P | St. Louis Cardinals
Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 4" 180 lbs | Age: 31
Draft: 2017 | Rd. 8, No. 229, Tampa Bay Rays | College of Idaho
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2024 0 0 11.25 8 0 0 8 11 2.63
2025 3 1 2.06 42 0 6 48 45 1.15
2026 3 3 3.73 31 0 18 31.1 32 1.21
5 Seasons 6 5 3.61 83 1 24 89.2 91 1.35
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2024 8 0-0 11.25 8 11 2.63
2025 42 3-1 2.06 48 45 1.15
2026 31 3-3 3.73 31.1 32 1.21
5 Seasons 83 6-5 3.61 89.2 91 1.35
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA xwOBAcon HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 26 42 4 2 50.0 22.2 88.8 111.5 -9.5 50.0 .333 1.100 .676 .624 .885 50.0 22.2 33.3 13.50 28.84
2022 27 23 3 0 0.0 0.0 98.5 105.1 -23.0 0.0 .136 .136 .315 .240 .170 66.7 20.0 20.0 0.00 2.31
2024 29 194 26 2 7.7 4.3 89.0 112.3 17.7 42.3 .282 .428 .467 .383 .437 42.3 23.9 17.4 11.25 6.35
2025 30 758 125 4 3.2 2.0 85.8 108.8 4.8 27.2 .233 .306 .270 .297 .318 34.4 22.6 11.1 2.06 3.64
2026 31 520 85 4 4.8 3.0 88.2 109.8 3.0 30.6 .242 .353 .286 .315 .360 38.8 24.1 8.3 3.73 4.04
Player 1537 243 12 5.0 3.1 87.2 112.3 5.0 30.0 .242 .348 .309 .320 .353 37.4 23.2 11.5
MLB 7.6 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.5 33.3 .243 .408 .316 .316 .369 37.1 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

O'Brien relies on 4 pitches.
Sinker
(57.9%) ,
Sweeper
(30.2%) ,
Slider
(11.0%) ,
Changeup
(1.0%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2021 50.0 50.0 25.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 75.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 0.0
2022 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2024 38.5 61.5 30.8 23.1 7.7 61.5 26.9 11.5 30.8 7.7 0.0 30.8 19.2 11.5
2025 55.2 44.8 15.2 24.0 5.6 37.6 36.0 26.4 23.2 26.4 5.6 14.4 9.6 20.8
2026 55.3 44.7 17.6 27.1 0.0 36.5 41.2 22.4 25.9 22.4 7.1 10.6 18.8 15.3
Player 53.9 46.1 17.7 24.7 3.7 39.1 38.3 22.6 24.3 24.3 5.3 14.8 14.0 17.3
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.1 24.6 7.1 37.4 37.3 25.1 20.7 17.6 5.8 16.8 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 22.2
2022 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2024 0.0 26.9 26.9 34.6 3.8 7.7 4.3
2025 11.2 36.0 16.8 27.2 4.0 3.2 2.0
2026 8.2 43.5 14.1 21.2 7.1 4.8 3.0
Player 8.6 38.7 16.5 25.1 4.9 5.0 3.1
MLB 4.0 32.3 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.6 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2026 Changeup STL R 5 90.2 28.2 -2.3 15.8ARM 1.6 5.6 -1.7 15.8ARM 1.3
2026 Slider STL R 57 91.3 28.5 -1.2 2.3GLV -1.2 4.2 -2.8 2.3GLV -1.6
2026 Sweeper STL R 157 83.7 43.1 5.6 15.7GLV 1.6 -3.8 4.9 15.7GLV 1.9
2026 Sinker STL R 301 98.3 23.7 3.4 16.5ARM 1.0 4.7 2.9 16.5ARM 1.2
2025 Changeup STL R 1 90.4 28.9 -1.0 16.5ARM 1.8 4.4 -0.3 16.5ARM 2.1
2025 Sinker STL R 366 98.0 22.3 1.6 15.9ARM 0.7 6.1 1.3 15.9ARM 0.8
2025 Slider STL R 230 90.1 30.2 -0.6 3.7GLV 0.1 3.2 -1.4 3.7GLV -0.5
2025 Sweeper STL R 161 83.4 41.8 3.7 16.7GLV 3.1 -2.3 3.2 16.7GLV 2.8
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2026 Sinker 0.4 1 301 57.9 88 .316 .380 .354 19.1 15.9 18.7 .301 .417 .347 36.4
2026 Sweeper 1.8 3 157 30.2 29 .000 .000 .100 52.3 51.7 20.0 .066 .090 .158 20.0
2026 Slider 1.0 1 57 11.0 15 .182 .273 .283 22.2 20.0 16.7 .205 .462 .387 77.8
2026 Changeup -8.2 0 5 1.0 1 -- -- .700 -- 0.0 0.0 -- -- .700 --
2025 Sinker 1.6 6 366 48.3 108 .228 .272 .289 10.8 12.0 16.7 .287 .362 .346 34.2
2025 Slider 0.6 1 230 30.3 48 .238 .357 .288 29.6 27.1 28.9 .242 .321 .276 35.5
2025 Sweeper 1.0 2 161 21.2 40 .059 .176 .186 50.7 47.5 23.2 .081 .139 .184 33.3
2025 Changeup -4.1 0 1 0.1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2026 Sinker 295 98.3 81 17.8 1:30 2:30 -60
2026 Slider 57 91.3 23 4.7 12:00 10:30 90
2026 Sweeper 156 83.7 67 17.6 7:45 8:15 -30
2025 Sinker 366 98.0 85 17.5 1:30 2:30 -60
2025 Slider 230 90.1 24 5.0 11:15 10:00 75
2025 Sweeper 161 83.4 67 18.2 8:00 8:30 -30
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 9 42 -2 0 0 0 -3
2022 5 23 0 0 0 0 0
2024 46 194 -2 -1 -2 -2 -7
2025 196 758 11 6 -4 -5 9
2026 133 520 8 3 -3 -5 4
Player 389 1,537 15 9 -9 15 4
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 42 33.3 71.4 90.0 28.6 25.0 33.3 66.7 42.9 38.9 4.8 50.0
2022 23 56.5 76.9 80.0 10.0 100.0 43.5 60.0 47.8 18.2 8.7 100.0
2024 194 43.8 62.4 79.2 22.0 58.3 36.1 45.7 39.7 27.3 8.8 82.4
2025 758 47.1 63.3 88.5 28.9 50.0 46.0 61.9 45.1 24.6 6.5 81.6
2026 520 42.9 67.3 84.0 31.6 52.1 37.3 67.7 46.9 28.3 7.3 81.6
Player 1,537 45.0 64.9 85.7 28.8 51.0 41.4 62.1 45.0 26.4 7.0 81.5
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.6 28.5 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.2
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Run Value Pitching
Year Pitching Fastball Breaking Off
Speed
xERA Fastball
MPH
Fastball
Spin
Curve
Spin
Avg
EV
Chase% Whiff% K% BB% Barrel% Hard-
Hit%
GB% Extension
2021
2022
2024 89 17 93
2025 95 24 90
2026 67 56 84 42 49 95 33 61 65 74 61 54 83 49 94 81
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2021 22.48 2 1.7 0 0 1 1 50.0
2024 25.68 2 2.0 0 0 1 1 50.0
2025 24.63 2 1.4 1 0 1 1 50.0
2026 22.85 1 3.5 -3 2 3 1 100.0
Player 24.06 7 8.5 -2 2 6 4 57.1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2021 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2
2024 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
2025 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
2026 1 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 2 5 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 2 3 4 5 1 2 4 4 3 2 2
Player 7 9 8 8 8 10 9 8 8 8 6 9 6 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 7 8 9 11 7 8 8 10 9 7 7
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2026 +/-   2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022 +/-   2021
Results
BA .235 +.039 .196 -.165 .361 -- -- -- -- -.083 .333
xBA .242 +.009 .233 -.049 .282 -- -- -- -- -.197 .333
OBP .326 +.013 .313 -.165 .478 -- -- -- -- -.156 .556
xOBP .337 -.009 .346 -.075 .421 -- -- -- -- -.247 .555
SLG .287 +.013 .274 -.365 .639 -- -- -- -- -1.083 1.333
xSLG .353 +.047 .306 -.122 .428 -- -- -- -- -.964 1.100
ISO .052 -.025 .077 -.201 .278 -- -- -- -- -1.000 1.000
xISO .111 +.038 .073 -.073 .146 -- -- -- -- -.766 .767
BABIP .313 +.059 .254 -.204 .458 -- -- -- -- +.333 .000
wOBA .286 +.016 .270 -.197 .467 -- -- -- -- -.361 .676
xwOBA .315 +.018 .297 -.086 .383 -- -- -- -- -.384 .624
wOBAcon .314 +.040 .274 -.313 .587 -- -- -- -- -.708 1.003
xwOBAcon .360 +.042 .318 -.119 .437 -- -- -- -- -.715 .885
BACON .321 +.055 .266 -.234 .500 -- -- -- -- -.167 .500
xBACON .339 +.021 .318 -.081 .399 -- -- -- -- -.319 .500
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 38.8 +4.4 34.4 -7.9 42.3 -- -- -- -- +16.7 50.0
Avg Exit Velocity 88.2 +2.4 85.8 -3.2 89.0 -- -- -- -- +9.7 88.8
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 30.6 +3.4 27.2 -15.1 42.3 -- -- -- -- -50.0 50.0
Barrel % 4.8 +1.6 3.2 -4.5 7.7 -- -- -- -- -50.0 50.0
Avg Launch Angle 3.0 -1.8 4.8 -12.9 17.7 -- -- -- -- -13.5 -9.5
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 71.8 +1.3 70.5 +1.1 69.4 -- -- -- -- -- --
Attack Angle 10° +1° +2° -- -- -- -- -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 45.7 -3.4 49.1 +15.2 33.9 -- -- -- -- -- --
Attack Direction -1° -- -- -- -- -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 33° 33° -1° 33° -- -- -- -- -- --
Swing Length 7.3 +0.1 7.2 +0.2 7.0 -- -- -- -- -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 98.3 +0.3 98.0 +1.2 96.8 -- -- -- -- +0.5 91.9
Breaking Velocity 85.7 -1.6 87.3 +1.1 86.2 -- -- -- -- -1.0 79.1
Offspeed Velocity 90.2 -0.2 90.4 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 88.1
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 4 0 4 +2 2 -- -- -- -- -2 2
Popup % 0.0 -5.6 5.6 -2.1 7.7 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Flyball % 17.6 +2.4 15.2 -15.6 30.8 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Line Drive % 27.1 +3.1 24.0 +0.9 23.1 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Groundball % 55.3 +0.1 55.2 +16.7 38.5 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Pull % 36.5 -1.1 37.6 -23.9 61.5 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Straight Away % 41.2 +5.2 36.0 +9.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- +25.0 75.0
Opposite Field % 22.4 -4.0 26.4 +14.9 11.5 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Weak Contact % 8.2 -3.0 11.2 +11.2 0.0 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Pull Airball % 10.6 -3.8 14.4 -16.4 30.8 -- -- -- -- -25.0 25.0
Topped Contact % 43.5 +7.5 36.0 +9.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Under Contact % 14.1 -2.7 16.8 -10.1 26.9 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Flare/Burner Contact % 21.2 -6.0 27.2 -7.4 34.6 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
Solid Contact % 7.1 +3.1 4.0 +0.2 3.8 -- -- -- -- 0.0 0.0
HR/FB % 6.7 -3.8 10.5 -14.5 25.0 -- -- -- -- -- 200.0
Popups 0 -7 7 +5 2 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Flyballs 15 -4 19 +11 8 -- -- -- -- -1 1
Line Drives 23 -7 30 +24 6 -- -- -- -- -1 1
Groundballs 47 -22 69 +59 10 -- -- -- -- +1 2
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 42.9 -4.2 47.1 +3.3 43.8 -- -- -- -- +23.2 33.3
Out of Zone % 57.1 +4.2 52.9 -3.3 56.2 -- -- -- -- -23.2 66.7
Edge % 37.3 -8.7 46.0 +9.9 36.1 -- -- -- -- +10.2 33.3
Zone Swing % 67.3 +4.0 63.3 +0.9 62.4 -- -- -- -- +5.5 71.4
Out of Zone Swing % 31.6 +2.7 28.9 +6.9 22.0 -- -- -- -- -18.6 28.6
In Zone Contact % 84.0 -4.5 88.5 +9.3 79.2 -- -- -- -- -10.0 90.0
Out of Zone Contact % 52.1 +2.1 50.0 -8.3 58.3 -- -- -- -- +75.0 25.0
Whiff % 28.3 +3.7 24.6 -2.7 27.3 -- -- -- -- -20.7 38.9
First Strike % 67.7 +5.8 61.9 +16.2 45.7 -- -- -- -- -6.7 66.7
First Pitch Swing % 38.3 +7.3 31.0 +4.9 26.1 -- -- -- -- +37.8 22.2
Swing % 46.9 +1.8 45.1 +5.4 39.7 -- -- -- -- +4.9 42.9
Meatball Swing % 81.6 0.0 81.6 -0.8 82.4 -- -- -- -- +50.0 50.0
Meatball % 7.3 +0.8 6.5 -2.3 8.8 -- -- -- -- +3.9 4.8
Zone Swing & Miss % 16.0 +4.5 11.5 -9.3 20.8 -- -- -- -- +10.0 10.0
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 47.9 -2.1 50.0 +8.3 41.7 -- -- -- -- -75.0 75.0
In Zone 223 -134 357 +272 85 -- -- -- -- -1 14
Out of Zone 297 -104 401 +292 109 -- -- -- -- -18 28
Edge 194 -155 349 +279 70 -- -- -- -- -4 14
In Zone Swings 150 -76 226 +173 53 -- -- -- -- 0 10
Out of Zone Swings 94 -22 116 +92 24 -- -- -- -- -7 8
In Zone Swing & Misses 24 -2 26 +15 11 -- -- -- -- +1 1
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 45 -13 58 +48 10 -- -- -- -- -6 6
Basic
Pitches 520 -238 758 +564 194 -- -- -- -- -19 42
PA 133 -66 199 +153 46 -- -- -- -- -4 9
AB 115 -53 168 +132 36 -- -- -- -- -2 6
Hits 27 -6 33 +20 13 -- -- -- -- -1 2
Singles 23 -2 25 +17 8 -- -- -- -- +1 0
Doubles 3 -2 5 +3 2 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Triples 0 -1 1 0 1 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Home Runs 1 -1 2 0 2 -- -- -- -- -2 2
Walks 11 -11 22 +14 8 -- -- -- -- -2 3
Strikeouts 32 -13 45 +34 11 -- -- -- -- -1 2
K% 24.1 +1.5 22.6 -1.3 23.9 -- -- -- -- -2.2 22.2
BB% 8.3 -2.8 11.1 -6.3 17.4 -- -- -- -- -13.3 33.3
HBP 5 -2 7 +6 1 -- -- -- -- 0 0
Batted Balls 85 -40 125 +99 26 -- -- -- -- -1 4
Fastball Percent 57.9 +9.6 48.3 +0.4 47.9 -- -- -- -- -7.0 54.8
Offspeed Percent 1.0 +0.9 0.1 +0.1 0.0 -- -- -- -- -21.4 21.4
Breaking Percent 41.2 -10.4 51.6 -0.5 52.1 -- -- -- -- +28.4 23.8
Number of Fastballs 301 -65 366 +273 93 -- -- -- -- -12 23
Number of Offspeed 5 +4 1 +1 0 -- -- -- -- -9 9
Number of Breaking 214 -177 391 +290 101 -- -- -- -- +2 10
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 9 .676 4 0 0.0 5 3 60.0
2022 Shifts 5 .315 2 1 50.0 3 3 100.0
2024 Shades 46 .467 26 0 0.0 20 15 75.0
2025 Shades 197 .270 114 0 0.0 83 42 50.6
2026 Shades 133 .286 63 0 0.0 70 17 24.3
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 14 16.5 28.6% 0.0% 7 21.4 0.0% 0.0%
2022 9 16.1 22.2% 0.0% 2 16.9 0.0% 0.0%
2024 35 15.5 28.6% 0.0% 54 17.7 3.7% 1.9%
2025 219 15.8 29.7% 0.9% 118 18.0 1.7% 0.0%
2026 100 17.2 17.0% 4.0% 91 18.9 1.1% 6.6%

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Pitch Distribution