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James Paxton
P | B/T: L/L | 6' 4" 227LBS | Age: 33

Draft: 2010 | Rd: 4, #132, Seattle Mariners
Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 0 0 6.75 1 1 0 1.1 2 0.75
9 Seasons 57 33 3.59 137 137 0 754.2 831 1.21
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 1 0-0 6.75 1.1 2 0.75
9 Seasons 137 57-33 3.59 754.2 831 1.21

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 27 1111 212 15 7.1 90.1 116.3 8.7 27.4 .249 .416 .309 .325 .364 37.7 18.9 9.8 3.90 4.62
2016 28 1950 369 15 4.1 90.4 117 8.8 30.6 .246 .364 .306 .280 .344 41.2 22.9 4.7 3.79 3.38
2017 29 2268 356 10 2.8 87.2 112.2 12.3 31.7 .213 .305 .263 .255 .319 31.3 28.3 6.7 2.98 2.80
2018 30 2603 394 37 9.4 90.1 114.5 15 36.3 .219 .380 .287 .285 .391 42.1 32.2 6.5 3.76 3.44
2019 31 2665 390 29 7.4 89.2 113.4 17.6 35.1 .220 .379 .310 .291 .371 38.5 29.4 8.7 3.82 3.77
2020 32 356 56 6 10.7 90.7 109.2 18.4 37.5 .228 .442 .368 .315 .406 44.6 28.9 7.8 6.64 4.24
2021 33 24 2 0 0 66.2 81.8 14.5 0 .044 .046 .138 .170 .080 0 40 20 6.75 1.26
10977 1779 112 6.3 89.4 117 13.1 32.9 .226 .367 .296 .284 .359 38.5 27.5 7.1
6.6 88.3 122.2 12 32.9 .243 .403 .317 .313 .363 35.4 22 8.4

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Paxton relies on 3 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(66.7%) ,
Cutter
(29.2%) ,
Curveball
(4.2%) ,


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Pitch Tracking

Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway%
2021 4-Seam Fastball 16 15 1 66.7 94.1 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000 .059 .000 .062 .173 .213 66.2 15 2277 6.4 14.3 20.0
2021 Cutter 7 7 0 29.2 86.1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 2041 6.2 60.0 50.0
2021 Curveball 1 1 0 4.2 78.1 1842 6.0
2020 4-Seam Fastball 202 159 43 56.7 92.1 53 48 15 7 4 1 3 11 37 .313 .252 .625 .493 .418 .348 90.2 21 2226 6.5 18.7 19.0
2020 Curveball 56 51 5 15.7 79.7 16 15 3 2 1 0 0 6 10 .200 .162 .267 .254 .188 .168 90.9 2 2120 6.4 25.0 27.3
2020 Cutter 53 27 26 14.9 85.4 13 13 5 3 1 0 1 5 8 .385 .265 .692 .525 .451 .332 92.2 26 2028 6.4 41.4 18.5
2020 Changeup 45 45 0 12.6 82.0 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 .000 .096 .000 .301 .262 .362 96.6 28 2220 6.6 68.4 26.7
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel %
2015 49.5 23.1 22.6 4.7 36.3 38.7 25 1.9 38.7 23.1 22.2 5.7 7.1
2016 48.8 20.9 25.2 5.1 33.6 35.5 30.9 3.5 37.7 22.8 27.6 4.1 4.1
2017 45.8 20.5 25.8 7.9 34 32.9 33.1 3.9 34.6 25.8 27 5.1 2.8
2018 41.1 27.7 23.9 7.4 33.5 37.1 29.4 2.5 29.9 26.4 25.4 5.3 9.4
2019 40.3 25.4 22.6 11.8 37.9 34.6 27.4 4.4 25.6 29 25.4 7.4 7.4
2020 32.1 28.6 32.1 7.1 32.1 42.9 25 1.8 19.6 33.9 25 8.9 10.7
2021 50 0 0 50 0 0 100 50 50 0 0 0 0
44.2 23.8 24.3 7.7 34.9 35.7 29.5 3.4 32.3 25.9 25.7 5.6 6.3
45.1 22.5 25.4 7.1 36.6 37.8 25.5 3.7 33.2 24.4 24.4 5.7 6.6

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2021 Cutter SEA L 7 86.1 32.5 -2.7 -9 1.1 -2.4 -70
2021 4-Seamer SEA L 16 94.1 13.2 0.6 4 12.1 5.8 92
2021 Curveball SEA L 1 78.1 52.2 -3.2 -6 5 -2 -28
2020 Cutter NYY L 53 85.4 31.9 -1.1 -3 0.1 -3 -103
2020 4-Seamer NYY L 202 92.1 18.3 -2.3 -14 14.1 6.9 97
2020 Curveball NYY L 56 79.7 50.3 -1.6 -3 5.2 -4.4 -46
2020 Changeup NYY L 45 82 36 3.5 11 15.5 2.6 20
2019 Curveball NYY L 503 81.1 48.8 -3.3 -6 3.3 -4.7 -59
2019 Cutter NYY L 532 88.1 30.7 -3.2 -12 1.6 -0.3 -16
2019 Changeup NYY L 32 86.2 29.3 0 0 11.9 -1.5 -11
2019 4-Seamer NYY L 1596 95.4 14.7 -0.2 -1 11.4 3.9 52
2018 Curveball SEA L 560 81.1 49.8 -2.2 -4 3.9 -3.5 -47
2018 Cutter SEA L 375 89 29.5 -2.9 -11 0 -2 -101
2018 Changeup SEA L 11 86.5 25.9 -3.6 -12 12.3 -0.9 -7
2018 4-Seamer SEA L 1650 95.4 14.7 -0.2 -1 11.9 4.7 64
2017 Changeup SEA L 55 86.9 24.1 -2.1 -8 11.9 -1.3 -10
2017 Cutter SEA L 242 88.8 27.6 -2.8 -11 0.4 -1.3 -79
2017 4-Seamer SEA L 1480 95.5 12.3 0.3 2 9.9 2.2 29
2017 Curveball SEA L 484 80.4 49.5 -1.4 -3 7.7 0.2 2
2016 4-Seamer SEA L 1152 97.5 13.2 -1.4 -12 12 3 33
2016 Sinker SEA L 68 91.3 22.4 1.7 8 8.9 -4.3 -32
2016 Cutter SEA L 328 90.3 26.7 -4.1 -18 0.6 -1.1 -240
2016 Curveball SEA L 235 82.5 48.9 2 4 5.6 -0.7 -11
2016 Changeup SEA L 153 89.4 24.3 0.3 1 11.5 -1.8 -13
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2021 Cutter -3.3 0 7 29.2 1 0 0 0 60 100 50 0
2021 4-Seamer -1.7 0 16 66.7 4 0 0 .175 14.3 25 20 .059 .062 .215 0
2021 Curveball -7.1 0 1 4.2
2020 Changeup 0.7 0 45 12.6 8 0 0 .263 68.4 50 26.7 .096 .301 .363 100
2020 Cutter 6.6 4 53 14.9 13 .385 .692 .458 41.4 38.5 18.5 .265 .525 .332 50
2020 Curveball -1.5 -1 56 15.7 16 .2 .267 .191 25 37.5 27.3 .162 .254 .168 20
2020 4-Seamer 1.3 3 202 56.7 53 .313 .625 .423 18.7 20.8 19 .252 .493 .348 48.6
2019 Changeup -3.2 -1 32 1.2 7 0 0 .1 53.8 14.3 20 .276 .305 .284 40
2019 Curveball -1.7 -9 503 18.9 130 .178 .288 .242 37.4 38.5 23.9 .168 .261 .228 27.1
2019 Cutter 0.8 4 532 20 149 .254 .43 .309 43.3 40.3 25.3 .208 .347 .247 42.9
2019 4-Seamer -0.1 -2 1596 59.9 347 .266 .479 .362 24.4 21.6 17 .246 .44 .335 40.3
2018 Changeup 2.7 0 11 0.4 1 1 1 .9 50 0 .933 1.062 .866 0
2018 Curveball 0.3 2 560 21.5 120 .235 .403 .282 39.9 34.2 24.4 .228 .378 .268 35.9
2018 Cutter -1.6 -6 375 14.4 135 .144 .258 .182 36.9 51.9 26.4 .144 .232 .175 40.3
2018 4-Seamer -0.4 -7 1650 63.4 389 .249 .428 .333 25.4 24.9 22.8 .242 .435 .329 44.7
2017 Changeup 3 2 55 2.4 14 .286 .714 .411 22.7 0 .294 .59 .366 42.9
2017 Cutter -2.2 -5 242 10.7 81 .195 .234 .214 37.3 43.2 24.1 .163 .214 .189 31
2017 Curveball -0.9 -5 484 21.3 117 .162 .261 .22 40.8 48.7 26.9 .132 .2 .182 25.9
2017 4-Seamer -1.1 -17 1480 65.3 337 .248 .351 .299 23.3 18.7 17.6 .252 .356 .3 31.8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 43 82 83 16.7 9:30 9:15 15
2020 Curveball 54 79.7 62 11.2 4:30 5:00 -30
2020 Cutter 45 85.5 35 4.8 10:45 12:00 -75
2020 4-Seam Fastball 197 92.1 99 19.9 10:15 10:30 -15
2021 4-Seam Fastball 16 94.1 99 21.4 10:45 10:45 0
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2013 89 367 -5 -4 2 1 -6
2014 301 1178 -8 -10 5 3 -9
2015 295 1109 -12 -3 8 5 -3
2016 508 1940 -3 -6 8 3 3
2017 549 2261 -24 -14 7 6 -25
2018 645 2598 1 -23 5 6 -11
2019 691 2912 -6 -30 17 10 -9
2020 90 356 3 -1 2 1 5
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 1111 47.3 62.3 87.2 21.9 62.5 43 53.5 41 19.1 7.7 61.6
2016 1950 53.8 66.8 82.5 30.4 53.1 46 62.4 49.8 25.5 7.5 74.7
2017 2268 53.3 67.3 77.9 26.5 53.2 43.7 64.9 48.2 28.2 8.5 75.6
2018 2603 54.5 70 78.3 32 47.2 43.3 66.2 52.6 30 9 78.1
2019 2665 48.4 70.8 77.4 30.5 50.8 44.7 65.7 49.9 30.7 6 81.8
2020 356 49.2 69.7 82 33.7 50.8 36.8 68.9 51.4 28.4 9 68.8
2021 24 37.5 66.7 83.3 40 50 70.8 100 50 33.3 0
10977 51.7 68.3 79.6 29.2 51.7 44 63.9 49.4 28 7.7 75.6
48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.5 42.6 60.6 47 24.6 7.2 76

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2015 19 33 22 19 22 47 12 4 10 39 13 21 19 77 14 11
2016 80 45 67 79 81 49 83 5 4 65 92 70 80 87 23 8
2017 93 83 92 97 91 66 96 49 65 85 77 78 93 77 54 6
2018 73 73 53 37 89 8 6 7 3 94 79 79 73 73 54 3
2019 72 74 66 60 74 23 41 33 33 83 39 82 72 60 39 3
2020 49 60 30 16 70 46 13 12 14 76 60 62 49 21 31 9
2021
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.1 25 20.7 4 13 12 10 40
2020 25 4 4.1 0 1 4 0 0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 25 23 27 18 25 17 20 22 20 21 27 20 16 21 19 23 18 24 19 23 12 17 15 24 19 26 20 18 22 17 27
2020 4 5 4 4 5 4 3 5 3 4 5 5 2 4 3 4 3 6 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 4 3 6
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights and distances, but does not attempt to adjust for environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 94.6 95.7 1.1 94.6 -1.1 94.2 -0.4 93.6 -0.6 90.7 -2.9 91.7 1
Offspeed Velocity 86.5 89.4 2.9 86.9 -2.5 86.5 -0.4 86.2 -0.3 82 -4.2 0 0
Breaking Velocity 81.8 82.5 0.7 80.4 -2.1 81.1 0.7 81.1 0 79.7 -1.4 78.1 -1.6
Exit Velocity 90.1 90.4 0.3 87.2 -3.2 90.1 2.9 89.2 -0.9 90.7 1.5 66.2 -24.5
Launch Angle 8.7 8.8 0.1 12.3 3.5 15 2.7 17.6 2.6 18.4 0.8 14.5 -3.9
Barrel % 7.1 4.1 -3 2.8 -1.3 9.4 6.6 7.4 -2 10.7 3.3 0 -10.7
Hard Hit % 37.7 41.2 3.5 31.3 -9.9 42.1 10.8 38.5 -3.6 44.6 6.1 0 -44.6
Sweet Spot % 27.4 30.6 3.2 31.7 1.1 36.3 4.6 35.1 -1.2 37.5 2.4 0 -37.5
xBA .249 .246 -0.003 .213 -0.033 .219 0.006 .22 0.001 .228 0.008 .044 -0.184
BA .253 .279 0.026 .223 -0.056 .224 0.001 .242 0.018 .284 0.042 0 -0.284
xwOBA .325 .28 -0.045 .255 -0.025 .285 0.03 .291 0.006 .315 0.024 .17 -0.145
wOBA .309 .306 -0.003 .263 -0.043 .287 0.024 .31 0.023 .368 0.058 .138 -0.23
xSLG .416 .364 -0.052 .305 -0.059 .38 0.075 .379 -0.001 .442 0.063 .046 -0.396
SLG .381 .406 0.025 .324 -0.082 .386 0.062 .423 0.037 .531 0.108 0 -0.531
K% 18.9 22.9 4 28.3 5.4 32.2 3.9 29.4 -2.8 28.9 -0.5 40 11.1
BB% 9.8 4.7 -5.1 6.7 2 6.5 -0.2 8.7 2.2 7.8 -0.9 20 12.2
Swing % 41 49.8 8.8 48.2 -1.6 52.6 4.4 49.9 -2.7 51.4 1.5 50 -1.4
Whiff% 19.1 25.5 6.4 28.2 2.7 30 1.8 30.7 0.7 28.4 -2.3 33.3 4.9
In Zone % 47.3 53.8 6.5 53.3 -0.5 54.5 1.2 48.4 -6.1 49.2 0.8 37.5 -11.7
Out of Zone % 52.7 46.2 -6.5 46.7 0.5 45.5 -1.2 51.6 6.1 50.8 -0.8 62.5 11.7
Out of Zone Swing % 21.9 30.4 8.5 26.5 -3.9 32 5.5 30.5 -1.5 33.7 3.2 40 6.3
First Pitch Swing % 22.2 29.2 7 27.2 -2 31.9 4.7 32.4 0.5 34.4 2 60 25.6
First Pitch Strike % 53.5 62.4 8.9 64.9 2.5 66.2 1.3 65.7 -0.5 68.9 3.2 100 31.1
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2016 506 .307 425 13 3.1 81 31 38.3
2017 550 .263 459 1 0.2 91 12 13.2
2018 645 .287 533 4 0.8 112 9 8.0
2019 633 .310 479 60 12.5 154 71 46.1
2020 89 .372 67 12 17.9 22 13 59.1
2021 5 .138 4 0 0.0 1 0 0.0

Pitch Distribution