Melton spent a year at Linn-Benton (Ore.) CC before his first two seasons at Oregon State were limited by the pandemic and a shoulder injury, then won the 2022 Pacific-12 Conference player of the year award by hitting .360/.424/.671 with a school-record 83 RBIs in 2022. He generated some first-round buzz but surprisingly lasted until the end of the second round, where the Astros were delighted to sign him for $1 million. He has totaled 38 homers and 76 steals in his first two full pro seasons while reaching Triple-A, and Houston declined to give him up in the Justin Verlander trade with the Mets in 2023.
Melton's left-handed swing has never pleased scouts, though the Astros have helped him tighten it and reduce the big leg kick he employed in college. His bat speed and strength create plus raw power to all fields, and Houston would like him to attack pitches more out in front of the plate so he can drive the ball in the air more easily and produce more in-game pop. He lets the ball travel deep but still struggles to identify non-fastballs, which lead to struggles against breaking balls and southpaws, who have held him to a .228 average with just three homers in two-plus years as a pro.
A plus runner, Melton is a prolific and successful basestealer who may have more outfield range than any Houston farmhand. He's a quality defender in center field with an average arm that's more than playable. With the Astros' outfield in a state of flux, he could be ready for at least a platoon role by the second half of 2025.
After spending his first college season at Linn-Benton (Ore.) CC and having his first two years at Oregon State truncated by the pandemic and an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, Melton won Pacific-12 Conference player of the year honors and set Beavers records with 83 RBIs and 175 total bases in 2022. He surprisingly dropped to the end of the second round, where Houston snapped him up with a $1 million bonus, and he batted .245/.335/.467 with 23 homers and 46 steals in 99 games in his first full pro season in 2023. When the Astros were negotiating the Justin Verlander trade with the Mets last summer, they preferred to give up Top 100 prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford so they could hold onto Melton.
Melton still doesn't have a classic left-handed swing, but Houston has helped him streamline it and tone down a big leg kick that he had in college. His strength and bat speed create plus raw power that plays to all fields, and his mechanical changes have enabled him to drive the ball in the air more consistently. He struggled against southpaws and did most of his damage at the friendly confines of High-A Asheville in 2023, but he also produced outstanding underlying metrics in terms of swing decisions, consistency of hard contact and exit velocity.
Melton has plus speed and uses it well, stealing 46 bases in 53 attempts last year. His quickness gives him solid range in center field and he has a better chance to remain up the middle with 2022 first-rounder Gilbert departing in the Verlander deal. He also fits the right-field profile with his offensive upside and solid arm strength.
Melton began his college career at Linn-Benton CC (Ore.) in 2019, then had the pandemic and an injury to his non-throwing shoulder cut his first two seasons at Oregon State short. He finally got a chance to show what he could do in 2022 and won Pacific-12 Conference player of the year honors, batting .360/.424/.670 with 17 homers, 22 steals and school records for total bases (175) and RBIs (83). The Astros had him in their first-round mix and were stunned to get him in the second round, where he signed for $1 million.
Though Melton employs a big leg kick and has a left-handed stroke with a lot of moving parts, he regularly barreled balls in college without showing any obvious weakness at the plate. There are questions about how his unorthodox hitting mechanics and aggressive approach will translate to pro ball, though he did continue to rake in three weeks in Single-A during his pro debut. His strength and bat speed create at least plus raw power to all fields, and he'll get the most out of it if he can drive the ball in the air more consistently.
Melton has at least 20-20 potential thanks to his plus speed and will flash plus-plus run times on occasion. His quickness also helps him cover ground in center field and he has a better chance to stay there in the long run after Houston sent 2022 first-rounder Drew Gilbert to the Mets in the Justin Verlander trade. With his solid arm strength and offensive upside, Melton will have no trouble fitting the profile in right field should he have to move.
After spending his first college season at Linn-Benton CC (Ore.) and barely playing at Oregon State during pandemic-shortened 2020, Melton started to emerge as an offensive force in 2021 before an injury to his non-throwing shoulder ended that season in April. He came back and won Pacific-12 Conference player of the year honors in 2022, hitting .360/.424/.670 with 17 homers and 22 steals and setting school records for total bases (175) and RBIs (83). The Astros were astonished to find him available with the 64th overall pick and signed him in the second round for $1 million.
Melton is loaded with tools but comes with questions about how his hitting ability will translate to pro ball because he has an aggressive approach and unorthodox hitting mechanics. His left-handed swing has a lot of moving parts, but he has consistently barreled balls the past two years without showing any obvious weakness at the plate. His strength and bat speed give him at least plus raw power that plays to all fields.
A quality athlete, Melton has at least plus speed and will flash plus-plus run times on occasion. He uses his quickness well, stealing and taking extra bases and covering ground in center field. He should be able to stick in center but also has the solid arm strength and offensive profile to shift to right field if needed, perhaps in deference to Houston 2022 first-rounder Drew Gilbert.
After a stellar high school career at South Bedford High School in Oregon, Melton began his college career at Linn-Benton Community College, also in the Beaver State. From there, Melton moved on to Oregon State and after barely playing in the shortened 2020 season, he hit .404 over 32 games in 2021. He’s continued to swing the bat well in 2022 while becoming the everyday center fielder.
Melton has the chance to do some damage from the left side of the plate. He has an advanced approach at the plate and makes a ton of contact. He also has a good amount of juice to his pull side, and he’s tapped into that power even more in 2022, leading some scouts to think he might have better than average pop in the future. A plus runner, Melton can take the extra base and is an efficient basestealer as well.
In 2021, Melton showed that not only is he capable of playing center and the outfield corners, but he saw a good amount of time at first base as well. He has a good chance of sticking up the middle now, however, with a strong enough arm for right should the need arise.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Note: xHR tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about how positioning is defined here
