG .390 +.113 .277 -.328 .605 +.034 .571
xSLG .323 +.042 .281 -.470 .751 +.343 .408
ISO .175 +.086 .089 -.237 .326 +.040 .286
xISO .137 +.044 .093 -.328 .421 +.252 .169
BABIP .303 +.011 .292 -.004 .296 -.089 .385
wOBA .295 +.056 .239 -.187 .426 +.040 .386
xwOBA .261 +.012 .249 -.241 .490 +.171 .319
wOBACON .421 +.088 .333 -.177 .510 -.032 .542
xwOBACON .359 +.007 .352 -.271 .623 +.202 .421
BACON .354 +.041 .313 -.074 .387 -.042 .429
xBACON .307 -.016 .323 -.136 .459 +.099 .360
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 39.2 +1.9 37.3 -33.7 71.0 +35.3 35.7
Avg Exit Velocity 90.1 +0.9 89.2 -7.4 96.6 +10.7 85.9
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 33.1 -2.7 35.8 -15.8 51.6 +23.0 28.6
Barrel % 9.0 +3.8 5.2 -14.2 19.4 +12.3 7.1
Avg Launch Angle 21.4 +3.9 17.5 +0.4 17.1 +1.2 15.9
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 70.7 -0.4 71.1 -- -- -- --
Attack Angle -1° 10° -- -- -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 51.3 +0.3 51.0 -- -- -- --
Attack Direction -1° +1° -2° -- -- -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 29° -2° 31° -- -- -- --
Swing Length 7.2 0.0 7.2 -- -- -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 97.9 +0.7 97.2 +1.5 95.7 -1.0 96.7
Breaking Velocity 88.5 -1.3 89.8 +7.0 82.8 +1.2 81.6
Offspeed Velocity 83.7 +0.1 83.6 -3.4 87.0 +0.1 86.9
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 15 +8 7 +1 6 +5 1
Popup % 12.7 +4.5 8.2 +5.0 3.2 -3.9 7.1
Flyball % 30.1 -1.2 31.3 -7.4 38.7 +10.1 28.6
Line Drive % 21.7 -3.7 25.4 -10.1 35.5 -0.2 35.7
Groundball % 35.5 +0.4 35.1 +12.5 22.6 -6.0 28.6
Pull % 31.3 -4.5 35.8 -12.6 48.4 +12.7 35.7
Straight Away % 44.6 +4.3 40.3 +4.8 35.5 +21.2 14.3
Opposite Field % 24.1 +0.2 23.9 +7.8 16.1 -33.9 50.0
Weak Contact % 1.8 -1.2 3.0 +3.0 0.0 -7.1 7.1
Pull Airball % 15.7 -2.2 17.9 -14.4 32.3 +3.7 28.6
Topped Contact % 24.1 -2.0 26.1 +10.0 16.1 -5.3 21.4
Under Contact % 35.5 +3.4 32.1 +16.0 16.1 -12.5 28.6
Flare/Burner Contact % 23.5 -4.1 27.6 -4.7 32.3 -3.4 35.7
Solid Contact % 6.0 0.0 6.0 -10.1 16.1 +16.1 0.0
HR/FB % 24.0 +14.5 9.5 -23.8 33.3 +8.3 25.0
Popups 21 +10 11 +10 1 0 1
Flyballs 50 +8 42 +30 12 +8 4
Line Drives 36 +2 34 +23 11 +6 5
Groundballs 59 +12 47 +40 7 +3 4
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 50.5 -1.9 52.4 +2.2 50.2 +2.3 47.9
Out of Zone % 49.5 +1.9 47.6 -2.2 49.8 -2.3 52.1
Edge % 45.5 +4.2 41.3 -0.9 42.2 -9.1 51.3
Zone Swing % 70.0 -2.1 72.1 -0.2 72.3 -13.4 85.7
Out of Zone Swing % 33.5 0.0 33.5 +9.8 23.7 -7.4 31.1
In Zone Contact % 72.8 +1.0 71.8 -8.4 80.2 +11.4 68.8
Out of Zone Contact % 48.8 +3.2 45.6 -15.1 60.7 -2.5 63.2
Whiff % 34.9 -1.1 36.0 +11.4 24.6 -8.2 32.8
First Strike % 64.2 -3.5 67.7 +2.2 65.5 -6.5 72.0
First Pitch Swing % 36.1 -6.9 43.0 +8.5 34.5 -17.5 52.0
Swing % 51.9 -1.8 53.7 +5.6 48.1 -9.2 57.3
Meatball Swing % 79.3 -5.9 85.2 -4.3 89.5 +2.0 87.5
Meatball % 6.6 -1.5 8.1 +0.1 8.0 +1.2 6.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 27.2 -1.0 28.2 +8.4 19.8 -11.5 31.3
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 51.2 -3.2 54.4 +15.1 39.3 +2.5 36.8
In Zone 624 +98 526 +407 119 +63 56
Out of Zone 612 +135 477 +359 118 +57 61
Edge 562 +148 414 +314 100 +40 60
In Zone Swings 437 +58 379 +293 86 +38 48
Out of Zone Swings 205 +45 160 +132 28 +9 19
In Zone Swing & Misses 119 +12 107 +90 17 +2 15
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 105 +18 87 +76 11 +4 7
Basic
Pitches 1,236 +233 1,003 +766 237 +120 117
PA 304 +52 252 +196 56 +31 25
AB 269 +45 224 +181 43 +22 21
Hits 58 +16 42 +30 12 +6 6
Singles 36 +6 30 +24 6 +3 3
Doubles 9 +1 8 +6 2 +1 1
Triples 1 +1 0 0 0 -1 1
Home Runs 12 +8 4 0 4 +3 1
Walks 27 +4 23 +11 12 +9 3
Strikeouts 108 +14 94 +81 13 +5 8
K% 35.5 -1.8 37.3 +14.1 23.2 -8.8 32.0
BB% 8.9 -0.2 9.1 -12.3 21.4 +9.4 12.0
HBP 3 +3 0 0 0 0 0
Batted Balls 166 +32 134 +103 31 +17 14
Number of Fastballs 702 +135 567 +368 199 +111 88
Number of Offspeed 287 +88 199 +193 6 +4 2
Number of Breaking 247 +10 237 +205 32 +5 27
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2022 Shifts 25 .386 18 2 11.1 7 3 42.9
2023 Shades 55 .426 34 0 0.0 21 7 33.3
2024 Shades 245 .236 144 3 2.1 101 40 39.6
2025 Shades 302 .295 177 1 0.6 125 105 84.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2022 14 18.6 7.1% 0.0% 26 20.3 0.0% 3.8%
2023 41 16.4 29.3% 0.0% 59 19.0 3.4% 0.0%
2024 225 17.3 6.2% 0.9% 153 19.8 0.7% 1.3%
2025 284 18.3 0.7% 1.1% 201 20.3 0.0% 1.0%

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Pitch Distribution