P | San Diego Padres
Bats/Throws: S/R | 6' 1" 185 lbs | Age: 27
Draft: 2017 | Rd. 6, No. 195, Chicago Cubs | Palm Desert (CA) HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 6 3 2.95 62 0 1 61 94 1.07
2025 4 5 3.45 77 0 3 73 108 1.16
2026 1 1 3.29 13 0 1 13.2 16 1.10
5 Seasons 11 9 3.46 169 0 5 164 239 1.21
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 62 6-3 2.95 61 94 1.07
2025 77 4-5 3.45 73 108 1.16
2026 13 1-1 3.29 13.2 16 1.10
5 Seasons 169 11-9 3.46 164 239 1.21
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2022 23 117 14 1 7.1 4.0 85.9 108.6 15.9 28.6 .244 .450 .386 .330 .442 35.7 32.0 12.0 3.18 4.49
2023 24 237 31 6 19.4 10.7 96.6 109.2 17.1 51.6 .317 .726 .426 .477 .599 71.0 23.2 21.4 6.75 11.69
2024 25 1003 134 7 5.2 2.8 89.2 109.8 17.5 35.8 .186 .286 .239 .253 .359 37.3 37.3 9.1 2.95 2.56
2025 26 1236 166 15 9.0 4.9 90.1 112.7 21.4 33.1 .182 .325 .295 .260 .357 39.2 35.5 8.9 3.45 2.76
2026 27 215 31 3 9.7 5.6 83.6 104.8 16.2 48.4 .216 .363 .266 .307 .378 38.7 29.6 13.0 3.29 3.72
Player 2808 376 32 8.5 4.6 89.6 112.7 19.0 36.7 .198 .346 .286 .281 .383 41.0 34.6 10.4
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .408 .315 .316 .369 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Estrada relies on 3 pitches.
Four Seamer
(63.3%) ,
Split Finger
(26.5%) ,
Slider
(10.2%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2022 28.6 71.4 28.6 35.7 7.1 35.7 14.3 50.0 7.1 7.1 14.3 28.6 7.1 35.7
2023 22.6 77.4 38.7 35.5 3.2 48.4 35.5 16.1 16.1 6.5 0.0 32.3 29.0 16.1
2024 35.1 64.9 31.3 25.4 8.2 35.8 40.3 23.9 17.9 14.9 2.2 17.9 25.4 21.6
2025 35.5 64.5 30.1 21.7 12.7 31.3 44.6 24.1 15.7 15.7 4.2 15.7 28.9 19.9
2026 32.3 67.7 32.3 25.8 9.7 29.0 35.5 35.5 9.7 12.9 9.7 19.4 22.6 25.8
Player 33.8 66.2 31.4 25.0 9.8 34.3 40.4 25.3 15.7 14.1 4.0 18.6 26.3 21.3
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.9 16.8 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2022 7.1 21.4 28.6 35.7 0.0 7.1 4.0
2023 0.0 16.1 16.1 32.3 16.1 19.4 10.7
2024 3.0 26.1 32.1 27.6 6.0 5.2 2.8
2025 1.8 24.1 35.5 23.5 6.0 9.0 4.9
2026 12.9 22.6 19.4 19.4 16.1 9.7 5.6
Player 3.2 23.9 31.1 25.8 7.4 8.5 4.6
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 4-Seam Fastball SD R 136 95.7 9.8 3.7 1.4ARM -5.9 20.2 4.1 1.4ARM -6.4
2026 Slider SD R 22 86.3 35.1 -0.4 7.0GLV 2.9 1.8 -0.3 7.0GLV 2.9
2026 Split-Finger SD R 57 81.9 33.7 -5.1 13.2ARM 2.7 7.0 -4.2 13.2ARM 1.5
2025 Slider SD R 247 88.5 31.9 -0.7 4.4GLV 0.4 3.1 -1.3 4.4GLV 0.1
2025 Split-Finger SD R 287 83.7 29.0 -6.1 10.9ARM 0.6 10.1 -7.0 10.9ARM -0.4
2025 4-Seam Fastball SD R 702 97.9 9.2 3.4 2.0ARM -5.4 19.6 3.8 2.0ARM -5.6
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 3.5 5 136 63.3 39 .152 .182 .220 30.3 25.6 29.4 .249 .434 .344 41.7
2026 Split-Finger -0.1 0 57 26.5 10 .111 .222 .195 56.3 60.0 26.1 .123 .145 .174 0.0
2026 Slider -7.2 -2 22 10.2 5 .500 1.250 .720 22.2 0.0 0.0 .157 .273 .286 50.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.3 2 702 56.8 177 .248 .438 .337 29.1 31.1 23.9 .206 .380 .297 44.7
2025 Split-Finger 1.7 5 287 23.2 76 .127 .169 .166 47.5 53.9 29.5 .109 .136 .146 23.3
2025 Slider -0.2 -1 247 20.0 49 .244 .578 .370 40.8 24.5 20.7 .216 .435 .307 36.4
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 4-Seam Fastball 136 95.7 99 19.8 12:15 12:15 0
2026 Split-Finger 56 81.9 99 15.1 1:30 2:15 -45
2026 Slider 22 86.3 44 7.9 10:15 9:00 75
2025 4-Seam Fastball 700 97.9 99 19.4 12:15 12:15 0
2025 Split-Finger 287 83.7 98 14.7 1:45 1:45 0
2025 Slider 247 88.5 42 5.4 10:30 9:45 45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2022 25 117 1 1 -1 -1 -1
2023 55 237 1 -1 -2 -2 -4
2024 251 1,003 9 10 -3 -4 11
2025 302 1,236 4 15 -8 -4 6
2026 54 215 4 2 0 -2 3
Player 687 2,808 18 25 -15 18 16
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2022 117 47.9 85.7 68.8 31.1 63.2 51.3 72.0 57.3 32.8 6.8 87.5
2023 237 50.2 72.3 80.2 23.7 60.7 42.2 65.5 48.1 24.6 8.0 89.5
2024 1,003 52.3 72.0 71.7 33.7 46.0 41.3 67.7 53.7 36.0 8.1 85.2
2025 1,236 50.3 70.3 72.8 33.4 48.8 45.6 64.2 51.9 34.9 6.6 79.3
2026 215 39.5 69.4 79.7 32.3 47.6 37.2 61.1 47.0 33.7 6.5 71.4
Player 2,808 50.1 71.6 73.2 32.5 49.0 43.3 65.6 52.1 34.3 7.3 82.4
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.5 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2022 90 62 69
2023 79 65 68
2024 82 79 62 80 96 92 43 39 94 96 99 33 87 62 10 76
2025 66 54 41 88 94 94 27 29 93 96 98 34 39 61 18 83
2026 71 22 94
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 -- 1 1.4 0 0 1 1 100.0
2023 24.73 4 4.5 -1 0 4 1 25.0
2024 25.38 4 3.7 0 2 2 2 50.0
2025 24.24 12 9.5 3 3 8 3 25.0
2026 23.10 1 0.4 1 0 1 0 0.0
Player 24.53 22 19.5 3 5 16 7 31.8
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2022 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1
2023 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 4
2024 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 4 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4
2025 12 12 6 9 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 8 10 13 10 8 11 9 11 10 9 11 11 12 9 7 7 10 12 9 7
2026 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Player 22 20 16 18 20 21 20 17 16 16 19 19 20 24 21 18 21 17 21 23 19 21 25 22 18 16 16 21 23 20 17
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022
Results
BA .174 -.042 .216 +.028 .188 -.091 .279 -.007 .286
xBA .216 +.034 .182 -.004 .186 -.131 .317 +.073 .244
OBP .283 -.008 .291 +.032 .259 -.170 .429 +.069 .360
xOBP .320 +.057 .263 .000 .263 -.195 .458 +.132 .326
SLG .283 -.107 .390 +.113 .277 -.328 .605 +.034 .571
xSLG .363 +.038 .325 +.039 .286 -.440 .726 +.276 .450
ISO .109 -.066 .175 +.086 .089 -.237 .326 +.040 .286
xISO .147 +.004 .143 +.043 .100 -.309 .409 +.202 .207
BABIP .241 -.062 .303 +.011 .292 -.004 .296 -.089 .385
wOBA .266 -.029 .295 +.056 .239 -.187 .426 +.040 .386
xwOBA .307 +.047 .260 +.007 .253 -.224 .477 +.147 .330
wOBAcon .305 -.116 .421 +.088 .333 -.177 .510 -.032 .542
xwOBAcon .378 +.021 .357 -.002 .359 -.240 .599 +.157 .442
BACON .267 -.087 .354 +.041 .313 -.074 .387 -.042 .429
xBACON .331 +.030 .301 -.021 .322 -.118 .440 +.073 .367
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 38.7 -0.5 39.2 +1.9 37.3 -33.7 71.0 +35.3 35.7
Avg Exit Velocity 83.6 -6.5 90.1 +0.9 89.2 -7.4 96.6 +10.7 85.9
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 48.4 +15.3 33.1 -2.7 35.8 -15.8 51.6 +23.0 28.6
Barrel % 9.7 +0.7 9.0 +3.8 5.2 -14.2 19.4 +12.3 7.1
Avg Launch Angle 16.2 -5.2 21.4 +3.9 17.5 +0.4 17.1 +1.2 15.9
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 70.9 +0.2 70.7 -0.4 71.1 -- -- -- --
Attack Angle -1° -1° 10° -- -- -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 57.1 +5.8 51.3 +0.3 51.0 -- -- -- --
Attack Direction +2° -1° +1° -2° -- -- -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 28° -1° 29° -2° 31° -- -- -- --
Swing Length 7.2 0.0 7.2 0.0 7.2 -- -- -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 95.7 -2.2 97.9 +0.7 97.2 +1.5 95.7 -1.0 96.7
Breaking Velocity 86.3 -2.2 88.5 -1.3 89.8 +7.0 82.8 +1.2 81.6
Offspeed Velocity 81.9 -1.8 83.7 +0.1 83.6 -3.4 87.0 +0.1 86.9
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 3 -12 15 +8 7 +1 6 +5 1
Popup % 9.7 -3.0 12.7 +4.5 8.2 +5.0 3.2 -3.9 7.1
Flyball % 32.3 +2.2 30.1 -1.2 31.3 -7.4 38.7 +10.1 28.6
Line Drive % 25.8 +4.1 21.7 -3.7 25.4 -10.1 35.5 -0.2 35.7
Groundball % 32.3 -3.2 35.5 +0.4 35.1 +12.5 22.6 -6.0 28.6
Pull % 29.0 -2.3 31.3 -4.5 35.8 -12.6 48.4 +12.7 35.7
Straight Away % 35.5 -9.1 44.6 +4.3 40.3 +4.8 35.5 +21.2 14.3
Opposite Field % 35.5 +11.4 24.1 +0.2 23.9 +7.8 16.1 -33.9 50.0
Weak Contact % 12.9 +11.1 1.8 -1.2 3.0 +3.0 0.0 -7.1 7.1
Pull Airball % 19.4 +3.7 15.7 -2.2 17.9 -14.4 32.3 +3.7 28.6
Topped Contact % 22.6 -1.5 24.1 -2.0 26.1 +10.0 16.1 -5.3 21.4
Under Contact % 19.4 -16.1 35.5 +3.4 32.1 +16.0 16.1 -12.5 28.6
Flare/Burner Contact % 19.4 -4.1 23.5 -4.1 27.6 -4.7 32.3 -3.4 35.7
Solid Contact % 16.1 +10.1 6.0 0.0 6.0 -10.1 16.1 +16.1 0.0
HR/FB % 10.0 -14.0 24.0 +14.5 9.5 -23.8 33.3 +8.3 25.0
Popups 3 -18 21 +10 11 +10 1 0 1
Flyballs 10 -40 50 +8 42 +30 12 +8 4
Line Drives 8 -28 36 +2 34 +23 11 +6 5
Groundballs 10 -49 59 +12 47 +40 7 +3 4
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 39.5 -10.8 50.3 -2.0 52.3 +2.1 50.2 +2.3 47.9
Out of Zone % 60.5 +10.8 49.7 +2.0 47.7 -2.1 49.8 -2.3 52.1
Edge % 37.2 -8.4 45.6 +4.3 41.3 -0.9 42.2 -9.1 51.3
Zone Swing % 69.4 -0.9 70.3 -1.7 72.0 -0.3 72.3 -13.4 85.7
Out of Zone Swing % 32.3 -1.1 33.4 -0.3 33.7 +10.0 23.7 -7.4 31.1
In Zone Contact % 79.7 +6.9 72.8 +1.1 71.7 -8.5 80.2 +11.4 68.8
Out of Zone Contact % 47.6 -1.2 48.8 +2.8 46.0 -14.7 60.7 -2.5 63.2
Whiff % 33.7 -1.2 34.9 -1.1 36.0 +11.4 24.6 -8.2 32.8
First Strike % 61.1 -3.1 64.2 -3.5 67.7 +2.2 65.5 -6.5 72.0
First Pitch Swing % 38.9 +2.8 36.1 -6.9 43.0 +8.5 34.5 -17.5 52.0
Swing % 47.0 -4.9 51.9 -1.8 53.7 +5.6 48.1 -9.2 57.3
Meatball Swing % 71.4 -7.9 79.3 -5.9 85.2 -4.3 89.5 +2.0 87.5
Meatball % 6.5 -0.1 6.6 -1.5 8.1 +0.1 8.0 +1.2 6.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 20.3 -6.9 27.2 -1.1 28.3 +8.5 19.8 -11.5 31.3
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 52.4 +1.2 51.2 -2.8 54.0 +14.7 39.3 +2.5 36.8
In Zone 85 -537 622 +97 525 +406 119 +63 56
Out of Zone 130 -484 614 +136 478 +360 118 +57 61
Edge 80 -483 563 +149 414 +314 100 +40 60
In Zone Swings 59 -378 437 +59 378 +292 86 +38 48
Out of Zone Swings 42 -163 205 +44 161 +133 28 +9 19
In Zone Swing & Misses 12 -107 119 +12 107 +90 17 +2 15
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 22 -83 105 +18 87 +76 11 +4 7
Basic
Pitches 215 -1,021 1,236 +233 1,003 +766 237 +120 117
PA 54 -250 304 +52 252 +196 56 +31 25
AB 46 -223 269 +45 224 +181 43 +22 21
Hits 8 -50 58 +16 42 +30 12 +6 6
Singles 5 -31 36 +6 30 +24 6 +3 3
Doubles 2 -7 9 +1 8 +6 2 +1 1
Triples 0 -1 1 +1 0 0 0 -1 1
Home Runs 1 -11 12 +8 4 0 4 +3 1
Walks 7 -20 27 +4 23 +11 12 +9 3
Strikeouts 16 -92 108 +14 94 +81 13 +5 8
K% 29.6 -5.9 35.5 -1.8 37.3 +14.1 23.2 -8.8 32.0
BB% 13.0 +4.1 8.9 -0.2 9.1 -12.3 21.4 +9.4 12.0
HBP 0 -3 3 +3 0 0 0 0 0
Batted Balls 31 -135 166 +32 134 +103 31 +17 14
Number of Fastballs 136 -566 702 +135 567 +368 199 +111 88
Number of Offspeed 57 -230 287 +88 199 +193 6 +4 2
Number of Breaking 22 -225 247 +10 237 +205 32 +5 27
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2022 Shifts 25 .386 18 2 11.1 7 3 42.9
2023 Shades 55 .426 34 0 0.0 21 7 33.3
2024 Shades 245 .236 144 3 2.1 101 40 39.6
2025 Shades 302 .295 177 1 0.6 125 105 84.0
2026 Shades 54 .266 29 0 0.0 25 22 88.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2022 14 18.6 7.1% 0.0% 26 20.3 0.0% 3.8%
2023 41 16.4 29.3% 0.0% 59 19.0 3.4% 0.0%
2024 225 17.3 6.2% 0.9% 153 19.8 0.7% 1.3%
2025 284 18.3 0.7% 1.1% 201 20.3 0.0% 1.0%
2026 52 18.6 0.0% 1.9% 33 19.6 0.0% 3.0%

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Pitch Distribution