P | San Diego Padres
Bats/Throws: S/R | 6' 1" 185 lbs | Age: 27
Draft: 2017 | Rd. 6, No. 195, Chicago Cubs | Palm Desert (CA) HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 6 3 2.95 62 0 1 61 94 1.07
2025 4 5 3.45 77 0 3 73 108 1.16
2026 1 1 7.71 5 0 0 4.2 7 1.07
5 Seasons 11 9 3.60 161 0 4 155 230 1.21
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 62 6-3 2.95 61 94 1.07
2025 77 4-5 3.45 73 108 1.16
2026 5 1-1 7.71 4.2 7 1.07
5 Seasons 161 11-9 3.60 155 230 1.21
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2022 23 117 14 1 7.1 4.0 85.9 108.6 15.9 28.6 .244 .450 .386 .330 .442 35.7 32.0 12.0 3.18 4.49
2023 24 237 31 6 19.4 10.7 96.6 109.2 17.1 51.6 .317 .726 .426 .477 .599 71.0 23.2 21.4 6.75 11.69
2024 25 1003 134 7 5.2 2.8 89.2 109.8 17.5 35.8 .187 .286 .239 .253 .359 37.3 37.3 9.1 2.95 2.56
2025 26 1236 166 15 9.0 4.9 90.1 112.7 21.4 33.1 .182 .325 .295 .260 .357 39.2 35.5 8.9 3.45 2.76
2026 27 81 9 2 22.2 10.5 84.0 103.6 12.1 44.4 .195 .359 .227 .308 .415 44.4 36.8 15.8 7.71 3.85
Player 2674 354 31 8.8 4.7 90.0 112.7 19.1 35.9 .197 .346 .286 .280 .384 41.2 35.1 10.4
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .243 .408 .315 .316 .369 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Estrada relies on 3 pitches.
Four Seamer
(66.7%) ,
Split Finger
(22.2%) ,
Slider
(11.1%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2022 28.6 71.4 28.6 35.7 7.1 35.7 14.3 50.0 7.1 7.1 14.3 28.6 7.1 35.7
2023 22.6 77.4 38.7 35.5 3.2 48.4 35.5 16.1 16.1 6.5 0.0 32.3 29.0 16.1
2024 35.1 64.9 31.3 25.4 8.2 35.8 40.3 23.9 17.9 14.9 2.2 17.9 25.4 21.6
2025 35.5 64.5 30.1 21.7 12.7 31.3 44.6 24.1 15.7 15.7 4.2 15.7 28.9 19.9
2026 33.3 66.7 22.2 33.3 11.1 11.1 66.7 22.2 0.0 33.3 0.0 11.1 33.3 22.2
Player 33.9 66.1 31.1 25.1 9.9 34.2 41.5 24.3 15.8 14.7 3.4 18.4 26.8 20.9
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.4 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2022 7.1 21.4 28.6 35.7 0.0 7.1 4.0
2023 0.0 16.1 16.1 32.3 16.1 19.4 10.7
2024 3.0 26.1 32.1 27.6 6.0 5.2 2.8
2025 1.8 24.1 35.5 23.5 6.0 9.0 4.9
2026 22.2 11.1 11.1 22.2 11.1 22.2 10.5
Player 2.8 23.7 31.6 26.3 6.8 8.8 4.7
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 4-Seam Fastball SD R 54 95.4 9.6 3.8 1.4ARM -5.6 20.6 4.5 1.4ARM -6.4
2026 Slider SD R 9 85.9 36.9 0.3 7.1GLV 2.9 0.4 0.8 7.1GLV 2.9
2026 Split-Finger SD R 18 80.8 34.9 -4.7 13.9ARM 3.8 7.3 -4.7 13.9ARM 2.4
2025 Slider SD R 247 88.5 31.9 -0.8 4.4GLV 0.4 3.1 -1.3 4.4GLV 0.0
2025 Split-Finger SD R 287 83.7 29.0 -6.2 10.9ARM 0.8 10.1 -7.1 10.9ARM -0.3
2025 4-Seam Fastball SD R 702 97.9 9.2 3.4 2.0ARM -5.4 19.6 3.8 2.0ARM -5.6
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 4-Seam Fastball 4.5 2 54 66.7 16 .071 .071 .144 37.9 37.5 46.2 .157 .336 .268 50.0
2026 Split-Finger -4.0 -1 18 22.2 3 .500 1.000 .650 50.0 33.3 16.7 .460 .518 .514 0.0
2026 Slider -2.4 0 9 11.1 -- -- -- 33.3 -- 0.0 -- -- -- --
2025 4-Seam Fastball 0.3 2 702 56.8 177 .248 .438 .337 29.1 31.1 23.9 .206 .380 .297 44.7
2025 Split-Finger 1.7 5 287 23.2 76 .127 .169 .166 47.5 53.9 29.5 .109 .136 .146 23.3
2025 Slider -0.2 -1 247 20.0 49 .244 .578 .370 40.8 24.5 20.7 .216 .435 .308 36.4
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 4-Seam Fastball 54 95.4 98 20.3 12:15 12:15 0
2026 Split-Finger 18 80.8 99 15.8 1:30 2:15 -45
2025 4-Seam Fastball 700 97.9 99 19.4 12:15 12:15 0
2025 Split-Finger 287 83.7 98 14.7 1:45 1:45 0
2025 Slider 247 88.5 42 5.4 10:30 9:45 45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2022 25 117 1 1 -1 -1 -1
2023 55 237 1 -1 -2 -2 -4
2024 251 1,003 9 10 -3 -4 11
2025 302 1,236 4 15 -8 -4 6
2026 19 81 1 1 0 -1 1
Player 652 2,674 15 25 -15 15 14
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2022 117 47.9 85.7 68.8 31.1 63.2 51.3 72.0 57.3 32.8 6.8 87.5
2023 237 50.2 72.3 80.2 23.7 60.7 42.2 65.5 48.1 24.6 8.0 89.5
2024 1,003 52.4 72.1 71.8 33.5 45.6 41.3 67.7 53.7 36.0 8.1 85.2
2025 1,236 50.5 70.0 72.8 33.5 48.8 45.6 64.2 51.9 34.9 6.6 79.3
2026 81 33.3 63.0 82.4 35.2 42.1 37.0 52.6 44.4 38.9 4.9 50.0
Player 2,674 50.6 71.5 73.0 32.6 48.7 43.6 65.6 52.3 34.5 7.3 82.5
MLB 48.8 67.0 82.5 28.4 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.4 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2022 90 62 69
2023 79 65 68
2024 82 79 62 80 96 92 43 39 93 96 99 33 87 62 10 76
2025 66 54 41 88 94 94 27 29 93 96 98 34 39 61 18 83
2026 72 94 32 13 48 67 20 88 77 90 90 18 6 35 24 92
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 -- 1 1.4 0 0 1 1 100.0
2023 24.73 4 4.5 -1 0 4 1 25.0
2024 25.38 4 3.7 0 2 2 2 50.0
2025 24.24 12 9.5 3 3 8 3 25.0
2026 -- 0 0.0 0 1 0 0 --
Player 24.60 21 19.1 2 6 15 7 33.3
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2022 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1
2023 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 4
2024 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 4 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4
2025 12 12 6 9 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 8 10 13 10 8 11 9 11 10 9 11 11 12 9 7 7 10 12 9 7
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Player 21 19 15 18 19 20 20 17 16 16 19 18 20 23 20 17 21 17 21 22 19 21 24 22 18 16 16 21 23 19 16
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022
Results
BA .125 -.091 .216 +.028 .188 -.091 .279 -.007 .286
xBA .195 +.013 .182 -.005 .187 -.130 .317 +.073 .244
OBP .263 -.028 .291 +.032 .259 -.170 .429 +.069 .360
xOBP .322 +.059 .263 .000 .263 -.195 .458 +.132 .326
SLG .188 -.202 .390 +.113 .277 -.328 .605 +.034 .571
xSLG .359 +.034 .325 +.039 .286 -.440 .726 +.276 .450
ISO .063 -.112 .175 +.086 .089 -.237 .326 +.040 .286
xISO .164 +.021 .143 +.043 .100 -.309 .409 +.202 .207
BABIP .222 -.081 .303 +.011 .292 -.004 .296 -.089 .385
wOBA .227 -.068 .295 +.056 .239 -.187 .426 +.040 .386
xwOBA .308 +.048 .260 +.007 .253 -.224 .477 +.147 .330
wOBAcon .244 -.177 .421 +.088 .333 -.177 .510 -.032 .542
xwOBAcon .415 +.058 .357 -.002 .359 -.240 .599 +.157 .442
BACON .222 -.132 .354 +.041 .313 -.074 .387 -.042 .429
xBACON .346 +.045 .301 -.021 .322 -.118 .440 +.073 .367
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 44.4 +5.2 39.2 +1.9 37.3 -33.7 71.0 +35.3 35.7
Avg Exit Velocity 84.0 -6.1 90.1 +0.9 89.2 -7.4 96.6 +10.7 85.9
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 44.4 +11.3 33.1 -2.7 35.8 -15.8 51.6 +23.0 28.6
Barrel % 22.2 +13.2 9.0 +3.8 5.2 -14.2 19.4 +12.3 7.1
Avg Launch Angle 12.1 -9.3 21.4 +3.9 17.5 +0.4 17.1 +1.2 15.9
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 71.5 +0.8 70.7 -0.4 71.1 -- -- -- --
Attack Angle +1° -1° 10° -- -- -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 57.1 +5.8 51.3 +0.3 51.0 -- -- -- --
Attack Direction +6° -1° +1° -2° -- -- -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 28° -1° 29° -2° 31° -- -- -- --
Swing Length 7.3 +0.1 7.2 0.0 7.2 -- -- -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 95.4 -2.5 97.9 +0.7 97.2 +1.5 95.7 -1.0 96.7
Breaking Velocity 85.9 -2.6 88.5 -1.3 89.8 +7.0 82.8 +1.2 81.6
Offspeed Velocity 80.8 -2.9 83.7 +0.1 83.6 -3.4 87.0 +0.1 86.9
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 2 -13 15 +8 7 +1 6 +5 1
Popup % 11.1 -1.6 12.7 +4.5 8.2 +5.0 3.2 -3.9 7.1
Flyball % 22.2 -7.9 30.1 -1.2 31.3 -7.4 38.7 +10.1 28.6
Line Drive % 33.3 +11.6 21.7 -3.7 25.4 -10.1 35.5 -0.2 35.7
Groundball % 33.3 -2.2 35.5 +0.4 35.1 +12.5 22.6 -6.0 28.6
Pull % 11.1 -20.2 31.3 -4.5 35.8 -12.6 48.4 +12.7 35.7
Straight Away % 66.7 +22.1 44.6 +4.3 40.3 +4.8 35.5 +21.2 14.3
Opposite Field % 22.2 -1.9 24.1 +0.2 23.9 +7.8 16.1 -33.9 50.0
Weak Contact % 22.2 +20.4 1.8 -1.2 3.0 +3.0 0.0 -7.1 7.1
Pull Airball % 11.1 -4.6 15.7 -2.2 17.9 -14.4 32.3 +3.7 28.6
Topped Contact % 11.1 -13.0 24.1 -2.0 26.1 +10.0 16.1 -5.3 21.4
Under Contact % 11.1 -24.4 35.5 +3.4 32.1 +16.0 16.1 -12.5 28.6
Flare/Burner Contact % 22.2 -1.3 23.5 -4.1 27.6 -4.7 32.3 -3.4 35.7
Solid Contact % 11.1 +5.1 6.0 0.0 6.0 -10.1 16.1 +16.1 0.0
HR/FB % 0.0 -24.0 24.0 +14.5 9.5 -23.8 33.3 +8.3 25.0
Popups 1 -20 21 +10 11 +10 1 0 1
Flyballs 2 -48 50 +8 42 +30 12 +8 4
Line Drives 3 -33 36 +2 34 +23 11 +6 5
Groundballs 3 -56 59 +12 47 +40 7 +3 4
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 33.3 -17.2 50.5 -1.9 52.4 +2.2 50.2 +2.3 47.9
Out of Zone % 66.7 +17.2 49.5 +1.9 47.6 -2.2 49.8 -2.3 52.1
Edge % 37.0 -8.6 45.6 +4.3 41.3 -0.9 42.2 -9.1 51.3
Zone Swing % 63.0 -7.0 70.0 -2.1 72.1 -0.2 72.3 -13.4 85.7
Out of Zone Swing % 35.2 +1.7 33.5 0.0 33.5 +9.8 23.7 -7.4 31.1
In Zone Contact % 82.4 +9.6 72.8 +1.0 71.8 -8.4 80.2 +11.4 68.8
Out of Zone Contact % 42.1 -6.7 48.8 +3.2 45.6 -15.1 60.7 -2.5 63.2
Whiff % 38.9 +4.0 34.9 -1.1 36.0 +11.4 24.6 -8.2 32.8
First Strike % 52.6 -11.6 64.2 -3.5 67.7 +2.2 65.5 -6.5 72.0
First Pitch Swing % 31.6 -4.5 36.1 -6.9 43.0 +8.5 34.5 -17.5 52.0
Swing % 44.4 -7.5 51.9 -1.8 53.7 +5.6 48.1 -9.2 57.3
Meatball Swing % 50.0 -29.3 79.3 -5.9 85.2 -4.3 89.5 +2.0 87.5
Meatball % 4.9 -1.7 6.6 -1.5 8.1 +0.1 8.0 +1.2 6.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 17.6 -9.6 27.2 -1.0 28.2 +8.4 19.8 -11.5 31.3
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 57.9 +6.7 51.2 -3.2 54.4 +15.1 39.3 +2.5 36.8
In Zone 27 -597 624 +98 526 +407 119 +63 56
Out of Zone 54 -558 612 +135 477 +359 118 +57 61
Edge 30 -533 563 +149 414 +314 100 +40 60
In Zone Swings 17 -420 437 +58 379 +293 86 +38 48
Out of Zone Swings 19 -186 205 +45 160 +132 28 +9 19
In Zone Swing & Misses 3 -116 119 +12 107 +90 17 +2 15
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 11 -94 105 +18 87 +76 11 +4 7
Basic
Pitches 81 -1,155 1,236 +233 1,003 +766 237 +120 117
PA 19 -285 304 +52 252 +196 56 +31 25
AB 16 -253 269 +45 224 +181 43 +22 21
Hits 2 -56 58 +16 42 +30 12 +6 6
Singles 1 -35 36 +6 30 +24 6 +3 3
Doubles 1 -8 9 +1 8 +6 2 +1 1
Triples 0 -1 1 +1 0 0 0 -1 1
Home Runs 0 -12 12 +8 4 0 4 +3 1
Walks 3 -24 27 +4 23 +11 12 +9 3
Strikeouts 7 -101 108 +14 94 +81 13 +5 8
K% 36.8 +1.3 35.5 -1.8 37.3 +14.1 23.2 -8.8 32.0
BB% 15.8 +6.9 8.9 -0.2 9.1 -12.3 21.4 +9.4 12.0
HBP 0 -3 3 +3 0 0 0 0 0
Batted Balls 9 -157 166 +32 134 +103 31 +17 14
Number of Fastballs 54 -648 702 +135 567 +368 199 +111 88
Number of Offspeed 18 -269 287 +88 199 +193 6 +4 2
Number of Breaking 9 -238 247 +10 237 +205 32 +5 27
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2022 Shifts 25 .386 18 2 11.1 7 3 42.9
2023 Shades 55 .426 34 0 0.0 21 7 33.3
2024 Shades 245 .236 144 3 2.1 101 40 39.6
2025 Shades 302 .295 177 1 0.6 125 105 84.0
2026 Shades 19 .227 11 0 0.0 8 8 100.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2022 14 18.6 7.1% 0.0% 26 20.3 0.0% 3.8%
2023 41 16.4 29.3% 0.0% 59 19.0 3.4% 0.0%
2024 225 17.3 6.2% 0.9% 153 19.8 0.7% 1.3%
2025 284 18.3 0.7% 1.1% 201 20.3 0.0% 1.0%
2026 16 18.6 0.0% 0.0% 10 19.6 0.0% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution