The main attraction at Stanford for scouts this spring has undoubtedly been outfielder Brock Jones, who has the chance to go on Day 1 of the Draft. If they were lucky, they also got to evaluate Mathews, a left-hander who has been very effective as a swingman/multi-inning reliever after showing off his stuff during a four-start stint in the Cape Cod League last summer.
Tall and lanky, Mathews brings a four-pitch mix that plays up with funk and deception. He’ll throw his fastball anywhere in the 89- to 94-mph range, typically sitting around 91. His changeup is his best secondary offering, featuring two-plane fade while missing a lot of bats and getting ground-ball outs. His 80- to 83-mph slider has tight darting movement and he’ll fold in a slower 73- to 75-mph curve with three-quarter shape to it.
While Mathews has a very healthy strikeout rate, he’s also struggled at times to find the strike zone, carrying a walk rate of around four per nine innings during his college career. A team taking him could send him out as a starter and seeing if he can refine his command, knowing that he understands how to get outs out of the bullpen. Whatever his role, he has a good chance of being just the third Stanford lefty to go in the top 10 rounds in the past five Drafts.
After spending the shortened 2020 season and full 2021 campaign largely pitching out of Stanford’s rotation, Mathews threw well in a four-start stint in the Cape Cod League in 2021. He followed that up by pitching well as a swingman/multi-inning reliever last year, landing on MLB Pipeline’s Draft Top 250 list. The Rays took him close to the end of the Draft, and Matthews returned to campus for his senior year, where he’s been effective as the Cardinals' Friday night starter.
The 6-foot-5 left-hander brings four pitches and plenty of funk and deception to the mound. He can dial his fastball up to 94 mph, and it averages just over 91 mph, but his best pitch is his low 80s changeup, which features a ton of fade to both miss bats and get ground-ball outs. He throws his tight slider around the same velocity, and he also has a slower low-70s curve with three-quarter shape to it.
The long and lanky southpaw has done a better job of finding the strike zone compared to last year while continuing to post high strikeout rates and certainly raised his profile with a string of strong postseason starts. His ceiling might be somewhat limited to a back-end starter, with teams considering him knowing that he knows how to get outs coming out of the bullpen.
Mathews stayed for his senior year at Stanford after not signing with the Rays as a 19th-rounder in 2022 and threw a 156-pitch classic against Texas in the Super Regionals the following year. The former Cardinal remained a Cardinal when St. Louis took him in the fourth round, and his status ascended again in his first full season when he was named MLB Pipeline’s Pitching Prospect of the Year after striking out 202 in 143 1/3 innings across all four full-season levels. He battled shoulder issues early on in ’25 and never quite found his footing back in Triple-A Memphis, finishing with a 3.93 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 107 strikeouts and 74 walks in 94 frames.
The 6-foot-5 southpaw’s breakout in ’24 was fueled in part by a velocity bump to the 93-96 mph range, but he lost some of that last season with a fastball closer to 92-94. That made the four-seamer lose some of its effectiveness, although he throws from a low release that helps generate some ride, and he added a sinker for a more armside look. His tight mid-80s slider is a decent weapon against lefties, and he’ll work it down and in against righties too. His 80-83 mph changeup gets the most empty swings, running away from opposite-side bats with tremendous velo separation, and he’ll flip in an occasional mid-70s curveball.
Mathews battled his mechanics for much of 2025, and his control and command suffered. He’s made adding and maintaining strength a key focus for his third full season, hoping more dedication in the weight room will help him find his location with more consistency. If he can also rediscover some of that velo, he could still be a possible No. 4 starter, a projection somewhere between his previous highs and recent lows.
Mathews didn’t sign with the Rays as a 19th-round pick in 2022 and decided to head back to Stanford for his senior year, when he reached legendary status for his 156-pitch performance against Texas in the Super Regionals. He might be known for a bigger number these days: 202. That was the 2023 fourth-rounder’s Minor League-leading strikeout total across all four full-season levels in his first pro season, thus becoming only the second MiLB pitcher with at least 200 K’s in a single year since 2011. He finished with a 2.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .179 average-against, thus cementing his status as MLB Pipeline’s Pitching Prospect of the Year.
The most noticeable change from Mathews’ time in college to the pro side was his added velocity. The 6-foot-5 southpaw’s four-seamer went from averaging 91.6 mph in his final year with Stanford to sitting in the 93-96 mph range in 2024. Whether it because of early shoulder trouble or the full-time move to the Major League ball, Mathews has seen that velo drop back again to the 92-94 range in 2025. His 80-83 mph changeup still well off that heater in terms of separation and 11-13 inches of armside movement, and even during the 2025 struggles, it remains at at least a plus pitch. A tight 84-87 mph slider gets ample whiffs against lefties too, while Mathews will flip in the occasional mid-70s curveball for a different breaking look.
Some believed Mathews to have some of the best pitchability among prospects entering 2025, but his control has regressed in a major way this summer -- a trend that technically began during his first Triple-A stint in '24. Mathews still flashes midrotation upside, and optimistic evaluators believe he's still finding himself after being sidelined so early in the year. What's clear is that getting Mathews to Major League readiness is going to be more of a process than it appeared coming off his breakout first full season.
Mathews made plenty of headlines last spring when he threw 156 pitches for Stanford in a Super Regionals matchup against Texas, but it was an interesting road to get to that point. The southpaw was used mostly as a swingman for the Cardinal as a junior in 2022, posting a 3.08 ERA in 99 1/3 innings, and landed on MLB Pipeline’s Top 250 list. The Rays selected him in the 19th round, but he chose to head back to school. He became Stanford’s Friday night workhorse with 124 2/3 innings and ranked second in the county with 158 strikeouts, trailing only Paul Skenes (209). The Cardinals selected Mathews in the fourth round and signed him for $600,000.
Standing in at a skinny 6-foot-5, Mathews averaged only 91.6 mph with his fastball in his final season on campus but saw that velocity average jump to 94.8, touching as high as 97.3, during his early season spin through the Florida State League. That’s enough heat to make his four-seamer a true weapon at all levels. His best weapon is a 79-81 mph changeup with 12-13 inches of horizontal break; it’s a real brake-screecher that keeps right-handers honest. His tight mid-80s slider can also get whiffs, and a mid-70s, two-plane curveball has been a better option on the pro side too.
Mathews’ control improved as a senior and helped him to work so deeply into games. (He notably walked only one and struck out 16 in that epic against the Longhorns.) His college usage sprung a million debates, and he won’t have any 150-pitch outings in the pros. Plugged into St. Louis’ pitching development system, Mathews has already climbed three levels to Double-A, thanks to his velo gains, and he’s on his way to being more than just a backend rotation option.
After spending the shortened 2020 season and full 2021 campaign largely pitching out of Stanford’s rotation, Mathews threw well in a four-start stint in the Cape Cod League in 2021. He followed that up by pitching well as a swingman/multi-inning reliever last year, landing on MLB Pipeline’s Draft Top 250 list. The Rays took him close to the end of the Draft, and Matthews returned to campus for his senior year, where he was effective as the Cardinal's Friday night starter and notably threw 156 pitches in a Super Regionals matchup against Texas. The Cardinals selected the left-hander in the fourth round and signed him for a little over slot at $600,000.
The 6-foot-5 hurler brings four pitches and plenty of funk and deception to the mound. He can dial his fastball up to 94 mph, and it averages just over 91 mph, but his best pitch is his low-80s changeup, which features a ton of fade to both miss bats and get ground-ball outs. He throws his tight slider around the same velocity, and he also has a slower low-70s curve with three-quarter shape to it.
The long and lanky southpaw has done a better job of finding the strike zone compared to last year while continuing to post high strikeout rates and certainly raised his profile with a string of strong postseason starts. His ceiling might be somewhat limited to a back-end starter, but it might not take him long to reach that either.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
