Only one New Jersey high school right-handed pitcher has been drafted in the first round since 2007, Rick Porcello, and only three prep pitchers from the Garden State total during that timespan, with lefties Rob Kaminsky and Jay Groome in 2013 and 2016. After showing off one of the best arms on the high school showcase circuit all summer and dominating New Jersey prep competition enough in the spring to be named the Gatorade state high school player of the year, Petty has the chance to join their ranks in 2021.
There are no questions about Petty’s pure stuff. He touched triple digits at the Area Code Games and sat regularly in the upper 90s across all the events he attended, throwing it with sink and run in on right-handed hitters. His upper-80s slider plays well off his fastball, running away from righties. Petty has a changeup that can be too firm at 90 mph at times, but he showed some depth with the pitch over the summer. He’s fearless on the mound and isn’t afraid to pitch inside.
The only questions surrounding Petty are around his size and delivery. There is some effort with a low three-quarters slot and his command has been up and down, leading some to feel there could be reliever risk in the 6-foot Florida recruit. He threw more consistent strikes as the summer went on and he’s athletic enough to believe he can start at the next level, with teams undeterred by the “undersized right-hander” label certain to keep tabs on him all spring.
A flame-thrower who touched 100 mph during his New Jersey high school days, Petty was a late first-round pick of the Twins in 2021. He had thrown just five innings after signing and was in his first Spring Training when he was shipped to the Reds in a trade for Sonny Gray. After an early dip in stuff, Petty climbed up the ladder while becoming a more complete pitcher and seeing his velocity return. He was off to a solid start at Triple-A (2.86 ERA through June) and had made three big league appearances when the wheels fell off, posting a 9.24 ERA the rest of the way with Louisville.
From a pure stuff standpoint, Petty was just fine in 2025. It’s the quality of stuff, especially in the zone, that suffered considerably. His fastball still averaged around 95 mph and sniffed triple digits, with the two-seamer continuing to get ground-ball contact. But Triple-A hitters hit .417 off the pitch from July 1 on, according to Synergy. His breaking stuff, an 89-90 mph cutterish gyro slider and a low-80s sweeper, still missed bats but not nearly as often in that second half. His upper-80s changeup can flash above average with sink and fade to it.
Given his age -- he’ll pitch the 2026 season at age 23 -- and athleticism on the mound, the Reds are optimistic Petty will find his way back. The execution issues may have been as much about him trying to do too much, trying to get back to the big leagues with one outing, as about anything mechanical. There’s still mid-rotation ceiling here, though his 2025 stumble has surfaced some reliever risk concerns.
When Petty was a New Jersey high school standout, he was a pure thrower who lit up radar guns over 100 mph despite being undersized. The Twins took that arm strength at No. 26 overall, but he wasn’t there for long. He was just getting going in his first Spring Training when he went to the Reds in the Sonny Gray deal. He’s earned a promotion in each of his three seasons of pro ball, even with a careful workload in 2023 following a minor elbow issue, and the gloves came off in 2024 as he topped 130 innings and finished with a pair of strong starts in Triple-A.
Petty’s evolution and maturation from thrower to complete pitcher has continued, though he’s still throwing plenty hard enough. His fastball is almost a setup pitch to his secondary offerings, but he still averaged 95-96 mph, touching the upper 90s, and his two-seamer features good sink for groundball contact. At times he has a distinct upper-80s slider and a 91-92 mph cutter, although they occasionally run into each other. They miss bats at a high rate in any iteration. He has a firm upper-80s changeup that isn’t quite as effective, but it can kill spin and offer some sink and fade.
With an athletic delivery, Petty has a strong track record of filling up the strike zone, though his walk rate did balloon in Double-A in 2024. He’s still very young for his stage of development, pitching all of 2025 at age 22, and he came to Spring Training even more physical. He’s officially in knocking on the door territory with a mid-rotation ceiling.
Petty rose up Draft boards in 2021 as a strong-armed -- albeit undersized -- high school right-hander from New Jersey, one who could hit triple digits. His premium velocity was a big reason why the Twins took him at the end of the first round in that year’s Draft. He was in his first Spring Training as a pro in 2022, when he was sent to the Reds in the Sonny Gray deal. Petty had a solid first full season, making his way from Single-A to High-A, and while he was slowed out of the gate in 2023 with a minor elbow issue, he still pitched well enough to touch Double-A.
The Reds monitored Petty’s workload very carefully post-injury, limiting his innings to make sure he made it through the year, and they were very pleased with how dominant he was while he continued his evolution from pure thrower to pitcher. While he can reach back and get 95-96 mph, he’s also shown he can pitch at 91-93 mph, pitching to contact with a two-seamer that features a ton of sink and run thanks to his lower arm slot, which helps him get a lot of ground-ball outs. His plus mid-80s slider is a go-to pitch that misses bats, and his changeup has continued to improve.
Petty’s plus athleticism plays well on the mound, helping him repeat his delivery and fill up the strike zone with all of his pitches. The gloves will come off a bit in 2024, hopefully, as Petty continues to learn routines necessary to maintain velocity and stuff deep into starts, and from outing to outing. He’ll be just 21 for the whole season, so there’s time for him to figure himself out as he hits the upper levels.
Petty was high on the Reds’ Draft board as the 2021 Draft approached, but they opted to go the college bat route with Matt McLain at No. 17 overall as Petty, the New Jersey prep standout, went nine picks later to the Twins. He appeared in just two complex league games the summer after he signed and was preparing for his first full season of pro ball when he was sent to the Reds in March for Sonny Gray. He had a very successful year with his new organization in 2022, finishing the year up a level in High-A.
Known for his triple-digits velocity in high school, Petty showed signs of being more of a complete pitcher than some anticipated, especially out of the gate. He sat around 94-95 mph while working with a pretty strict pitch count and his lower arm slot leads to sink and run and resulting groundball outs. His mid-80s slider is a plus breaking ball that can miss bats and he’s made a lot of progress on his changeup, which was a point of emphasis last year.
Petty’s athleticism -- some say he looks like a shortstop on the mound -- works to his advantage and he pitches with a ton of energy. His move up a level to Dayton in 2022 helped him learn about professional routines and preparation as well as to trust his stuff in the zone more, with more advanced hitters less likely to chase. He’s just as willing to pitch to contact -- that improved changeup will continue to come in handy -- and looks like he has the combination of stuff and command to be a solid big league starter.
Heading into the 2021 Draft, it was a little hard to figure out what to do with Petty. He’s not very big, but he’s athletic. He throws 100 mph. He’s a high schooler from the Northeast. The Twins liked the upside potential of the premium velocity enough to take him at the end of the first round and sign him for $2.5 million. He made his brief pro debut in the Florida Complex League, then was acquired by the Reds in the March 2022 Sonny Gray trade.
While Petty fits the “undersized right-hander” mold, he is an excellent athlete and has plenty of strength in his relatively compact frame. The velocity is undeniable, having touched triple digits repeatedly and sitting in the upper-90s on a regular basis, throwing the fastball from a lower slot that creates excellent sink and run. His upper-80s slider flashes plus, a big, hard sweepy breaking ball that can miss bats. The changeup is a distant third pitch, though he’s shown a little feel for it, with some concern that it doesn't yet have enough separation from his sinking fastball.
Although there are concerns about his delivery, both in terms of effort and that lower slot, Petty does a fairly decent job in finding the strike zone. If he can fine-tune his mechanics, he’s athletic enough to repeat his delivery. That, along with development of his third pitch, gives him a good chance to start.
Heading into the 2021 Draft, it was a little hard to figure out what to do with Petty. He’s not very big, but he’s athletic. He throws 100 mph. He’s a high schooler from the northeast. The Twins liked the upside potential of the premium velocity enough to take him at the end of the first round and signing him for $2.5 million. He made his brief pro debut in the Florida Complex League, but they sent him to the Reds in March in the Sonny Gray deal.
While Petty fits the “undersized right-hander” mold, he is an excellent athlete and has plenty of strength in his relatively compact frame. The velocity is undeniable, having touched triple digits repeatedly and sitting in the upper-90s on a regular basis, throwing the fastball from a lower slot that creates excellent sink and run. His upper-80s slider flashes plus, a big, hard sweepy breaking ball that can miss bats. The changeup is a distant third pitch, though he’s shown a little feel for it, with some concern over creating one with enough separation from his sinking fastball.
Though there are concerns about his delivery, both in terms of effort and that lower slot, Petty does a fairly decent job in finding the strike zone. If he can fine-tune his mechanics, he’s athletic enough to repeat his delivery. That, along with development of his third pitch, gives him a good chance to start.
When the Twins took Petty No. 26 overall in the 2021 Draft, he became the first New Jersey high school right-hander to go in the first round of the Draft since Rick Porcello was taken back in 2007, and just the fourth prep pitcher from the Garden State to go that early in that timespan (lefties Rob Kaminsky and Jay Groome went in 2013 and 2016). Attracted to his premium arm strength, the Twins signed the Gatorade state player of the year for $2.5 million. The Reds acquired him in March 2022, trading Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero to Minnesota to land him.
There are no questions about Petty’s pure stuff. He touched triple digits at the Area Code Games and sat regularly in the upper 90s across all the events he attended, throwing it with sink and run in on right-handed hitters. His upper-80s slider plays well off his fastball, running away from righties. Petty has a changeup that can be too firm at 90 mph at times, but he showed some depth with the pitch last summer. He’s fearless on the mound and isn’t afraid to pitch inside.
The only questions surrounding Petty are around his size and delivery. There is some effort with a low three-quarters slot and his command has been up and down, leading some to feel there could be reliever risk in the 6-foot righty. He has shown the ability to throw strikes consistently against good competition and he’s athletic enough to believe he can start at the next level.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2025
25.55
3
2.8
0
0
2
1
33.3
Player
25.55
3
2.8
0
0
2
1
33.3
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2025
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
3
3
3
3
Player
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
3
3
3
3
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here