Hill was Arkansas' top prep prospect in 2018 and had top-three-rounds talent, but his steadfast Louisiana State commitment dropped him to the Cardinals in the 38th round. He worked just 21 2/3 innings in his first two college seasons because of elbow issues in 2019 and the shortened season in 2020, and lasted just 29 2/3 frames this spring before blowing out his elbow in April and requiring Tommy John surgery. His fastball life and command as well as his slider were inconsistent this spring, and scouts wonder if that's because he was hurt.
Hill operated in the upper 90s as a reliever last season and has flashed the ability to deal at 95-97 mph with a peak of 99 as a starter. He has possessed a plus changeup since his high school days and it presently arrives in the mid-80s with a lot of tumble. He has shown signs of transforming what had been a slurvy breaking ball into a nasty mid-80s slider that can be a plus offering at its best but was below average for much of 2021.
A former three-star quarterback recruit who had offers from mid-level college football programs, Hill is strong, physical and athletic at 6-foot-4 and 234 pounds. He throws strikes but still needs to fine-tune his command and has yet to prove he can maintain premium stuff over a full season of starts. If he can't, he offers closer upside as a reliever.
Hill was considered a top-three round talent coming out of the Arkansas high school ranks, but his commitment to Louisiana State pushed him to the end of the Draft and he headed to Baton Rouge. He had elbow issues as a freshman in 2019, the 2020 season was cut short, and then he ended up needing Tommy John surgery in '21, so he threw only 51 1/3 innings in college. The Rockies felt he was worth the risk, taking him in the second round of that year’s Draft and bringing him back slowly with a handful of innings in 2022. His 2023 was uneven, at best, and he dealt with some shoulder soreness, but he bounced back to show off some of his old electric stuff in the Arizona Fall League.
The Rockies feel that perhaps Hill has finally figured some things out in order for him to unlock his vast potential. The stuff is still elite, with a fastball that was flirting with triple digits and sitting in the upper-90s in the AFL, with a little more run than he’d shown previously in pro ball. His mid-80s tumbling changeup is easily a plus pitch and his slider has gotten back to being an above-average offering with some mechanical adjustments.
Hill’s command may never be pinpoint, but he made strides in that department thanks to more consistency in syncing up his lower half and being much more comfortable in his delivery. That also has allowed him to recover between outings more effectively, a key to keeping him healthy, especially as he tries to grow into a back-end bullpen role.
Ever since his high school days in Arkansas, Hill has teased with raw stuff. That continued when he went to Louisiana State, but he only amassed just over 50 innings in three years, with 2021 ending after seven starts because he needed Tommy John surgery. The Rockies saw potential first-round talent available in the second round and brought him aboard to rehab with them. He made it back at the end of the 2022 season, once again showing glimpses of what he could become.
Upon his return, Hill immediately showed off the premium stuff that made him a prospect. His fastball is in the mid-to-upper 90s, and he’s continuing to work on getting a little more run on the pitch. His changeup is still his best secondary, and it’s at least plus, a mid-80s offspeed offering with tumble that misses a ton of bats. The slider has been inconsistent, but it’s in there, with belief it can be at least an average pitch in time.
More than anything, Hill needs innings. The Rockies will continue to be cautious in the near term so he can get accustomed to the professional routine of being in a rotation. He has the chance to start, given his stuff, size and general feel for strike zone, but the first step will be getting him through a healthy season on the mound.
An intriguing high school prospect in Arkansas, Hill could have been an early-round pick in 2018, but had a strong commitment to Louisiana State. He had trouble staying on the mound there between elbow issues in 2019 and the pandemic in 2020. He looked poised to be a potential first-round pick in 2021, but blew out his elbow after seven starts and had Tommy John surgery. The Rockies felt his arm strength was worth the risk, taking him in the second round of last summer’s Draft and signing him for full slot.
Between the injury and the overall lack of innings, it’s hard to know exactly what kind of pitcher Hill might be. When he’s healthy, he’s shown off high-octane stuff, with a fastball that touched the upper 90s in relief work and the ability to sit comfortably in the mid-90s, touching 99, in a starting role. He’s always had an outstanding changeup, a mid-80s plus offspeed pitch that features a lot of tumble. Before he got hurt, he was making strides in tightening up his mid-80s slider, though he struggled executing it in 2021.
A very good athlete who could have been a college quarterback, Hill has a strong and athletic 6-foot-4 frame. He’s shown the ability to throw strikes in the past, but his command within the zone and proving he can maintain his stuff with a full workload will determine if he can start long-term. The Rockies were very pleased with how his rehab had gone, giving Hill high marks for his makeup and work ethic. They’re hopeful they might have a Walker Buehler-type of Tommy John recovery case on their hands.
Hill was Arkansas' top prep prospect in 2018 and had top-three-rounds talent, but his steadfast Louisiana State commitment dropped him to the Cardinals in the 38th round. He worked just 21 2/3 innings in his first two college seasons because of elbow issues in 2019 and the shortened season in 2020, and lasted just 29 2/3 frames this spring before blowing out his elbow in April and requiring Tommy John surgery. His fastball life and command as well as his slider were inconsistent this spring, and scouts wondered if that's because he was hurt, but the Rockies were willing to roll the dice on his upside, taking him in the second round and signing him for full slot at $1,689,500.
Hill operated in the upper 90s as a reliever in 2020 and has flashed the ability to deal at 95-97 mph with a peak of 99 as a starter. He has possessed a plus changeup since his high school days and it presently arrives in the mid-80s with a lot of tumble. He has shown signs of transforming what had been a slurvy breaking ball into a nasty mid-80s slider that can be a plus offering at its best but was below average for much of 2021.
A former three-star quarterback recruit who had offers from mid-level college football programs, Hill is strong, physical and athletic at 6-foot-4 and 234 pounds. He throws strikes but still needs to fine-tune his command and has yet to prove he can maintain premium stuff over a full season of starts. If he can't, he offers closer upside as a reliever.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2024
23.3
2
1.6
0
0
2
0
0.0
Player
23.3
2
1.6
0
0
2
0
0.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2024
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
Player
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here