P | Washington Nationals
Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 3" 215 lbs | Age: 27
Draft: 2021 | Rd. 12, No. 353, Washington Nationals | Cal Poly
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2025 1 1 2.31 5 5 0 23.1 20 1.11
2026 2 1 3.05 11 5 1 41.1 48 1.38
2 Seasons 3 2 2.78 16 10 1 64.2 68 1.28
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2025 5 1-1 2.31 23.1 20 1.11
2026 11 2-1 3.05 41.1 48 1.38
2 Seasons 16 3-2 2.78 64.2 68 1.28
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2025 26 417 67 2 3.0 2.0 88.2 113.0 7.7 25.4 .209 .280 .241 .265 .274 37.3 20.4 10.2 2.31 2.87
2026 27 718 109 6 5.5 3.4 90.3 116.5 6.5 32.1 .258 .371 .321 .313 .391 45.0 27.6 9.2 3.05 4.06
Player 1135 176 8 4.5 2.9 89.5 116.5 6.9 29.5 .241 .339 .293 .296 .346 42.0 25.0 9.6
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .408 .316 .316 .369 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Alvarez relies on 5 pitches.
Curveball
(28.4%) ,
Four Seamer
(28.0%) ,
Slider
(26.3%) ,
Sinker
(14.2%) ,
Changeup
(3.1%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2025 58.2 41.8 17.9 16.4 7.5 55.2 25.4 19.4 37.3 19.4 1.5 17.9 6.0 17.9
2026 55.0 45.0 11.0 28.4 5.5 51.4 32.1 16.5 30.3 20.2 4.6 21.1 11.9 11.9
Player 56.3 43.8 13.6 23.9 6.3 52.8 29.5 17.6 33.0 19.9 3.4 19.9 9.7 14.2
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.2 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.8 16.8 19.7 19.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2025 7.5 34.3 25.4 25.4 4.5 3.0 2.0
2026 3.7 45.9 11.9 24.8 7.3 5.5 3.4
Player 5.1 41.5 17.0 25.0 6.3 4.5 2.9
MLB 4.0 32.3 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Curveball WSH L 204 82.9 53.5 3.0 11.1GLV 4.2 -13.3 3.2 11.1GLV 2.9
2026 Changeup WSH L 22 85.9 32.2 1.1 15.0ARM 1.1 4.8 -0.2 15.0ARM 1.1
2026 4-Seam Fastball WSH L 201 92.5 18.2 -3.6 2.6ARM -3.9 13.6 -2.1 2.6ARM -5.4
2026 Slider WSH L 189 83.9 41.5 3.5 2.1GLV -1.7 -2.9 4.3 2.1GLV -2.3
2026 Sinker WSH L 102 91.9 25.6 3.4 12.8ARM -1.5 6.8 0.7 12.8ARM -2.7
2025 Curveball WSH L 113 82.4 51.3 0.2 10.8GLV 4.0 -10.7 1.0 10.8GLV 3.0
2025 Sinker WSH L 19 90.9 27.7 4.2 13.1ARM -1.3 5.6 1.9 13.1ARM -2.3
2025 Changeup WSH L 22 85.2 33.2 1.0 15.2ARM 1.2 4.5 0.7 15.2ARM 1.0
2025 Slider WSH L 121 82.4 43.6 4.7 2.6GLV -1.6 -3.3 5.4 2.6GLV -1.4
2025 4-Seam Fastball WSH L 142 91.3 19.1 -3.6 3.4ARM -3.1 13.6 -2.3 3.4ARM -4.7
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 Curveball 1.1 2 204 28.4 59 .179 .250 .212 35.1 50.8 26.8 .172 .214 .195 61.5
2026 4-Seam Fastball -0.4 -1 201 28.0 48 .302 .465 .369 15.1 14.6 14.9 .307 .470 .370 36.1
2026 Slider -1.1 -2 189 26.3 43 .306 .556 .419 37.5 25.6 21.2 .253 .421 .355 36.0
2026 Sinker 0.5 0 102 14.2 21 .368 .368 .385 19.4 0.0 0.0 .433 .551 .453 57.9
2026 Changeup 2.0 0 22 3.1 3 .000 .000 .000 42.9 0.0 0.0 .188 .212 .171 0.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.4 1 142 34.1 31 .200 .360 .327 20.9 22.6 25.9 .242 .369 .346 44.4
2025 Slider 3.8 5 121 29.0 23 .091 .091 .148 34.6 17.4 40.0 .168 .229 .195 38.9
2025 Curveball -0.4 0 113 27.1 34 .226 .258 .278 13.0 23.5 12.3 .188 .231 .247 34.8
2025 Changeup -1.0 0 22 5.3 5 .200 .200 .360 25.0 0.0 0.0 .309 .343 .286 40.0
2025 Sinker 1.9 0 19 4.6 5 .250 .250 .320 0.0 20.0 50.0 .271 .297 .343 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 21 85.9 86 16.2 10:30 9:30 60
2026 Curveball 204 82.9 69 19.8 5:15 4:45 30
2026 4-Seam Fastball 201 92.5 74 13.2 11:00 11:30 -30
2026 Sinker 100 91.9 66 14.9 10:45 9:45 60
2026 Slider 189 83.9 27 5.6 5:00 5:00 0
2025 Changeup 20 85.2 82 16.5 10:30 9:15 75
2025 Curveball 112 82.4 61 17.6 5:15 4:45 30
2025 4-Seam Fastball 142 91.3 71 13.4 11:00 11:30 -30
2025 Sinker 18 91.0 63 14.4 10:45 9:45 60
2025 Slider 119 82.4 33 6.2 4:45 5:00 -15
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2025 98 417 9 1 -4 -1 5
2026 174 718 3 2 -2 -2 0
Player 272 1,135 11 3 -5 11 5
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2025 417 50.1 55.5 87.9 22.1 52.2 45.1 42.9 38.8 22.2 7.0 79.3
2026 718 44.8 62.1 87.0 31.8 46.8 36.2 50.6 45.4 28.5 6.8 67.3
Player 1,135 46.8 59.5 87.3 28.5 48.3 39.5 47.8 43.0 26.4 6.9 71.8
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.5 57.9 42.7 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2025 11 62 71 57
2026 44 40 48 62 48 18 55 71 19 65 74 82 39 79 12 93 37
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2025 21.81 1 0.2 1 2 0 0 0.0
2026 28.71 2 1.2 1 4 0 1 50.0
Player 26.41 3 1.4 2 6 0 1 33.3
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2025 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2026 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
Player 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025
Results
BA .261 +.077 .184
xBA .258 +.049 .209
OBP .333 +.057 .276
xOBP .331 +.033 .298
SLG .389 +.148 .241
xSLG .371 +.091 .280
ISO .127 +.070 .057
xISO .113 +.042 .071
BABIP .364 +.137 .227
wOBA .321 +.080 .241
xwOBA .313 +.048 .265
wOBAcon .404 +.165 .239
xwOBAcon .391 +.117 .274
BACON .376 +.137 .239
xBACON .373 +.101 .272
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 45.0 +7.7 37.3
Avg Exit Velocity 90.3 +2.1 88.2
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 32.1 +6.7 25.4
Barrel % 5.5 +2.5 3.0
Avg Launch Angle 6.5 -1.2 7.7
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.4 -0.1 72.5
Attack Angle 11° +1° 10°
Ideal Attack Angle % 50.5 -2.3 52.8
Attack Direction -5° -4° -1°
Swing Path - Tilt 33° +1° 31°
Swing Length 7.5 +0.1 7.4
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 92.3 +1.1 91.2
Breaking Velocity 83.4 +1.0 82.4
Offspeed Velocity 85.9 +0.7 85.2
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 6 +4 2
Popup % 5.5 -2.0 7.5
Flyball % 11.0 -6.9 17.9
Line Drive % 28.4 +12.0 16.4
Groundball % 55.0 -3.2 58.2
Pull % 51.4 -3.8 55.2
Straight Away % 32.1 +6.7 25.4
Opposite Field % 16.5 -2.9 19.4
Weak Contact % 3.7 -3.8 7.5
Pull Airball % 21.1 +3.2 17.9
Topped Contact % 45.9 +11.6 34.3
Under Contact % 11.9 -13.5 25.4
Flare/Burner Contact % 24.8 -0.6 25.4
Solid Contact % 7.3 +2.8 4.5
HR/FB % 16.7 +8.4 8.3
Popups 6 +1 5
Flyballs 12 0 12
Line Drives 31 +20 11
Groundballs 60 +21 39
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 44.8 -5.3 50.1
Out of Zone % 55.2 +5.3 49.9
Edge % 36.2 -8.9 45.1
Zone Swing % 62.1 +6.6 55.5
Out of Zone Swing % 31.8 +9.7 22.1
In Zone Contact % 87.0 -0.9 87.9
Out of Zone Contact % 46.8 -5.4 52.2
Whiff % 28.5 +6.3 22.2
First Strike % 50.6 +7.7 42.9
First Pitch Swing % 24.7 +7.4 17.3
Swing % 45.4 +6.6 38.8
Meatball Swing % 67.3 -12.0 79.3
Meatball % 6.8 -0.2 7.0
Zone Swing & Miss % 13.0 +0.9 12.1
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 53.2 +5.4 47.8
In Zone 322 +113 209
Out of Zone 396 +188 208
Edge 260 +72 188
In Zone Swings 200 +84 116
Out of Zone Swings 126 +80 46
In Zone Swing & Misses 26 +12 14
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 67 +45 22
Basic
Pitches 718 +301 417
PA 174 +76 98
AB 157 +70 87
Hits 41 +25 16
Singles 27 +14 13
Doubles 10 +8 2
Triples 2 +2 0
Home Runs 2 +1 1
Walks 16 +6 10
Strikeouts 48 +28 20
K% 27.6 +7.2 20.4
BB% 9.2 -1.0 10.2
HBP 1 0 1
Batted Balls 109 +42 67
Fastball Percent 42.2 +3.6 38.6
Offspeed Percent 3.1 -2.2 5.3
Breaking Percent 54.7 -1.4 56.1
Number of Fastballs 303 +142 161
Number of Offspeed 22 0 22
Number of Breaking 393 +159 234
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2025 Shades 98 .241 83 0 0.0 15 9 60.0
2026 Shades 174 .321 124 3 2.4 50 31 62.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2025 137 14.1 64.2% 0.0% 72 17.7 12.5% 1.4%
2026 177 15.0 49.7% 2.8% 107 18.7 4.7% 7.5%

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Pitch Distribution