Daniel Lynch IV
P | Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 6" 200LBS | Age: 27
Draft: 2018 | Rd: 1C, #34, Kansas City Royals | Virginia
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 4 6 5.69 15 15 0 68 55 1.63
2022 4 13 5.13 27 27 0 131.2 122 1.57
2023 3 4 4.64 9 9 0 52.1 34 1.26
3 Seasons 11 23 5.18 51 51 0 252 211 1.52
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 15 4-6 5.69 68 55 1.63
2022 27 4-13 5.13 131.2 122 1.57
2023 9 3-4 4.64 52.1 34 1.26
3 Seasons 51 11-23 5.18 252 211 1.52
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 24 1257 221 23 10.4 7.4 90.7 114.5 14.5 33.5 .287 .491 .360 .376 .419 44.3 17.7 10.0 5.69 6.31
2022 25 2435 421 37 8.8 6.2 91.2 114.6 12.8 33.7 .276 .450 .352 .345 .400 47.7 20.3 8.7 5.13 5.07
2023 26 808 172 13 7.6 5.8 88.2 110.7 18.7 29.7 .269 .466 .312 .340 .372 32.0 15.2 7.2 4.64 4.96
Player 4500 814 73 9.0 6.4 90.4 114.6 14.5 32.8 .278 .464 .346 .353 .399 43.5 18.6 8.7
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.3 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Lynch relies on 5 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(42.6%) ,
Changeup
(27.8%) ,
Slider
(18.8%) ,
Curveball
(8.5%) ,
Sinker
(2.2%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 39.8 26.7 25.3 8.1 33.5 37.6 29.0 3.6 26.7 26.2 26.7 6.3 10.4 7.4
2022 43.0 24.5 26.6 5.9 39.9 35.6 24.5 3.8 29.7 24.0 27.3 6.2 8.8 6.2
2023 39.5 32.6 16.9 11.0 39.0 36.0 25.0 2.9 26.2 30.8 25.6 6.4 7.6 5.8
Player 41.4 26.8 24.2 7.6 38.0 36.2 25.8 3.6 28.1 26.0 26.8 6.3 9.0 6.4
MLB 44.6 23.5 24.9 7.0 37.0 37.6 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 Slider KC L 152 87.6 29.4 -4.0 -12 2.1 -2.0 -49
2023 Changeup KC L 225 84.1 29.8 -2.6 -8 12.0 -2.2 -16
2023 Sinker KC L 18 92.4 20.1 -3.2 -14 12.7 -2.4 -16
2023 Curveball KC L 69 80.7 42.8 -9.4 -18 7.4 -0.2 -3
2023 4-Seamer KC L 344 92.6 15.5 0.2 1 4.8 -1.8 -27
2022 4-Seamer KC L 1,043 94.0 15.2 -0.7 -5 6.8 -0.3 -5
2022 Curveball KC L 147 81.6 45.4 -5.5 -11 1.7 -5.8 -78
2022 Sinker KC L 83 93.4 19.2 -2.4 -11 13.9 -1.0 -7
2022 Slider KC L 720 86.0 33.6 -1.3 -4 0.4 -4.4 -92
2022 Changeup KC L 441 84.8 27.7 -4.0 -13 13.2 -1.2 -8
2021 Slider KC L 360 85.2 36.4 0.6 2 0.2 -4.8 -96
2021 4-Seamer KC L 509 93.8 15.8 -1.3 -9 7.3 0.4 5
2021 Curveball KC L 34 77.4 49.2 -7.6 -13 0.1 -7.7 -98
2021 Sinker KC L 149 93.2 18.5 -2.5 -12 13.7 -0.9 -6
2021 Changeup KC L 205 84.7 26.0 -4.1 -14 12.8 -0.9 -6
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 4-Seamer -1.4 -5 344 42.6 92 .284 .531 .379 16.7 12.0 14.1 .280 .504 .371 38.0
2023 Changeup 4.3 10 225 27.8 68 .125 .156 .163 34.7 19.1 20.3 .211 .311 .244 19.2
2023 Slider -0.1 0 152 18.8 46 .238 .452 .348 28.8 21.7 17.9 .254 .474 .342 31.3
2023 Curveball -2.2 -2 69 8.5 12 .417 .667 .467 22.7 0.0 0.0 .401 .660 .448 50.0
2023 Sinker -17.7 -3 18 2.2 5 .800 1.400 .940 0.0 0.0 0.0 .636 1.281 .809 40.0
2022 4-Seamer -0.1 -1 1,043 42.8 252 .303 .425 .378 19.4 17.1 14.2 .300 .485 .377 51.7
2022 Slider -1.8 -13 720 29.6 182 .270 .522 .376 32.8 29.1 18.9 .262 .448 .340 51.4
2022 Changeup 0.7 3 442 18.2 125 .239 .368 .291 26.9 18.4 14.5 .226 .342 .270 32.6
2022 Curveball -2.5 -4 147 6.0 21 .500 .700 .531 25.5 0.0 0.0 .356 .605 .428 60.0
2022 Sinker -1.7 -1 83 3.4 18 .389 .556 .411 18.2 16.7 75.0 .361 .570 .399 53.3
2021 4-Seamer -1.1 -6 509 40.5 135 .385 .581 .434 12.2 8.9 9.1 .367 .616 .454 46.8
2021 Slider -0.2 -1 360 28.6 99 .193 .253 .286 42.2 35.4 22.9 .201 .328 .303 41.7
2021 Changeup -3.9 -8 205 16.3 40 .368 .658 .449 33.3 10.0 7.4 .230 .353 .273 32.4
2021 Sinker 0.1 0 149 11.9 32 .179 .429 .324 16.4 9.4 11.5 .319 .692 .448 53.8
2021 Curveball 2.9 1 34 2.7 5 .000 .000 .000 30.0 20.0 100.0 .105 .172 .114 50.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2023 Changeup 223 84.1 93 14.9 10:15 10:00 15
2023 4-Seam Fastball 323 92.6 87 16.5 11:00 11:30 -30
2023 Knuckle Curve 64 80.8 32 8.3 4:15 3:30 45
2023 Sinker 18 92.4 83 17.3 11:00 10:15 45
2023 Slider 138 87.6 43 6.0 12:00 12:45 -45
2022 Changeup 440 84.8 99 16.7 10:00 10:00 0
2022 4-Seam Fastball 1,039 94.0 90 16.7 11:00 11:15 -15
2022 Knuckle Curve 142 81.6 39 7.1 4:15 5:30 -75
2022 Sinker 82 93.4 88 18.5 10:45 10:15 30
2022 Slider 671 86.0 15 2.6 11:15 12:45 -90
2021 Changeup 204 84.7 99 17.4 10:00 10:15 -15
2021 4-Seam Fastball 505 93.8 91 16.5 11:00 11:00 0
2021 Knuckle Curve 34 77.4 42 6.1 4:45 6:00 -75
2021 Sinker 148 93.2 90 18.9 11:00 10:15 45
2021 Slider 349 85.2 12 1.8 2:15 4:30 -135
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 311 1,257 -5 11 -11 -8 -13
2022 598 2,434 0 5 -12 -9 -16
2023 223 808 -2 8 -4 -3 0
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 1,257 47.6 70.4 83.4 27.0 50.0 44.8 55.6 47.7 25.9 7.5 78.7
2022 2,435 49.1 72.4 81.9 28.3 55.8 41.5 58.9 49.9 25.4 8.4 76.5
2023 808 47.9 70.0 84.5 29.2 54.5 44.6 64.1 48.8 24.6 7.7 75.8
Player 4,500 48.4 71.4 82.8 28.1 54.0 43.0 59.0 49.1 25.4 8.0 76.9
MLB 48.6 67.0 82.0 28.5 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2021 3 5 7 13 4 34 12 10 12 12 27 47 39 53 23 75
2022 10 6 11 18 11 10 24 2 1 32 38 50 37 52 23 6 92
2023 20 18 15 17 43 65 54 67 91 5 68 39 54 27 27 12 95
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2021 23.5 9 12.8 -4 4 10 6 66.7
2022 24.0 21 23.6 -3 12 15 10 47.6
2023 22.8 9 11.0 -2 4 6 6 66.7
Player 23.6 39 47.5 -9 20 31 22 56.4

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2021 9 14 13 12 11 11 14 14 7 9 11 12 16 13 13 14 12 11 16 11 15 14 16 15 13 12 14 14 15 11 12
2022 21 20 22 23 25 26 27 18 18 20 20 28 25 21 24 25 23 20 24 24 24 26 28 27 20 21 29 29 28 24 20
2023 9 8 10 12 11 12 12 10 11 9 10 12 10 9 12 12 12 10 13 11 11 12 13 15 8 10 11 11 13 10 10
Player 39 42 45 47 47 49 53 42 36 38 41 52 51 43 49 51 47 41 53 46 50 52 57 57 41 43 54 54 56 45 42
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2021 2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 93.7 94.0 0.3 92.6 -1.4
Offspeed Velocity 84.7 84.8 0.1 84.1 -0.7
Breaking Velocity 84.5 85.3 0.8 85.4 0.1
Exit Velocity 90.7 91.2 0.5 88.2 -3.0
Launch Angle 14.5 12.8 -1.7 18.7 5.9
Barrel % 10.4 8.8 -1.6 7.6 -1.2
Hard Hit % 44.3 47.7 3.4 32.0 -15.7
Sweet Spot % 33.5 33.7 0.2 29.7 -4.0
xBA .287 .276 -0.011 .269 -0.007
BA .295 .290 -0.005 .245 -0.045
xwOBA .376 .345 -0.031 .340 -0.005
wOBA .360 .352 -0.008 .312 -0.040
xSLG .491 .450 -0.041 .466 0.016
SLG .465 .456 -0.009 .426 -0.030
K% 17.7 20.3 2.6 15.2 -5.1
BB% 10.0 8.7 -1.3 7.2 -1.5
Swing % 47.7 49.9 2.2 48.8 -1.1
Whiff% 25.9 25.4 -0.5 24.6 -0.8
In Zone % 47.6 49.1 1.5 47.9 -1.2
Out of Zone % 52.4 50.9 -1.5 52.1 1.2
Out of Zone Swing % 27.0 28.3 1.3 29.2 0.9
First Pitch Swing % 30.5 33.1 2.6 34.5 1.4
First Pitch Strike % 55.6 58.9 3.3 64.1 5.2
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 295 .350 259 69 26.6 36 16 44.4
2022 Shifts 598 .352 522 94 18.0 76 29 38.2
2023 Shades 223 .312 191 70 36.6 32 11 34.4
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 322 15.5 43.5% 0.6% 228 22.2 0.9% 3.9%
2022 654 15.4 43.1% 0.6% 406 20.9 1.7% 4.2%
2023 207 13.1 82.1% 0.5% 145 17.4 13.1% 0.7%
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Pitch Distribution