P | Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 3" 200 lbs | Age: 26
Draft: 2021 | Rd. 3, No. 98, Minnesota Twins | Nebraska
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 3 9 5.20 16 16 0 79.2 69 1.43
2025 3 8 5.21 22 20 0 112.1 118 1.50
2026 2 1 4.38 8 7 0 37 28 1.49
3 Seasons 8 18 5.07 46 43 0 229 215 1.47
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 16 3-9 5.20 79.2 69 1.43
2025 22 3-8 5.21 112.1 118 1.50
2026 8 2-1 4.38 37 28 1.49
3 Seasons 46 8-18 5.07 229 215 1.47
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Team Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2024 24 1389 246 22 8.9 6.3 88.4 115.1 17.8 32.5 .229 .410 .339 .316 .349 36.6 19.6 9.7 5.20 4.08
2025 25 1971 326 37 11.3 7.6 91.2 112.1 13.0 36.5 .269 .495 .349 .356 .442 46.9 24.2 8.8 5.21 5.44
2026 26 611 116 8 6.9 5.0 90.0 110.2 16.1 25.0 .254 .426 .350 .331 .361 39.7 17.5 9.4 4.38 4.69
Player 3971 688 67 9.7 6.7 90.0 115.1 15.2 33.1 .252 .454 .346 .338 .395 42.0 21.5 9.2
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.6 33.3 .244 .407 .316 .316 .368 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Povich relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(45.8%) ,
Curveball
(22.4%) ,
Slider
(13.1%) ,
Changeup
(10.1%) ,
Sinker
(8.5%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2024 35.4 64.6 32.5 22.8 9.3 41.1 34.6 24.4 19.1 12.6 3.7 22.0 22.0 20.7
2025 42.3 57.7 26.4 24.5 6.7 39.3 39.0 21.8 21.2 18.1 3.1 18.1 20.9 18.7
2026 44.0 56.0 29.3 18.1 8.6 36.2 35.3 28.4 25.0 16.4 2.6 11.2 19.0 25.9
Player 40.1 59.9 29.1 22.8 8.0 39.4 36.8 23.8 21.1 15.8 3.2 18.3 20.9 20.6
MLB 44.1 55.9 24.3 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.0 20.7 17.5 5.8 16.9 19.8 19.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2024 4.9 24.0 34.6 21.5 6.1 8.9 6.3
2025 3.4 27.6 20.9 26.1 10.4 11.3 7.6
2026 4.3 29.3 29.3 20.7 8.6 6.9 5.0
Player 4.1 26.6 27.2 23.5 8.6 9.7 6.7
MLB 4.1 32.2 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
SeasonPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Changeup L 62 85.1 31.8 -0.6 14.6ARM 0.7 6.1 -1.3 14.6ARM 0.7
2026 Slider L 80 86.6 29.5 -5.5 5.3GLV 1.6 6.7 -5.1 5.3GLV 0.8
2026 4-Seam Fastball L 280 91.8 14.4 1.5 6.7ARM -0.2 18.2 2.7 6.7ARM -1.2
2026 Sinker L 52 91.3 19.2 -4.2 14.4ARM 0.0 13.7 -6.0 14.4ARM -0.9
2026 Curveball L 137 76.4 62.7 4.3 8.7GLV -1.5 -15.3 5.2 8.7GLV 0.6
2025 Changeup L 296 83.6 35.7 2.8 10.9ARM -3.0 3.7 1.5 10.9ARM -3.3
2025 Sweeper L 203 82.7 40.5 0.5 10.4GLV -3.4 -0.3 1.3 10.4GLV -2.6
2025 Slider L 34 83.9 32.3 -5.0 2.3GLV -2.1 6.7 -4.6 2.3GLV -1.7
2025 Curveball L 430 78.9 58.9 3.9 9.8GLV 0.4 -14.5 4.8 9.8GLV 2.0
2025 Cutter L 33 91.5 17.7 6.3 1.2ARM -3.2 15.0 7.2 1.2ARM -3.1
2025 Sinker L 242 91.9 20.3 -3.3 15.7ARM 1.0 12.2 -4.7 15.7ARM 0.3
2025 4-Seam Fastball L 733 92.2 15.0 0.6 10.5ARM 3.3 17.4 1.5 10.5ARM 2.4
! Note: Seasons are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Season Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 1.8 5 280 45.8 68 .194 .323 .263 19.9 16.2 15.1 .224 .392 .301 35.3
2026 Curveball 0.4 1 137 22.4 32 .192 .231 .283 37.3 28.1 17.6 .178 .232 .277 23.5
2026 Slider -2.5 -2 80 13.1 21 .238 .667 .371 27.0 23.8 22.7 .282 .595 .368 50.0
2026 Changeup -6.2 -4 62 10.1 20 .500 .650 .505 15.6 15.0 23.1 .364 .583 .404 47.1
2026 Sinker -4.4 -2 52 8.5 19 .533 .733 .564 9.1 0.0 0.0 .328 .461 .418 53.3
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.1 1 733 37.2 175 .268 .444 .352 18.6 22.9 21.9 .283 .577 .403 52.2
2025 Curveball -1.5 -7 430 21.8 106 .309 .485 .394 29.0 24.5 16.7 .234 .407 .302 37.5
2025 Changeup -0.5 -2 296 15.0 68 .190 .333 .251 35.2 25.0 16.7 .248 .438 .316 36.2
2025 Sinker -0.4 -1 242 12.3 68 .323 .462 .346 19.8 29.4 28.2 .290 .429 .322 54.3
2025 Sweeper -4.8 -10 203 10.3 53 .375 .646 .460 21.4 15.1 12.1 .307 .600 .412 55.0
2025 Slider -0.8 0 34 1.7 8 .250 .750 .406 35.0 50.0 25.0 .229 .455 .290 25.0
2025 Cutter 0.1 0 33 1.7 8 .200 .200 .375 18.2 37.5 37.5 .212 .313 .403 50.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Season Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 55 85.2 87 16.3 10:30 9:30 60
2026 Curveball 137 76.4 92 20.7 5:00 5:15 -15
2026 4-Seam Fastball 280 91.8 91 19.0 11:00 11:15 -15
2026 Sinker 52 91.3 91 19.9 11:00 10:15 45
2026 Slider 80 86.6 40 8.2 12:45 1:30 -45
2025 Changeup 239 83.6 75 12.5 10:00 9:30 30
2025 Curveball 430 78.9 83 20.2 4:45 5:00 -15
2025 Cutter 33 91.5 74 14.4 11:15 11:45 -30
2025 4-Seam Fastball 730 92.2 95 20.0 10:45 11:00 -15
2025 Sinker 232 91.9 94 20.0 10:45 10:15 30
2025 Slider 25 83.8 38 6.4 3:30 2:15 75
2025 Sweeper 200 82.7 45 11.7 4:15 3:15 60
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Season Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2024 351 1,389 1 9 -12 -6 -8
2025 486 1,971 -1 6 -15 -9 -18
2026 160 611 -4 7 -2 -4 -2
Player 997 3,971 -3 22 -28 -3 -28
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2024 1,389 51.3 67.3 83.5 26.0 61.9 41.3 61.9 47.2 22.3 8.2 75.4
2025 1,971 50.5 62.8 83.8 26.6 56.4 40.7 60.2 44.9 24.2 8.7 70.9
2026 611 45.5 66.2 90.2 29.7 53.5 35.5 57.5 46.3 22.6 7.0 74.4
Player 3,971 50.0 64.9 84.6 26.9 57.7 40.1 60.4 45.9 23.3 8.3 72.9
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.7 28.6 57.9 42.6 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Season Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2024 18 48 9 21 43 21 60 39 62 19 23 23 25 25 68 12 39
2025 6 42 1 38 6 18 60 50 5 28 42 61 36 9 7 52 29
2026 12 84 33 33
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Season Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2024 23.53 12 11.7 0 4 6 7 58.3
2025 23.98 17 17.9 -1 4 13 9 52.9
2026 24.77 6 5.8 0 2 7 0 0.0
Player 23.96 35 35.4 0 10 26 16 45.7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Season HR
2024 12 12 11 11 11 13 13 11 9 9 12 13 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 14 12 12 15 13 10 11 11 12 12 12 11
2025 17 17 14 15 16 19 17 14 15 16 17 18 19 23 18 14 18 19 16 22 17 18 22 19 17 18 15 23 22 19 19
2026 6 7 4 6 7 8 7 5 8 7 5 5 5 7 7 6 6 5 3 8 4 6 8 6 4 5 2 8 5 6 5
Player 35 36 29 32 34 40 37 30 32 32 34 36 35 41 37 31 36 35 31 44 33 36 45 38 31 34 28 43 39 37 35
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024
Results
BA .278 -.007 ↓ .285 +.029 ↑ .256
xBA .254 -.015 ↓ .269 +.040 ↑ .229
OBP .350 +.003 ↑ .347 +.015 ↑ .332
xOBP .329 -.003 ↓ .332 +.025 ↑ .307
SLG .444 -.021 ↓ .465 +.011 ↑ .454
xSLG .426 -.069 ↓ .495 +.085 ↑ .410
ISO .167 -.013 ↓ .180 -.018 ↓ .198
xISO .172 -.054 ↓ .226 +.044 ↑ .182
BABIP .309 -.042 ↓ .351 +.060 ↑ .291
wOBA .350 +.001 ↑ .349 +.010 ↑ .339
xwOBA .331 -.025 ↓ .356 +.040 ↑ .316
wOBAcon .386 -.045 ↓ .431 +.048 ↑ .383
xwOBAcon .361 -.081 ↓ .442 +.093 ↑ .349
BACON .345 -.040 ↓ .385 +.060 ↑ .325
xBACON .315 -.052 ↓ .367 +.075 ↑ .292
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 39.7 -7.2 ↓ 46.9 +10.3 ↑ 36.6
Avg Exit Velocity 90.0 -1.2 ↓ 91.2 +2.8 ↑ 88.4
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 25.0 -11.5 ↓ 36.5 +4.0 ↑ 32.5
Barrel % 6.9 -4.4 ↓ 11.3 +2.4 ↑ 8.9
Avg Launch Angle 16.1 +3.1 ↑ 13.0 -4.8 ↓ 17.8
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.4 +0.4 ↑ 72.0 +0.6 ↑ 71.4
Attack Angle 10° -1° ↓ 11° 0° ↓ 11°
Ideal Attack Angle % 58.8 +6.3 ↑ 52.5 -2.7 ↓ 55.2
Attack Direction -1° +1° ↑ -2° 0° ↑ -2°
Swing Path - Tilt 32° 0° ↓ 32° +2° ↑ 31°
Swing Length 7.3 -0.1 ↓ 7.4 +0.1 ↑ 7.3
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 91.7 -0.4 ↓ 92.1 +0.4 ↑ 91.7
Breaking Velocity 80.2 -0.1 ↓ 80.3 +1.5 ↑ 78.8
Offspeed Velocity 85.1 +1.5 ↑ 83.6 -2.5 ↓ 86.1
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 8 -29 ↓ 37 +15 ↑ 22
Popup % 8.6 +1.9 ↑ 6.7 -2.6 ↓ 9.3
Flyball % 29.3 +2.9 ↑ 26.4 -6.1 ↓ 32.5
Line Drive % 18.1 -6.4 ↓ 24.5 +1.7 ↑ 22.8
Groundball % 44.0 +1.7 ↑ 42.3 +6.9 ↑ 35.4
Pull % 36.2 -3.1 ↓ 39.3 -1.8 ↓ 41.1
Straight Away % 35.3 -3.7 ↓ 39.0 +4.4 ↑ 34.6
Opposite Field % 28.4 +6.6 ↑ 21.8 -2.6 ↓ 24.4
Weak Contact % 4.3 +0.9 ↑ 3.4 -1.5 ↓ 4.9
Pull Airball % 11.2 -6.9 ↓ 18.1 -3.9 ↓ 22.0
Topped Contact % 29.3 +1.7 ↑ 27.6 +3.6 ↑ 24.0
Under Contact % 29.3 +8.4 ↑ 20.9 -13.7 ↓ 34.6
Flare/Burner Contact % 20.7 -5.4 ↓ 26.1 +4.6 ↑ 21.5
Solid Contact % 8.6 -1.8 ↓ 10.4 +4.3 ↑ 6.1
HR/FB % 17.6 -2.2 ↓ 19.8 +4.8 ↑ 15.0
Popups 10 -12 ↓ 22 -1 ↓ 23
Flyballs 34 -52 ↓ 86 +6 ↑ 80
Line Drives 21 -59 ↓ 80 +24 ↑ 56
Groundballs 51 -87 ↓ 138 +51 ↑ 87
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 45.5 -5.0 ↓ 50.5 -0.8 ↓ 51.3
Out of Zone % 54.5 +5.0 ↑ 49.5 +0.8 ↑ 48.7
Edge % 35.5 -5.2 ↓ 40.7 -0.6 ↓ 41.3
Zone Swing % 66.2 +3.4 ↑ 62.8 -4.5 ↓ 67.3
Out of Zone Swing % 29.7 +3.1 ↑ 26.6 +0.6 ↑ 26.0
In Zone Contact % 90.2 +6.4 ↑ 83.8 +0.3 ↑ 83.5
Out of Zone Contact % 53.5 -2.9 ↓ 56.4 -5.5 ↓ 61.9
Whiff % 22.6 -1.6 ↓ 24.2 +1.9 ↑ 22.3
First Strike % 57.5 -2.7 ↓ 60.2 -1.7 ↓ 61.9
First Pitch Swing % 31.3 +4.7 ↑ 26.6 -2.1 ↓ 28.7
Swing % 46.3 +1.4 ↑ 44.9 -2.3 ↓ 47.2
Meatball Swing % 74.4 +3.5 ↑ 70.9 -4.5 ↓ 75.4
Meatball % 7.0 -1.7 ↓ 8.7 +0.5 ↑ 8.2
Zone Swing & Miss % 9.8 -6.4 ↓ 16.2 -0.3 ↓ 16.5
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 46.5 +2.9 ↑ 43.6 +5.5 ↑ 38.1
In Zone 278 -718 ↓ 996 +283 ↑ 713
Out of Zone 333 -642 ↓ 975 +299 ↑ 676
Edge 217 -586 ↓ 803 +230 ↑ 573
In Zone Swings 184 -441 ↓ 625 +145 ↑ 480
Out of Zone Swings 99 -160 ↓ 259 +83 ↑ 176
In Zone Swing & Misses 18 -83 ↓ 101 +22 ↑ 79
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 46 -67 ↓ 113 +46 ↑ 67
Basic
Pitches 611 -1,360 ↓ 1,971 +582 ↑ 1,389
PA 160 -328 ↓ 488 +136 ↑ 352
AB 144 -295 ↓ 439 +126 ↑ 313
Hits 40 -85 ↓ 125 +45 ↑ 80
Singles 28 -56 ↓ 84 +40 ↑ 44
Doubles 6 -14 ↓ 20 -2 ↓ 22
Triples 0 -4 ↓ 4 +2 ↑ 2
Home Runs 6 -11 ↓ 17 +5 ↑ 12
Walks 15 -28 ↓ 43 +9 ↑ 34
Strikeouts 28 -90 ↓ 118 +49 ↑ 69
K% 17.5 -6.7 ↓ 24.2 +4.6 ↑ 19.6
BB% 9.4 +0.6 ↑ 8.8 -0.9 ↓ 9.7
HBP 1 0 1 -2 ↓ 3
Batted Balls 116 -210 ↓ 326 +80 ↑ 246
Fastball Percent 54.3 +3.2 ↑ 51.1 -5.5 ↓ 56.6
Offspeed Percent 10.1 -4.9 ↓ 15.0 +4.1 ↑ 10.9
Breaking Percent 35.5 +1.7 ↑ 33.8 +1.3 ↑ 32.5
Number of Fastballs 332 -676 ↓ 1,008 +222 ↑ 786
Number of Offspeed 62 -234 ↓ 296 +145 ↑ 151
Number of Breaking 217 -450 ↓ 667 +215 ↑ 452
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
SeasonAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2024 Shades 351 .339 254 17 6.7 97 46 47.4
2025 Shades 486 .349 370 12 3.2 116 27 23.3
2026 Shades 160 .350 102 8 7.8 58 22 37.9
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2024 415 15.8 36.1% 0.2% 192 18.1 4.7% 0.0%
2025 595 15.7 37.0% 0.2% 277 18.0 5.8% 0.0%
2026 183 16.2 29.5% 1.1% 86 18.7 8.1% 1.2%

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Pitch Distribution