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Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2020 1 1 8.53 4 4 0 19.0 9 1.63
11 Seasons 90 77 4.38 240 227 1 1347.2 963 1.36
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2020 4 1-1 8.53 19.0 9 1.63
11 Seasons 240 90-77 4.38 1347.2 963 1.36

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 28 1529 310 21 6.8 89.5 113.3 8.4 29.7 .258 .407 .344 .329 .349 37.4 15.3 8 5.07 4.74
2016 29 2310 520 35 6.7 90.7 118 5.2 32.1 .257 .430 .330 .313 .363 41 18.6 4.1 4.17 4.28
2017 30 2677 611 40 6.5 89.5 112.4 9.1 33.9 .271 .461 .330 .328 .374 36.8 16.7 4.6 4.14 4.77
2018 31 2529 530 42 7.9 90 115.3 11 33.2 .265 .459 .327 .330 .377 38.7 16.7 5.1 4.19 4.73
2019 32 3005 635 45 7.1 88.8 118.9 11 34 .286 .461 .351 .342 .373 38.2 14.1 5.8 4.72 5.38
2020 33 284 70 7 10 90.2 112.8 6 28.6 .311 .578 .358 .408 .423 41.4 10.2 10.2 8.53 7.79
12334 2676 190 7.1 89.7 118.9 9.1 32.8 .270 .451 .337 .331 .371 38.5 16.1 5.4
6.6 88.3 122.2 12 32.9 .243 .403 .317 .313 .363 35.4 22 8.4

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Nova relies on 4 pitches.
Sinker
(40.1%) ,
Curveball
(25.4%) ,
4-Seam Fastball
(19%) ,
Changeup
(15.5%) ,


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Pitch Tracking

Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway%
2020 Sinker 114 48 66 40.1 92.1 41 35 11 7 2 0 2 1 34 .314 .353 .543 .677 .410 .474 88.9 3 2132 6.0 10.3 6.7
2020 Curveball 72 43 29 25.4 79.6 18 17 2 1 0 0 1 7 10 .118 .200 .294 .471 .198 .301 90.2 29 2213 5.9 47.4 30.4
2020 4-Seam Fastball 54 28 26 19.0 92.3 19 17 9 6 2 0 1 1 16 .529 .331 .824 .610 .587 .424 93.5 9 2277 6.0 0.0 11.1
2020 Changeup 44 3 41 15.5 86.4 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 .000 .321 .000 .356 .000 .297 77.4 -10 2041 6.1 16.7 0.0
2019 Sinker 1071 649 422 36.4 92.3 346 312 103 73 17 0 13 40 274 .330 .295 .510 .466 .382 .355 88.5 4 2162 5.9 10.6 13.4
2019 4-Seam Fastball 527 146 381 17.9 92.5 118 110 34 22 7 0 5 9 101 .309 .299 .509 .504 .364 .361 89.0 22 2246 5.8 11.1 8.0
2019 Curveball 494 168 326 16.8 79.9 80 75 23 14 8 0 1 15 62 .307 .324 .453 .466 .325 .361 91.2 23 2257 5.5 31.3 13.6
2019 Changeup 465 114 351 15.8 86.2 123 114 32 20 8 0 4 11 105 .281 .297 .456 .467 .323 .344 86.2 11 2000 6.1 23.3 11.1
2019 Cutter 389 341 48 13.2 86.7 119 113 27 17 3 0 7 37 76 .239 .258 .451 .477 .304 .326 88.8 12 2142 5.8 34.3 20.1
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel %
2015 51.6 18.7 24.2 5.5 39.4 36.5 24.2 3.5 38.7 22.3 22.6 3.5 6.8
2016 55.4 17.1 24 3.5 39.2 38.7 22.1 2.1 42.5 14.8 22.3 6.7 6.7
2017 47.6 19.1 28.3 4.9 38.6 39.9 21.4 3.6 33.7 19.3 24.9 6.4 6.5
2018 46.6 23.2 24.5 5.7 35.8 38.5 25.5 1.7 35.3 23.8 24 5.7 7.9
2019 46.6 19.4 27.6 6.5 41.7 38.1 20.2 4.1 33.4 21.3 25.5 5 7.1
2020 57.1 20 21.4 1.4 37.1 50 12.9 7.1 42.9 11.4 18.6 8.6 10
49.4 19.6 25.9 5.1 39 38.8 22.2 3.1 36.5 19.9 23.9 5.7 7.1
45.1 22.5 25.4 7.1 36.6 37.8 25.5 3.7 33.2 24.4 24.4 5.7 6.6

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2020 4-Seamer DET R 54 92.3 21.3 -5.7 -37 10.9 4.4 68
2020 Changeup DET R 44 86.4 30.6 1.8 6 15.5 2.3 17
2020 Curveball DET R 72 79.6 48.4 -5.1 -10 4.5 -3.2 -41
2020 Sinker DET R 114 92.1 25.4 3.7 17 16.5 2.1 15
2019 Curveball CWS R 494 79.9 50.5 -3.1 -6 2.8 -4.4 -61
2019 Sinker CWS R 1071 92.3 25.5 3.2 14 17.2 2.5 17
2019 Changeup CWS R 465 86.2 29.8 0.5 2 16.5 3.2 24
2019 Cutter CWS R 389 86.7 28.9 0.1 0 3.6 -5.9 -260
2019 4-Seamer CWS R 527 92.5 20.8 -4.6 -28 12.4 5.4 76
2018 Curveball PIT R 533 80.6 50.1 -3.2 -6 2.9 -4.5 -61
2018 Sinker PIT R 898 92.7 25.4 3.5 16 17.9 3.3 22
2018 4-Seamer PIT R 797 93 19.3 -3.3 -20 13.6 6.3 85
2018 Changeup PIT R 300 86.5 30.4 0.7 2 16.8 3.5 26
2017 Curveball PIT R 570 80.6 48.7 -3.1 -6 1.6 -5.1 -76
2017 Sinker PIT R 1102 92.5 24 3.6 18 18.4 3.4 23
2017 4-Seamer PIT R 649 93.1 17.4 -3.1 -22 12.6 4.7 59
2017 Changeup PIT R 253 86.4 27.3 0.1 0 16.9 3.7 28
2016 4-Seamer PIT R 282 93.4 17.1 -3.5 -25 11.4 3 35
2016 Curveball PIT R 630 80.6 47.8 -3 -6 3.6 -2.2 -38
2016 Sinker PIT R 1158 93.1 21 2.5 14 16.6 2.2 15
2016 Slider PIT R 64 87.3 26.8 -3.8 -12 4.9 -7.5 -288
2016 Changeup PIT R 102 86.9 25.4 -1.1 -4 14.7 1.7 13
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2020 Changeup -3.6 -2 44 15.5 10 0 0 0 16.7 0 0 .321 .356 .297 10
2020 Curveball -1.6 -1 72 25.4 18 .118 .294 .2 47.4 38.9 30.4 .2 .471 .301 40
2020 4-Seamer 8.9 5 54 19 19 .529 .824 .595 0 5.3 11.1 .331 .61 .424 56.3
2020 Sinker 3.2 4 114 40.1 41 .314 .543 .415 10.3 2.4 6.7 .353 .677 .474 44.1
2019 Curveball 1.1 5 504 16.8 82 .299 .442 .326 31.3 19.5 14 .316 .454 .352 41.9
2019 4-Seamer -0.3 -2 528 17.6 118 .309 .509 .382 11.1 7.6 8 .299 .504 .361 38.6
2019 Cutter 1.9 7 391 13 120 .246 .456 .318 34.2 30.8 20 .256 .473 .324 36.8
2019 Changeup -0.2 -1 481 16 130 .273 .446 .331 22.4 8.5 10.6 .28 .44 .326 28.6
2019 Sinker 0.6 7 1101 36.6 355 .333 .508 .409 10.6 11.5 13.4 .287 .453 .348 41.2
2018 Changeup 1.7 5 300 11.9 70 .353 .588 .447 29 10 12.7 .244 .441 .316 31.1
2018 Curveball -0.7 -4 533 21.1 140 .153 .277 .189 37.7 42.9 22.7 .171 .283 .2 32.1
2018 4-Seamer 0.2 2 797 31.5 194 .275 .506 .36 11.8 11.9 12 .291 .546 .377 44.3
2018 Sinker -0.2 -1 898 35.5 275 .302 .49 .375 14.3 8.7 13.2 .302 .499 .369 39.1
2017 Changeup 0.3 1 253 9.5 64 .333 .635 .427 29.4 9.4 18.2 .325 .54 .368 28.1
2017 Curveball -1.4 -8 570 21.3 144 .152 .268 .197 44.2 53.5 30 .142 .237 .179 29
2017 4-Seamer 1.8 12 649 24.2 173 .295 .545 .387 9.9 9.2 10.4 .307 .57 .392 35.7
2017 Sinker -0.2 -2 1102 41.2 376 .307 .473 .367 9.5 7.2 13.5 .317 .521 .373 40.2
2017 N/A 1 0 0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 37 86.4 100 17.1 2:00 2:30 -30
2020 Curveball 66 79.5 63 9 7:00 7:00 0
2020 4-Seam Fastball 42 92.3 87 15.3 1:45 1:45 0
2020 Sinker 96 92.2 88 18.3 1:45 2:30 -45
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2010 182 656 -5 -4 5 3 -1
2011 735 2677 -18 -14 12 11 -9
2012 744 2675 4 0 8 11 23
2013 582 2079 -11 -15 2 10 -14
2014 96 328 4 1 1 3 9
2015 413 1528 1 -6 6 6 6
2016 683 2308 6 -23 3 9 -5
2017 757 2575 -7 -14 17 7 3
2018 679 2528 -6 -12 14 6 2
2019 786 2945 -5 -11 20 13 17
2020 88 284 4 -1 2 1 6
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 1529 43.8 62.2 90.4 34.6 68.7 42.5 55 46.7 17.5 6.1 71
2016 2310 46.1 66 90.6 35.3 60.9 42.7 61.7 49.5 20.3 5.8 70.9
2017 2677 50.7 68.5 87.7 31.8 65.3 42.5 64.5 50.5 17.9 8.1 76
2018 2529 47 70.4 86.9 29.8 61.9 42.7 57.4 48.9 19.6 7 73.6
2019 3005 46.9 69.4 87.9 30.8 66.6 43.2 60.7 48.9 18.4 6.6 78.4
2020 284 44.4 74.6 89.4 31 61.2 44.4 60.2 50.4 19.6 7 85
12334 47.1 68 88.4 32.2 64.4 42.8 60.4 49.1 18.8 6.8 74.8
48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.5 42.6 60.6 47 24.6 7.2 76

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2015 16 22 28 39 15 29 14 13 12 16 41 12 16 65 42 66
2016 41 30 26 25 68 10 32 3 5 32 97 27 41 57 36 35
2017 29 17 17 21 57 3 38 5 17 17 96 9 29 51 42 36
2018 23 15 9 10 50 2 22 10 21 15 93 12 23 53 47 22
2019 19 6 21 43 23 2 46 45 36 3 83 6 19 27 31 19
2020 2 1 1 2 5 38 16 17 23 1 33 9 2 40 30 16
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 23.3 30 25.2 5 13 19 12 40
2020 26 4 5.4 -1 4 2 1 25

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 30 28 30 28 29 24 26 31 23 23 28 25 17 22 20 30 20 32 18 30 16 23 21 25 25 29 28 21 30 23 30
2020 4 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 7 3 6 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 5 6
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights and distances, but does not attempt to adjust for environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 93.6 93.2 -0.4 92.8 -0.4 92.9 0.1 91.3 -1.6 92.2 0.9 undefined
Offspeed Velocity 87.3 86.9 -0.4 86.4 -0.5 86.5 0.1 86.2 -0.3 86.4 0.2 undefined
Breaking Velocity 80.5 81.2 0.7 80.6 -0.6 80.6 0 79.9 -0.7 79.6 -0.3 undefined
Exit Velocity 89.5 90.7 1.2 89.5 -1.2 90 0.5 88.8 -1.2 90.2 1.4 undefined
Launch Angle 8.4 5.2 -3.2 9.1 3.9 11 1.9 11 0 6 -5 undefined
Barrel % 6.8 6.7 -0.1 6.5 -0.2 7.9 1.4 7.1 -0.8 10 2.9 undefined
Hard Hit % 37.4 41 3.6 36.8 -4.2 38.7 1.9 38.2 -0.5 41.4 3.2 undefined
Sweet Spot % 29.7 32.1 2.4 33.9 1.8 33.2 -0.7 34 0.8 28.6 -5.4 undefined
xBA .258 .257 -0.001 .271 0.014 .265 -0.006 .286 0.021 .311 0.025 undefined
BA .269 .275 0.006 .277 0.002 .268 -0.009 .303 0.035 .278 -0.025 undefined
xwOBA .329 .313 -0.016 .328 0.015 .33 0.002 .342 0.012 .408 0.066 undefined
wOBA .344 .33 -0.014 .33 0 .327 -0.003 .351 0.024 .358 0.007 undefined
xSLG .407 .43 0.023 .461 0.031 .459 -0.002 .461 0.002 .578 0.117 undefined
SLG .454 .465 0.011 .464 -0.001 .459 -0.005 .483 0.024 .481 -0.002 undefined
K% 15.3 18.6 3.3 16.7 -1.9 16.7 0 14.1 -2.6 10.2 -3.9 undefined
BB% 8 4.1 -3.9 4.6 0.5 5.1 0.5 5.8 0.7 10.2 4.4 undefined
Swing % 46.7 49.5 2.8 50.5 1 48.9 -1.6 48.9 0 50.4 1.5 undefined
Whiff% 17.5 20.3 2.8 17.9 -2.4 19.6 1.7 18.4 -1.2 19.6 1.2 undefined
In Zone % 43.8 46.1 2.3 50.7 4.6 47 -3.7 46.9 -0.1 44.4 -2.5 undefined
Out of Zone % 56.2 53.9 -2.3 49.3 -4.6 53 3.7 53.1 0.1 55.6 2.5 undefined
Out of Zone Swing % 34.6 35.3 0.7 31.8 -3.5 29.8 -2 30.8 1 31 0.2 undefined
First Pitch Swing % 26.9 30.3 3.4 35 4.7 29.4 -5.6 32.1 2.7 33 0.9 undefined
First Pitch Strike % 55 61.7 6.7 64.5 2.8 57.4 -7.1 60.7 3.3 60.2 -0.5 undefined
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2016 670 .328 381 56 14.7 289 77 26.6
2017 756 .330 401 31 7.7 355 66 18.6
2018 679 .327 349 44 12.6 330 77 23.3
2019 786 .352 391 54 13.8 395 211 53.4
2020 79 .356 31 13 41.9 48 38 79.2

Pitch Distribution