P | Washington Nationals
Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 3" 215 lbs | Age: 27
Draft: 2021 | Rd. 12, No. 353, Washington Nationals | Cal Poly
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2025 1 1 2.31 5 5 0 23.1 20 1.11
2026 2 6 3.47 21 13 1 90.2 86 1.31
2 Seasons 3 7 3.24 26 18 1 114 106 1.27
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2025 5 1-1 2.31 23.1 20 1.11
2026 21 2-6 3.47 90.2 86 1.31
2 Seasons 26 3-7 3.24 114 106 1.27
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2025 26 417 67 2 3.0 2.0 88.2 113.0 7.7 25.4 .209 .280 .241 .265 .274 37.3 20.4 10.2 2.31 2.87
2026 27 1489 252 14 5.6 3.7 89.1 116.5 9.0 32.5 .252 .381 .300 .321 .365 40.9 22.5 10.7 3.47 4.34
Player 1906 319 16 5.0 3.3 89.0 116.5 8.7 31.0 .243 .360 .288 .310 .346 40.1 22.1 10.6
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .244 .407 .316 .316 .368 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Alvarez relies on 5 pitches.
Curveball
(30.8%) ,
Four Seamer
(27.9%) ,
Slider
(21.4%) ,
Sinker
(15.0%) ,
Changeup
(4.9%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2025 58.2 41.8 17.9 16.4 7.5 55.2 25.4 19.4 37.3 19.4 1.5 17.9 6.0 17.9
2026 50.0 50.0 18.3 26.2 5.6 46.4 32.9 20.6 30.6 15.5 4.0 15.9 17.5 16.7
Player 51.7 48.3 18.2 24.1 6.0 48.3 31.3 20.4 32.0 16.3 3.4 16.3 15.0 16.9
MLB 44.1 55.9 24.2 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.5 5.8 16.8 19.8 19.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2025 7.5 34.3 25.4 25.4 4.5 3.0 2.0
2026 4.0 40.1 20.2 24.2 5.6 5.6 3.7
Player 4.7 38.9 21.3 24.5 5.3 5.0 3.3
MLB 4.0 32.2 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Slider WSH L 318 84.1 40.5 2.9 1.5GLV -2.2 -2.2 3.7 1.5GLV -3.0
2026 Curveball WSH L 459 82.9 52.7 2.3 10.7GLV 3.9 -12.7 2.6 10.7GLV 2.6
2026 Sinker WSH L 224 91.8 26.5 4.2 13.9ARM -0.3 5.9 1.7 13.9ARM -1.4
2026 Changeup WSH L 73 86.2 31.5 0.7 15.0ARM 1.2 5.1 -0.3 15.0ARM 1.1
2026 4-Seam Fastball WSH L 415 92.3 18.2 -3.3 2.9ARM -3.3 13.8 -1.8 2.9ARM -5.1
2025 Changeup WSH L 22 85.2 33.2 1.0 15.2ARM 1.2 4.5 0.7 15.2ARM 1.0
2025 Slider WSH L 121 82.4 43.6 4.7 2.6GLV -1.6 -3.3 5.4 2.6GLV -1.4
2025 Curveball WSH L 113 82.4 51.3 0.2 10.8GLV 4.0 -10.7 1.0 10.8GLV 3.0
2025 Sinker WSH L 19 90.9 27.7 4.2 13.1ARM -1.3 5.6 1.9 13.1ARM -2.3
2025 4-Seam Fastball WSH L 142 91.3 19.1 -3.6 3.4ARM -3.1 13.6 -2.3 3.4ARM -4.7
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 Curveball 1.0 5 459 30.8 129 .175 .233 .218 32.5 41.9 25.7 .184 .242 .221 51.5
2026 4-Seam Fastball -0.1 0 415 27.9 107 .281 .449 .372 12.8 11.2 14.0 .313 .477 .393 35.9
2026 Slider -0.8 -3 318 21.4 77 .234 .438 .354 35.5 22.1 19.1 .248 .490 .377 36.2
2026 Sinker 0.9 2 224 15.0 55 .292 .333 .354 16.5 5.5 25.0 .342 .457 .391 48.9
2026 Changeup 1.8 1 73 4.9 14 .214 .214 .193 34.5 0.0 0.0 .163 .197 .158 7.1
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.4 1 142 34.1 31 .200 .360 .327 20.9 22.6 25.9 .242 .369 .346 44.4
2025 Slider 3.8 5 121 29.0 23 .091 .091 .148 34.6 17.4 40.0 .168 .229 .195 38.9
2025 Curveball -0.4 0 113 27.1 34 .226 .258 .278 13.0 23.5 12.3 .188 .231 .246 34.8
2025 Changeup -1.0 0 22 5.3 5 .200 .200 .360 25.0 0.0 0.0 .309 .343 .286 40.0
2025 Sinker 1.9 0 19 4.6 5 .250 .250 .320 0.0 20.0 50.0 .271 .297 .343 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Changeup 71 86.2 87 16.3 10:30 9:30 60
2026 Curveball 459 82.9 66 19.0 5:15 4:45 30
2026 4-Seam Fastball 415 92.3 76 13.5 11:00 11:30 -30
2026 Sinker 221 91.8 68 15.6 10:45 9:30 75
2026 Slider 318 84.1 23 4.6 5:15 5:15 0
2025 Changeup 20 85.2 82 16.5 10:30 9:15 75
2025 Curveball 112 82.4 61 17.6 5:15 4:45 30
2025 4-Seam Fastball 142 91.3 71 13.4 11:00 11:30 -30
2025 Sinker 18 91.0 63 14.4 10:45 9:45 60
2025 Slider 119 82.4 33 6.2 4:45 5:00 -15
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2025 98 417 9 1 -4 -1 5
2026 382 1,489 8 9 -5 -7 5
Player 480 1,906 17 10 -9 17 10
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2025 417 50.1 55.5 87.9 22.1 52.2 45.1 42.9 38.8 22.2 7.0 79.3
2026 1,489 44.3 61.7 89.4 30.2 49.6 36.7 53.1 44.1 25.7 6.6 71.7
Player 1,906 45.6 60.2 89.1 28.5 50.0 38.5 51.0 43.0 25.0 6.7 73.4
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.7 28.6 57.9 42.6 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2025 11 62 71 57
2026 66 51 67 70 35 16 58 73 38 45 54 48 22 80 29 85 35
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2025 21.81 1 0.2 1 2 0 0 0.0
2026 25.72 5 4.9 0 6 3 3 60.0
Player 25.07 6 5.1 1 8 3 3 50.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2025 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2026 5 4 4 6 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 7 6 7 3 3 4 5 6 4 4
Player 6 5 4 6 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 6 5 7 5 6 4 4 7 6 5 8 6 8 3 3 4 5 7 4 4
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025
Results
BA .233 +.049 .184
xBA .252 +.043 .209
OBP .320 +.044 .276
xOBP .339 +.041 .298
SLG .343 +.102 .241
xSLG .381 +.101 .280
ISO .110 +.053 .057
xISO .129 +.058 .071
BABIP .297 +.070 .227
wOBA .300 +.059 .241
xwOBA .321 +.056 .265
wOBAcon .332 +.093 .239
xwOBAcon .365 +.091 .274
BACON .311 +.072 .239
xBACON .339 +.067 .272
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 40.9 +3.6 37.3
Avg Exit Velocity 89.1 +0.9 88.2
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 32.5 +7.1 25.4
Barrel % 5.6 +2.6 3.0
Avg Launch Angle 9.0 +1.3 7.7
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.3 -0.2 72.5
Attack Angle 10° 10°
Ideal Attack Angle % 52.2 -0.9 53.1
Attack Direction -3° -2° -1°
Swing Path - Tilt 33° +2° 31°
Swing Length 7.4 0.0 7.4
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 92.1 +0.9 91.2
Breaking Velocity 83.4 +1.0 82.4
Offspeed Velocity 86.2 +1.0 85.2
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 14 +12 2
Popup % 5.6 -1.9 7.5
Flyball % 18.3 +0.4 17.9
Line Drive % 26.2 +9.8 16.4
Groundball % 50.0 -8.2 58.2
Pull % 46.4 -8.8 55.2
Straight Away % 32.9 +7.5 25.4
Opposite Field % 20.6 +1.2 19.4
Weak Contact % 4.0 -3.5 7.5
Pull Airball % 15.9 -2.0 17.9
Topped Contact % 40.1 +5.8 34.3
Under Contact % 20.2 -5.2 25.4
Flare/Burner Contact % 24.2 -1.2 25.4
Solid Contact % 5.6 +1.1 4.5
HR/FB % 10.9 +2.6 8.3
Popups 14 +9 5
Flyballs 46 +34 12
Line Drives 66 +55 11
Groundballs 126 +87 39
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 44.3 -5.8 50.1
Out of Zone % 55.7 +5.8 49.9
Edge % 36.7 -8.4 45.1
Zone Swing % 61.7 +6.2 55.5
Out of Zone Swing % 30.2 +8.1 22.1
In Zone Contact % 89.4 +1.5 87.9
Out of Zone Contact % 49.6 -2.6 52.2
Whiff % 25.7 +3.5 22.2
First Strike % 53.1 +10.2 42.9
First Pitch Swing % 24.3 +7.0 17.3
Swing % 44.1 +5.3 38.8
Meatball Swing % 71.7 -7.6 79.3
Meatball % 6.6 -0.4 7.0
Zone Swing & Miss % 10.6 -1.5 12.1
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 50.4 +2.6 47.8
In Zone 660 +451 209
Out of Zone 829 +621 208
Edge 546 +358 188
In Zone Swings 407 +291 116
Out of Zone Swings 250 +204 46
In Zone Swing & Misses 43 +29 14
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 126 +104 22
Basic
Pitches 1,489 +1,072 417
PA 382 +284 98
AB 335 +248 87
Hits 78 +62 16
Singles 54 +41 13
Doubles 16 +14 2
Triples 3 +3 0
Home Runs 5 +4 1
Walks 41 +31 10
Strikeouts 86 +66 20
K% 22.5 +2.1 20.4
BB% 10.7 +0.5 10.2
HBP 3 +2 1
Batted Balls 252 +185 67
Fastball Percent 42.9 +4.3 38.6
Offspeed Percent 4.9 -0.4 5.3
Breaking Percent 52.2 -3.9 56.1
Number of Fastballs 639 +478 161
Number of Offspeed 73 +51 22
Number of Breaking 777 +543 234
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2025 Shades 98 .241 83 0 0.0 15 9 60.0
2026 Shades 382 .300 275 29 10.5 107 65 60.7
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2025 137 14.1 64.2% 0.0% 72 17.7 12.5% 1.4%
2026 381 15.7 40.2% 1.8% 235 18.8 3.8% 6.8%

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Pitch Distribution