It’s been a winding road for Johnson since he emerged as a very good college pitching prospect at Campbell in 2019. The Rays took him No. 40 overall that year, and after a big first full season in 2021, he needed Tommy John surgery the following year. He was sent to the Orioles in a three-team deal (the Astros got Trey Mancini) just before he went under the knife, so he rehabbed with his new organization and returned late in 2023. He looked more like his pre-injury self in 2024 when he was on the move again, as the O’s shipped him to the Phillies in the Gregory Soto deal at the Trade Deadline, then he moved from Double-A to Triple-A and made his big league debut last September.
Johnson’s 98 combined innings at all stops in 2024 was a career high and he started to regain sharpness in his four-pitch mix. He can run his fastball up to 98 mph, averaging 94.6 mph in the Minors last year according to Synergy, with good life up in the zone. He can miss a lot of bats with his mid-80s slider, but there’s still room to improve the pitch, and he’s worked on different grips to help tighten it up. He doesn’t throw his curve as much, mostly against lefties, but he can steal a strike with it and he has a changeup, though it’s his fourth pitch.
A former shortstop from his junior college days, Johnson brings solid athleticism to the mound and he should be able to be a reliable strike-thrower, especially the further removed from surgery he gets. He’s ready to help in the back of a big league rotation.
Johnson was a light-hitting shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) junior college before converting to pitching and transferring to Campbell, where he emerged as one of the more exciting pitching prospects in the 2019 Draft. Johnson became the then-highest drafted player in Campbell history when the Rays selected him 40th overall in ‘19, and two years later, he broke out at Single-A Charleston. But he made only seven starts in 2022 before requiring Tommy John surgery, and days before the operation was sent to Baltimore in the three-team deal that sent Trey Mancini to the Astros. He returned to make five rehab appearances down the stretch in ‘23, finishing the year at Double-A Bowie, and was logging healthy and productive innings back with Bowie in 2024 when he was sent to the Phillies in the Gregory Soto deal at the Trade Deadline.
Johnson turned heads pre-injury with a fastball that touched as high as 98 mph with hoppy life up in the zone. It's averaged 95 post-surgery and maintained that life. More elusive was the feel for his swing-and-miss slider, though with mid-80s velocity and late bite, it can still be a plus pitch. Johnson’s mid-80s curveball is less polished and used primarily against left-handed hitters, and a developing changeup remains his fourth pitch. Johnson was around the zone enough before the surgery and his athleticism suggests he will be able to find a way back to average control.
Johnson’s fluid mechanics and at least most of his stuff seemed to return without much complication in a small sample post-surgery, though the true impact of the operation and his relatively short track record should bear out better over a full season in 2024. He maintains the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter, though his age and placement on the 40-man roster could push Johnson into a bullpen role in the short term.
Johnson burst onto the scene after a change of scenery and a position change, transferring to Campbell University and transitioning from a light-hitting shortstop to one of the most exciting pitchers in the 2019 draft class. The Rays saw the upside and selected him 40th overall in ’19, making Johnson the highest-drafted player in Campbell history at the time, and watched him break out in 2021 at Single-A Charleston. He made only seven starts in 2022 before requiring Tommy John surgery, and days before undergoing the operation was sent to Baltimore in the three-team trade that sent Trey Mancini to the Astros. Johnson is expected to miss most of the 2023 campaign recovering and return healthy again for 2024, his age-25 season.
A late bloomer given his career trajectory, Johnson gained confidence on the mound as his first full season progressed, growing more comfortable with his impressive array of pitches. His best pitch is a fastball that touches 98 mph and sits in the mid-90s, with carry at the top of the zone. He also throws a swing-and-miss slider in the mid-80s, and a developing changeup and curveball he doesn’t yet throw for strikes as much as the slider. After excelling at Single-A down the stretch in ’21, Johnson posted a 3.00 ERA with 41-11 K/BB ratio in 7 starts at High-A in ’22 before the injury struck.
The Orioles have confidence he’ll continue his upward trajectory even after the significant layoff. They added him to their 40-man roster in November.
Once a light-hitting junior college shortstop, Johnson transferred to Campbell University with only six innings of collegiate pitching experience and burst onto the scene. He immediately showed two plus pitches and a delivery that one scouting director called the best in the 2019 Draft class, and the Rays made him the highest-drafted player in Campbell history at the time with the 40th overall selection. He debuted that summer, then began to break out in a big way during his 2021 return to game action. He made just seven starts in 2022 and was sent to the Orioles just days before Tommy John surgery in the three-team trade with the Astros and Rays that sent Trey Mancini to Houston.
Johnson always had the ingredients to succeed, including a fastball that touches 98 mph and sits in the mid-90s with carry at the top of the zone plus a swing-and-miss slider in the mid-80s that ticked up in velocity late last season. But he was bound to be a late bloomer due to his limited experience on the mound. So perhaps it’s unsurprising that he seemed to gain more confidence in and understanding of his arsenal, which also includes a changeup and a curveball, as his first full season progressed. Johnson continued to lean on his fastball but located it more consistently, and he more effectively threw his slider for strikes. In his final 11 starts for Single-A Charleston, Johnson posted a 1.63 ERA and held opponents to a .603 OPS while striking out 66 and walking only 14 in 49 2/3 innings.
Johnson’s step forward didn’t go unnoticed by the rest of the industry, as clubs often inquired about him in trade talks prior to the Mancini deal. He’s Rule 5 Draft-eligible following this season, with his elbow surgery leaving that part of his future up in the air. He has the athleticism and aptitude to become another high-end starter, though he’ll have to prove himself over a full season post-injury.
Johnson transferred to Campbell University after only pitching six innings during his first two collegiate seasons as a light-hitting shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) Junior College. He quite quickly displayed two potential plus pitches and a delivery that one scouting director called the best in the 2019 Draft class. His power stuff, athleticism on the mound and limited mileage as a pitcher intrigued the Rays, who made him the highest-drafted player in Campbell history (John Posey went 44th overall in 1986) by taking him with the 40th pick. He went right to work, making five scoreless starts for the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League Rays before finishing his professional debut with four starts in the Appalachian League.
Johnson’s fastball tops out at 98 mph and typically sits between 93-95, though he could maintain higher velocity as he gains more experience on the mound. He also features a swing-and-miss slider that flashes plus and plays off his fastball, clocking in in the mid-80s with late bite, along with a fading changeup and a loopy curveball with intriguing spin characteristics. He threw strikes in his pro debut, recording 16 strikeouts with only three walks in 17 innings, but his command and control need more work to reach his projections.
Johnson will still need time to refine his game, which should come as no surprise given how relatively new he is to pitching and how far he was from the Majors the last time he pitched in competitive game action. But he spent some time at the Rays’ alternate training site last September before reporting to their instructional league camp, giving the team some hands-on work with a prospect in whom it clearly sees promise. He has the athleticism and aptitude to develop into yet another high-upside arm for the Rays to push through their system.
A light-hitting shortstop who totaled just six innings on the mound in two college seasons at Louisburg (N.C.) JC, Johnson transferred to Campbell and showcased two potential plus pitches with a delivery that one scouting director called the best in the 2019 Draft. That power stuff, along with the limited mileage on Johnson’s right arm, put him firmly on the Rays' radar, and they made him the highest-drafted player in Campbell history -- surpassing John Posey, who went 44th overall in 1986 -- taking him with the No. 40 overall pick. He opened his pro debut with five scoreless starts in the Gulf Coast League and finished it as a member of Rookie-level Princeton’s rotation.
Johnson may be new to pitching, but his inexperience doesn’t show on the mound. His effortless arm action and delivery makes the ball come out of his hand very easily, with his fastball topping out at 98 mph and usually ranging from 93-95. Johnson’s plus slider plays nicely off his heater, registering in the mid-80s with late, swing-and-miss bite, and he’ll also mix in a loopy curveball and an average changeup with fading action.
As would be expected for a newcomer to the mound, Johnson still needs polish. He didn't dominate against so-so competition in the Big South Conference, in part because his control and command need work, but he has the athleticism and overall aptitude to make the needed adjustments.
Whether Johnson will become the highest pick ever out of Campbell -- surpassing John Posey, who went 44th overall in 1986 -- will depend in part on how comfortable teams are with spending an early choice on a pitcher with almost no previous history. He spent his first two college seasons at Louisburg (N.C.) JC as a light-hitting shortstop and worked just six innings on the mound as a sophomore.
After transferring to Campbell, he has showcased two potential plus pitches and what one scouting director called the best delivery in the 2019 Draft. Johnson has an effortless arm action and delivery, looking very natural on the mound despite his inexperience. The ball comes out of his hand so easily, with his fastball topping out at 98 mph and usually ranging from 91-95. His slider is his best secondary offering, a plus pitch in the mid-80s at its best but also still inconsistent.
As would be expected for a newcomer to the mound, Johnson still needs polish. His loopy curveball and his changeup are less reliable than his slider but can become at least average pitches with more experience. He hasn't dominated so-so competition in the Big South Conference, in part because his control and command need work, but he has the athleticism to make the needed adjustments.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2024
22.59
1
1.0
0
0
0
1
100.0
Player
22.59
1
1.0
0
0
0
1
100.0
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2024
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Player
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
PHI
