Casey Kelly
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 215LBS | Age: 34
Draft: 2008 | Rd: 1, #30, Boston Red Sox | Sarasota HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2015 0 2 7.94 3 2 0 11.1 7 1.94
2016 0 3 5.82 10 1 0 21.2 7 1.71
2018 0 3 3.04 7 3 0 23.2 16 1.39
4 Seasons 2 11 5.46 26 12 0 85.2 56 1.65
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2015 3 0-2 7.94 11.1 7 1.94
2016 10 0-3 5.82 21.2 7 1.71
2018 7 0-3 3.04 23.2 16 1.39
4 Seasons 26 2-11 5.46 85.2 56 1.65
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 Sweet
Spot %		 XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 25 201 45 2 4.4 3.6 89.8 108.2 3.5 51.1 .337 .559 .396 .409 .448 44.4 12.5 5.4 7.94 7.58
2016 26 376 86 9 10.5 8.8 88.6 111.8 12.0 33.7 .320 .552 .363 .395 .407 38.4 6.9 6.9 5.82 7.09
2018 28 354 82 4 4.9 3.8 91.2 109.4 13.9 29.3 .264 .438 .338 .315 .353 37.8 15.4 4.8 3.04 4.21
Player 931 213 15 7.0 5.7 89.9 111.8 11.0 35.7 .301 .507 .360 .366 .394 39.4 11.5 5.7
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.3 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(37.4%) ,
Curveball
(24.9%) ,
Sinker
(16.1%) ,
Slider
(10.8%) ,
Changeup
(10.8%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2015 46.7 8.9 44.4 0.0 26.7 40.0 33.3 4.4 35.6 17.8 20.0 15.6 4.4 3.6
2016 45.3 16.3 30.2 8.1 25.6 43.0 31.4 3.5 34.9 20.9 22.1 5.8 10.5 8.8
2018 50.0 23.2 19.5 7.3 35.4 45.1 19.5 1.2 30.5 24.4 34.1 4.9 4.9 3.8
Player 47.4 17.4 29.1 6.1 29.6 43.2 27.2 2.8 33.3 21.6 26.3 7.5 7.0 5.7
MLB 44.6 23.5 24.8 7.0 37.0 37.5 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2018 Sinker SF R 57 91.1 22.8 -0.4 -2 12.7 -1.9 -13
2018 Slider SF R 38 86.5 34.1 -1.9 -5 2.5 -1.6 -39
2018 Changeup SF R 38 86.2 28.3 -1.9 -6 15.3 1.8 13
2018 4-Seam Fastball SF R 132 91.5 19.3 -2.3 -14 4.8 -2.4 -33
2018 Curveball SF R 87 81.6 50.4 -2.4 -5 6.7 -0.3 -4
2016 Changeup ATL R 37 86.0 30.7 0.9 3 13.6 1.6 13
2016 4-Seam Fastball ATL R 136 90.7 21.0 -3.6 -21 4.9 -2.5 -34
2016 Sinker ATL R 108 90.5 25.7 3.5 16 11.4 -2.4 -17
2016 Curveball ATL R 77 80.4 53.4 -0.2 0 8.8 1.0 13
2015 Curveball SD R 32 81.8 50.9 0.3 1 9.0 0.5 6
2015 Changeup SD R 45 86.8 31.7 2.1 7 0.1 -12.3 -99
2015 Sinker SD R 46 91.4 25.8 3.4 15 9.8 -4.1 -29
2015 4-Seam Fastball SD R 78 91.4 22.8 -6.2 -37 2.6 -4.6 -64
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2018 4-Seam Fastball 0.8 1 132 37.3 35 .250 .469 .339 20.9 14.3 18.5 .271 .495 .358 44.4
2018 Curveball 2.2 2 88 24.9 30 .214 .357 .227 22.0 20.0 20.0 .242 .327 .236 33.3
2018 Sinker -2.2 -1 57 16.1 19 .421 .474 .492 3.1 0.0 0.0 .302 .467 .331 42.1
2018 Slider 0.2 0 38 10.7 9 .143 .143 .256 45.0 33.3 21.4 .200 .238 .303 0.0
2018 Changeup -3.6 -1 38 10.7 10 .500 1.100 .665 32.0 20.0 25.0 .272 .650 .381 37.5
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2012 135 501 -8 5 -4 -2 -9
2015 56 201 -4 0 -2 -1 -7
2016 99 365 0 3 -2 -2 -2
2018 103 353 3 -1 -1 -1 0
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 201 50.7 63.7 90.8 25.3 68.0 40.8 60.7 44.8 15.6 7.0 57.1
2016 376 46.3 71.8 87.2 31.7 79.7 39.6 49.0 50.3 14.8 6.1 87.0
2018 354 53.5 71.4 81.5 30.5 58.0 41.9 59.2 52.3 22.2 9.1 84.4
Player 931 50.0 69.9 85.5 29.9 69.8 40.8 55.6 49.8 17.9 7.4 79.7
MLB 48.6 66.9 82.0 28.4 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA 		xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit% 		K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate 		FB
Velo 		FB
Spin 		CB
Spin 		Extension
2015 29 37 17
2016 17 23 23 4
2018 27 41 14 11
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2016 -- 1 4.4 -3 1 7 0 0.0
2018 22.9 3 3.3 0 3 1 2 66.7
Player 22.9 4 7.7 -4 4 8 2 50.0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2016 1 5 2 6 4 4 7 4 4 1 3 6 4 3 6 5 1 5 5 6 3 2 7 7 4 4 5 7 5 5 2
2018 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3
Player 4 9 5 9 7 7 10 8 6 4 6 11 8 6 9 8 4 8 8 9 7 5 11 11 7 7 8 11 9 8 5
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 91.4 90.6 -0.8 ↓
Offspeed Velocity 86.8 86.0 -0.8 ↓
Breaking Velocity 81.8 80.3 -1.5 ↓
Exit Velocity 89.8 88.6 -1.2 ↓
Launch Angle 3.5 12.0 8.5 ↑
Barrel % 4.4 10.5 6.1 ↑
Hard Hit % 44.4 38.4 -6.0 ↓
Sweet Spot % 51.1 33.7 -17.4 ↓
xBA .337 .320 -0.017 ↓
BA .365 .326 -0.039 ↓
xwOBA .409 .395 -0.014 ↓
wOBA .396 .363 -0.033 ↓
xSLG .559 .552 -0.007 ↓
SLG .500 .489 -0.011 ↓
K% 12.5 6.9 -5.6 ↓
BB% 5.4 6.9 1.5 ↑
Swing % 44.8 50.3 5.5 ↑
Whiff% 15.6 14.8 -0.8 ↓
In Zone % 50.7 46.3 -4.4 ↓
Out of Zone % 49.3 53.7 4.4 ↑
Out of Zone Swing % 25.3 31.7 6.4 ↑
First Pitch Swing % 14.3 29.4 15.1 ↑
First Pitch Strike % 60.7 49.0 -11.7 ↓
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2016 Shifts 97 .362 59 17 28.8 38 13 34.2
2018 Shifts 103 .338 61 8 13.1 42 12 28.6
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2012 145 13.8 66.2% 0.7% 80 22.0 0.0% 5.0%
2015 52 14.7 51.9% 0.0% 44 20.3 22.7% 18.2%
2016 78 13.9 55.1% 1.3% 73 23.2 4.1% 12.3%
2018 95 15.0 49.5% 0.0% 56 21.7 0.0% 1.8%
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Pitch Distribution

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