P | St. Louis Cardinals
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 4" 180 lbs | Age: 31
Draft: 2017 | Rd. 8, No. 229, Tampa Bay Rays | College of Idaho
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 0 0 11.25 8 0 0 8 11 2.63
2025 3 1 2.06 42 0 6 48 45 1.15
2026 3 4 3.43 45 0 26 44.2 47 1.19
5 Seasons 6 6 3.50 97 1 32 103 106 1.32
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 8 0-0 11.25 8 11 2.63
2025 42 3-1 2.06 48 45 1.15
2026 45 3-4 3.43 44.2 47 1.19
5 Seasons 97 6-6 3.50 103 106 1.32
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 26 42 4 2 50.0 22.2 88.8 111.5 -9.5 50.0 .333 1.100 .676 .624 .885 50.0 22.2 33.3 13.50 28.84
2022 27 23 3 0 0.0 0.0 98.5 105.1 -23.0 0.0 .135 .136 .315 .240 .170 66.7 20.0 20.0 0.00 2.31
2024 29 194 26 2 7.7 4.3 89.0 112.3 17.7 42.3 .282 .428 .467 .383 .437 42.3 23.9 17.4 11.25 6.35
2025 30 758 125 4 3.2 2.0 85.8 108.8 4.8 27.2 .234 .306 .270 .298 .318 34.4 22.6 11.1 2.06 3.66
2026 31 747 117 8 6.9 4.2 88.1 109.8 4.9 31.6 .237 .370 .288 .325 .371 38.5 24.5 9.4 3.42 4.45
Player 1764 275 16 5.9 3.5 87.3 112.3 5.6 30.5 .240 .356 .307 .324 .359 37.5 23.5 11.5
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .407 .315 .316 .369 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

O'Brien relies on 4 pitches.
Sinker
(60.2%) ,
Sweeper
(30.0%) ,
Slider
(8.8%) ,
Changeup
(1.0%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2021 50.0 50.0 25.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 75.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 0.0
2022 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2024 38.5 61.5 30.8 23.1 7.7 61.5 26.9 11.5 30.8 7.7 0.0 30.8 19.2 11.5
2025 55.2 44.8 15.2 24.0 5.6 37.6 36.0 26.4 23.2 26.4 5.6 14.4 9.6 20.8
2026 51.3 48.7 20.5 27.4 0.9 35.0 41.0 23.9 23.1 21.4 6.8 12.0 19.7 17.1
Player 52.4 47.6 18.9 25.1 3.6 38.2 38.5 23.3 23.3 23.6 5.5 14.9 14.9 17.8
MLB 44.1 55.9 24.2 24.6 7.1 37.5 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.5 5.8 16.8 19.7 19.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 22.2
2022 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2024 0.0 26.9 26.9 34.6 3.8 7.7 4.3
2025 11.2 36.0 16.8 27.2 4.0 3.2 2.0
2026 7.7 41.0 17.1 20.5 6.0 6.9 4.2
Player 8.4 38.2 17.5 24.4 4.7 5.9 3.5
MLB 4.0 32.3 25.0 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Slider STL R 64 91.1 28.7 -1.3 2.2GLV -1.2 4.2 -2.8 2.2GLV -1.5
2026 Sweeper STL R 225 83.4 43.6 5.8 15.2GLV 1.3 -4.0 5.0 15.2GLV 1.5
2026 Sinker STL R 451 98.0 23.7 3.6 16.3ARM 1.1 4.8 2.8 16.3ARM 1.2
2026 Changeup STL R 7 90.9 27.9 -2.2 15.7ARM 1.5 5.3 -1.4 15.7ARM 1.4
2025 Sinker STL R 366 98.0 22.3 1.6 15.9ARM 0.7 6.1 1.3 15.9ARM 0.8
2025 Changeup STL R 1 90.4 28.9 -1.0 16.5ARM 1.8 4.4 -0.3 16.5ARM 2.0
2025 Sweeper STL R 161 83.4 41.8 3.7 16.7GLV 3.1 -2.3 3.2 16.7GLV 2.8
2025 Slider STL R 230 90.1 30.2 -0.6 3.7GLV 0.1 3.2 -1.4 3.7GLV -0.5
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 Sinker 0.8 3 451 60.4 124 .275 .349 .334 19.3 18.5 19.8 .282 .409 .341 37.5
2026 Sweeper 1.1 2 225 30.1 47 .053 .053 .176 47.2 42.6 18.9 .109 .163 .231 22.2
2026 Slider -0.2 0 64 8.6 18 .214 .500 .347 22.6 22.2 21.1 .227 .612 .423 72.7
2026 Changeup -4.8 0 7 0.9 1 -- -- .700 100.0 0.0 0.0 -- -- .700 --
2025 Sinker 1.6 6 366 48.3 108 .228 .272 .289 10.8 12.0 16.7 .287 .362 .346 34.2
2025 Slider 0.6 1 230 30.3 48 .238 .357 .288 29.6 27.1 28.9 .243 .321 .277 35.5
2025 Sweeper 1.0 2 161 21.2 40 .059 .176 .186 50.7 47.5 23.2 .081 .139 .185 33.3
2025 Changeup -4.1 0 1 0.1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Sinker 441 98.1 81 17.5 1:30 2:30 -60
2026 Slider 64 91.1 23 4.7 12:00 10:30 90
2026 Sweeper 224 83.4 67 17.3 7:45 8:15 -30
2025 Sinker 366 98.0 85 17.5 1:30 2:30 -60
2025 Slider 230 90.1 24 5.0 11:15 10:00 75
2025 Sweeper 161 83.4 67 18.2 8:00 8:30 -30
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 9 42 -2 0 0 0 -3
2022 5 23 0 0 0 0 0
2024 46 194 -2 -1 -2 -2 -7
2025 196 758 11 6 -4 -5 9
2026 190 747 11 7 -5 -8 5
Player 446 1,764 18 13 -11 18 5
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 42 33.3 71.4 90.0 28.6 25.0 33.3 66.7 42.9 38.9 4.8 50.0
2022 23 56.5 76.9 80.0 10.0 100.0 43.5 60.0 47.8 18.2 8.7 100.0
2024 194 43.8 62.4 79.2 22.0 58.3 36.1 45.7 39.7 27.3 8.8 82.4
2025 758 47.1 63.3 88.5 28.9 50.0 46.0 61.9 45.1 24.6 6.5 81.6
2026 747 44.3 63.7 82.5 28.4 54.2 37.8 65.4 44.0 27.7 7.5 71.4
Player 1,764 45.4 63.7 84.9 27.7 52.1 41.1 61.8 44.0 26.4 7.1 77.0
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.7 28.6 57.9 42.6 61.2 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2021
2022
2024 89 17 93
2025 95 24 90
2026 67 63 71 44 33 94 30 62 27 68 63 35 61 49 87 80
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2021 22.48 2 1.7 0 0 1 1 50.0
2024 25.68 2 2.0 0 0 1 1 50.0
2025 24.63 2 1.4 1 0 1 1 50.0
2026 24.07 2 5.8 -4 2 5 2 100.0
Player 24.21 8 10.9 -3 2 8 5 62.5
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2021 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2
2024 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
2025 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
2026 2 6 4 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 4 7 3 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 4 5 7 8 4 4 6 6 6 4 4
Player 8 12 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 8 11 8 13 12 11 13 13 12 13 9 10 12 14 10 10 10 12 12 9 9
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022 +/-   2021
Results
BA .217 +.021 .196 -.165 .361 -- -- -- -- -.083 .333
xBA .237 +.003 .234 -.048 .282 -- -- -- -- -.198 .333
OBP .332 +.019 .313 -.165 .478 -- -- -- -- -.156 .556
xOBP .352 +.006 .346 -.075 .421 -- -- -- -- -.247 .555
SLG .292 +.018 .274 -.365 .639 -- -- -- -- -1.083 1.333
xSLG .370 +.064 .306 -.122 .428 -- -- -- -- -.964 1.100
ISO .075 -.002 .077 -.201 .278 -- -- -- -- -1.000 1.000
xISO .133 +.060 .073 -.073 .146 -- -- -- -- -.766 .767
BABIP .292 +.038 .254 -.204 .458 -- -- -- -- +.333 .000
wOBA .288 +.018 .270 -.197 .467 -- -- -- -- -.361 .676
xwOBA .325 +.027 .298 -.085 .383 -- -- -- -- -.384 .624
wOBAcon .310 +.036 .274 -.313 .587 -- -- -- -- -.708 1.003
xwOBAcon .371 +.053 .318 -.119 .437 -- -- -- -- -.715 .885
BACON .304 +.038 .266 -.234 .500 -- -- -- -- -.167 .500
xBACON .338 +.020 .318 -.081 .399 -- -- -- -- -.319 .500
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 38.5 +4.1 34.4 -7.9 42.3 -- -- -- -- +16.7 50.0
Avg Exit Velocity 88.1 +2.3 85.8 -3.2 89.0 -- -- -- -- +9.7 88.8
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 31.6 +4.4 27.2 -15.1 42.3 -- -- -- -- -50.0 50.0
Barrel % 6.9 +3.7 3.2 -4.5 7.7 -- -- -- -- -50.0 50.0
Avg Launch Angle 4.9 +0.1 4.8 -12.9 17.7 -- -- -- -- -13.5 -9.5
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 72.2 +1.8 70.4 +1.0 69.4 -- -- -- -- -- --
Attack Angle 10° +1° +2° -- -- -- -- -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 47.6 -1.0 48.6 +15.3 33.3 -- -- -- -- -- --
Attack Direction -1° -1° -- -- -- -- -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 33° 33° -1° 34° -- -- -- -- -- --
Swing Length 7.3 +0.1 7.2 +0.2 7.0 -- -- -- -- -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 98.0 0.0 98.0 +1.2 96.8 -- -- -- -- +0.5 91.9
Breaking Velocity 85.1 -2.2 87.3 +1.1 86.2 -- -- -- -- -1.0 79.1
Offspeed Velocity 90.9 +0.5 90.4 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 88.1
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 8 +4 4 +2 2 -- -- -- -- -2 2
Popup % 0.9 -4.7 5.6 -2.1 7.7 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Flyball % 20.5 +5.3 15.2 -15.6 30.8 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Line Drive % 27.4 +3.4 24.0 +0.9 23.1 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Groundball % 51.3 -3.9 55.2 +16.7 38.5 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Pull % 35.0 -2.6 37.6 -23.9 61.5 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Straight Away % 41.0 +5.0 36.0 +9.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- +25.0 75.0
Opposite Field % 23.9 -2.5 26.4 +14.9 11.5 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Weak Contact % 7.7 -3.5 11.2 +11.2 0.0 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Pull Airball % 12.0 -2.4 14.4 -16.4 30.8 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Topped Contact % 41.0 +5.0 36.0 +9.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Under Contact % 17.1 +0.3 16.8 -10.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Flare/Burner Contact % 20.5 -6.7 27.2 -7.4 34.6 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Solid Contact % 6.0 +2.0 4.0 +0.2 3.8 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
HR/FB % 8.3 -2.2 10.5 -14.5 25.0 -- -- -- -- -- 200.0
Popups 1 -6 7 +5 2 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Flyballs 24 +5 19 +11 8 -- -- -- -- -1 1
Line Drives 32 +2 30 +24 6 -- -- -- -- -1 1
Groundballs 60 -9 69 +59 10 -- -- -- -- +1 2
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 44.3 -2.8 47.1 +3.3 43.8 -- -- -- -- +23.2 33.3
Out of Zone % 55.7 +2.8 52.9 -3.3 56.2 -- -- -- -- -23.2 66.7
Edge % 37.8 -8.2 46.0 +9.9 36.1 -- -- -- -- +10.2 33.3
Zone Swing % 63.7 +0.4 63.3 +0.9 62.4 -- -- -- -- +5.5 71.4
Out of Zone Swing % 28.4 -0.5 28.9 +6.9 22.0 -- -- -- -- -18.6 28.6
In Zone Contact % 82.5 -6.0 88.5 +9.3 79.2 -- -- -- -- -10.0 90.0
Out of Zone Contact % 54.2 +4.2 50.0 -8.3 58.3 -- -- -- -- +75.0 25.0
Whiff % 27.7 +3.1 24.6 -2.7 27.3 -- -- -- -- -20.7 38.9
First Strike % 65.4 +3.5 61.9 +16.2 45.7 -- -- -- -- -6.7 66.7
First Pitch Swing % 35.1 +4.1 31.0 +4.9 26.1 -- -- -- -- +37.8 22.2
Swing % 44.0 -1.1 45.1 +5.4 39.7 -- -- -- -- +4.9 42.9
Meatball Swing % 71.4 -10.2 81.6 -0.8 82.4 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Meatball % 7.5 +1.0 6.5 -2.3 8.8 -- -- -- -- +3.9 4.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 17.5 +6.0 11.5 -9.3 20.8 -- -- -- -- +10.0 10.0
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 45.8 -4.2 50.0 +8.3 41.7 -- -- -- -- -75.0 75.0
In Zone 331 -26 357 +272 85 -- -- -- -- -1 14
Out of Zone 416 +15 401 +292 109 -- -- -- -- -18 28
Edge 282 -67 349 +279 70 -- -- -- -- -4 14
In Zone Swings 211 -15 226 +173 53 -- -- -- -- 0 10
Out of Zone Swings 118 +2 116 +92 24 -- -- -- -- -7 8
In Zone Swing & Misses 37 +11 26 +15 11 -- -- -- -- +1 1
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 54 -4 58 +48 10 -- -- -- -- -6 6
Basic
Pitches 747 -11 758 +564 194 -- -- -- -- -19 42
PA 192 -7 199 +153 46 -- -- -- -- -4 9
AB 161 -7 168 +132 36 -- -- -- -- -2 6
Hits 35 +2 33 +20 13 -- -- -- -- -1 2
Singles 27 +2 25 +17 8 -- -- -- -- +1 0
Doubles 6 +1 5 +3 2 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Triples 0 -1 1 0 1 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Home Runs 2 0 2 0 2 -- -- -- -- -2 2
Walks 18 -4 22 +14 8 -- -- -- -- -2 3
Strikeouts 47 +2 45 +34 11 -- -- -- -- -1 2
K% 24.5 +1.9 22.6 -1.3 23.9 -- -- -- -- -2.2 22.2
BB% 9.4 -1.7 11.1 -6.3 17.4 -- -- -- -- -13.3 33.3
HBP 10 +3 7 +6 1 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Batted Balls 117 -8 125 +99 26 -- -- -- -- -1 4
Fastball Percent 60.4 +12.1 48.3 +0.4 47.9 -- -- -- -- -7.0 54.8
Offspeed Percent 0.9 +0.8 0.1 +0.1 0.0 -- -- -- -- -21.4 21.4
Breaking Percent 38.7 -12.9 51.6 -0.5 52.1 -- -- -- -- +28.4 23.8
Number of Fastballs 451 +85 366 +273 93 -- -- -- -- -12 23
Number of Offspeed 7 +6 1 +1 0 -- -- -- -- -9 9
Number of Breaking 289 -102 391 +290 101 -- -- -- -- +2 10
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 9 .676 4 0 0.0 5 3 60.0
2022 Shifts 5 .315 2 1 50.0 3 3 100.0
2024 Shades 46 .467 26 0 0.0 20 15 75.0
2025 Shades 197 .270 114 0 0.0 83 42 50.6
2026 Shades 190 .288 93 0 0.0 97 31 32.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 14 16.5 28.6% 0.0% 7 21.4 0.0% 0.0%
2022 9 16.1 22.2% 0.0% 2 16.9 0.0% 0.0%
2024 35 15.5 28.6% 0.0% 54 17.7 3.7% 1.9%
2025 219 15.8 29.7% 0.9% 118 18.0 1.7% 0.0%
2026 186 16.9 18.8% 3.2% 127 18.8 0.8% 7.1%

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Pitch Distribution