P | Athletics
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 2" 190 lbs | Age: 24
Draft: 2019 | Rd. 16, No. 487, Atlanta Braves | Paraclete HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 0 1 7.20 2 2 0 10 7 1.40
2024 7 9 5.01 25 24 0 127.2 92 1.23
2025 0 2 9.82 3 2 0 11 6 2.00
3 Seasons 7 12 5.51 30 28 0 148.2 105 1.30
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 2 0-1 7.20 10 7 1.40
2024 25 7-9 5.01 127.2 92 1.23
2025 3 0-2 9.82 11 6 2.00
3 Seasons 30 7-12 5.51 148.2 105 1.30
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
?

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2023 21 165 35 6 17.1 12.8 91.4 111.6 25.1 34.3 .281 .642 .414 .411 .458 45.7 14.9 4.3 7.20 7.82
2024 22 2027 414 40 9.7 7.4 89.5 113.6 25.4 37.2 .245 .452 .333 .323 .362 39.6 16.9 5.0 5.00 4.40
2025 23 186 42 5 11.9 9.1 88.5 109.5 26.3 38.1 .273 .483 .456 .364 .361 33.3 10.9 10.9 9.82 5.78
Player 2378 491 51 10.4 7.9 89.6 113.6 25.5 37.1 .250 .468 .350 .333 .369 39.5 16.3 5.4
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .245 .404 .315 .315 .368 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Estes relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(52.7%) ,
Sweeper
(15.6%) ,
Slider
(15.1%) ,
Changeup
(9.1%) ,
Sinker
(7.5%) ,


  •   
  •   
  •   

+ If Available Pitches Click to Video.


  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   
  •   

Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2023 28.6 71.4 34.3 22.9 14.3 40.0 22.9 37.1 14.3 8.6 5.7 25.7 14.3 31.4
2024 24.9 75.1 35.0 25.8 14.3 41.5 30.9 27.5 14.5 7.2 3.1 27.1 23.7 24.4
2025 26.2 73.8 45.2 14.3 14.3 64.3 14.3 21.4 23.8 2.4 0.0 40.5 11.9 21.4
Player 25.3 74.7 35.8 24.6 14.3 43.4 28.9 27.7 15.3 6.9 3.1 28.1 22.0 24.6
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.0 24.7 7.1 37.4 37.4 25.1 20.6 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2023 2.9 20.0 37.1 17.1 5.7 17.1 12.8
2024 3.4 16.9 39.6 20.8 9.4 9.7 7.4
2025 2.4 16.7 45.2 21.4 2.4 11.9 9.1
Player 3.3 17.1 39.9 20.6 8.6 10.4 7.9
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 4-Seam Fastball ATH R 98 91.0 17.1 -0.5 7.2ARM -0.2 16.0 0.2 7.2ARM -0.4
2025 Sinker ATH R 14 89.9 20.9 -4.7 14.7ARM -0.3 13.3 -5.9 14.7ARM -0.4
2025 Changeup ATH R 17 84.0 32.8 -0.2 14.2ARM 0.0 6.1 -2.0 14.2ARM -0.2
2025 Sweeper ATH R 29 76.9 42.0 -3.7 16.0GLV 0.6 4.5 -3.4 16.0GLV 2.1
2025 Slider ATH R 28 82.5 37.6 -1.3 5.8GLV -0.6 2.5 -0.8 5.8GLV 1.2
2024 Cutter OAK R 14 86.4 29.9 -0.4 3.8GLV 0.2 6.9 -1.4 3.8GLV 1.1
2024 4-Seam Fastball OAK R 1039 92.4 15.6 0.2 9.6ARM 2.3 16.6 0.9 9.6ARM 2.0
2024 Changeup OAK R 222 84.8 29.4 -2.5 14.6ARM 0.6 8.7 -3.8 14.6ARM 0.4
2024 Sweeper OAK R 396 78.2 38.9 -4.8 15.5GLV 0.3 6.1 -4.6 15.5GLV 1.4
2024 Slider OAK R 276 81.7 40.6 0.8 5.6GLV -1.4 0.3 1.4 5.6GLV 0.8
2024 Sinker OAK R 80 90.8 20.8 -4.2 15.3ARM 0.5 12.6 -5.4 15.3ARM 0.4
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 4-Seam Fastball -2.6 -3 98 52.7 28 .273 .773 .461 22.0 14.3 16.7 .193 .477 .349 31.6
2025 Sweeper -8.1 -2 29 15.6 11 .500 .625 .486 15.4 9.1 16.7 .367 .449 .410 25.0
2025 Slider -3.8 -1 28 15.1 8 .375 .875 .519 14.3 12.5 25.0 .306 .590 .375 57.1
2025 Changeup 2.0 0 17 9.1 4 .250 .250 .225 10.0 0.0 0.0 .213 .252 .203 25.0
2025 Sinker -0.4 0 14 7.5 4 .500 .500 .450 11.1 0.0 -- .522 .600 .493 25.0
2024 4-Seam Fastball 0.1 1 1,039 51.3 247 .256 .471 .339 17.6 13.0 10.6 .262 .521 .360 47.9
2024 Sweeper 0.8 3 396 19.5 123 .217 .367 .262 21.6 25.2 17.6 .165 .270 .199 20.0
2024 Slider -0.7 -2 276 13.6 94 .261 .435 .298 22.3 24.5 16.4 .260 .426 .298 41.4
2024 Changeup -3.1 -7 222 11.0 46 .357 .738 .500 20.8 13.0 16.7 .343 .653 .447 44.4
2024 Sinker -1.9 -2 80 3.9 30 .273 .545 .470 12.2 0.0 0.0 .233 .413 .391 27.3
2024 Cutter -11.4 -2 14 0.7 2 1.000 2.500 1.450 14.3 0.0 0.0 .508 1.287 .747 100.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 Changeup 16 84.0 99 16.4 2:00 2:30 -30
2025 4-Seam Fastball 96 91.0 93 17.3 1:00 12:45 15
2025 Sinker 14 89.9 93 19.7 1:00 1:45 -45
2025 Slider 28 82.5 33 6.5 10:30 9:15 75
2025 Sweeper 29 76.9 51 17.2 8:30 9:15 -45
2024 Changeup 222 84.8 99 17.1 1:45 2:15 -30
2024 Cutter 14 86.4 39 7.1 11:45 10:45 60
2024 4-Seam Fastball 1,037 92.4 92 18.8 1:15 1:00 15
2024 Sinker 80 90.8 92 19.8 1:15 1:45 -30
2024 Slider 274 81.7 36 6.9 9:00 8:30 30
2024 Sweeper 394 78.2 53 17.2 8:45 9:30 -45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
+ Show More Seasons
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
+ View Complete Spin Direction Leaderboard

Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
+ View Complete Arm Angle Leaderboard

Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2023 46 165 0 -1 -1 -2 -3
2024 542 2,027 10 3 -14 -5 -8
2025 55 186 1 -3 -2 -1 -6
Player 643 2,378 11 -2 -18 11 -17
+ View Complete Pitching Run Value Leaderboard
+ Show Leverage-Based Run Value

Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2023 165 51.5 70.6 78.3 33.8 55.6 46.7 59.6 52.7 28.7 6.1 80.0
2024 2,027 56.1 75.6 84.9 29.8 67.5 44.7 66.4 55.5 19.2 9.7 88.3
2025 186 51.1 75.8 83.3 26.4 79.2 43.5 54.5 51.6 17.7 9.1 88.2
Player 2,378 55.4 75.3 84.4 29.8 67.4 44.8 64.9 55.0 19.7 9.4 87.9
MLB 48.9 67.0 82.5 28.4 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2023 34 72 18
2024 29 38 10 3 69 8 14 30 41 8 92 6 62 23 78 15
2025 9 58 17
+ View Complete Percentile Rankings Leaderboard

Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2023 24.48 4 3.1 1 0 2 2 50.0
2024 23.81 23 26.0 -3 9 21 10 43.5
2025 21.26 4 2.0 2 2 4 0 0.0
Player 23.56 31 31.1 0 11 27 12 38.7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
+ View Standard Expected Home Runs

Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2023 4 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 2
2024 23 22 21 30 27 28 31 26 25 21 27 31 24 21 28 23 23 23 26 32 23 23 35 29 22 25 25 31 26 28 25
2025 4 1 2 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 4 3 5 1 2 4 0 0 4 0 0 3 1 3 0 3 4 3 3 2
Player 31 25 26 37 34 33 36 29 29 24 31 38 30 29 33 29 31 25 29 40 26 26 42 34 28 27 31 38 32 33 29
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
+ View Standard Expected Home Runs By Park
+ View Complete Expected Home Runs Leaderboard

Year to Year Changes

2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023
Results
BA .348 +.089 .259 -.027 .286
xBA .273 +.028 .245 -.036 .281
OBP .418 +.110 .308 -.054 .362
xOBP .360 +.064 .296 -.061 .357
SLG .696 +.223 .473 -.170 .643
xSLG .483 +.031 .452 -.190 .642
ISO .348 +.134 .214 -.143 .357
xISO .210 +.002 .208 -.153 .361
BABIP .316 +.042 .274 +.016 .258
wOBA .456 +.123 .333 -.081 .414
xwOBA .364 +.041 .323 -.088 .411
wOBACON .481 +.105 .376 -.086 .462
xwOBACON .361 -.001 .362 -.096 .458
BACON .381 +.067 .314 -.029 .343
xBACON .304 +.005 .299 -.038 .337
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 33.3 -6.3 39.6 -6.1 45.7
Avg Exit Velocity 88.5 -1.0 89.5 -1.9 91.4
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 38.1 +0.9 37.2 +2.9 34.3
Barrel % 11.9 +2.2 9.7 -7.4 17.1
Avg Launch Angle 26.3 +0.9 25.4 +0.3 25.1
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 71.8 -0.2 72.0 0.0 72.0
Attack Angle 11° 11° -2° 13°
Ideal Attack Angle % 61.8 +6.7 55.1 +10.2 44.9
Attack Direction -3° +1° -3° +1° -4°
Swing Path - Tilt 32° +1° 31° -3° 34°
Swing Length 7.2 -0.1 7.3 -0.2 7.5
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 90.9 -1.3 92.2 +0.2 92.0
Breaking Velocity 79.7 +0.1 79.6 +0.2 79.4
Offspeed Velocity 84.0 -0.8 84.8 -1.4 86.2
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 5 -35 40 +34 6
Popup % 14.3 0.0 14.3 0.0 14.3
Flyball % 45.2 +10.2 35.0 +0.7 34.3
Line Drive % 14.3 -11.5 25.8 +2.9 22.9
Groundball % 26.2 +1.3 24.9 -3.7 28.6
Pull % 64.3 +22.8 41.5 +1.5 40.0
Straight Away % 14.3 -16.6 30.9 +8.0 22.9
Opposite Field % 21.4 -6.1 27.5 -9.6 37.1
Weak Contact % 2.4 -1.0 3.4 +0.5 2.9
Pull Airball % 40.5 +13.4 27.1 +1.4 25.7
Topped Contact % 16.7 -0.2 16.9 -3.1 20.0
Under Contact % 45.2 +5.6 39.6 +2.5 37.1
Flare/Burner Contact % 21.4 +0.6 20.8 +3.7 17.1
Solid Contact % 2.4 -7.0 9.4 +3.7 5.7
HR/FB % 21.1 +5.2 15.9 -17.4 33.3
Popups 6 -53 59 +54 5
Flyballs 19 -126 145 +133 12
Line Drives 6 -101 107 +99 8
Groundballs 11 -92 103 +93 10
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 51.1 -5.0 56.1 +4.6 51.5
Out of Zone % 48.9 +5.0 43.9 -4.6 48.5
Edge % 43.5 -1.2 44.7 -2.0 46.7
Zone Swing % 75.8 +0.2 75.6 +5.0 70.6
Out of Zone Swing % 26.4 -3.4 29.8 -4.0 33.8
In Zone Contact % 83.3 -1.6 84.9 +6.6 78.3
Out of Zone Contact % 79.2 +11.7 67.5 +11.9 55.6
Whiff % 17.7 -1.5 19.2 -9.5 28.7
First Strike % 54.5 -11.9 66.4 +6.8 59.6
First Pitch Swing % 36.4 -2.9 39.3 +3.1 36.2
Swing % 51.6 -3.9 55.5 +2.8 52.7
Meatball Swing % 88.2 -0.1 88.3 +8.3 80.0
Meatball % 9.1 -0.6 9.7 +3.6 6.1
Zone Swing & Miss % 16.7 +1.6 15.1 -6.6 21.7
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 20.8 -11.7 32.5 -11.9 44.4
In Zone 95 -1,043 1,138 +1,053 85
Out of Zone 91 -798 889 +809 80
Edge 81 -826 907 +830 77
In Zone Swings 72 -788 860 +800 60
Out of Zone Swings 24 -241 265 +238 27
In Zone Swing & Misses 12 -118 130 +117 13
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 5 -81 86 +74 12
Basic
Pitches 186 -1,841 2,027 +1,862 165
PA 55 -488 543 +496 47
AB 46 -455 501 +459 42
Hits 16 -114 130 +118 12
Singles 8 -63 71 +66 5
Doubles 4 -30 34 +31 3
Triples 0 -2 2 +2 0
Home Runs 4 -19 23 +19 4
Walks 6 -21 27 +25 2
Strikeouts 6 -86 92 +85 7
K% 10.9 -6.0 16.9 +2.0 14.9
BB% 10.9 +5.9 5.0 +0.7 4.3
HBP 1 -9 10 +7 3
Batted Balls 42 -372 414 +379 35
Number of Fastballs 112 -1,021 1,133 +1,042 91
Number of Offspeed 17 -205 222 +192 30
Number of Breaking 28 -248 276 +248 28
+ Toggle Viewing All Player's Year to Year Stats

Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2023 Shades 46 .414 21 0 0.0 25 17 68.0
2024 Shades 542 .333 291 11 3.8 251 181 72.1
2025 Shades 55 .456 30 0 0.0 25 21 84.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2023 36 15.5 36.1% 0.0% 27 20.0 0.0% 0.0%
2024 515 15.0 48.7% 0.0% 285 18.2 4.2% 0.7%
2025 44 13.5 68.2% 0.0% 30 17.4 3.3% 0.0%

+ View Complete Pitch Tempo Leaderboard

Pitch Distribution