P | Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 3" 200 lbs | Age: 26
Draft: 2021 | Rd. 3, No. 98, Minnesota Twins | Nebraska
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 3 9 5.20 16 16 0 79.2 69 1.43
2025 3 8 5.21 22 20 0 112.1 118 1.50
2026 2 1 4.05 7 6 0 33.1 25 1.44
3 Seasons 8 18 5.03 45 42 0 225.1 212 1.46
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 16 3-9 5.20 79.2 69 1.43
2025 22 3-8 5.21 112.1 118 1.50
2026 7 2-1 4.05 33.1 25 1.44
3 Seasons 45 8-18 5.03 225.1 212 1.46
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2024 24 1389 246 22 8.9 6.3 88.4 115.1 17.8 32.5 .229 .410 .339 .316 .349 36.6 19.6 9.7 5.20 4.08
2025 25 1971 326 37 11.3 7.6 91.2 112.1 13.0 36.5 .269 .495 .349 .356 .443 46.9 24.2 8.8 5.21 5.44
2026 26 540 103 7 6.8 4.9 90.2 110.2 15.4 25.2 .257 .424 .345 .331 .362 41.7 17.6 9.2 4.05 4.66
Player 3900 675 66 9.8 6.7 90.0 115.1 15.1 33.3 .253 .455 .345 .338 .396 42.4 21.6 9.2
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .244 .407 .316 .316 .368 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Povich relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(45.0%) ,
Curveball
(23.0%) ,
Slider
(13.3%) ,
Changeup
(10.2%) ,
Sinker
(8.5%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2024 35.4 64.6 32.5 22.8 9.3 41.1 34.6 24.4 19.1 12.6 3.7 22.0 22.0 20.7
2025 42.3 57.7 26.4 24.5 6.7 39.3 39.0 21.8 21.2 18.1 3.1 18.1 20.9 18.7
2026 44.7 55.3 30.1 18.4 6.8 37.9 34.0 28.2 26.2 16.5 1.9 11.7 17.5 26.2
Player 40.1 59.9 29.2 23.0 7.7 39.7 36.6 23.7 21.2 15.9 3.1 18.5 20.7 20.6
MLB 44.1 55.9 24.2 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.5 5.8 16.8 19.8 19.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2024 4.9 24.0 34.6 21.5 6.1 8.9 6.3
2025 3.4 27.6 20.9 26.1 10.4 11.3 7.6
2026 3.9 30.1 28.2 21.4 8.7 6.8 4.9
Player 4.0 26.7 27.0 23.7 8.6 9.8 6.7
MLB 4.0 32.2 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Changeup BAL L 55 85.0 31.8 -0.5 14.3ARM 0.4 6.1 -1.3 14.3ARM 0.4
2026 Slider BAL L 72 86.4 29.8 -5.5 5.3GLV 1.5 6.6 -5.0 5.3GLV 0.8
2026 4-Seam Fastball BAL L 243 91.8 14.2 1.6 6.8ARM 0.0 18.3 2.7 6.8ARM -1.2
2026 Sinker BAL L 46 91.2 19.0 -4.3 14.4ARM 0.1 13.9 -6.3 14.4ARM -0.9
2026 Curveball BAL L 124 76.3 62.9 4.4 8.6GLV -1.6 -15.3 5.2 8.6GLV 0.5
2025 Changeup BAL L 296 83.6 35.7 2.8 10.9ARM -3.0 3.7 1.5 10.9ARM -3.3
2025 Sweeper BAL L 203 82.7 40.5 0.5 10.4GLV -3.4 -0.3 1.3 10.4GLV -2.6
2025 Slider BAL L 34 83.9 32.3 -5.0 2.3GLV -2.1 6.7 -4.6 2.3GLV -1.7
2025 Curveball BAL L 430 78.9 58.9 3.9 9.8GLV 0.4 -14.5 4.8 9.8GLV 2.0
2025 Cutter BAL L 33 91.5 17.7 6.3 1.2ARM -3.2 15.0 7.2 1.2ARM -3.1
2025 Sinker BAL L 242 91.9 20.3 -3.3 15.7ARM 1.0 12.2 -4.7 15.7ARM 0.3
2025 4-Seam Fastball BAL L 733 92.2 15.0 0.6 10.5ARM 3.3 17.4 1.5 10.5ARM 2.4
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 1.3 3 243 45.0 61 .218 .364 .293 19.7 14.8 13.8 .250 .438 .333 39.1
2026 Curveball 1.2 1 124 23.0 29 .160 .200 .233 38.8 31.0 18.8 .160 .212 .237 18.8
2026 Slider -3.4 -2 72 13.3 17 .235 .765 .406 30.0 23.5 23.5 .303 .669 .408 53.8
2026 Changeup -2.3 -1 55 10.2 17 .412 .412 .371 17.2 17.6 23.1 .306 .389 .300 50.0
2026 Sinker -5.5 -3 46 8.5 18 .571 .786 .597 9.5 0.0 0.0 .351 .493 .441 57.1
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.1 1 733 37.2 175 .268 .444 .352 18.6 22.9 21.9 .283 .578 .403 52.2
2025 Curveball -1.5 -7 430 21.8 106 .309 .485 .394 29.0 24.5 16.7 .234 .407 .302 37.5
2025 Changeup -0.5 -2 296 15.0 68 .190 .333 .251 35.2 25.0 16.7 .248 .438 .316 36.2
2025 Sinker -0.4 -1 242 12.3 68 .323 .462 .346 19.8 29.4 28.2 .290 .430 .322 54.3
2025 Sweeper -4.8 -10 203 10.3 53 .375 .646 .460 21.4 15.1 12.1 .307 .600 .412 55.0
2025 Slider -0.8 0 34 1.7 8 .250 .750 .406 35.0 50.0 25.0 .229 .455 .290 25.0
2025 Cutter 0.1 0 33 1.7 8 .200 .200 .375 18.2 37.5 37.5 .212 .313 .403 50.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 48 85.1 87 16.0 10:30 9:45 45
2026 Curveball 124 76.3 92 20.6 5:00 5:15 -15
2026 4-Seam Fastball 243 91.8 91 19.1 11:00 11:15 -15
2026 Sinker 46 91.2 91 20.0 11:00 10:15 45
2026 Slider 72 86.4 39 8.1 12:45 1:30 -45
2025 Changeup 239 83.6 75 12.5 10:00 9:30 30
2025 Curveball 430 78.9 83 20.2 4:45 5:00 -15
2025 Cutter 33 91.5 74 14.4 11:15 11:45 -30
2025 4-Seam Fastball 730 92.2 95 20.0 10:45 11:00 -15
2025 Sinker 232 91.9 94 20.0 10:45 10:15 30
2025 Slider 25 83.8 38 6.4 3:30 2:15 75
2025 Sweeper 200 82.7 45 11.7 4:15 3:15 60
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2024 351 1,389 1 9 -12 -6 -8
2025 486 1,971 -1 6 -15 -9 -18
2026 142 540 -4 7 -2 -3 -2
Player 979 3,900 -3 22 -28 -3 -27
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2024 1,389 51.3 67.3 83.5 26.0 61.9 41.3 61.9 47.2 22.3 8.2 75.4
2025 1,971 50.5 62.8 83.8 26.6 56.4 40.7 60.2 44.9 24.2 8.7 70.9
2026 540 46.1 65.9 89.0 29.9 52.9 35.4 57.7 46.5 23.5 7.0 73.7
Player 3,900 50.2 64.8 84.4 26.9 57.7 40.2 60.5 45.9 23.4 8.3 72.8
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.7 28.6 57.9 42.6 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2024 18 48 9 21 43 21 60 39 62 19 23 23 25 25 68 12 39
2025 6 42 1 38 6 18 60 50 5 28 42 61 36 9 7 52 29
2026 13 86 31 34
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2024 23.53 12 11.7 0 4 6 7 58.3
2025 23.98 17 17.9 -1 4 13 9 52.9
2026 24.22 5 5.0 0 2 5 1 20.0
Player 23.85 34 34.6 -1 10 24 17 50.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2024 12 12 11 11 11 13 13 11 9 9 12 13 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 14 12 12 15 13 10 11 11 12 12 12 11
2025 17 17 14 15 16 19 17 14 15 16 17 18 19 23 18 14 18 19 16 22 17 18 22 19 17 18 15 23 22 19 19
2026 5 6 4 6 6 7 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 6 6 5 5 4 3 7 3 5 7 5 3 4 2 7 4 5 4
Player 34 35 29 32 33 39 36 30 31 31 33 36 34 40 36 30 35 34 31 43 32 35 44 37 30 33 28 42 38 36 34
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024
Results
BA .273 -.012 .285 +.029 .256
xBA .257 -.012 .269 +.040 .229
OBP .345 -.002 .347 +.015 .332
xOBP .331 -.001 .332 +.025 .307
SLG .438 -.027 .465 +.011 .454
xSLG .424 -.071 .495 +.085 .410
ISO .164 -.016 .180 -.018 .198
xISO .167 -.059 .226 +.044 .182
BABIP .306 -.045 .351 +.060 .291
wOBA .345 -.004 .349 +.010 .339
xwOBA .331 -.025 .356 +.040 .316
wOBAcon .381 -.050 .431 +.048 .383
xwOBAcon .362 -.081 .443 +.094 .349
BACON .340 -.045 .385 +.060 .325
xBACON .320 -.047 .367 +.075 .292
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 41.7 -5.2 46.9 +10.3 36.6
Avg Exit Velocity 90.2 -1.0 91.2 +2.8 88.4
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 25.2 -11.3 36.5 +4.0 32.5
Barrel % 6.8 -4.5 11.3 +2.4 8.9
Avg Launch Angle 15.4 +2.4 13.0 -4.8 17.8
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.2 +0.2 72.0 +0.6 71.4
Attack Angle 10° -1° 11° 11°
Ideal Attack Angle % 57.2 +4.7 52.5 -2.7 55.2
Attack Direction -1° +1° -2° -2°
Swing Path - Tilt 32° 32° +2° 31°
Swing Length 7.3 -0.1 7.4 +0.1 7.3
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 91.7 -0.4 92.1 +0.4 91.7
Breaking Velocity 80.0 -0.3 80.3 +1.5 78.8
Offspeed Velocity 85.0 +1.4 83.6 -2.5 86.1
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 7 -30 37 +15 22
Popup % 6.8 +0.1 6.7 -2.6 9.3
Flyball % 30.1 +3.7 26.4 -6.1 32.5
Line Drive % 18.4 -6.1 24.5 +1.7 22.8
Groundball % 44.7 +2.4 42.3 +6.9 35.4
Pull % 37.9 -1.4 39.3 -1.8 41.1
Straight Away % 34.0 -5.0 39.0 +4.4 34.6
Opposite Field % 28.2 +6.4 21.8 -2.6 24.4
Weak Contact % 3.9 +0.5 3.4 -1.5 4.9
Pull Airball % 11.7 -6.4 18.1 -3.9 22.0
Topped Contact % 30.1 +2.5 27.6 +3.6 24.0
Under Contact % 28.2 +7.3 20.9 -13.7 34.6
Flare/Burner Contact % 21.4 -4.7 26.1 +4.6 21.5
Solid Contact % 8.7 -1.7 10.4 +4.3 6.1
HR/FB % 16.1 -3.7 19.8 +4.8 15.0
Popups 7 -15 22 -1 23
Flyballs 31 -55 86 +6 80
Line Drives 19 -61 80 +24 56
Groundballs 46 -92 138 +51 87
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 46.1 -4.4 50.5 -0.8 51.3
Out of Zone % 53.9 +4.4 49.5 +0.8 48.7
Edge % 35.4 -5.3 40.7 -0.6 41.3
Zone Swing % 65.9 +3.1 62.8 -4.5 67.3
Out of Zone Swing % 29.9 +3.3 26.6 +0.6 26.0
In Zone Contact % 89.0 +5.2 83.8 +0.3 83.5
Out of Zone Contact % 52.9 -3.5 56.4 -5.5 61.9
Whiff % 23.5 -0.7 24.2 +1.9 22.3
First Strike % 57.7 -2.5 60.2 -1.7 61.9
First Pitch Swing % 32.4 +5.8 26.6 -2.1 28.7
Swing % 46.5 +1.6 44.9 -2.3 47.2
Meatball Swing % 73.7 +2.8 70.9 -4.5 75.4
Meatball % 7.0 -1.7 8.7 +0.5 8.2
Zone Swing & Miss % 11.0 -5.2 16.2 -0.3 16.5
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 47.1 +3.5 43.6 +5.5 38.1
In Zone 249 -747 996 +283 713
Out of Zone 291 -684 975 +299 676
Edge 191 -612 803 +230 573
In Zone Swings 164 -461 625 +145 480
Out of Zone Swings 87 -172 259 +83 176
In Zone Swing & Misses 18 -83 101 +22 79
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 41 -72 113 +46 67
Basic
Pitches 540 -1,431 1,971 +582 1,389
PA 142 -346 488 +136 352
AB 128 -311 439 +126 313
Hits 35 -90 125 +45 80
Singles 24 -60 84 +40 44
Doubles 6 -14 20 -2 22
Triples 0 -4 4 +2 2
Home Runs 5 -12 17 +5 12
Walks 13 -30 43 +9 34
Strikeouts 25 -93 118 +49 69
K% 17.6 -6.6 24.2 +4.6 19.6
BB% 9.2 +0.4 8.8 -0.9 9.7
HBP 1 0 1 -2 3
Batted Balls 103 -223 326 +80 246
Fastball Percent 53.5 +2.4 51.1 -5.5 56.6
Offspeed Percent 10.2 -4.8 15.0 +4.1 10.9
Breaking Percent 36.3 +2.5 33.8 +1.3 32.5
Number of Fastballs 289 -719 1,008 +222 786
Number of Offspeed 55 -241 296 +145 151
Number of Breaking 196 -471 667 +215 452
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2024 Shades 351 .339 254 17 6.7 97 46 47.4
2025 Shades 486 .349 370 12 3.2 116 27 23.3
2026 Shades 142 .345 90 8 8.9 52 22 42.3
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2024 415 15.8 36.1% 0.2% 192 18.1 4.7% 0.0%
2025 595 15.7 37.0% 0.2% 277 18.0 5.8% 0.0%
2026 145 16.3 27.6% 1.4% 60 18.1 11.7% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution