Casey Kelly
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 215LBS | Age: 35
Draft: 2008 | Rd: 1, #30, Boston Red Sox | Sarasota HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2016 0 3 5.82 10 1 0 21.2 7 1.71
2018 0 3 3.04 7 3 0 23.2 16 1.39
2024 0 0 5.06 2 0 1 5.1 4 1.13
5 Seasons 2 11 5.44 28 12 1 91 60 1.62
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2016 10 0-3 5.82 21.2 7 1.71
2018 7 0-3 3.04 23.2 16 1.39
2024 2 0-0 5.06 5.1 4 1.13
5 Seasons 28 2-11 5.44 91 60 1.62
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 25 201 45 2 4.4 3.6 89.8 108.2 3.5 51.1 .337 .559 .396 .409 .448 44.4 12.5 5.4 7.94 7.63
2016 26 376 86 9 10.5 8.8 88.6 111.8 12.0 33.7 .320 .552 .363 .395 .407 38.4 6.9 6.9 5.82 7.09
2018 28 354 82 4 4.9 3.8 91.2 109.4 13.9 29.3 .264 .438 .338 .315 .353 37.8 15.4 4.8 3.04 4.21
2024 34 78 16 1 6.3 4.8 88.4 109.1 21.9 25.0 .241 .435 .316 .292 .340 37.5 19.0 4.8 5.06 3.46
Player 1009 229 16 7.0 5.7 89.8 111.8 11.8 34.9 .296 .502 .357 .360 .390 39.3 12.0 5.7
MLB 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.5 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(25.6%) ,
Slider
(25.6%) ,
Changeup
(20.5%) ,
Sinker
(16.7%) ,
Curveball
(11.5%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2015 46.7 8.9 44.4 0.0 26.7 40.0 33.3 4.4 35.6 17.8 20.0 15.6 4.4 3.6
2016 45.3 16.3 30.2 8.1 25.6 43.0 31.4 3.5 34.9 20.9 22.1 5.8 10.5 8.8
2018 50.0 23.2 19.5 7.3 35.4 45.1 19.5 1.2 30.5 24.4 34.1 4.9 4.9 3.8
2024 37.5 37.5 12.5 12.5 37.5 31.3 31.3 0.0 31.3 43.8 18.8 0.0 6.3 4.8
Player 46.7 18.8 27.9 6.6 30.1 42.4 27.5 2.6 33.2 23.1 25.8 7.0 7.0 5.7
MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2024 Sinker CIN R 13 89.5 23.3 -0.1 13.8ARM 0.8 10.8 -3.5 13.8ARM -1.0
2024 Slider CIN R 20 84.8 34.3 -2.8 2.3GLV -1.7 3.7 -2.1 2.3GLV -2.8
2024 Curveball CIN R 9 80.1 49.1 -3.8 2.8GLV -2.3 -6.4 -3.5 2.8GLV -6.6
2024 Changeup CIN R 16 84.6 27.4 -3.1 14.1ARM 1.1 11.0 -6.1 14.1ARM -0.1
2024 4-Seam Fastball CIN R 20 90.9 16.3 -0.8 5.7ARM -0.4 17.0 1.3 5.7ARM -1.8
2018 Sinker SF R 57 91.1 22.8 -0.4 12.7ARM -1.9 11.1 -1.8 12.7ARM -2.0
2018 Changeup SF R 38 86.2 28.3 -1.9 15.3ARM 1.8 9.5 -2.8 15.3ARM 2.0
2018 Curveball SF R 87 81.6 50.4 -2.4 6.7GLV -0.3 -7.2 -2.4 6.7GLV -2.5
2018 Slider SF R 38 86.5 34.1 -1.9 2.5GLV -1.6 4.0 -2.2 2.5GLV -2.8
2018 4-Seam Fastball SF R 132 91.5 19.3 -2.3 4.8ARM -2.4 14.3 -1.4 4.8ARM -2.4
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2024 Slider -3.0 -1 20 25.6 2 .500 1.000 .625 36.4 0.0 0.0 .377 .489 .367 50.0
2024 4-Seam Fastball -2.2 0 20 25.6 7 .286 .714 .414 23.1 14.3 10.0 .285 .737 .420 33.3
2024 Changeup 2.7 0 16 20.5 4 .250 .250 .225 33.3 25.0 16.7 .192 .228 .176 33.3
2024 Sinker 4.1 1 13 16.7 7 .200 .200 .229 0.0 14.3 50.0 .212 .244 .252 40.0
2024 Curveball 2.2 0 9 11.5 1 .000 .000 .000 66.7 100.0 100.0 -- -- .000 --
2018 4-Seam Fastball 0.8 1 132 37.3 35 .250 .469 .339 20.9 14.3 18.5 .271 .495 .358 44.4
2018 Curveball 2.2 2 88 24.9 30 .214 .357 .227 24.4 20.0 20.0 .242 .327 .235 33.3
2018 Sinker -2.2 -1 57 16.1 19 .421 .474 .492 3.1 0.0 0.0 .302 .467 .331 42.1
2018 Slider 0.2 0 38 10.7 9 .143 .143 .256 45.0 33.3 21.4 .200 .238 .303 0.0
2018 Changeup -3.6 -1 38 10.7 10 .500 1.100 .665 32.0 20.0 25.0 .272 .650 .381 37.5
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2024 Changeup 16 84.6 98 17.7 1:30 2:00 -30
2024 4-Seam Fastball 20 90.9 89 17.2 1:00 12:45 15
2024 Sinker 13 89.5 87 17.5 1:00 1:45 -45
2024 Slider 20 84.8 23 3.6 12:00 10:15 105
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2012 135 501 -8 5 -4 -2 -9
2015 56 201 -4 0 -2 -1 -7
2016 99 365 0 3 -2 -2 -2
2018 103 353 3 -1 -1 -1 0
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 201 50.7 63.7 90.8 25.3 68.0 40.8 60.7 44.8 15.6 7.0 57.1
2016 376 46.3 71.8 87.2 31.7 79.7 39.6 49.0 50.3 14.8 6.1 87.0
2018 354 53.5 71.4 81.5 30.5 58.0 41.9 59.2 52.3 22.7 9.1 84.4
2024 78 51.3 72.5 82.8 36.8 50.0 46.2 66.7 55.1 27.9 9.0 85.7
Player 1,009 50.1 70.1 85.3 30.4 68.0 41.2 56.4 50.2 18.9 7.5 80.3
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.0 28.5 57.8 42.6 61.0 47.2 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2015 29 38 17
2016 17 24 23 4
2018 28 41 14 11
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2016 -- 1 3.3 -2 2 6 0 0.0
2018 22.9 3 3.3 0 3 1 2 66.7
2024 23.9 1 1.0 0 0 0 1 100.0
Player 23.1 5 7.6 -3 5 7 3 60.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2016 1 4 1 5 3 2 6 3 3 0 2 5 3 2 4 4 0 3 4 6 2 1 6 6 3 3 4 6 4 4 0
2018 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3
2024 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Player 5 9 5 9 7 6 10 8 6 4 6 11 8 6 8 8 4 7 8 10 7 5 11 11 7 7 8 10 9 8 4
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 91.4 90.6 -0.8
Offspeed Velocity 86.8 86.0 -0.8
Breaking Velocity 81.8 80.3 -1.5
Exit Velocity 89.8 88.6 -1.2
Launch Angle 3.5 12.0 8.5
Barrel % 4.4 10.5 6.1
Hard Hit % 44.4 38.4 -6.0
LA Sweet-Spot % 51.1 33.7 -17.4
xBA .337 .320 -0.017
BA .365 .326 -0.039
xwOBA .409 .395 -0.014
wOBA .396 .363 -0.033
xSLG .559 .552 -0.007
SLG .500 .489 -0.011
K% 12.5 6.9 -5.6
BB% 5.4 6.9 1.5
Swing % 44.8 50.3 5.5
Whiff% 15.6 14.8 -0.8
In Zone % 50.7 46.3 -4.4
Out of Zone % 49.3 53.7 4.4
Out of Zone Swing % 25.3 31.7 6.4
First Pitch Swing % 14.3 29.4 15.1
First Pitch Strike % 60.7 49.0 -11.7
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2016 Shifts 97 .362 59 6 10.2 38 11 28.9
2018 Shifts 103 .338 61 8 13.1 42 9 21.4
2024 Shades 21 .316 13 0 0.0 8 7 87.5
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2012 145 13.8 66.2% 0.7% 80 22.0 0.0% 5.0%
2015 52 14.7 51.9% 0.0% 44 20.3 22.7% 18.2%
2016 78 13.9 55.1% 1.3% 73 23.2 4.1% 12.3%
2018 95 15.0 49.5% 0.0% 56 21.7 0.0% 1.8%
2024 26 14.4 61.5% 0.0% 3 17.7 0.0% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution