P | Kansas City Royals
Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 6" 200 lbs | Age: 29
Draft: 2018 | Rd. 1C, No. 34, Kansas City Royals | Virginia
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 3 4 4.64 9 9 0 52.1 34 1.26
2024 2 0 3.32 16 3 1 43.1 39 0.99
2025 6 2 3.06 57 2 1 67.2 45 1.36
5 Seasons 19 25 4.56 124 56 2 363 295 1.43
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 9 3-4 4.64 52.1 34 1.26
2024 16 2-0 3.32 43.1 39 0.99
2025 57 6-2 3.06 67.2 45 1.36
5 Seasons 124 19-25 4.56 363 295 1.43
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 24 1257 221 23 10.4 7.4 90.7 114.5 14.5 33.5 .287 .490 .360 .375 .418 44.3 17.7 10.0 5.69 6.32
2022 25 2435 421 37 8.8 6.2 91.2 114.6 12.8 33.7 .276 .450 .352 .345 .400 47.7 20.3 8.7 5.13 5.07
2023 26 808 172 13 7.6 5.8 88.2 110.7 18.7 29.7 .269 .466 .312 .340 .372 32.0 15.2 7.2 4.64 4.96
2024 27 631 117 11 9.4 6.3 90.2 111.6 11.5 30.8 .213 .380 .274 .303 .341 47.9 22.3 8.6 3.32 3.83
2025 28 1088 212 17 8.0 5.9 88.6 116.0 10.4 28.3 .255 .411 .327 .328 .344 42.5 15.6 9.0 3.06 4.55
Player 6219 1143 101 8.8 6.3 90.1 116.0 13.4 31.8 .266 .445 .335 .343 .383 43.7 18.5 8.8
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .245 .404 .315 .315 .368 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Lynch relies on 5 pitches.
Slider
(29.2%) ,
Four Seamer
(22.7%) ,
Changeup
(19.2%) ,
Sinker
(19.0%) ,
Knuckle Curve
(9.8%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2021 39.8 60.2 26.7 25.3 8.1 33.5 37.6 29.0 18.6 14.5 6.8 14.9 23.1 22.2
2022 43.0 57.0 24.5 26.6 5.9 39.9 35.6 24.5 21.6 16.9 4.5 18.3 18.8 20.0
2023 39.5 60.5 32.6 16.9 11.0 39.0 36.0 25.0 21.5 15.7 2.3 17.4 20.3 22.7
2024 46.2 53.8 28.2 20.5 5.1 41.0 44.4 14.5 20.5 24.8 0.9 20.5 19.7 13.7
2025 49.1 50.9 25.0 18.4 7.5 40.1 38.7 21.2 25.9 16.5 6.6 14.2 22.2 14.6
Player 43.3 56.7 26.6 22.7 7.3 38.7 37.5 23.8 21.7 17.0 4.6 17.0 20.6 19.2
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.0 24.7 7.1 37.4 37.4 25.1 20.6 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 3.6 26.7 26.2 26.7 6.3 10.4 7.4
2022 3.8 29.7 24.0 27.3 6.2 8.8 6.2
2023 2.9 26.2 30.8 25.6 6.4 7.6 5.8
2024 4.3 35.9 26.5 17.1 6.8 9.4 6.3
2025 6.1 35.4 24.5 21.7 3.8 8.0 5.9
Player 4.1 30.3 25.8 24.8 5.9 8.8 6.3
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 4-Seam Fastball KC L 247 94.1 16.2 -1.5 10.2ARM 2.9 14.8 -1.0 10.2ARM 2.1
2025 Changeup KC L 209 86.0 35.1 2.4 15.1ARM 0.7 1.9 3.3 15.1ARM 0.9
2025 Curveball KC L 107 82.6 42.7 -8.0 3.1GLV -4.2 -2.8 -6.8 3.1GLV -4.7
2025 Sinker KC L 207 93.8 22.8 0.0 16.7ARM 1.5 8.3 -0.8 16.7ARM 1.3
2025 Slider KC L 318 86.8 32.6 -1.9 1.9GLV -2.5 3.6 -1.6 1.9GLV -2.2
2024 Cutter KC L 3 89.6 25.7 0.4 2.2ARM -4.9 8.2 1.0 2.2ARM -4.2
2024 Slider KC L 169 85.9 33.1 -2.3 1.4GLV -3.1 3.9 -2.4 1.4GLV -3.4
2024 Curveball KC L 38 80.4 45.7 -7.0 1.5GLV -6.4 -3.7 -4.8 1.5GLV -5.6
2024 Changeup KC L 134 84.7 33.9 2.0 13.9ARM 0.0 4.1 1.8 13.9ARM -0.2
2024 4-Seam Fastball KC L 224 92.9 16.5 -1.2 8.4ARM 1.5 15.1 -0.6 8.4ARM 0.3
2024 Sinker KC L 63 92.7 22.6 -0.3 15.2ARM 0.6 9.1 -0.9 15.2ARM 0.1
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 Slider 0.5 1 318 29.2 74 .239 .284 .275 29.9 23.0 17.0 .229 .337 .287 52.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball -0.9 -2 247 22.7 61 .245 .408 .362 15.2 8.2 8.8 .228 .404 .352 38.6
2025 Changeup -0.3 -1 209 19.2 70 .242 .439 .303 26.5 20.0 21.9 .288 .476 .339 37.7
2025 Sinker -0.7 -1 207 19.0 67 .276 .414 .338 12.5 11.9 19.5 .239 .383 .317 37.3
2025 Curveball -0.5 -1 107 9.8 16 .429 .714 .503 23.7 6.3 6.7 .381 .601 .440 57.1
2024 4-Seam Fastball -0.5 -1 224 35.5 71 .226 .484 .338 13.3 9.9 14.6 .241 .466 .344 51.8
2024 Slider 0.2 0 169 26.8 38 .133 .267 .262 50.6 42.1 25.4 .149 .336 .306 66.7
2024 Changeup 1.0 1 134 21.2 38 .222 .306 .279 31.9 23.7 23.7 .227 .332 .268 44.4
2024 Sinker 6.2 4 63 10.0 22 .095 .095 .155 13.8 22.7 35.7 .195 .231 .211 12.5
2024 Curveball 0.7 0 38 6.0 6 .200 .400 .325 33.3 33.3 66.7 .214 .562 .381 100.0
2024 Cutter -0.1 0 3 0.5 -- -- -- 0.0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- --
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 Changeup 202 86.0 94 16.1 9:45 9:00 45
2025 4-Seam Fastball 245 94.1 94 17.7 10:30 10:45 -15
2025 Knuckle Curve 107 82.6 31 5.9 3:45 4:45 -60
2025 Sinker 207 93.8 90 19.0 10:30 9:45 45
2025 Slider 315 86.8 17 3.5 12:15 1:30 -75
2024 Changeup 133 84.7 95 15.1 9:45 9:15 30
2024 4-Seam Fastball 220 93.0 94 16.9 10:45 11:00 -15
2024 Knuckle Curve 38 80.4 32 6.0 4:15 5:30 -75
2024 Sinker 62 92.7 88 17.9 10:45 10:00 45
2024 Slider 162 85.8 19 3.5 12:00 1:15 -75
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 311 1,257 -5 10 -10 -7 -12
2022 598 2,435 2 0 -16 -9 -22
2023 223 808 0 9 -4 -3 1
2024 175 631 5 7 -3 -3 5
2025 288 1,088 10 0 -7 -5 -3
Player 1,595 6,219 11 25 -41 11 -31
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 1,257 47.6 70.4 84.1 27.0 50.6 44.8 55.6 47.7 25.9 7.5 78.7
2022 2,435 49.0 72.4 82.1 28.3 56.1 41.5 58.9 49.9 25.4 8.4 76.5
2023 808 47.9 70.0 84.9 29.2 54.5 44.6 64.1 48.8 24.6 7.7 75.8
2024 631 51.2 65.9 82.6 26.0 42.5 38.2 60.0 46.4 28.3 9.2 79.3
2025 1,088 51.1 59.4 85.2 25.8 59.9 42.8 61.1 42.9 22.3 7.4 70.0
Player 6,219 49.2 68.6 83.4 27.5 54.1 42.5 59.5 47.7 25.2 8.0 76.1
MLB 48.9 67.0 82.5 28.4 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2021 3 5 7 13 4 34 12 10 12 12 27 47 39 52 23 75
2022 10 6 10 19 11 10 24 2 1 32 38 50 37 52 23 6 92
2023 20 18 15 17 43 65 54 67 91 5 68 39 54 27 27 12 95
2024 31 33 67
2025 24 27 35 45 15 55 57 66 32 5 32 25 20 43 21 9 70
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2021 23.48 9 12.8 -4 4 9 7 77.8
2022 24.01 21 23.6 -3 12 15 10 47.6
2023 22.79 9 11.0 -2 4 6 6 66.7
2024 23.23 6 7.4 -1 2 5 4 66.7
2025 24.03 8 7.6 0 5 7 2 25.0
Player 23.63 53 62.4 -9 27 42 29 54.7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2021 9 14 13 12 11 10 14 13 8 9 10 12 16 13 13 14 12 11 15 12 15 14 16 15 13 12 14 14 15 11 13
2022 21 19 21 23 24 26 27 18 18 21 20 27 25 21 24 25 23 20 25 25 24 25 28 28 21 21 28 29 28 24 20
2023 9 8 10 12 11 11 12 10 11 9 10 12 10 9 12 13 12 10 13 11 11 12 13 15 8 10 11 11 14 10 10
2024 6 7 6 5 8 8 9 5 8 6 9 8 6 6 8 5 7 6 9 9 7 9 9 10 4 8 8 8 8 8 8
2025 8 10 6 6 8 9 5 8 3 7 5 6 9 11 9 6 10 9 6 8 8 7 9 10 9 7 5 8 8 7 8
Player 53 58 56 58 62 64 67 54 48 52 54 65 66 60 66 63 64 56 68 65 65 67 75 78 55 58 66 70 73 60 59
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022 +/-   2021
Results
BA .260 +.072 .188 -.057 .245 -.045 .290 -.005 .295
xBA .255 +.042 .213 -.056 .269 -.007 .276 -.011 .287
OBP .341 +.067 .274 -.026 .300 -.055 .355 -.016 .371
xOBP .337 +.037 .300 -.023 .323 -.020 .343 -.026 .369
SLG .402 +.058 .344 -.082 .426 -.030 .456 -.009 .465
xSLG .411 +.031 .380 -.086 .466 +.016 .450 -.040 .490
ISO .142 -.014 .156 -.025 .181 +.015 .166 -.004 .170
xISO .156 -.012 .168 -.029 .197 +.024 .173 -.031 .204
BABIP .287 +.080 .207 -.045 .252 -.085 .337 +.001 .336
wOBA .327 +.053 .274 -.038 .312 -.040 .352 -.008 .360
xwOBA .328 +.025 .303 -.037 .340 -.005 .345 -.030 .375
wOBACON .342 +.044 .298 -.038 .336 -.074 .410 +.013 .397
xwOBACON .344 +.003 .341 -.031 .372 -.028 .400 -.018 .418
BACON .314 +.066 .248 -.043 .291 -.079 .370 +.006 .364
xBACON .309 +.023 .286 -.034 .320 -.034 .354 -.006 .360
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 42.5 -5.4 47.9 +15.9 32.0 -15.7 47.7 +3.4 44.3
Avg Exit Velocity 88.6 -1.6 90.2 +2.0 88.2 -3.0 91.2 +0.5 90.7
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 28.3 -2.5 30.8 +1.1 29.7 -4.0 33.7 +0.2 33.5
Barrel % 8.0 -1.4 9.4 +1.8 7.6 -1.2 8.8 -1.6 10.4
Avg Launch Angle 10.4 -1.1 11.5 -7.2 18.7 +5.9 12.8 -1.7 14.5
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 71.6 -1.3 72.9 +0.2 72.7 -- -- -- --
Attack Angle 11° -2° 13° -2° 15° -- -- -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 54.8 -1.1 55.9 +4.4 51.5 -- -- -- --
Attack Direction -3° +6° -9° +1° -10° -- -- -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 33° +2° 31° -1° 32° -- -- -- --
Swing Length 7.4 -0.1 7.5 -0.3 7.8 -- -- -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 93.9 +1.0 92.9 +0.3 92.6 -1.4 94.0 +0.3 93.7
Breaking Velocity 85.7 +0.8 84.9 -0.5 85.4 +0.1 85.3 +0.8 84.5
Offspeed Velocity 86.0 +1.3 84.7 +0.6 84.1 -0.7 84.8 +0.1 84.7
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 17 +6 11 -2 13 -24 37 +14 23
Popup % 7.5 +2.4 5.1 -5.9 11.0 +5.1 5.9 -2.2 8.1
Flyball % 25.0 -3.2 28.2 -4.4 32.6 +8.1 24.5 -2.2 26.7
Line Drive % 18.4 -2.1 20.5 +3.6 16.9 -9.7 26.6 +1.3 25.3
Groundball % 49.1 +2.9 46.2 +6.7 39.5 -3.5 43.0 +3.2 39.8
Pull % 40.1 -0.9 41.0 +2.0 39.0 -0.9 39.9 +6.4 33.5
Straight Away % 38.7 -5.7 44.4 +8.4 36.0 +0.4 35.6 -2.0 37.6
Opposite Field % 21.2 +6.7 14.5 -10.5 25.0 +0.5 24.5 -4.5 29.0
Weak Contact % 6.1 +1.8 4.3 +1.4 2.9 -0.9 3.8 +0.2 3.6
Pull Airball % 14.2 -6.3 20.5 +3.1 17.4 -0.9 18.3 +3.4 14.9
Topped Contact % 35.4 -0.5 35.9 +9.7 26.2 -3.5 29.7 +3.0 26.7
Under Contact % 24.5 -2.0 26.5 -4.3 30.8 +6.8 24.0 -2.2 26.2
Flare/Burner Contact % 21.7 +4.6 17.1 -8.5 25.6 -1.7 27.3 +0.6 26.7
Solid Contact % 3.8 -3.0 6.8 +0.4 6.4 +0.2 6.2 -0.1 6.3
HR/FB % 15.1 -3.1 18.2 +2.1 16.1 -4.3 20.4 +5.1 15.3
Popups 16 +10 6 -13 19 -6 25 +7 18
Flyballs 53 +20 33 -23 56 -47 103 +44 59
Line Drives 39 +15 24 -5 29 -83 112 +56 56
Groundballs 104 +50 54 -14 68 -113 181 +93 88
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 51.1 -0.1 51.2 +3.3 47.9 -1.1 49.0 +1.4 47.6
Out of Zone % 48.9 +0.1 48.8 -3.3 52.1 +1.1 51.0 -1.4 52.4
Edge % 42.8 +4.6 38.2 -6.4 44.6 +3.1 41.5 -3.3 44.8
Zone Swing % 59.4 -6.5 65.9 -4.1 70.0 -2.4 72.4 +2.0 70.4
Out of Zone Swing % 25.8 -0.2 26.0 -3.2 29.2 +0.9 28.3 +1.3 27.0
In Zone Contact % 85.2 +2.6 82.6 -2.3 84.9 +2.8 82.1 -2.0 84.1
Out of Zone Contact % 59.9 +17.4 42.5 -12.0 54.5 -1.6 56.1 +5.5 50.6
Whiff % 22.3 -6.0 28.3 +3.7 24.6 -0.8 25.4 -0.5 25.9
First Strike % 61.1 +1.1 60.0 -4.1 64.1 +5.2 58.9 +3.3 55.6
First Pitch Swing % 25.7 -1.7 27.4 -7.1 34.5 +1.4 33.1 +2.6 30.5
Swing % 42.9 -3.5 46.4 -2.4 48.8 -1.1 49.9 +2.2 47.7
Meatball Swing % 70.0 -9.3 79.3 +3.5 75.8 -0.7 76.5 -2.2 78.7
Meatball % 7.4 -1.8 9.2 +1.5 7.7 -0.7 8.4 +0.9 7.5
Zone Swing & Miss % 14.8 -2.6 17.4 +2.3 15.1 -2.8 17.9 +2.0 15.9
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 40.1 -17.4 57.5 +12.0 45.5 +1.6 43.9 -5.5 49.4
In Zone 556 +233 323 -64 387 -807 1,194 +596 598
Out of Zone 532 +224 308 -113 421 -820 1,241 +582 659
Edge 466 +225 241 -119 360 -651 1,011 +448 563
In Zone Swings 330 +117 213 -58 271 -593 864 +443 421
Out of Zone Swings 137 +57 80 -43 123 -228 351 +173 178
In Zone Swing & Misses 49 +12 37 -4 41 -114 155 +88 67
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 55 +9 46 -10 56 -98 154 +66 88
Basic
Pitches 1,088 +457 631 -177 808 -1,627 2,435 +1,178 1,257
PA 289 +114 175 -48 223 -377 600 +289 311
AB 254 +100 154 -50 204 -331 535 +264 271
Hits 66 +37 29 -21 50 -105 155 +75 80
Singles 46 +29 17 -15 32 -77 109 +55 54
Doubles 12 +6 6 -2 8 -16 24 +9 15
Triples 0 0 0 -1 1 0 1 -1 2
Home Runs 8 +2 6 -3 9 -12 21 +12 9
Walks 26 +11 15 -1 16 -36 52 +21 31
Strikeouts 45 +6 39 +5 34 -88 122 +67 55
K% 15.6 -6.7 22.3 +7.1 15.2 -5.1 20.3 +2.6 17.7
BB% 9.0 +0.4 8.6 +1.4 7.2 -1.5 8.7 -1.3 10.0
HBP 6 +2 4 +3 1 -4 5 +1 4
Batted Balls 212 +95 117 -55 172 -249 421 +200 221
Number of Fastballs 454 +164 290 -72 362 -764 1,126 +468 658
Number of Offspeed 209 +75 134 -92 226 -216 442 +237 205
Number of Breaking 425 +218 207 -13 220 -647 867 +473 394
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 311 .360 275 13 4.7 36 14 38.9
2022 Shifts 598 .352 522 46 8.8 76 20 26.3
2023 Shades 223 .312 191 70 36.6 32 11 34.4
2024 Shades 175 .274 124 4 3.2 51 18 35.3
2025 Shades 288 .327 165 6 3.6 123 27 22.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 322 15.5 43.5% 0.6% 228 22.2 0.9% 3.9%
2022 654 15.4 43.1% 0.6% 406 20.9 1.7% 4.2%
2023 207 13.1 82.1% 0.5% 145 17.4 13.1% 0.7%
2024 166 12.6 90.4% 0.0% 118 16.6 19.5% 0.0%
2025 296 12.6 81.1% 0.3% 231 16.0 28.1% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution